Conquer Club

The kernel of their idea is an empirical observation: in the early days after SARS-CoV-2 began to spread, countries close to China, whatever the size of their populations, had the most known cases of COVID-19. This is natural to the point of being obvious. The part that seems to demand an explanation is that much later in the pandemic — by which they really mean “now” — the correlation flipped the other way: it is now countries furthest from China that have had the most cases, and the number of cases in each country is correlated closely to their size. “Furthest” is measured here according to air-travel connections with China — an epidemiological proxy validated for purposes like this in the past — so that Toronto, for example, is considered much “closer” to China than Calgary.

What if, the paper asks, there were a slower-moving herald coronavirus that spread in Asia first — one that causes minor symptoms or none at all, but that imparts some immunity or resistance to SARS-CoV-2? Speculation about other coronaviruses possibly having this effect has endured throughout the pandemic, but the Israeli pair argue that they can use epidemological models to fit the pattern of global spread to a more specific scenario.

They postulate a herald virus with a natural epidemiological doubling time something like 40 per cent lower than that of SARS-CoV-2; it would have crossed to humans within China, but far from Wuhan (and possibly near Vietnam, which has pretty much just shrugged off COVID-19). If this happened, it must have taken place two or three months before the crossover of the second, crueller virus that we know about.

mrswdk wrote:lol. Even that article calls their claims 'probably untrue'.

Dukasaur wrote:Among the more interesting offbeat theories:
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/colby- ... inst-covid

The kernel of their idea is an empirical observation: in the early days after SARS-CoV-2 began to spread, countries close to China, whatever the size of their populations, had the most known cases of COVID-19. This is natural to the point of being obvious. The part that seems to demand an explanation is that much later in the pandemic — by which they really mean “now” — the correlation flipped the other way: it is now countries furthest from China that have had the most cases, and the number of cases in each country is correlated closely to their size. “Furthest” is measured here according to air-travel connections with China — an epidemiological proxy validated for purposes like this in the past — so that Toronto, for example, is considered much “closer” to China than Calgary.

What if, the paper asks, there were a slower-moving herald coronavirus that spread in Asia first — one that causes minor symptoms or none at all, but that imparts some immunity or resistance to SARS-CoV-2? Speculation about other coronaviruses possibly having this effect has endured throughout the pandemic, but the Israeli pair argue that they can use epidemological models to fit the pattern of global spread to a more specific scenario.

They postulate a herald virus with a natural epidemiological doubling time something like 40 per cent lower than that of SARS-CoV-2; it would have crossed to humans within China, but far from Wuhan (and possibly near Vietnam, which has pretty much just shrugged off COVID-19). If this happened, it must have taken place two or three months before the crossover of the second, crueller virus that we know about.

mrswdk wrote:I don't think that's something you want to be admitting to, jim.

mrswdk wrote:You don't think it could just be because East and South East Asian countries implemented more effective responses to COVID-19 than countries like Brazil ('the virus doesn't matter') or the US ('we need to keep the economy open')?

A country is doing better at something than the US?? It must be a conspiracy!!!

mrswdk wrote:It's also possible that COVID is specifically targeting white people because the Chinese government genetically engineered it to do so, but that doesn't mean that theory is worth giving any serious consideration too.

mrswdk wrote:My comment is also speculative in part on basic science and how the facts have played out thus far. It has been well-publicized that in the UK ethnic minorities have been affected more severely by COVID-19 than white people. Therefore the virus is clearly racist.

jimboston wrote:

mrswdk wrote:My comment is also speculative in part on basic science and how the facts have played out thus far. It has been well-publicized that in the UK ethnic minorities have been affected more severely by COVID-19 than white people. Therefore the virus is clearly racist.

In US some minority groups are more heavily affected as well.
That almost certainly has more to do with lack of social distancing; both in part due to ignoring guidelines and also in part due to tighter living conditions in cities with smaller apartments and shared areas like staircases, hallways, lobbies, etc.

mrswdk wrote:

jimboston wrote:

mrswdk wrote:My comment is also speculative in part on basic science and how the facts have played out thus far. It has been well-publicized that in the UK ethnic minorities have been affected more severely by COVID-19 than white people. Therefore the virus is clearly racist.

In US some minority groups are more heavily affected as well.
That almost certainly has more to do with lack of social distancing; both in part due to ignoring guidelines and also in part due to tighter living conditions in cities with smaller apartments and shared areas like staircases, hallways, lobbies, etc.

LOL

Tell me more about these 'educated speculations'. Start with the one in bold plz.

jimboston wrote:

mrswdk wrote:

jimboston wrote:

mrswdk wrote:My comment is also speculative in part on basic science and how the facts have played out thus far. It has been well-publicized that in the UK ethnic minorities have been affected more severely by COVID-19 than white people. Therefore the virus is clearly racist.

In US some minority groups are more heavily affected as well.
That almost certainly has more to do with lack of social distancing; both in part due to ignoring guidelines and also in part due to tighter living conditions in cities with smaller apartments and shared areas like staircases, hallways, lobbies, etc.

LOL

Tell me more about these 'educated speculations'. Start with the one in bold plz.

You’re not gonna suck me into your trap you feisty little bitch.

Now keep throwing out dumb conspiracy theories you don’t believe... they make you seem so smart.

jimboston wrote:The fact is that there are social groups in the US that are ignoring social distancing guidelines... I make [this comment] with confidence because I’ve seen it first hand [and I've had] second hand discussions with a few nurse friends

mrswdk wrote:

jimboston wrote:The fact is that there are social groups in the US that are ignoring social distancing guidelines... I make [this comment] with confidence because I’ve seen it first hand [and I've had] second hand discussions with a few nurse friends

Well there you go, folks. Comprehensive proof that 'the Latinos' aren't social distancing!

mrswdk wrote:My comment is also speculative

jimboston wrote:... and then you take away 80% of what I said red herrings and tangents