HA's 200th Tourney (Josko.ri Wins)

[Winged Cat]

First Nations Americas / Manual / Escalating / Unlimited / No Fog

Let's get some triple-digit-army stacks on triple-digit-army stacks action!

Also, skipping the quiz since I put my chances of getting the right answers, relative to someone who knows you (and there's always someone who knows you - at least a little bit - in this type of thing), as low enough that it's not even worth guessing.

[cjrieder]

HA, i'd like to request Peloponnesian War, No Spoils, Foggy for the 200th tourney, thanks! and thanks for the great touney!

[HighlanderAttack]

[quote="Winged Cat"]First Nations Americas / Manual / Escalating / Unlimited / No Fog

Let's get some triple-digit-army stacks on triple-digit-army stacks action!

Also, skipping the quiz since I put my chances of getting the right answers, relative to someone who knows you (and there's always someone who knows you - at least a little bit - in this type of thing), as low enough that it's not even worth guessing. [/quote


There was a life trivia tourney I ran where players might be able to learn something but of the three people that know me-on in cc life--they really do not know much on these questions and I will take it into consideration when grading--two of them have not even answered the quiz--if the person who knows me does the best because of knowing me I would give the second place person a chance at the bounty--maybe two bounties--just so everyone knows

[Visigoth]

I'd like to request Arms Race/flat rate/chained/foggy

[dcampeau]

Classic and Doodle manual.flat.fow.unlimited pls

[HighlanderAttack]

We will start tomorrow night with round 12 --did not have enough time to score the bounty and make the games tonight like I had hoped.


This gives a little longer to guess the bounty --you have until I announce a winner anyway

[reptile]

Bounty contest for one year premium --most points wins--u must send me a pm with the answers--do not post in the thread.

1. What date did I play my first arms race game ( worth one point )
2. What do I call a bad clueless player in multi player esc games--two words (worth one point)
3. What TV show did I get the two word name from and what is the characters name in the show from question two-(worth two points)
4. What sport am I currently coaching (worth one point) name the first sport I ever coached (worth another point)
5. Pick a number between 1-1000 if you fall into a range I have chosen you will get one point.( worth one point )
6. How many foes do I currently have-within ten of the exact answer gets a point and an exact answer gets an additional point
7. For a point name one state in the United states that I have been in--only name one( worth one point )
8. How many tourneys have I won as of today? ( worth one point )
9 Name the animal name I will use in my next fantasy football league as a team name-hint they are bad ass ( worth one point )
10. What do I have six state champion titles in? ( worth one point )

Tie breaker question--in case there is a tie in points give a number between 1 and 100--closest wins

All entries must be pm'd do not put answers in the thread or you are disqualified-- player that wins this contest plays me on arms race and if they win I will give them a one year premium-- you have about 46 hours to pm me with your answers--good luck

I spent entirely too long getting maybe 1 answer, so i gave up. (#2 and #3 i spent almost an hour going through your old games and couldnt find it)... but i am very interested to find out what the correct answers are. hopefully you will tell us

[HighlanderAttack]

so I fell asleep and woke up after midnight

instead of waiting another day I decided to go through and make the games

It is now 130

instructions to come out

I did not get a chance to review the bounty contest questions but I will do so tomorrow night

try to hold off on one game if you entered

also will have a few other bounties this round

[General Roy]

Game 10017783
Managed to turn a lost cause against [player]MoB Deadly[/player] to a win!

[JJ41375]

Advancing - Game 10017461

[MoB Deadly]

Geez barely made it, Past 3 rounds I feel like Ive lost 2 and won the third, I need to step my game up!

[reptile]

Do you happen to keep track of exactly how many players were entering each round? Just out of curiosity.

[gradybridges]

Advanced again-looking to KO somebody. Have 2 losses pm me for a game. Me loves random.

[Seaman Stain]

10017402

On to the next round.

[HighlanderAttack]

Do you happen to keep track of exactly how many players were entering each round? Just out of curiosity.

not really

but have posted most rounds

with make up games it would not be exact but pretty close

I also have all my spreadsheets so I could figure out--we lost about 18% each round give or take a few percentage points --someone actually has been keeping track and may respond to this

[HighlanderAttack]

working on my bounty questions now and will post another bounty soon as well

[agentcom]

edit: see below

[agentcom]

edit: see below

[agentcom]

OK, my curiosity got the best of me. Here are the numbers:

Players
round1: 2507
round2: 2057 -> 82% of round1
round3: 1687 -> 82% of round2
round4: 1398 -> 83% of round3
round5: 1147 -> 82% of round4
round6: 932 -> 81% of round5
round7: 776 -> 83% of round6
round8: 642 -> 82,73% of round7
round9: 543 -> 84,58% of round8
round10: 450 -> 82.87% of round9
round11: 385 -> 85.56% of round10
round12: 325 -> 84.42% of round11

Very interesting to me that the amount advancing per round is actually increasing. I suspect that there is something about skill differentials that allows more players to be knocked out early in the tournament, and as players' skill levels converge, we get closer to that theoretical elimination rate of 12.5%.

I do not believe that players joining different amounts of games per round is a factor. The reason is that if everybody played until they won, then 50% of players would join a game 2. 25% would join a game 3 and 12.5% would be eliminated. The same result as if everyone joined all 3 games. And, I suspect, the same amount no matter what permutations you do of players playing more or fewer games. (Except, of course, the permutation that has people not joining games even though they do not have a win).

Edited the posts above, but credit due to the original posters of these stats: [player]knubbel[/player] for rounds 1 through 7 and [player]general roy[/player] for rounds 8 and 9.

[agentcom]

Here's the a chart with trendline:

[reptile]

Wow, very detailed.

This is very interesting. i wonder how many rounds this should go if the numbers keep up like this... in the 100's i bet

[Evil Semp]

I advance to round 13.

Game 10017614

[agentcom]

Wow, very detailed.

This is very interesting. i wonder how many rounds this should go if the numbers keep up like this... in the 100's i bet

Assuming an 83% advancement rate, this tourney will be over around Round 42 (the answer to everything, right?).

The formula for it is: 2507 * (.83)^x=1. Solve for x.

My guess is that the "best fit" line would actually be better if it was logarithmic. I will predict that a logarithmic best fit line will approach .875. In English, that means that I predict the advancement rate will continue to increase and will be about 87.5% toward the end of the tourney.

[denominator]

Assuming an 83% advancement rate, this tourney will be over around Round 42 (the answer to everything, right?).

That is far too awesome.

[dcampeau]

i advance with game 10017619