INTO THE DEEP (COMPLETE - Mafia Win !!)

[strike wolf]

Question: In Mafia, is it possible for someone to have a daytime kill action? If so, how would that work?

It is. Usually day kills are more or less instant and and therefore all but unblockable. Sometimes the marble bounces out by making the day kill a one or two shot ability, other times I'll just let it be an everyday ability and try to balance around it otherwise.

To the other question asked about a passive poison ability, I can't remember seeing one but that does indeed seem like something that would be possible. However, from what Tobi is saying it kind of sounds like he doesn't believe the poisoner is passive he think someone poisoned Blackie more or less intentionally. Correct me if I am wrong, Tobi.

To aages earlier question, there are basically two main reasons that I agreed with the pershey lynch. one he was coming and his claim was scummy to the point where if you Google Mafia role wiretapper, I think it's what I entered, it actually comes up specifying that it is a scum role. Second it was the end of day one and Percshey was the Lynch that was most likely go through. You know me well enough to know that I believe in lynching day one.

[ZaBeast]

I will make an actual proper post later today; but a quick clarification is that by attacked I mean someone tried to kill me.

It's the 2nd time you promise a more detailed post without following up. Can we get the details now?

About the poisonner: yes I don't see why holding up the information until monday would offer any advantage. People who weren't there in the week-end can still read back.
About whether he's town:

Generally, anyone trying to kill people N1 is not town in my book.

agree with this, especially if the one you think is the poisonner is an experienced player. Also Skoff was convinced D1 there was a Serial Killer (post), which IMO would be the likeliest one to have a poisoning ability
That is if you also know the poisoning was an active and not passive ability.

[Ragian]

Maybe others saw it, too, Tobi, but chose to focus on hunting scum

[Ragian]

Right now, I think chap is the way to go, but I'm waiting for whatever tidbit, Skoffin wants to lay out.

[aage]

Okay, something else did grab my interest.
I would say that Tob knows more than he's letting on, and he's letting on a hell of a lot with these posts. From what he's been posting, I draw the conclusion that he either knows something about a busdriver or he knows who the intended target for the poisoning was and is slipping up hard.

Unvote, Vote Tobikera
Time to fess up.

Congratulations, aage! Although your conclusions are wrong, I've been dropping bread crumbs, trying to get people's attention. Most folks here don't seem to pay attention to anything I say, or dismiss it out of hand. But, you actually went back and read things. Thank you. I believe I can present the poisoner to this group for lynching, and blacky is part of my proof. I'm not sure the weekend, when some are away, is the best time to present my proof. Perhaps Monday morning will be better, eh?

No, it won't be. You're stalling. And you didn't answer any of my allegations.

If your intention is to share information with the town, this is a very dramatic and terrible way to go about it.

[Skoffin]

Apologies all - a storm has rolled through my area and my house is a bit fucked so all my attention has been towards that.

So you don't find Dakky scummy Skoffi n?

Honestly, why this condemnation of Blacky and not Sirius who's changed his more times than I can remember?

It's not unusual for dakky to play like a menace as town.

I initially went for SirusFace - but if I recall correctly someone said it was his first game, whereas blacky was experienced. There is a difference between behaviour from new players versus ones that should know better. But since then it has been stated that blacky is actually not that experienced, so I will come back to that one.

Blacky wasn't being discussed for a lynch, this poisoning seems random.
'

Not so random. I think Blacky is one of the more experienced players. Therefore, if he is town (which I believe), then he would be a prime target.

Is he? Is he really?

on mobile

To make this day extra spicy I'll reveal that someone tried attacking me last night

define attacking. You mean anything that would affect you or your actions? It's probably my fault

Stop touching me

I am curious if it's possible that Bujaber and blacky went for food last night and the poison and silence may have been effects?

Night time BONUS:
At anytime, anyone can waive their night action and attempt to find their favorite food.
IF you find your favorite food you have a:

• 30% Chance of eating it and gaining 200 CREDITS plus one extra UNIQUE night action, to be used during the next night.
• 50% Chance of missing your prey and looking like a fool (All will know you went for it)
• 20% Chance of becoming a night kill

Success will reward you FAILURE MAY MEAN DEATH. *Can only be won once, attempted many times

If anybody attempted to find food last night and was unsuccessful, we would know about it.

