INTO THE DEEP (COMPLETE - Mafia Win !!)

[strike wolf]

Also Unvote in case there is a vote left from my previous incarnation.

[Razorvich]

NEW Deadline for Day 1 will now be CC Time: 2019-03-12 06:59:59
Day 1 will end, unless there is a lynch prior to the deadline.

The funky end time fits with my work schedule to ensure a smooth night scene transition

[aage]

My vote is on Mets, not on chap.

[Metsfanmax]

Mets if you had to vote someone on the jfm wagon who would it be?

I think that breaks down in two ways. There's who do I think is scummiest on the jfm wagon, and there's who is the best pragmatic target for voting so that we can get a lynch today. For the former I would say Skoffin, whose contributions this game have mainly been limited to pointing out newbie plays and calling them scummy. I know Skoffin explained the lack of activity, but even the posts that are there are really not that insightful -- the things that are there are fine, it's the things that aren't there that I'm worried about. For the latter I would say pershy, because I can at least see the argument for why pershy's vote looks opportunistic, and pershy's contributions have not been very productive for town in my assessment, so if we ended up wrong it's one of the less painful losses.

[Razorvich]

My vote is on Mets, not on chap.

Appologies.

[pershy]

unvote

and finally we get some kind of claim. Looks like a blocker of some kind.
OK thanks Jfm - I think his claim seems legit to me.

[pershy]

More rookie mentoring needed again.

Can someone please explain to me why it is in town's favor to lynch on D1? I keep hearing it's because we get more information, but aren't we only getting information on the person we lynched? They're now gone, how does that help?

well obviously you get info from how they flip. If scum then bonus! But if town which is only likely at least on D1 and probably on D2 as well, then you can at look at who voted them and when and try and make some conclusions.

I for now am satisfied with jfm's claim.

If we get an extension we might be able to pressure someone else. Otherwise we probably won't have time and at least can rely on night actions to bring some info.
As I mentioned I personally would like to pressure Dakky,

[pershy]

But that's just based on a gut feeling. I suppose the likely candidates based on current votes to get any traction are chapcrap or mets or possibly myself according to what a few people have said. I personally don't find chapcrap scummy.
But there probably isn't time unless the mod grants another couple of days I guess. I feel we have had a fairly productive D1 at least and we have got one claim which cleared jfm in my eyes at least for now. Seems a fitting ability for this game - especially the detail of the ability starting weak and getting stronger. Seemed legit to me.

[strike wolf]

Caught up:

Spoiler

vote mets

Come join me, then, aage.

Sure, he's scummy and on the list.

Unvote, Vote Mets

vote mets

Come join me, then, aage.

aage's vote is already on chapcrap and he has said it's his top choice. Realistically it's the only other lynch candidate for today. Since I think we should lynch and I am not a fan of the case on jfm, the only thing I can say is that I hope people accept that he's not full claiming and also accept that he has not done enough to warrant a lynch. And then they can move on to the next choice.

My top choice seems to not be the town's top choice. The case on chapcrap seems to have little traction, the case on you might. Also good job digging your own grave by answering for me, you already knew I am suspicious of you.

I was totally ready to vote Chap when I caught up too. I honestly would need to do a more detailed read on Mets to say my opinion there. He usually strikes me as scummy regardless of alignment so I try not to fall too deeply into the "I think he's scum" mindset too quickly

Spoiler

You guys need more proof that jfm is town?

People are appearing from the abyss to vote him, restating old and previously refuted arguments to support their votes

how is that proof he is town?
The whole point anyway is that it is in town's favour to have a lynch on D1. It's unlikely we will hit scum but we will have more info to go on on D2.

OK,

More rookie mentoring needed again.

Can someone please explain to me why it is in town's favor to lynch on D1? I keep hearing it's because we get more information, but aren't we only getting information on the person we lynched? They're now gone, how does that help?

I'm sure there is a more nuanced reason, but I'll need help understanding it.

Entire essays have been written about the subject and not everyone agrees D1 lynch is always good, but I think it is. Dakky already partially answered why. The other, slightly more straightforward reason is that we should be lynching on every game day, because that's the only way town can kill scum (with the exception of vigilantes, but we don't know if we have any of those).

Also, wouldn't it be more beneficial to discuss what our night actions could be. I'm talking about in a general sense, not asking everyone to claim. But since, jfm has claimed a "protective role", if we don't lynch jfm, shouldn't he be guided on who to protect? Can he protect himself at night?

