Conquer Club

halrob64 wrote:Actually EW you were claiming that you had an investigative role alongside me being town cop a while back, that was when you followed Sonic or was it Ragian who visited me.
Now you are going down the road of oh by the way I am claiming to be the town cop so it cannot be hal.
Nice move but I think all intelligent people will see through that one

I am saying there's a small chance you are not real. I am not saying you aren't real period. If you survive two more nights you should be looked at.

You see ragian and sonic.
The above interchange between Halrob and extreme could be a mafia oon mafia game calibrated by extreme.
I'm not saying it is, but I'm putting my probability at 40% it is.

Only sonic so far of you two has contemplated this possibility in chat.
But then reverted to sonic and rag , it's one or the other of us.
I however put the probability of sonic and rag being a zero sum game down at 60%.

And to repeat myself and nauseum the probability of ew mafia 95%, and Halrob mafia 40%.

Does this not have any traction at all with either of you?
Shouldn't it?

No, I'm done arguing. I've stated my case. I don't know why EW MUST be scum, but I do know that Son!c is scum. It's futile anyway. One person listens, and that one person is everyone else's favourite scum because, apparently, it must be scummy if one couldn't play it out similarly themselves.

Moreover, we have a bunch of tag-alongs not reading, not writing, not participating to the extent that this game needs. Maybe everyone has an excuse. I know how life gets. Still, it's annoying for the rest, and it must be really annoying for Charle.

End this day. Lynch me or lynch Son!c (I prefer the latter, of course). If you make me survive this day, I'm protecting myself. No one has shown me faith enough to earn the good doctor's protection.

Ragian wrote:No, I'm done arguing. I've stated my case. I don't know why EW MUST be scum, but I do know that Son!c is scum. It's futile anyway. One person listens, and that one person is everyone else's favourite scum because, apparently, it must be scummy if one couldn't play it out similarly themselves.

Moreover, we have a bunch of tag-alongs not reading, not writing, not participating to the extent that this game needs. Maybe everyone has an excuse. I know how life gets. Still, it's annoying for the rest, and it must be really annoying for Charle.

End this day. Lynch me or lynch Son!c (I prefer the latter, of course). If you make me survive this day, I'm protecting myself. No one has shown me faith enough to earn the good doctor's protection.

OK you earned my vote

UnVote Extreme Ways
Vote Ragian

A natural reaction ( Chana) to an unreasonable post (ragian)

Still live in hope that wiser (than ragian) heads prevail within town.

The maximum probability that ragian can attain as being mafia to me is 40%.

A lynch vote on extreme 95% mafia is a proxy vote that rag is bad in this game. But it's still 40% as bad as mafia 60% as bad town now.

Loose Canon wrote:A natural reaction ( Chana) to an unreasonable post (ragian)

Still live in hope that wiser (than ragian) heads prevail within town.

The maximum probability that ragian can attain as being mafia to me is 40%.

A lynch vote on extreme 95% mafia is a proxy vote that rag is bad in this game. But it's still 40% as bad as mafia 60% as bad town now.

Loose I have no idea where you keep coming up with these probabilities and it is just making things confusing to me. As it stands I'm for lynching Sonic and if he turns up town or has a protective role then Rag would be next D3

I have to say I am a convert to mafia games, great fun, whatever the outcome its a good bunch of players apart from the folk that don't really engage

Finally.
Vote Ragian

hjelp wrote:Finally.
Vote Ragian

this is wolfy as f*ck

Loose Canon wrote:You see ragian and sonic.
The above interchange between Halrob and extreme could be a mafia oon mafia game calibrated by extreme.
I'm not saying it is, but I'm putting my probability at 40% it is.

Only sonic so far of you two has contemplated this possibility in chat.
But then reverted to sonic and rag , it's one or the other of us.
I however put the probability of sonic and rag being a zero sum game down at 60%.

And to repeat myself and nauseum the probability of ew mafia 95%, and Halrob mafia 40%.

Does this not have any traction at all with either of you?
Shouldn't it?

You are advertising with "40%" a world in which we have zero investigative roles, and 3 protective roles.

@Serial Killer, your task is to kill Sonic.

lol >Loose what a prawn

I'm not the hanging type but Loose is getting close to my vote

halrob64 wrote:I have to say I am a convert to mafia games, great fun, whatever the outcome its a good bunch of players apart from the folk that don't really engage

YESSS I'm too drunk to answer game related tonight but

One night werewolf is a great short game that only lasts 10 minutes each game to buy and play with 3+ friends.

And closest thing to mafia game on TV is the TV series traitors, I'd say.
That's got social deduction element but lacks the complexity.

But great you're playing and great you are in my faction - or are you?

We are in an extremely unusual situation here.
We are only in day 2, but we have lost two townies one of which had the jail keeper power role and 4 other players have claimed town power roles.

Jail keeper had both protective and investigative aspects to its role.
Extreme said he hadn't considered one of those aspects when another player pointed it out to him. That was a lie on extremes part, as most experienced player here extreme was fully aware of both the investigative and protective potential properties of the jail keeper role.