—

So Tobikera suggests that several of those who of those who have yet to post are scum, and in the same post even speculates specifically about post restrictions: "perhaps there is something wrong wherein the players in blue above can no longer post?" Now, BuJaber claims to have been the target of a post restriction. Tobikera's post restriction comment looks awfully like a scum slip to me.

Pike - you are looking at the 50% part. There is still the 20% night kill part, which we do not know if it is an instant kill or a delayed kill. It specifically is worded as failure MAY mean death, potentially implying you could have a chance to undo it.

Forgetting his post restriction slip comment, I actually think this is his biggest slip

Question, based on the mod's words, does every one of us have a night action, even if it's just to try for your favorite food item?

All town have some sort of role action and all town should know this; the only people who would not know this is noob/lazy scum that did not read the OP/rules.

dakky21: did that post actually have a point to it?

Yes, that post was for you scum. You tried to kill me but you couldn't find me hence no night kill.

Mate there is a plethora of ways the night could have gone that resulted in a no night kill. Why are you like this?

To clarify, dskky is interpretting normal questions from pika that are not alignment indicative and somehow thinking they come from someone who tried to kill him??

Why and how?

Also 2 other people claim someone tried to kill them. Why would the guy who publicly warned everyone on day 1 that he is able to protect himself from incoming attacks think that someone tried to kill him? And not only that but thinks that the guy would immediately start talking to him in day 2 and 'exposing' himself like that.

How does that make any sense?

Because Dakky is terrible, and probably drunk when he said it.

I will make an actual proper post later today; but a quick clarification is that by attacked I mean someone tried to kill me.

This is surprising. The combination of circumstances wherein a person who was attacked survived and also knew that they were attacked is fairly uncommon.

I'm fucking amazing


Onto my personal theories :-

There are many possible reasons for why we have no NK
1. Doc type save -
2. Roleblock - I believe there will be a roleblocker in the game, but I don't think this is the no NK reason
3. Mafia attacked me - what I personally suspect
4. Bus driving or other action altercation - I believe there will be a role somewhere that can alter night actions, but not what happened last night
5. They went for dakky like he thinks - which would be dumb and unlikely
6 ???

As for blacky, I find it highly unlikely that any mafia would choose him for a kill. No offence but he is hardly a threat to them, and he is scummy himself. This leaves the following options
1. SK type role picked him
2. vig picked him
3. He was not picked at all, but actions were altered last night and he was affected
4. Mafia have a direct kill and a secondary, delayed killer on the team. Possible, but again - why would they pick blacky?
5. Mafia have a direct kill and a delayed kill - except maf chose not to use the delayed kill to fake it being on blacky.
6. He went for food and got that 20% chance penalty
7. ???

To summarise -

1. I think there is at least two killers, probably mafia and a SK rather than a vig - for reasons
2. I think there will be some variation of roleblockers and busdrivers in the game - everyone has a role, after cop and doc variations those are the next most likely both statistically and for this setup/theme.


Blacky and tobi are the most interesting prospects for the day.

[TX AG 90]

All that Skoffin and you never elaborated on what we have been waiting for - How do you know you were targeted for a kill? We need some details on that.

[TX AG 90]

Is he? Is he really?

For a rookie, 4 games seems experienced from down here!

Pike - you are looking at the 50% part. There is still the 20% night kill part, which we do not know if it is an instant kill or a delayed kill. It specifically is worded as failure MAY mean death, potentially implying you could have a chance to undo it.

I think the MAY part refers to that if you fail, 50% of nothing and 30% chance of death, not that becoming a night kill is survivable.

dakky21 wrote:
Pikanchion wrote:
dakky21: did that post actually have a point to it?


Yes, that post was for you scum. You tried to kill me but you couldn't find me hence no night kill.


Mate there is a plethora of ways the night could have gone that resulted in a no night kill. Why are you like this?

