HA's 200th Tourney (Josko.ri Wins)

[HighlanderAttack]

How many people are left roughly, and how many rounds do you expect there to be? Don't rush to reply to this, its just out of interest.

Not sure how many players left as I have been too busy to work on any updates--I will let you know before the next round starts.

At least a year--not sure how many rounds 25 maybe?

[HighlanderAttack]

Win one game to advance

Play up to a total of three games

Read the rules please

[drunkmonkey]

Win one game to advance

Play up to a total of three games

Read the rules please

Rodion knows the rules, he's just being a nuisance to agentcom.

It's been said countless times, but you're doing a great job here HA. Thanks again.

[Suzy1]

1113213211

[agentcom]

I only played 1 round 3 game, but I was lucky enough to win it.

Does that mean I advance or not to round 4?

Haha well played.

[Linnick]

I know you are very busy I have not seen my name going into the 4th round I am Linnick and I won 2 games in round 2 thanks J

[morleyjoe]

I know you are very busy I have not seen my name going into the 4th round I am Linnick and I won 2 games in round 2 thanks J

Your name is on the list of remaining players.

Look here -http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=134927&start=2

[JDDC]

de original map shud remain..as its a trademark of risk game

Chief, if ur free maybe u could list who are in to round 4,
As for myself i cant recall if i played 2 or 3 games

James

[HighlanderAttack]

I know you are very busy I have not seen my name going into the 4th round I am Linnick and I won 2 games in round 2 thanks J

glad you won two games in round two--hope you won at least one in round three to advance

I will run a tour stats and post who is in so far without checking on disqualifications

I am moving so I won't be on cc but for an hour a day at the most so do not expect much from me over the next five days

[pechi]

April 1st never come!!!

I can't wait anymore!!

[moldy780]

im in

[ender516]

No, you're not.

[MonkeyBlueEyes]

round 4 here I come.

[ImperialDragon]

I'm excited I'm still in. Surprised I made it this far

[Z_Grade]

I'm far more surprised, I think it has to do with the 3 game rule.

[SirSebstar]

play up to 3, win one.. yea this tournament can last a long long while

[ender516]

It sure can. If I do the math on my own statistics as supplied by Map Rank, which states that I have at least a 40% win loss ratio playing 1v1, that means 60% of the time I will lose my first game and have to play a second, then I will lose 60% of those games and have to play a third, which I will lose 60% of the time. That sounds bad until you multiply it out: 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.216. So, since 1 - 0.216 = 0.784, based on my record, I have a 78.4% chance of making it to the next round. I can probably improve my odds by a judicious choice of map each time, since that 40% includes a lot of maps I have only played once.

To put it another way, anyone with a win-loss ratio of better than one minus the cube root of one-half, or roughly 20.6%, has an even chance of advancing.

[Kinnison]

It sure can. If I do the math on my own statistics as supplied by Map Rank, which states that I have at least a 40% win loss ratio playing 1v1, that means 60% of the time I will lose my first game and have to play a second, then I will lose 60% of those games and have to play a third, which I will lose 60% of the time. That sounds bad until you multiply it out: 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.216. So, since 1 - 0.216 = 0.784, based on my record, I have a 78.4% chance of making it to the next round. I can probably improve my odds by a judicious choice of map each time, since that 40% includes a lot of maps I have only played once.

To put it another way, anyone with a win-loss ratio of better than one minus the cube root of one-half, or roughly 20.6%, has an even chance of advancing.

...Against statistically random opponents.

Now think about meeting people who've been through the same winnowing process. Suppose EVERYONE in a round has a nominal 1v1 % of 60%? That throws this analysis out the window eventually. Also, any given 3-game sample is easily small enough for the RNG to play a major factor. I'm not saying your calculations are useless... just that they don't adequately express the probabilities anymore after, say, half a dozen rounds.

It won't last forever, but it will take QUITE some time to play out. HA was estimating about a year... I'm thinking 1 and a half to 2. Later rounds will be a BIT faster, but there's a practical limit on round speed, especially for the early, huge rounds.

[redhawk92]

how many players are advancing?

[drunkmonkey]

While we're waiting for April 1st, we can start side bets on the next round:

Over/Under
# of players to advance to round 5: 1800
# of players to ask how many players are advancing to round 5: 11
# of guesses before the first bounty riddle is solved: 2
# of players to post the correct answer to the bounty riddle after the correct answer has already been posted: 8
# of guesses to get to the "guess the number" winner: 27
# of people to guess "200" in the "guess the number" game: 6
# of "I know you're busy, but can you calculate this irrelevant statistic" posts: 9
# of new players trying to sign up: 3
# of players asking if they've advanced, because they somehow still don't get it: 4

[Kinnison]

While we're waiting for April 1st, we can start side bets on the next round:

Over/Under
# of players to advance to round 5: 1800
# of players to ask how many players are advancing to round 5: 11
# of guesses before the first bounty riddle is solved: 2
# of players to post the correct answer to the bounty riddle after the correct answer has already been posted: 8
# of guesses to get to the "guess the number" winner: 27
# of people to guess "200" in the "guess the number" game: 6
# of "I know you're busy, but can you calculate this irrelevant statistic" posts: 9
# of new players trying to sign up: 3
# of players asking if they've advanced, because they somehow still don't get it: 4

Unsure
Over
Unsure
Over
Unsure
Under
Over
Over
Over

[DJENRE]

What comes once in a minute, twice in a moment, but never in a thousand years?
I would say letter M

[SirSebstar]

What comes once in a minute, twice in a moment, but never in a thousand years?
I would say letter M

I think that riddle was for the last round

[denominator]

# of players to post the correct answer to the bounty riddle after the correct answer has already been posted: 8

What comes once in a minute, twice in a moment, but never in a thousand years?
I would say letter M

Awesome.

[agentcom]

While we're waiting for April 1st, we can start side bets on the next round:

Over/Under
# of players to advance to round 5: 1800
# of players to ask how many players are advancing to round 5: 11
# of guesses before the first bounty riddle is solved: 2
# of players to post the correct answer to the bounty riddle after the correct answer has already been posted: 8
# of guesses to get to the "guess the number" winner: 27
# of people to guess "200" in the "guess the number" game: 6
# of "I know you're busy, but can you calculate this irrelevant statistic" posts: 9
# of new players trying to sign up: 3
# of players asking if they've advanced, because they somehow still don't get it: 4

Over
Over
Over
Over
Over
Under
Over
Under
Under