I've played Risk in real life, unbelievable bad luck happens there too. Get over it.

I'm not denying that. Never did. I'm saying that it happens at far too great of a rate here. That is all and I shouldn't have to get over it.
So many people say things like "it happens at far too great a rate ...

... - question is how long is a good sample?
...

A reasonable sample of data would be in the tens of thousands of rolls.
Oh, I doubt you need that much. I'd be willing to put money on any test with reasonable odds that someone comes up with that covers 10 games. And I would also bet that 99% of ...

40kguy wrote:just lost 10 to 1

So what? Stuff happens. Prove it by making your hypothesis in advance and then accurately measure ALL your outcomes. This is just an anecdote.

The real problem that irks people is streakiness - the wild fluctuations in capricious luck that make it tough to know if your strategy is working. The effect on the psyche is this: a streak of wins is fun but a streak of losses when you're trying to follow a smart game strategy is just aggravating ...

The sort of response that I just got from this Woodruff fellow is exactly the sort of response that I am referring to. It is condescending, flippant, unhelpful, rude, ...
I do have to say, I think you are out of line here. I think Woodruff has been trying very hard to be polite and explain things ...

I just notified I got 8555555

Nice number, anyone wants to join?

An 8 followed by six fives? There must be something wrong, cause that should never happen.


Why that should never happen?
Sorry, crossing threads here.
In other discussions, people complain that things like 7v1 or 12v1 losing ...

ISN2 wrote:

I just notified I got Game 8555555

Nice number, anyone wants to join?

An 8 followed by six fives? There must be something wrong, cause that should never happen.

Here's some odds for you:

I just tracked a recent turn of mine, which had the following rolls, in order:
4-2-2
4-1-3
1-3-2
3-4-2
(yeah, it was a bad turn).
Anyway, the odds of getting this exact sequence is over 2 billion to 1!

rogower wrote:200,000-to-1 odds are fairly astronomical. Hell, 500-to-1 odds are fairly astronomical.

In a 3v1 roll, the odds of rolling 6-6-6, and then losing to a defending 6 are 1295:1, but I'll bet you've seen that happen with real dice in the board game. I wouldn't call that "fairly astronomical"

I calculate that losing 12v1, that is, losing all 12 armies on an attack against 1, is over 10 million to one.

Check your math. It's more like 67,000 to one (and by the way, losing 12v1 means losing 11 armies in one attack for this calculation; losing 12 in one attack has odds against of about ...

all week the dice have sucked. i just lost a a 12v2.


later this week i lost 12v1.

these dice suck for CC they need to do something about it, it fucking sucks.

what wrong? what wrong is that your cant accept that the dice are random and random can be anything

Just because most people are ...

I don't play FOW, so I won't speak to that, but as far as truces are concerned, Wolf puts it best. They are absolutely part of the game--choosing to make or not make them, hold or break them, lie or tell the truth, are all part of your strategy.

I could be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure that's not ...

My point is simple.

I do not know what the odds/chances are of me rolling 5v1 and losing then 4v1 losing again, then 3v1 and winning are, but I can assume they are less than 10/1 (10%). This situation (rolling 5v1 etc) happens a few times during a game but I can say truthfully that the same result ...

Here's a streak:
Just started a game, and I placed my guys so that I would have four 3v3 attacks against one territory. I "expect" to win the territory, and I also "expect" to lose 2 or 3 armies in the process.
Don't you know, I had four consecutive 3v2 rolls where I LOST 2 ARMIES (8 total with NO ...

I love reading these discussions.


Three discussion points for those that "know" there is a streakiness that screws them:

1. If you know this, you should be able to use it to your advantage.
2. Are you willing to put money on your claim? I'll bet you find a lot of takers.
3. Prove it ...

I don't play FOW, so I won't speak to that, but as far as truces are concerned, Wolf puts it best. They are absolutely part of the game--choosing to make or not make them, hold or break them, lie or tell the truth, are all part of your strategy. You telling me in a live game, when one guy has South ...

Re:

> 7v1 followed by
> 6v1 followed by
> 5v1 followed by
> 4v1 followed by
> 3v1 followed by
> 2v1 LOSE ALL
> THIS SHOULD NEVER LOSE.

Why the statement "SHOULD NEVER LOSE"?

If you believe that, then no one should ever win the mega-millions or powerball, as the odds of winning those are 10s of ...

Thanks for the nice reply Natty.

To the others--I'm a newb and I apologize-we all start somewhere, right? I'll try to do better in the future.

If you really believe this, why don't you change your gameplay to account for it?

This discussion comes out of an unfounded claim against me, that was officially rejected, but some points were raised that I thought would make for interesting discussion.

First off-- This is NOT about secret diplomacy. I fully agree that secret truces and the like spoil this game and are not ...

Thanks for the replies guys--I'm new to CQ, and I appreciate the insight.

But...

I have to say, everyone here seems a little overly sensitive. I've been playing Risk for over 30 years, and this is how the game is played. Sure, I proposed an "elimination truce", but so what? It's not a legally ...

Why is this a "bs truce"? As noted, he was off to a great start, and the only chance we had to win was to stop him together.

btw, it's also pretty clear from the dialog reported that there was nothing secret going on.

This is how you play the game.