Dakky has already adnmitted he was talking hypothetically and skoffin is right, he was probably drunk. We need to focus on other things he says, not this.

I'm fucking amazing

We need more...

1. I think there is at least two killers, probably mafia and a SK rather than a vig - for reasons

I agree...

Another reason Blacky may have gotten poisoned was someone having a passive ability and Blacky did something to them. That and altered actions as Skoffin suggested are my best guesses. I do NOT believe Blacky was targeted.

Blacky care to share what you were doing last night that may have gotten you in this pickle?

[Tobikera]

OK, OK.... I was going to wait until Monday when the full contingent is here, but you verbose types might add 15 more pages by then. Here's what I am (in part, not giving away everything) and what I know from my night action. I will probably need some protection tonight, although as stated earlier, my night actions can harm town as well as scum....

I am not a bus driver, or a water taxi driver, but I last night I could mis-direct someone's action. According to the mod, my abilities will be different on N2, but that's neither here nor there. My role is a TOWN role.
I am a squid and last night I squirted ink on a chosen person to mis-direct them.
I chose Metsfanmax.
I believe he is the poisoner. He was after someone else (no clue who), and my ink re-directed his action to blacky (who can still be scum, or can be town). I assume the action which was re-directed is targeted at a random player (in this case black). Could it be that the person actually targeted by Metsfanmax was told they were attacked, but weren't killed because of my action...don't know.
OK, that's what happened, believe it, or not. I am not going to reveal any more details of my role or future actions for obvious reasons.
If some sort of protector is out there, think of me tonight.


UNVOTE
VOTE METSFANMAX

[Sirius Kase]

Here i was suspecting that dakky could cause an attack to ricochet and all his talk was him daring someone to try attacking him. Does daring people to attack make him scum? Not sure, but, it is a way to turn a defensive mechanism into an offensive weapon. I'm watching him.

Tobi's initial plan to wait until Monday sounded to me a scheme to give him time to think up a fake claim. But, he said something a day early. That doesn't excuse him. He's still had plenty of time to think. Doesn't prove anything, but gives me reason to suspect him.

[Sirius Kase]

To clarify, he beat a self imposed unnecessary deadline. No one else is doing that.

[Metsfanmax]

OK, OK.... I was going to wait until Monday when the full contingent is here, but you verbose types might add 15 more pages by then. Here's what I am (in part, not giving away everything) and what I know from my night action. I will probably need some protection tonight, although as stated earlier, my night actions can harm town as well as scum....

I am not a bus driver, or a water taxi driver, but I last night I could mis-direct someone's action. According to the mod, my abilities will be different on N2, but that's neither here nor there. My role is a TOWN role.
I am a squid and last night I squirted ink on a chosen person to mis-direct them.
I chose Metsfanmax.
I believe he is the poisoner. He was after someone else (no clue who), and my ink re-directed his action to blacky (who can still be scum, or can be town). I assume the action which was re-directed is targeted at a random player (in this case black). Could it be that the person actually targeted by Metsfanmax was told they were attacked, but weren't killed because of my action...don't know.
OK, that's what happened, believe it, or not. I am not going to reveal any more details of my role or future actions for obvious reasons.
If some sort of protector is out there, think of me tonight.


UNVOTE
VOTE METSFANMAX

I am not a poisoner. And your theory does not make much sense. Why does blacky being poisoned require a redirect at all? What you have described is a possible set of circumstances but it is not the one Occam's Razor would suggest. It is statistically unlikely that I was the poisoner and you got me and misdirected me. More likely that the poisoner targeted blacky and got blacky.

[Metsfanmax]

I do know that my action was redirected, which I had not revealed yet, so that part of Tobi's claim holds up.

[Sirius Kase]

During the busy night of activity, some did see a flash of bubbles heading towards the surface
The unmistakable trace of someone travelling FAST... who was it?

ordinary fish don't make bubble when they breathe. So what does this mean? Is there a mammal in the game?

[Tobikera]

RE: Bubbles.....The mod did show a picture of a seal at one point. Could explain the bubbles.

