A Luck Study?

mczet · Post by **mczet** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:09 am

Since the dice, their fairness, or lack thereof, come up from time to time, it occurred to me that this site has all the tools for a fairy landmark study. A study of dice, statistics, luck and trends.

You have the diceroller, you have more than a large enough base of people.

In summary, my idea would be...

Create a dice roller that will roll successive groups of 3 dice vs 1 dice. Enlist people to test their luck with it. If the world is controlled by statistics and nothing but statistics that all even out given enough time, then everyone will land within a fairly narrow median. Likely, most will, but a rather interesting study of the idea of luck will show itself through the amount of people outside of that median.

I'd also say that the dice roller should only allow people to go for groups of say 10 rolls at a time, and track that as well in order to examine the idea of whether luck, or lack of it, is more cyclical in some people than in others.

MeDeFe · Post by **MeDeFe** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:11 am

There is a plugin that will evaluate your dice rolls and tell you what the expected values are and by how much you're off.

Ishiro · Post by **Ishiro** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:20 am

I think he's talking more about a real physical test to determine if certain people consistantly "beat the odds".

alex_white101 · Post by **alex_white101** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:22 am

Ishiro wrote:I think he's talking more about a real physical test to determine if certain people consistantly "beat the odds".

yeah, me too. i think it could be interesting

mczet · Post by **mczet** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:29 am

Indeed, I thought I was pretty clear. Although this plug in sounds interesting (which would only confirm what I already know, that I have far below average luck), the real value would be to use the tools and people available to do a real stuck on luck and whether it's possible to really confirm that certain people are in fact lucky and certain people are not. Also to examine whether there this is cyclical, and how these cycles may or may not apply to people.

PerkinsRooster · Post by **PerkinsRooster** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 11:07 am

There is no such thing as 'luck', and therefore it is not cyclical.

Jafnhár · Post by **Jafnhár** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:01 pm

Isn't this dice site just enough for people? It is stated in the faq that Lack uses that site for his dices anyway.

mczet · Post by **mczet** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:02 pm

No such thing as luck....Ok, lets test it then. Put your cynicism where your mouth is.

joeyjordison · Post by **joeyjordison** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:04 pm

wat would be interested is if, for 1 day, lack installed a dice counter and it counted every single dice roll for the day and made a tally chart (or similar) for each number. at the end of the 1 day test the totals for which numbers were rolled would be released. we can then look at percentage attacker/defender dice rolls if the first test worked. that sort of official data would really dispell some of the rumours of 'biased dice'

PerkinsRooster · Post by **PerkinsRooster** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:12 pm

Fine, I'd participate.

For a person to be "unlucky", they would have to be what....cursed or something? And cursed by what? What kind of power would create "bad luck" and bestow it on the "unlucky"?

If we do 200,000 rolls and someone looks unlucky, all that means is their chances of having a better next 200,000 rolls is better than others. Nothing more, nothing less.

The wonders of reality...

Jafnhár · Post by **Jafnhár** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:22 pm

PerkinsRooster wrote:If we do 200,000 rolls and someone looks unlucky, all that means is their chances of having a better next 200,000 rolls is better than others.

Untrue.

PerkinsRooster · Post by **PerkinsRooster** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:37 pm

Because every roll is independent of the other, right?

joeyjordison · Post by **joeyjordison** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:01 pm

PerkinsRooster wrote:Fine, I'd participate.

For a person to be "unlucky", they would have to be what....cursed or something? And cursed by what? What kind of power would create "bad luck" and bestow it on the "unlucky"?

If we do 200,000 rolls and someone looks unlucky, all that means is their chances of having a better next 200,000 rolls is better than others. Nothing more, nothing less.

The wonders of reality...

i just think some large scale data from CC would help illustrate the point a bit more

PerkinsRooster · Post by **PerkinsRooster** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:14 pm

joeyjordison wrote:
PerkinsRooster wrote:Fine, I'd participate.

For a person to be "unlucky", they would have to be what....cursed or something? And cursed by what? What kind of power would create "bad luck" and bestow it on the "unlucky"?

If we do 200,000 rolls and someone looks unlucky, all that means is their chances of having a better next 200,000 rolls is better than others. Nothing more, nothing less.

The wonders of reality...

i just think some large scale data from CC would help illustrate the point a bit more

I'm for anything that stops people from going on and on about these mystical dice.

joeyjordison · Post by **joeyjordison** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:47 pm

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=377326#377326

i made a suggestion on it. don't know if its possible but check it out and voice opinions

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:47 pm

I try to make players feel better about streaks of luck here:

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 112#359112

If you really want to feel better and have the time to read it I'll point you toward http://www.random.org, the Background topics are especially interesting.

I think if you take the time to understand how the source generates the random numbers and the fact that the randomness of the numbers once generated can be analyzed and demonstrated to be "random" through a series of tests applied to the generated numbers, you might feel better.

Also, take a moment to imagine how the random numbers are used in this game. I imagine the random number generator is used to initially deploy armies on every map, select the color and territory named on each of the cards issued during a game. And of course, generate the dice rolls for attacks. Then think about the fact that all of these activities are going on at this site simultaneously and I should think you would be comforted by the unpredictability of it all, the "randomness" of it all.

I hope this helps, but experience tells me it won't help for some.

hulmey · Post by **hulmey** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:02 pm

Sumtimes the dice are good and sometimes they are bad....

I have noticed that when throwing with 2 dice against the defenders 1 die you have a 85% chance of losing !!!!!

And thats a fact

PerkinsRooster · Post by **PerkinsRooster** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 8:49 pm

hulmey wrote:Sumtimes the dice are good and sometimes they are bad....

I have noticed that when throwing with 2 dice against the defenders 1 die you have a 85% chance of losing !!!!!

And thats a fact

Really? I hope you've notified your local statistics department, they would be interested in that.

Aegnor · Post by **Aegnor** » Fri Apr 27, 2007 4:44 am

hulmey wrote:Sumtimes the dice are good and sometimes they are bad....

I have noticed that when throwing with 2 dice against the defenders 1 die you have a 85% chance of losing !!!!!

And thats a fact

Statistically you have exactly 83.1481% to win. (out of 540 possible dice combinations you win 449).

antjo · Post by **antjo** » Fri Apr 27, 2007 3:14 pm

the more you roll the dice, the closer you colme to the statistics
im quite sure about that