Of the 4 claimed town power roles I say only 2 (at most) are really town meaning the other 2 are mafia. Everyone with experience of mafia games and their balancing would agree that 3 power roles added to the already dead jail keeper would be too biased in favour of town.

So if of the four two are town and two are mafia, towns conundrum is which two are which?

To any of the 4 who are genuinely town, 2 of the other 3 must be mafia.
Or put another way only a 33% chance that any one of the others is town.

There is a stated absolute from ragian that there cannot be 2 town protectives in the 3.
If so then it follows there cannot be 2 town investigative s in the 3 either.
So it would then follow either extreme or Halrob have to be mafia.
I do not however accept there cannot be 2 town protectives in the 3, I think we could be in what sonic called a bastard game, where town has only protective powers and the investigative aspect of the jail keeper.
I'm not saying we are in such a bastard game, I'm saying we might be, or in the very least cannot rule it out.
Extreme isn't ruling out a bastard game, he has aired recent "suspicions" of Halrob, and Halrob has leaned into that coming back at extreme.
This could all be mafia theatre though orchestrated by extreme.
In a game with a serial killer it makes the same or more sense to me that town should have 2 protectives as it does that town has 2 investigative s. Of course it may not be a bastard game at all - but it might be.

How did we get into the situation of having 4 players claiming town power roles.
Halrob was virtually forced day 1.
Extreme outed himself - early day 2 and at a 50/50 chance of outing another town power role.
Curiously extreme also named ragian in the it was either sonic or ragian that I tracked play, and ragian then claimed a town power role.

Extreme according to himself had chosen to "track" sonic to halrob on the basis that he thought he'd change a winning strategy and track a player he didn't suspect this game.- really?,?

What about extremes claim that selecting ragian as the other player in the either sonic or ragian visited Halrob, where ragian was it turned out to be a player claiming a town power role - well this was pure chance. explanation??
13 players less 2 dead, less sonic, less extreme himself, less Halrob =1 in 8 as extreme correctly corrected my maths. 1 in 8 chance is still very remote.
The other explanation 7in 8 is it wasn't random at all, it was a cunning ploy that is explained best as extreme having more knowledge than he should have (because he's mafia) and deciding to set the 2 town claimed protectives off against each other.

The deep genius of extremes plan was/is
1. A townie had to see through it. That risk was minimised by the kill of Kong the player most likely to.
2. Another townie not only had to see through it but also convince the other townies - that's what I'm struggling with.
3. Mutual paranoia between the claimed town and selected by extreme town protectives. - well we see that's worked don't we sonic, DON'T WE RAGIAN??

Notice that throughout day 2 how extreme has cleverly aired suspicions at sonic and ragian and Halrob.
He knows what he's doing.

Too bad it only seems to be me amongst town who sees it, and extra specially too bad Ragian won't even consider it at all.
Bad town ragian , I own those t-shirts from previous games - here have one of mine.

But it's a game and it's engaging and it's fun so heyho.

Extreme Ways wrote:@Serial Killer, your task is to kill Sonic.

Yes because the way this is playing out for you as mafia your biggest danger is not me but the serial killer.
And you will have definite victory if rag is lynched, I'm killed and sonic is killed.

As for being a prawn Halrob, ok prawn I am making the best I can from the bottom of the seabed.

Extreme as one mafia and Halrob as another makes sense to me from my reading of extreme as mafia.
I can't work out if extreme as one and either rag or sonic as the other makes as much or more sense.
One thing is for sure, if you take the position there can't be 2 protectives among the 4 town power role claimees, there sure as he'll can't be 2 investigatives either - therefore only either Halrob or extreme can be town.
I maintain my
position that there can be 2 town protectives, take everything extreme says as extremely dubious more so than either sonic or ragian, and in fact more dubious than the 2 of them combined

Vote Count:

Ragian (5) - Ragian, Sonic, Devon, Chanakam, hjelp
Sonic (2) - Devante, EW
King (1) - Max
EW (1) - Loose

11 Alive - 6 Needed for Lynch

End of day will be 12H00 GMT next Friday 26 September if there is No Lynch before that time.

Ragian wrote:No, I'm done arguing. I've stated my case.
...
... End this day. Lynch me or lynch Son!c (I prefer the latter, of course). If you make me survive this day, I'm protecting myself. No one has shown me faith enough to earn the good doctor's protection.

If Ragian is a Mafia this would make a lot of sense.
If we let Ragian to survive, and Ragian survives the night, how can we tell if it was by protection as Doc or as Mafia ?

Regarding EW,

Will EW cast the last vote on Ragian?
I have claimed

hjelp wrote:This one is tricky ... maybe I can work it out ...
I'm a newbie in Maffia games so I apologise.

EM provides an elegant solution.
A choice between tracking Ragian or Son!c and
a vote on Ragian or Son!c and
a vote on Ragian or Kingma

I'm thinking - why follow Son!c and not Ragian?

Extreme Ways wrote: ...
I thought Rag was town. I also thought Sonic was townish but after a recent game (offsite) where I tracked someone in my scumlist to nowhere - I decided to instead track people I'm not too sure are town ...