RE: Metsfanmax..... I give him credit for confirming that he was misdirected. I can only tell you what I did and what resulted. My action on N1 was successful, according to the mod's response to me. According to modus ponens logic (if A, then B; B, therefore A), Metsfanmax is the poisoner. That he denies it is to be expected. I find Metsfanmax to be one of the most clear posters here. Normally, I would not vote for him. But, unless there is info to the contrary, my vote stays. I didn't out myself on a whim, nor did I come up with a minimal "Lynch Metsfanmax. Trust me." story just to protect myself. Perhaps others have info they can share.

[aage]

RE: Bubbles.....The mod did show a picture of a seal at one point. Could explain the bubbles.

RE: Metsfanmax..... I give him credit for confirming that he was misdirected. I can only tell you what I did and what resulted. My action on N1 was successful, according to the mod's response to me. According to modus ponens logic (if A, then B; B, therefore A), Metsfanmax is the poisoner. That he denies it is to be expected. I find Metsfanmax to be one of the most clear posters here. Normally, I would not vote for him. But, unless there is info to the contrary, my vote stays. I didn't out myself on a whim, nor did I come up with a minimal "Lynch Metsfanmax. Trust me." story just to protect myself. Perhaps others have info they can share.

Modus ponens doesn't apply here, though. B does not inevitably follow into A. Secondly, Mets himself already pointed out correctly that Occam's Razor says your theory doesn't hold up. I don't consider it evidence of Mets being the poisoner, and I think you only came to that conclusion because it's the only information you have to work with. The fact that Mets confirms your ability and your willingness to share it in pursuit of finding the poisoner puts you in the town column, though.

Unvote

[dakky21]

Mets is saying he knows his action was redirected. Also states he is not a poisoner.
Tobi targeted Mets and Mets action ended on someone else (maybe Skoffin who said there was a kill attempt on her?)
Someone else tried to poison Blacky and the action succeeded without redirections.

There are multiple ways how redirection could happen but we will need more input before making any deductions, and Tobi why are you so sure that Mets is the poisoner? Just because you redirected him?

fpd

[Metsfanmax]

RE: Bubbles.....The mod did show a picture of a seal at one point. Could explain the bubbles.

RE: Metsfanmax..... I give him credit for confirming that he was misdirected. I can only tell you what I did and what resulted. My action on N1 was successful, according to the mod's response to me. According to modus ponens logic (if A, then B; B, therefore A), Metsfanmax is the poisoner. That he denies it is to be expected. I find Metsfanmax to be one of the most clear posters here. Normally, I would not vote for him. But, unless there is info to the contrary, my vote stays. I didn't out myself on a whim, nor did I come up with a minimal "Lynch Metsfanmax. Trust me." story just to protect myself. Perhaps others have info they can share.

This is incorrect logic. Things we know:
1) Blacky was poisoned (probably, but not certain)
2) I was redirected by Tobi

How does it logically follow that I am the poisoner of Blacky? There is a logical link missing. (If we had clear evidence that the person who targeted blacky was redirected, your argument would be stronger, as that would be the missing link.) I am not denying modus ponens, I am denying that you are using it correctly. There is still a possible set of circumstances whereby there is a poisoner who is not me, and that person targeted blacky. As long as that is possible one cannot say there is a logical inference that I did it.

[TX AG 90]

RE: Bubbles.....The mod did show a picture of a seal at one point. Could explain the bubbles.

RE: Metsfanmax..... I give him credit for confirming that he was misdirected. I can only tell you what I did and what resulted. My action on N1 was successful, according to the mod's response to me. According to modus ponens logic (if A, then B; B, therefore A), Metsfanmax is the poisoner. That he denies it is to be expected. I find Metsfanmax to be one of the most clear posters here. Normally, I would not vote for him. But, unless there is info to the contrary, my vote stays. I didn't out myself on a whim, nor did I come up with a minimal "Lynch Metsfanmax. Trust me." story just to protect myself. Perhaps others have info they can share.

