yes. somewhere back in the middle of pages Incadenza did that i think. i'll try to find it.
First mentioned here...
by Incadenza
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So I've been playing around with eipi's 1v1 drop probability thingy, and I think you might have a bit of a problem for 1v1s. As it stands, the probabilities come out thusly ( please forgive the formatting):
Continent /Provinces /Held /Chance of Dropping
Br Windward 12 8 0.70%
Fr Windward 8 4 16.63%
Sp Windward 6 3 21.88%
Br Leeward 15 7 10.42%
Fr Leeward 9 4 20.96%
Sp Leeward 8 4 16.63%
That's four very (relatively speaking) high chances of dropping bonuses. Compare to the bonuses that are statistically relevant to the drop on Waterloo:
Continent /Provinces /Held /Chance of Dropping
Chasse 3 3 3.49%
Red Flags 4 3 9.58%
Blue Flags 4 3 9.58%
Also, compare to Gran Chaco on Triple Alliance (3.08%) or even Oceania on classic (.89%).
However, if you go through and bump up the # of ships required for all but the British Windward bonuses, you get this:
Continent /Provinces /Held /Chance of Dropping
Br Windward 12 8 0.70%
Fr Windward 8 5 5.54%
Sp Windward 6 4 7.10%
Br Leeward 15 8 3.91%
Fr Leeward 9 5 8.98%
Sp Leeward 8 5 5.54%
Those odds seems substantially fairer. Otherwise you run the risk of any 1v1 coming down to the drop and little else, which would be bad. I'm not sure what that should so to the actual bonuses (as the bonus calculation tools I have don't seem to be able to do build-a-bonus), but I suppoose at the very least French Windward, British Leeward, and Spanish Leeward could get bumped up one (I'd be disinclined to bump up French Leeward, as it still has the best chances for being dropped).
It's definitely something to chew on, as I can't imagine you'd want 1v1s on this to be essentially a crapshoot.
One solution was to require one of the flagships from each nation to be held also in order to have a bonus.
Then here...by incadenza proosing that the requirements for each bonus be increased by one or two
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Okay, I've had a different potential solution:
Keep the six commanders. All start neutral, say with 3's.
This leaves 55 starting terits.
All bonuses save British Windward require one additional army to take. The bonus amounts could be bumped up in one or two cases. This leaves you with:
Continent /Provinces /Held /Chance of Dropping
Br Windward 12 8 0.66%
Fr Windward 8 5 5.47%
Sp Windward 5 4 3.25%
Br Leeward 14 8 2.34%
Fr Leeward 8 5 5.47%
Sp Leeward 8 5 5.47%
The advantages are thus: with the 3 extra terits taken out of the drop, plus bumping the bonus requirements up a peg, there's a substantially lower chance for a 1v1 player to drop a bonus. Plus with the six commanders, there's 12 potential bonuses. (I suppose each commander could be tied to his fleet bonus for an additional +1 or +1 autodeploy, maybe, but that might take too much legend space to explain properly).
The drawback, of course, if that with 55 starting terits each player will begin with 18.
I know I'm being a pain in the ass about this, but this is one of those maps that I know I'll play a lot if it's good, giving me more than enough motivation to want to get the bonus structure just right.
then here...
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Visually I'm not wild about the dual-terit commanders, but I think they could really help the gameplay....
So with the dual commander terits, that puts the map up to 67 total terits. Okay, let's run through a few 1v1 drop scenarios (for the sake of brevity, I'll refer to the listed bonus structure as "cairns bonus" and my proposed "adding 1 terit to each bonus except british windward" concept as "inc bonus"):
A) No neutrals, cairns bonus -- 67 starting terits, 22 per player
Bonus/terits/required/odds
Br Windward 14 8 2.66%
Fr Windward 10 4 24.03%
Sp Windward 7 3 26.38%
Br Leeward 16 7 13.45%
Fr Leeward 10 4 24.03%
Sp Leeward 10 4 24.03%
Victory 2 2 10.45%
Royal Sovereign 2 2 10.45%
Bucentaure 2 2 10.45%
Algesiras 2 2 10.45%
Santissima Trinidad 2 2 10.45%
Principe de Asturias 2 2 10.45%
B) No neutrals, inc bonus -- 67 starting terits, 22 per player
Bonus/terits/required/odds
Br Windward 14 8 2.66%
Fr Windward 10 5 12.97%
Sp Windward 7 4 11.94%
Br Leeward 16 8 6.13%
Fr Leeward 10 5 12.97%
Sp Leeward 10 5 12.97%
Victory 2 2 10.45%
Royal Sovereign 2 2 10.45%
Bucentaure 2 2 10.45%
Algesiras 2 2 10.45%
Santissima Trinidad 2 2 10.45%
Principe de Asturias 2 2 10.45%
C) 1 neutral per commander, cairns bonus -- 61 starting terits, 20 per player
Bonus/terits/required/odds
Br Windward 13 8 1.44%
Fr Windward 9 4 20.94%
Sp Windward 6 3 21.89%
Br Leeward 15 7 10.50%
Fr Leeward 9 4 20.94%
Sp Leeward 9 4 20.94%
D) 1 neutral per commander, inc bonus -- 61 starting terits, 20 per player
Bonus/terits/required/odds
Br Windward 13 8 1.44%
Fr Windward 9 5 9.05%
Sp Windward 6 4 7.16%
Br Leeward 15 8 4.01%
Fr Leeward 9 5 9.05%
Sp Leeward 9 5 9.05%
E) both commander terits neutral, cairns bonus -- 55 starting terits, 18 per player
Bonus/terits/required/odds
Br Windward 12 8 0.66%
Fr Windward 8 4 16.60%
Sp Windward 5 3 15.62%
Br Leeward 14 7 7.53%
Fr Leeward 8 4 16.60%
Sp Leeward 8 4 16.60%
F) both commander terits neutral, inc bonus -- 55 starting terits, 18 per player
Bonus/terits/required/odds
Br Windward 12 8 0.66%
Fr Windward 8 5 5.47%
Sp Windward 5 4 3.25%
Br Leeward 14 8 2.34%
Fr Leeward 8 5 5.47%
Sp Leeward 8 5 5.47%
So, just looking at this, I'd say options A and B are out, even the steeper bonus requirements leave 10 bonuses with over 10% drop-chance. The problem with E and F is that, with each player starting with 18 terits, that might be a bit too much of a first-mover advantage.
C and D seem to be the best of both worlds: no commanders on the drop, the bonuses are a bit more manageable, and the first-mover is mitigated as much as possible. Of course, I prefer D, nothing over 10% (tho, to be fair, there's not a ton of difference between 9.05% and the 10.45% you see in options A and B), and with the dual-terit commanders, people will still be able to double up on all bonuses save British and Spanish Windward, meaning that with the commanders there'll be 16 bonuses in play, giving lots and lots of flexibility...
Furthermore, I'd put a potential commander neutral terit at only, say, 3 or 4...