No, we shouldn't be guiding him. Protective roles only have a chance of preventing a death if the scum don't know who they are protecting, and townies mostly don't kill people at night so they don't need to know. Whether or not a protective role can protect themselves depends on the specifics of the role, and again, it's best not to reveal anything because that helps scum, but doesn't help town. That basically goes for every role.

The hypocrisy is not in changing your vote to a wagon that has a chance of succeeding. The hypocrisy is in not helping that wagon to succeed other than with your vote, because as you say, the fabled pro town hero is unlikely to be arriving any time soon.
...
Have a look at me then. But recall that we've played enough games together that you know that this is just my style and is not very alignment indicative. I've never been much of a case-maker, as town or as scum. I mostly just point out what's wrong with other people's arguments, and sometimes that lands me scum.

Alright.

I've already generally described in a previous post why I think Mets is worth looking at. He's pretty deeply involved in the jfm wagon, but chooses to only play defense.
I find that people who 'discuss' as passively as Mets does are generally scum. Mets has been pointing out what's wrong with people's arguments... and nothing else. His vote is on chap but we have to go back to page 2 to see why. Mets has bitten early and isn't letting go. He has been on the defensive for almost the entire game, and not even on behalf of himself at that.
We're trying to find out which people are scum, but Mets isn't looking at people. He's been poking holes in the jfm wagon, but never called anyone on it scummy. Never called anyone out other than chap, for that matter, which seems odd given the amount of discussion so far. He's willing to stick his neck out for jfm, possibly because that's fairly safe - several people, myself included, have done the same and he's statistically likely to flip town - but doesn't accuse the attackers despite his strong disagreements. He says he wants to lynch someone today, but doesn't want to make the case.

Now Mets is claiming this is style indicative... I'm not gonna read back several games to see if this is true. I do know he's played plenty of mafia (cause I was there), and if this is his style, his style is scummy. Playing defense is safe, and it's the scum game. Playing offense is the town game.

The chapcrap vote going back that far is odd but could just be coincidence since Chap has rolefished, I believe twice since then. As far as the rest, I'll actually attest that this does tend to be Mets' style and a large part of the reason I usually find him scummy regardless of alignment. I would need to read back more to comment accurately on the claims he's misrepresented people. I will say I didn't really like him trying to dismiss the case against him before it began in earnest. Read a bit like someone trying to be defense while trying to avoid looking like they are by being dismissive. Quote reposted below for reference:

Spoiler

Aage's vote is already on chapcrap and he has said it's his top choice. Realistically it's the only other lynch candidate for today. Since I think we should lynch and I am not a fan of the case on jfm, the only thing I can say is that I hope people accept that he's not full claiming and also accept that he has not done enough to warrant a lynch. And then they can move on to the next choice.

Can people please actually unvote JFM? The case on him was pretty much inexperienced mistake followed by a bunch of people going "why are you claiming yourself? Why are you claiming yourself?" Like a pack of elementary school bullies followed by "why aren't you claiming yourself? Why aren't you claiming yourself?" When he retreated from claiming, possibly because he had just gotten lampooned for soft claiming too quickly. You don't have to believe he's town just accept that the argument against him is way too weak to be holding a claimed protector within lynching distance, especially now that he actually has claimed more fully.

Honestly the case is so shit that it's difficult to tell who's town with bad reasoning and who's opportunistic scum. I'll try though.

Right now, my suspicions are between Chap, Pershy and Tobikera. Ill try to post more evidence later but for now, Chap has been stated by others, he's role fished and to me seemed more interested in JFM's claim than JFM's alignment. The latter seems fairly common on the JFM bandwagon but Chap and Tobi are the ones who stood out to me for doing so.

Tob ia actually expressing interest in claims in general, his reasoning for voting JFM basically being that JFM was the easiest target to get to L-2 to force a claim and when he got more information from JFM, I wasn't comfortable with how he used role flavor trying to trap JFM seemingly in a lie or his focus on role flavor in general. It's possible this is new player stuff and he may be getting more into the flavor due to his previous profession but it still rubs me the wrong way.

I actually believe Pershy on his absence. The job excuse would explain why he seems more active on the weekends. It's his rushed posts coming back that have me unsettled. It basically felt like he voted JFM because he had the most votes not for any legitimate reason. This is more excusable with Sirius and Blacky who are newer but not so much with Pershy.

I have no fookin read on Skoff right now. Like I see the points made against her but what she was saying kinda went mostly unnoticed as I got more interested in other people.