Changing a long proven? tactic - tracking someone in the scumlist.
Why change tactic? If one as a townie in games tracking scumlist and then change to track not sure townies might be a result of being a Maffia or Associated instead of a townie as normal role.
If one knows which one is mafia then there is no need to track the mafia.
Therefore one tracks Son!c.
Then why vote on Ragian and not on Son!c based on that Ragian is a Mafia? - Well, Son!c is point-target (possible doctor) which will likely kill Son!c during the night by the Mafia or SK. or as Maffia roleblocker then townies vote for a lynch (hopefully).

Moreover, a vote on Ragian is between Ragian and Kingm (and the strange claim that not being aware of the vote count)

Extreme Ways wrote:
...
Ragian/Kingma is where i want to be looking atm but im not aware of the vote count and posting on mobile so voting ragian.
...

Kingma is the L-n leader so more likely to be lynched than Ragian so Ragian (as Maffia) will survive.
And if Kingma is the SK ... the better.
This is a good action for a Mafia or Associated.

That's why EW still will be third option on my list.

EW persistently refuses to vote on Ragian if Ragian is in danger. Now changed the vote - SoN!c. It will also be a "safe" vote.

@EW
IF you think Ragian is a Mafia, will you cast your vote on Ragian? Now you have your chance.
I will unvote so that you can cast your vote on Ragian.

Unvote Ragian

Time to test the theory
VOTE RAGIAN

hjelp wrote:Regarding EW,

Will EW cast the last vote on Ragian?
I have claimed

hjelp wrote:This one is tricky ... maybe I can work it out ...
I'm a newbie in Maffia games so I apologise.

EM provides an elegant solution.
A choice between tracking Ragian or Son!c and
a vote on Ragian or Son!c and
a vote on Ragian or Kingma

I'm thinking - why follow Son!c and not Ragian?

Extreme Ways wrote: ...
I thought Rag was town. I also thought Sonic was townish but after a recent game (offsite) where I tracked someone in my scumlist to nowhere - I decided to instead track people I'm not too sure are town ...

Changing a long proven? tactic - tracking someone in the scumlist.
Why change tactic? If one as a townie in games tracking scumlist and then change to track not sure townies might be a result of being a Maffia or Associated instead of a townie as normal role.
If one knows which one is mafia then there is no need to track the mafia.
Therefore one tracks Son!c.
Then why vote on Ragian and not on Son!c based on that Ragian is a Mafia? - Well, Son!c is point-target (possible doctor) which will likely kill Son!c during the night by the Mafia or SK. or as Maffia roleblocker then townies vote for a lynch (hopefully).

Moreover, a vote on Ragian is between Ragian and Kingm (and the strange claim that not being aware of the vote count)

Extreme Ways wrote:
...
Ragian/Kingma is where i want to be looking atm but im not aware of the vote count and posting on mobile so voting ragian.
...

Kingma is the L-n leader so more likely to be lynched than Ragian so Ragian (as Maffia) will survive.
And if Kingma is the SK ... the better.
This is a good action for a Mafia or Associated.

That's why EW still will be third option on my list.

EW persistently refuses to vote on Ragian if Ragian is in danger. Now changed the vote - SoN!c. It will also be a "safe" vote.

@EW
IF you think Ragian is a Mafia, will you cast your vote on Ragian? Now you have your chance.
I will unvote so that you can cast your vote on Ragian.

Unvote Ragian

I have stated a couple times now that I believeRagian to be town and Sonic to be scum.

No thank you.

I have also offered to vote me out instead of Rag and that offer still stands. Town needs a wake-up call that I am town.

I say loud and clear a lynch on ragian, and a town flip of ragian will not prove sonic is mafia.
Sonic is unknown to vanilla town, Halrob is unknown to vanilla town, only extreme is past the burden of proof to town that he is MAFIA.

Extreme has made appeals to sk.
My turn sk kill extreme.

Mafia has to kill either me, sonic, Halrob or Chana in event that rag flips town.

In event that rag flips town, a suicidal town doctor has surely breached his Hippocratic oath.

Kick rags out of the medical profession for good is what I would then say.
But don't hold hard feelings against him for future mafia games.

Extreme Ways wrote:

Loose Canon wrote:You see ragian and sonic.
The above interchange between Halrob and extreme could be a mafia oon mafia game calibrated by extreme.
I'm not saying it is, but I'm putting my probability at 40% it is.

Only sonic so far of you two has contemplated this possibility in chat.
But then reverted to sonic and rag , it's one or the other of us.
I however put the probability of sonic and rag being a zero sum game down at 60%.

And to repeat myself and nauseum the probability of ew mafia 95%, and Halrob mafia 40%.

Does this not have any traction at all with either of you?
Shouldn't it?

You are advertising with "40%" a world in which we have zero investigative roles, and 3 protective roles.

You understand what I'm saying even if others don't.
I'm advertising a world in which town may have 2 protective roles and a role (jail keeper) which is 75% protective (possibly 50%) and 25% investigative.