So...If the dice are Truly Random

[Fruitcake]

When you attack 40 vs 10 it is not 40 vs 10 in dice terms. It is 3v2, 3v2, 3v2, 3v2 and so on again and again. Each time you have like 45% to loose both. Here is your streakyness. Loosing in 45% of the time 10 times in a row is an easy thing (and it will result in -20 armies, yikes).

Right, I think this sort of breakdown is sometimes forgotten.


--Andy

Is losing in 45% of the time 10 times in a row an easy thing? The argument has always been that this happens with a regularity one would not usually expect.

On that example, statistically speaking from the gambit odds calculator the defender is not defeated 9% of the time so it is within reason.

It can happen and it will happen 9 out of 100 times....

http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds?

So you are saying that to lose 10 3v2 battles in a row will happen 9% of the time? Because those are the odds I am looking for.

[Dako]

You are not the only subject of the rolls. There are thousands (I assume) or rolls made everyday. Someone rolls 10-0, other roll 0-10. It is all even. The dice are random, you cannot judge it. Yes, the 3v2 proportion doesn't have the best odds, but this is how the dice works in real life.

If you doubt it - check the dice stats.

[Fruitcake]

You are not the only subject of the rolls. There are thousands (I assume) or rolls made everyday. Someone rolls 10-0, other roll 0-10. It is all even. The dice are random, you cannot judge it. Yes, the 3v2 proportion doesn't have the best odds, but this is how the dice works in real life.

If you doubt it - check the dice stats.

I do check the dice odds regularly and they still show an incredible 'streakiness'. This is why I was asking what the odds are of losing 10 rolls on the bounce in a 3v2 dice roll. Now before some one says, they are the same each time, I know that! I am not stupid! But there is a statistical norm for this kind of thing and I warrant the dice on this site, and the streaky nature they show, falls outside of this norm.

Oh, and for the record, I am still at a negative on my stats and have yet to venture into positive territory.

[Doc_Brown]

conquer club are so purposely ignorant to their dice failings.
the original poster has it right.


just now, in a great lakes game, a stack of 41 vs 27 spread out like so:
4,8,1,1,1,1,1,1,7,1,1


i rolled this same set of combat TEN times with physical dice, and this how many armies the attacker had standing after winning each time:

27,26,20,14,31,21,19,26,20,23


what happened in CC? the attacker didn't even kill the defender. the defender ended with 3 armies spread 1,1,1.

not only is CC inaccurate, it's off by -17 from the worst outcome, and by -25.7 from the average outcome, and -34 from the best outcome.

i invite anyone to take their physical dice at home and roll these attacks and see how many they have left over each time after ALWAYS WINNING.

not on CC's messed up system though.

people are quitting because it's so unrealistic & well they should.

In case you're interested, the odds of the defender surviving that battle is 8.75%. So, on average, 1 out of every 11 or so times you roll that battle, you can expect to lose. You rolled it 10 times with physical dice and won all of them and rolled it once in CC and lost it. So, you lost 1 out of 11. Everything looks good to me!

[Agent 86]

gee, everyone is forgetting the dice gods..they determine the outcome. Make a sacrifice they want and "boom" great dice. No sacrifice, well you lose

Now, you ask me what sacrifice do I make? Can't answer that or I would give away the secret

[maasman]

Oh, and for the record, I am still at a negative on my stats and have yet to venture into positive territory.

It's a good thing there are people like me out there to balance your negative with some positive.

[karel]

the dice do suck

[SirSebstar]

the dice do suck

If they would, then everybody here would look much happier

[jammyjames]

The thing with the dice stats though is that they only show the average roll you have achieved.

[bigimg]http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/7161/battleout.jpg[/bigimg]

So you are telling me that in my past 5 games, i have made 6 assaults when i have had 3 men or over?? That sounds correct?

For every 3 vs 2 encounter it should be recorded in my dice stats... Explain to me please why it says i have only attacked 6 times?

[natty dread]

5 battles != 5 games

[Fruitcake]

Oh, and for the record, I am still at a negative on my stats and have yet to venture into positive territory.

It's a good thing there are people like me out there to balance your negative with some positive.

Indeed or what rank would you be???

[Tennisie]

More than the "luck" statistics, I would like to see the dice distribution plotted and compared to a normal bell shaped distribution - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation. This would tell me more about the "streakiness" we're seeing.

[maasman]

Oh, and for the record, I am still at a negative on my stats and have yet to venture into positive territory.

It's a good thing there are people like me out there to balance your negative with some positive.

Indeed or what rank would you be???

Rank has much less to do with dice and much more to do with map and gameplay selection, along with a solid strategy. Of course you know this, I'm just throwing it out there for the people that think it's the dice that are holding them back.

[willedtowin1]

Why is it everyone has an average roll of 3.5?
It would seem the averages for people would be at least slightly different.

I took a small sample size of 10 people from the "Who's online" list
and everyone of them was 3.5

Seems like there should truly be a fluctuation of the averages

This is something I have noticed for years and its always been 3.5 as an average for everyone.

[Tiberius Maximus]

one also wonders what is point of such a stat if everyone is 3.5 - just say such and give us more meaningful stats like average roll a specific per game per a player in a game etc

[King_Herpes]

Why is it everyone has an average roll of 3.5?
It would seem the averages for people would be at least slightly different.

I took a small sample size of 10 people from the "Who's online" list
and everyone of them was 3.5

Seems like there should truly be a fluctuation of the averages

This is something I have noticed for years and its always been 3.5 as an average for everyone.

3.5 x 10 = 35

$35 for Conquer Club Premium





ILLUMINATI CONFIRMED

[Thorthoth]

Why is it everyone has an average roll of 3.5?
It would seem the averages for people would be at least slightly different.

I took a small sample size of 10 people from the "Who's online" list
and everyone of them was 3.5

Seems like there should truly be a fluctuation of the averages

This is something I have noticed for years and its always been 3.5 as an average for everyone.

Why of all the stupid -!...
Ohhh... you're trolling.

[nikola_milicki]

I've been away for awhile, whats new with CC's dice, anything interesting or w/e?
From what I see first hand there were no improvements.. stacks still tank and 1s evolved into fkn terminators...

[riskllama]

you are up to date, nik.

[TeeGee]

I am account sitting for a friend in hospital.. his 43,000 stack into a 57,000 stack, objective to reduce it, result, advance 12,000

Why does that not happen in my own games?

[Dukasaur]

I am account sitting for a friend in hospital.. his 43,000 stack into a 57,000 stack, objective to reduce it, result, advance 12,000

Why does that not happen in my own games?

You're a sinner, and the Dice Gods don't love you.

[IcePack]

I am account sitting for a friend in hospital.. his 43,000 stack into a 57,000 stack, objective to reduce it, result, advance 12,000

Why does that not happen in my own games?

You're a sinner, and the Dice Gods don't love you.

True, I’d go down to 3 and there would still be 47,500 strong left

[betiko]

I am account sitting for a friend in hospital.. his 43,000 stack into a 57,000 stack, objective to reduce it, result, advance 12,000

Why does that not happen in my own games?

I don t have the odds calculator anymore but i think it s probably not unprobable.

[Agent 86]

last couple of months proves that defense kills attack..dice are a huge problem with CC. It's not even close to real dice.

[riskllama]

defence wins championships.