[SPECIAL] Surprise Mafia - Over - Mafia Wins - MVP Aladdin

[Metsfanmax]

If my wording is off, its because I am new.
I have gone back and reread first few pages. I have some different suspicions now, but not ready to say for sure.
A couple people have posted here, but not yet voted. Is that suspicious? Others accused of being scum early on, but now folks backing off. Is that suspicious? I will wait and see.

Maybe either Hotshot or IB is a psychiatrist in the asylum with some role therein?

oops, EDIT --- UNVOTE first, then---
Seems no time to do much else, and a no vote would be overall harmful, so back to VOTE HOTSHOT

(then again, maybe I was just played a dupe...)

Hey PLAYER, this is just a friendly reminder that post editing is not allowed in mafia games and that if you have something new to say you should add a new post instead of editing an old one.

[PLAYER57832]

OK, I thought just adding info was OK, in a clear error case like that, but I won't make that mistake again. lesson learned.

[Marashu]

Unvote Vote IB

Either IB is telling the truth or IB is lying. HotShot is claimed 3P, IB says HotShot is not town, so that's not a point worth contesting. If we lynch HotShot, we don't find out about IB, but if we lynch IB, we find out about HotShot. We also find out more about people taking stances with or against IB by lynching IB than we would find out by lynching HotShot.

Does anyone have an up-to-date vote count?

Why is it a 2 horse race?

You do have 8 days to convince us otherwise, but from where I stand, it is a two horse race, because right now the race is between an effective vanilla townie, and a confirmed non-town. Important town roles stay hidden and we have a decent chance of hitting some sort of scum D1, and at worst we lynch a VT (trading the VT for a D2 anti-town lynch or possible N1 kill).

[Metsfanmax]

Unvote Vote IB

Either IB is telling the truth or IB is lying. HotShot is claimed 3P, IB says HotShot is not town, so that's not a point worth contesting. If we lynch HotShot, we don't find out about IB, but if we lynch IB, we find out about HotShot. We also find out more about people taking stances with or against IB by lynching IB than we would find out by lynching HotShot.

I don't buy this logic. IB is saying that HotShot's continued living would be quite bad for town. If that is true, then we cannot merely treat IB and HS symmetrically. It would make more sense to lynch HS tonight, and we can always discuss lynching IB tomorrow depending on how HS flips. If we lynch IB and he flips town, that won't help make the decision on HS much easier. Probably we don't get anything from IB's death scene that would give us any extra information on HS. So there's really no way to conclude that IB is a better lynch than HS -- the expected risk of HS doing damage to town is much bigger than the expected value from vague information on people's stances for or against IB.

I'm going to Vote No Lynch for now just so I don't unintentionally get modkilled.

[Metsfanmax]

the expected risk of HS doing damage to town is much bigger than the expected value from vague information on people's stances for or against IB.

Just to emphasize this point a little further -- it seems likely based on what has been said that HS is third-party, not mafia. Given that it's D1, this means that mafia are probably just as clueless about what is going on as town. Possibly they have no idea whether lynching HS is actually in their interests or not. Same would hold true for any sort of third-party buddies that HS might potentially have -- if HS really is third party, they're just as likely to sell him down the river as to try and protect him. (My money is on that IB had a N0 action that allowed him to target someone, and got "lucky" with HS.) So any vote patterns today will be so highly confounded by the "WTF is going on" effect that I don't think we can really ever use them effectively down the line.

[Iron Butterfly]

Unvote Vote IB

Either IB is telling the truth or IB is lying. HotShot is claimed 3P, IB says HotShot is not town, so that's not a point worth contesting. If we lynch HotShot, we don't find out about IB, but if we lynch IB, we find out about HotShot. We also find out more about people taking stances with or against IB by lynching IB than we would find out by lynching HotShot.

Does anyone have an up-to-date vote count?

Why is it a 2 horse race?

You do have 8 days to convince us otherwise, but from where I stand, it is a two horse race, because right now the race is between an effective vanilla townie, and a confirmed non-town. Important town roles stay hidden and we have a decent chance of hitting some sort of scum D1, and at worst we lynch a VT (trading the VT for a D2 anti-town lynch or possible N1 kill).

If we lynch HS you will all know I was telling the truth about my claim.

HS has chosen to play the ignorant card.

I delivered a player who is anti town.

When you lynch HS you will find out plenty about me, namely I was telling the truth.

After all I am either lying or I am telling the truth,which is a masterful observation.