This is incorrect logic. Things we know:
1) Blacky was poisoned (probably, but not certain)
2) I was redirected by Tobi

How does it logically follow that I am the poisoner of Blacky? There is a logical link missing. (If we had clear evidence that the person who targeted blacky was redirected, your argument would be stronger, as that would be the missing link.) I am not denying modus ponens, I am denying that you are using it correctly. There is still a possible set of circumstances whereby there is a poisoner who is not me, and that person targeted blacky. As long as that is possible one cannot say there is a logical inference that I did it.

I think Tobi was going on the assumption that nobody had a reason to target Blacky, therefore his poisoning must be from a misdirect and since he misdirected Mets, he's making the leap that Mets is a poisoner.

I still wonder if Blacky did something to trigger a poisoning. It would help if he shared his night action with us if it isn't too compromising.

[TX AG 90]

Do we use the same argument D2 as we did D1 that we must have a lynch in order to get info or do we go to N2 if we're not sure?

[Metsfanmax]

I still wonder if Blacky did something to trigger a poisoning. It would help if he shared his night action with us if it isn't too compromising.

What? No, stop fishing. Blacky's N1 action could not have influenced what someone else's N1 action was.

[Tobikera]

First, I agree, there could be other explanations. However, Metsfanmax threw Occam's Razor in my face during his initial defense response. Certainly, modus ponens logic is the simplest explanation, satisfying Occam's Razor. That is why I brought it up. In the same way, Metsfanmax was invoking modus tolens logic (If A is true, then B is true; B is false, ergo A is false). Once again, there can be other explanations, I chose the simplest. Personally, if I eventually am proven correct about Metsfanmax, then anyone who defended him more than casually could be considered to be of the same cloth.

Second, consider the opening info back on page 1:
Night time BONUS:
At anytime, anyone can waive their night action and attempt to find their favorite food.
IF you find your favorite food you have a:

30% Chance of eating it and gaining 200 CREDITS plus one extra UNIQUE night action, to be used during the next night.
50% Chance of missing your prey and looking like a fool (All will know you went for it)
20% Chance of becoming a night kill
Success will reward you FAILURE MAY MEAN DEATH. *Can only be won once, attempted many times
Prizes:
100 Credits :- For anyone surviving Night 2 with at least 1 daytime lynch
150 Credits :- For anyone surviving Night 3 with at least 2 daytime lynches
200 Credits :- For anyone surviving Night 4 with at least 3 daytime lynches

Is there any evidence or information that someone tried the "favorite food" route? Could that explain someone getting a post-N1 message from the mod that they had been attacked (but not eaten, as it were?). I think not, because under 50% above it states that everyone will know that "you went for it." And, there were no night kills. We do not know if anyone tried and was successful. But, it bears keeping in mind. Note also above, the mod's attempt to prod us into daytime lynches.

[dakky21]

You should all be aware this is probably a bastard setup as I know how Razorvich thinks and over complicating it is just going to steer away from real conversation. He also said this is his first attempt at hosing a mafia game so expect more shits to happen. It reminds me of my setups when I tried to host a game but said it's a bastard, and not much players joined. Here he offers credits and that's the incentive, but any tries to think logically (if I'm correct) are futile.

[Skoffin]

All that Skoffin and you never elaborated on what we have been waiting for - How do you know you were targeted for a kill? We need some details on that.

Because I was told as much - stop asking me for more as I will not be telling you anything else at the moment. I don't know why people keep asking me these questions when they are unnecessary to the point.

[TX AG 90]

I still wonder if Blacky did something to trigger a poisoning. It would help if he shared his night action with us if it isn't too compromising.

What? No, stop fishing. Blacky's N1 action could not have influenced what someone else's N1 action was.

Dude, I was putting forth another possibility to you being the poisoner and you come at me like that?

I'm not fishing, I just want to know if there is a passive poisoner out there. Blacky doesn't have to go into complete specifics, but if he did a night action to someone who is a sting ray (non violent unless stepped on) or something like that and got poisoned I think it's worth noting. So yes, Blacky's action could have triggered someones passive ability.

I'm just trying to put the pieces together and this one fits as well as Tobi's very plausible theory. Blacky cold help put this theory to rest or support it - his call.

You adamantly trying to steer the conversation elsewhere (especially when elsewhere is a FoS at you as a poisoner) is suspect.