The too long you didn't read it version: I think JFM is town and people really should unvote. Not convinced on Mets, probably willing to vote if it becomes a deadline issue. No opinion on Skoff.

vote Chap

FOS Tobi and Pershy

[Tobikera]

My vote is on pershy, not jfm10

[Tobikera]

Read some more, Strike Wolf. My goal was to get jfm10 to do what you are supposed to do at L-2. I didn't even get a flavor claim out of him the first time. It was obvious that there were enough newbies here that I thought it important to stress that you are supposed to provide good info at L-2 or suffer a potential lynch. Not responding to such pressure is considered scummy. No threat, no results, no game....just wild ass guesses, done at random on a whim.

[chapcrap]

First of all, thanks strike for jumping in. Glad that it's still Day 1 when it had to happen.

The chapcrap vote going back that far is odd but could just be coincidence since Chap has rolefished, I believe twice since then.

I'm not sure when I rolefished. I already addressed this, but I will again. I initially just wanted to get the game going, get out of the joke stage. Mostly because I missed mafia. Maybe I did that poorly, but my discussion was about game mechanics and role breakdown. Not rolefishing. But also, because I've been gone for so long that I didn't feel like I could really take an earnest part in the joking because I don't really have deep relationships with most of the players here.

Evidence: https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewt ... 6#p5075768 and https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewt ... 2#p5081004 and https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewt ... 6#p5081726 and
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewt ... 5#p5082305

Also, I as maybe some in this game can verify, I earnestly inquired about joining DBD when I recently came back solely because of mafia. I think that's part of why this game is going. I'm so happy and thankful that it is. That being said, I genuinely haven't played in FOREVER. If the forum search function worked still, we could see when I last played, but I have come to find through the discussion here, that my initial feelings have been noobish. Like may day 1 lynch stance, which I flip-flopped on with cogent discussion by others.

Other than that, I don't think you really said I did anything scummy. I didn't rolefish.

[Sirius Kase]

Welcome Strike, glad you are here. You aren't in danger yet, I have no reason to want you lynched, so I'll remove the vote meant for your predecessor.

unvote

[dakky21]

Welcome Strike, glad you are here. You aren't in danger yet, I have no reason to want you lynched, so I'll remove the vote meant for your predecessor.

You do understand that Strike inherited the role of his predecessor? So if you had something on Darin, it would still be worth. So when you say you do not have a reason to lynch Strike, it means you didn't have a reason for Darin as well.

[pershy]

I actually believe Pershy on his absence. The job excuse would explain why he seems more active on the weekends. It's his rushed posts coming back that have me unsettled. It basically felt like he voted JFM because he had the most votes not for any legitimate reason.

Well actually yes that was the reason I voted jfm, because time was almost up and he happened to be the one with votes on him and he wasn't claiming and because it is in town's interest to get a lynch on D1. Am I the only one who thinks this? That in itself is a legitimate reason. As legitimate as you can get on D1. There is no particularly good reason to vote anyone, we are all still very much in the dark apart from scum.
Anyway since he claimed I unvoted because I believe him.

[pershy]

yes welcome Strike

[Pikanchion]

Unvote: jfm10

Seeing as the two remaining wagons with any semblance of traction are Metsfanmax & chapcrap...

I've looked back at every single post made by Metsfanmax, and the vote for chapcrap was Metsfanmax's first post of the game. chapcrap had made two posts at that time, the first being that which Metsfanmax took issue with for being "a blatant attempt to gain town cred early on", so... hardly the scummiest thing in the world. I would also disagree that said post had nothing of value: "How many of us are playing to win the mafia game and how many are attempting to win credits?" is actually an interesting question, and one that may well become a topic of discussion if certain things pan out the way I expect them to. As an aside, the second of chapcrap's posts was the one I took issue with.

Following the initial post, every single one of Metsfanmax's other posts until the recent one on page 14 have either been against chapcrap, a quibble over specifics, or only implicitly accusatory. The explicit accusations of both Skoffin and pershy in the aforementioned page 14 post coming entirely out of the blue, and only because they were prompted by a direct question from BuJaber. The problem here is that while such focusing might be fairly scummy in isolation, chapcrap did OMGUS on a fairly flimsy pretence, and since then Metsfanmax seems to have largely disregarded openly suspecting others.

Looking at chapcrap's posts there are certainly things I do consider to have been suspect, as I've stated. However, I also realise that while Metsfanmax's constant attacks have pushed chapcrap into having to defend almost every point they make, despite this chapcrap has made an effort to discuss other things happening in the thread, and it's giving me a bit of a town feeling towards chapcrap. Earlier in the game, I held a similar feeling with regards to Metsfanmax, but the way they've focused against chapcrap in the meantime has caused me to doubt this, especially after the response we got to BuJaber's question.