[Streaker]

Vote count

1. Marashu
2. madmitch
3. ptlowe (2): virus90
4. benga
5. TimWoodbury (replaced by WCG)
6. mtamburini
7. pancakemix (1): skoffin
8. LSU Tiger Josh
9. Skoffin
10. AladdinSane (2): benga, the white rose
11. thechuck51
12. / (1): Marashu,
13. Iron Butterfly
14. virus90
15. DJPatrick
16. rishaed
17. StorrZerg (1): Hotshot53
18. HotShot53 (12): /, Rishaed, DJPatrick, whatsausage, madmitch, LSU Tiger Josh, Ragian, the white rose, rizky_biznezz, Storrzerg, AlladinSane, player57832
19. Metsfanmax (0):
20. rizky_biznezz
21. the warrior65
22. Whatsausage
23. Falkomagno
24. Ragian (0):
25. PLAYER57832 (1): Ragian
26. the white rose (1): ptlowe
27. CatchersMitt14
28. degaston
NO LYNCH (0):

Hotshot, Third Party Delusional Escapee from Esylum (3rd party survivor), has been lynched!
To AlladinSane (and others who might misinterpret this: if you do NOT have a vote placed when deadline hits, you are modkilled. Previous vote does not matter.

It is now N1! There will be 1 or 2 more replacements coming in by D2, no more replacements after this. You have 48 hours to send in night actions, please send to both Dakky and myself. You will not be reminded about sending in your action, failing to send it in will result in no action.

And don't forget, night talk IS allowed.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Well done people, that was pointless. Information learnt zero. Dangerous players killed zero. Sounds to me like Hotshot was a 3rd party survivor.

(No this doesnt mean I think IB lied)

[the white rose]

yep, i agree wing.

the win condition of town is to lynch mafia, so far we have lynched none...the daytime objective of mafia is to avoid being lynched, they have done that in day one.....and the sad thing is that most of town agreed and believed hotshot.

ib may have been telling the truth regarding his role, but this does not mean that he is town. asylum guard could just as easily be mafia aligned.....not saying that he is, just that we should not treat him as confirmed town.

[madmitch]

You are both right in your comments, but H.S. didn't even try to fight,two bad he wasn't mafia so who do we look to now or should we consider that I.B. is mafia ? We need more info from night moves .

[AladdinSane]

Well done people, that was pointless. Information learnt zero. Dangerous players killed zero. Sounds to me like Hotshot was a 3rd party survivor.

(No this doesnt mean I think IB lied)

Wait, how do you no HotShot wasn't dangerous too Town? He was a delusional escapee. What part of that says "not dangerous to Town"?

Also, why do you say we learned nothing? We can now (slightly) have more confidence in IB than before, since nothing in HotShot's death contradicts what he said. Granted, we don't know for sure that HS was dangerous, but maybe we dodged a bullet by lynching him.

Exactly what would we have learned by lynching someone else? You are being suspiciously negative about the whole HotShot thing right out of the gate.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

IB was willing to put his neck on the line, therefore town or extremelly brave mafia. Does Hotshots lynch tell us anything on top of that? Nope.

White Rose, be careful, there may well be multiple factions that are harmful to town. If Hotshot had been a third party serial killer then we would need to kill him before we could win.

Yes Aladdin I am negative. IB said jump and everybody jumped. Thats not good play.

[AladdinSane]

the win condition of town is to lynch mafia, so far we have lynched none...

Sure, but the chances are against lynching Mafia on D1, simply because they are inn the minority. Unless won of them makes a criticall slip-up, it's prob expectoring to much to think we can hit won right out of the gate.

and the sad thing is that most of town agreed and believed hotshot.

Wait, if most of the Town believed HS, why did they lynch him?

ib may have been telling the truth regarding his role, but this does not mean that he is town. asylum guard could just as easily be mafia aligned.....not saying that he is, just that we should not treat him as confirmed town.

I agree - we shouldn't consider IB confirmed Town. He might even be anti-Town but in a rival faction to HS, who might or might not have been anti-Town.

Also, can we sort out the Asylum/Esylum thing? It's getting confusing. I'm post restricted to mispel, but most of the rest of you aren't. The loony bin is spelled "Asylum". Can we get confirmashun from the MODS that HS escaped from the ASYLUM please?

[AladdinSane]

Sory peeple, I have bean told my the mods that I have not bean mispeling enuff and I need to make my speling a lot werse than it has bean resently. Just no that it is moor panefull four me than it is four you. They sed they wil...do things...if I don't mispel enuff. Sory.

[Iron Butterfly]

yep, i agree wing.

the win condition of town is to lynch mafia, so far we have lynched none...the daytime objective of mafia is to avoid being lynched, they have done that in day one.....and the sad thing is that most of town agreed and believed hotshot.

ib may have been telling the truth regarding his role, but this does not mean that he is town. asylum guard could just as easily be mafia aligned.....not saying that he is, just that we should not treat him as confirmed town.

Like you had any idea who mafia are? Actually I think you might.

I have no problem saying you are scum.

What exactly do you people expect a delusional escapee from an Asylum do/Hand out BP vests?

The win condition is to also remove all threats to town. Even if you kill all the mafia the game would still continue untill HS was dead. So cut the crap like you know what you are talking about when it is obvious you do not.
You were given a sure thing.I do not make the roles and how they work. I just did what I needed to do. You now have one less scum to worry about.

[AladdinSane]

the win condition of town is to lynch mafia, so far we have lynched none...

Also, I thimk it is important, in a game like this (large, with several factions likely to exist), not too get two hung up on the Town/Mafia dikotommy. It is useful too Town to eliminate dangerous 3Ps as wel, since that helps Town reach its wincon. Suppose HS had flipped 3P escaped SK, fer example - lynching him would def have been good for Town even tho he wasn't MAfia, right?

I'm starting to get a bit suspishus of both you and WCG for being so down on the HS lynch. I don't thimk such negativity is justified.

[Streaker]

Mod note: There seems to be confusion about the modkills at deadline for not voting. I will explain as clearly as possible how it works:

If a deadline is reached (meaning deadline dated xxx), without majority vote, all players who have not placed their vote at that time will be modkilled. It does not matter if you have voted previously that day. If a player is lynched before deadline (like now was the case), deadline is NOT reached and no modkills are applicable.

If this remains unclear, please PM the mods. Thanks.

[Iron Butterfly]

With a game this size it would almost be impossible to lynch mafia without some outside help..IE day action or some such.

I claimed Town Insane Asylum Guard.I was not aloud to reveal HS role. I knew he was an escaped prisoner but could not reveal as such. If younotice in his one defense post he tries to make it seem like it was weird I targeted him and not his role. That was all he really had to work with.

Mafia knew he was not mafia so I would think that mafia is in that group that lynched him as he would have A) removed the possibility of mafia being lynched and B) removed the possibility mafia could be killed at night by him.

Any one who says this is a bad day one lynch in a game this size is either an idiot or is trying to keep focus on me so as to keep it off of the real scum hunting.

I am now a VT.I have no night actions.Mafia or other scum are more then welcome to target me.

My top scum picks.

White Rose
Player
Chuck

[StorrZerg]

yep, i agree wing.

the win condition of town is to lynch mafia, so far we have lynched none...the daytime objective of mafia is to avoid being lynched, they have done that in day one.....and the sad thing is that most of town agreed and believed hotshot.

ib may have been telling the truth regarding his role, but this does not mean that he is town. asylum guard could just as easily be mafia aligned.....not saying that he is, just that we should not treat him as confirmed town.

i might be ok lynching white rose, since he got towns win condition wrong

[StorrZerg]

IB, did hotshot have the same wincon as you, knew you? and needed to outlive you?

[Iron Butterfly]

IB, did hotshot have the same wincon as you, knew you? and needed to outlive you?

I have no idea. I CAN say that my win condition was such that for me to win with Town he had to die before the end of the game. Perhaps I am reading to much into it BUT to do that with me knowing who and what he was tells me that it is either an extremely unfair role for HS or he would have help from others. Being 3rd party is hard enough.Someone knowing you are third party/anti town worse. I do not know if he knew that I knew.

If you notice when he flipped nothing is mentioned on being a survivor.My own opinion is that HS was not an island unto himself.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

IB, did hotshot have the same wincon as you, knew you? and needed to outlive you?

I suggest we dont enquire into IB's role further. He has caught 3rd party for us and leave it that.

I dont see why you would ask this question specifically. Hotshot is dead and made minimal comments before being lynched so undersyanding his role further is needless. I can only conclude that you are trying to determine IB's alignment, which there is sufficient evidence to read with confidence already.

Fp'd IB I agree about Hotshot not bring isolated, but my conclusions are best unwritten.

[Streaker]

Mod note: I have updated the previous post to include 3rd party survivor to hotshot role.

[rizky_biznezz]

Have to wait and see what the aftermath is but it was better than just taking a stab in the dark and lynching a VT or forcing someone to claim early and revealing a power role.. I still don't understand why IB was given the info it seems unfair on hotshot but I couldn't really see the day ending in the lynch of anyone else although I'm surprised it was done so early

[Falkomagno]

hey! it was a long 19 pages read...i did some notes, but I think the most meaningful things happened so far are:

• IB was right. In my opinion, he looks a bit suicidal, and the whole claiming seemed a bit rushed, but so far the facts shows that he was saying the truth
• Aladin was the one who hammered HS.
• some discussion about a vigilante should claim on D1, that faded away as soon as IB claimed

By now, i already have some list of suspects. But lets see what happens next[/list]