Vote: Metsfanmax

[TX AG 90]

Is it too early or the right time to speculate on whether there is a 3rd party?

I know we are on a time crunch if we want to D1 lynch someone and don't want to muddle that progress. But, if discussing 3rd party possibilities helps, I'll chime in.

I'll hold my thoughts unless I get some encouragement to post them.

[Pikanchion]

If there is a benign third party we shouldn't care too much, if there's a hostile third party then we likely won't have any way to tell until multiple kills happen during a single night. Either way what could we possibly discuss about them given we do not know if they exist, what they can do, or what their objective is?

[TX AG 90]

My ability is "prevent all attacks against your target"

I have been trying to tell yous i am town and i just get the you must be scum for giving out info on yourself.My ability is weak at the beginning of the game as i have a less than 7% chance of picking the scums target unless i make myself the target and then they waste thier night.

I have no choice now but to target myself every night but atleast town now knows that i can only be lynched.Also note attacks is plural so you can count on vigilantes in this game.

I'm starting to have 2nd thoughts about jfm. I have been advocating early that I though he was town, but why would he post this? It's scummy at worst or hurts the town at best. Even if he wasn't lynched, we would have found out information if he was a N1 Kill. BY posting this, we can only draw 2 conclusions if he doesn't - 1) He saved himself or 2) he is Scum. Since we don't know which one it is, we have not gained any information about his alignment and we are back to where we are now minus 1 townie that was probably killed at night.

Therefore, because it either gives us more information or lynches a scum, I am now advocating for a jfm lynch. Sorry jfm, you did it to yourself.

Unvote chapcrap
Vote jfm

Also, one of the defenses of jfm has been that soft claiming is a noobie town mistake. Couldn't it also be considered a noobie scum mistake?

[TX AG 90]

If there is a benign third party we shouldn't care too much, if there's a hostile third party then we likely won't have any way to tell until multiple kills happen during a single night. Either way what could we possibly discuss about them given we do not know if they exist, what they can do, or what their objective is?

Is it possible to have a 3rd party that is hostile to both scum and town?

[Metsfanmax]

Unvote: jfm10

Seeing as the two remaining wagons with any semblance of traction are Metsfanmax & chapcrap...

I've looked back at every single post made by Metsfanmax, and the vote for chapcrap was Metsfanmax's first post of the game. chapcrap had made two posts at that time, the first being that which Metsfanmax took issue with for being "a blatant attempt to gain town cred early on", so... hardly the scummiest thing in the world.

You don't think blatant attempts to gain town cred are scummy? Fascinating.

I would also disagree that said post had nothing of value: "How many of us are playing to win the mafia game and how many are attempting to win credits?" is actually an interesting question, and one that may well become a topic of discussion if certain things pan out the way I expect them to.

Oh yeah? Do you think people are going to come out and say "eh I don't give a shit about winning, I'm just here for the conquer credits?" It might be an interesting question but it's not one that adds any value to the game to voice.

As an aside, the second of chapcrap's posts was the one I took issue with.

I also took issue with that second post, as this post makes clear. I just thought it was less scummy than the first so it wasn't the focus of my vote.

Following the initial post, every single one of Metsfanmax's other posts until the recent one on page 14 have either been against chapcrap, a quibble over specifics, or only implicitly accusatory.

This is a blatant misrepresentation of my posting record. I had several posts on other topics, including dakky's choice to instantly go after jfm, and I criticized several other people for the jfm wagon as well, including yourself. (Who, I'll note, gave "one of the clearest possible indications that somebody is scum" according to you, and who you have nevertheless just unvoted.) It's true that I didn't accuse people other than chapcrap and Ragian of being scummy, but to imply that chapcrap is the only substantial thing I've talked about is false.

The explicit accusations of both Skoffin and pershy in the aforementioned page 14 post coming entirely out of the blue, and only because they were prompted by a direct question from BuJaber.

A post cannot be both "out of the blue" and "prompted." These words are intentionally twisted so as to make me look bad, even though they make no sense together.

Looking at chapcrap's posts there are certainly things I do consider to have been suspect, as I've stated.

I find it interesting that you comment on how I've been narrowly focused, while neglecting to point out that chap has also not really made any substantial cases against anyone other than me (and even that one was flimsy, as you noted). He expressed skepticism of jfm (like everyone else in the game) and called out pershy for his weird vote (like everyone else in the game). That's... about it.

However, I also realise that while Metsfanmax's constant attacks have pushed chapcrap into having to defend almost every point they make, despite this chapcrap has made an effort to discuss other things happening in the thread, and it's giving me a bit of a town feeling towards chapcrap. Earlier in the game, I held a similar feeling with regards to Metsfanmax, but the way they've focused against chapcrap in the meantime has caused me to doubt this, especially after the response we got to BuJaber's question.

So I chose to discuss something other than chapcrap, and the result is you being even more convinced that the only thing I have to talk about is chapcrap?

[BuJaber]

unvote

and finally we get some kind of claim. Looks like a blocker of some kind.
OK thanks Jfm - I think his claim seems legit to me.

More rookie mentoring needed again.

Can someone please explain to me why it is in town's favor to lynch on D1? I keep hearing it's because we get more information, but aren't we only getting information on the person we lynched? They're now gone, how does that help?

well obviously you get info from how they flip. If scum then bonus! But if town which is only likely at least on D1 and probably on D2 as well, then you can at look at who voted them and when and try and make some conclusions.

I for now am satisfied with jfm's claim.

If we get an extension we might be able to pressure someone else. Otherwise we probably won't have time and at least can rely on night actions to bring some info.
As I mentioned I personally would like to pressure Dakky,

But that's just based on a gut feeling. I suppose the likely candidates based on current votes to get any traction are chapcrap or mets or possibly myself according to what a few people have said. I personally don't find chapcrap scummy.
But there probably isn't time unless the mod grants another couple of days I guess. I feel we have had a fairly productive D1 at least and we have got one claim which cleared jfm in my eyes at least for now. Seems a fitting ability for this game - especially the detail of the ability starting weak and getting stronger. Seemed legit to me.

I actually believe Pershy on his absence. The job excuse would explain why he seems more active on the weekends. It's his rushed posts coming back that have me unsettled. It basically felt like he voted JFM because he had the most votes not for any legitimate reason.

Well actually yes that was the reason I voted jfm, because time was almost up and he happened to be the one with votes on him and he wasn't claiming and because it is in town's interest to get a lynch on D1. Am I the only one who thinks this? That in itself is a legitimate reason. As legitimate as you can get on D1. There is no particularly good reason to vote anyone, we are all still very much in the dark apart from scum.
Anyway since he claimed I unvoted because I believe him.

Pretty sure this is a scum reaction.

Feels the need to state that he believes the claim 4 times. Really? 4 times just in case someone missed the first 3 times he said it in the same page.

And the part that he "especially" believes is basically the least alignment indicative part of the whole thing. Mafia can do math. In fact it's one of the easiest ways to look legit. Use a probability argument.

There is like 0 reason to believe him after the full claim if you didn't believe him after the soft claim.
1. Not everyone has had a chance to counter claim. He didn't even post the actual name.
2. There's nothing about that description that makes it a town-only role.
3. Given that he claimed a protective earlier, this wasn't that big of a reveal. Nothing very revealing.

So all in all this looks like scum that was just waiting for a reason to 'believe' him.

For deadlinee reasons I'm going to be voting for whichever wagon has more votes. Pershy or mets. Also because because this doesn't change my read on mets obviously. But pershy is caught scum I believe.

[dakky21]

I actually agree with TX, claimed role of "protector" who can protect himself is a double edged sword. Even if jfm is telling the truth and is town and protects himself, anything except a lynch will ever prove that. Why would anyone say the contradicting - "unless i make myself the target and then they waste thier night" and then "I have no choice now but to target myself every night" ... so if he is telling the truth, he gave away the crucial town information which will lead to another town being killed every night. And if he is scum, he got a free pass to the endgame. My vote stays on jfm.

As I said Pershy could be scum with jfm and voted him to "stick" to the group.

[TX AG 90]

unvote

and finally we get some kind of claim. Looks like a blocker of some kind.
OK thanks Jfm - I think his claim seems legit to me.

More rookie mentoring needed again.

Can someone please explain to me why it is in town's favor to lynch on D1? I keep hearing it's because we get more information, but aren't we only getting information on the person we lynched? They're now gone, how does that help?

well obviously you get info from how they flip. If scum then bonus! But if town which is only likely at least on D1 and probably on D2 as well, then you can at look at who voted them and when and try and make some conclusions.

I for now am satisfied with jfm's claim.

If we get an extension we might be able to pressure someone else. Otherwise we probably won't have time and at least can rely on night actions to bring some info.
As I mentioned I personally would like to pressure Dakky,

But that's just based on a gut feeling. I suppose the likely candidates based on current votes to get any traction are chapcrap or mets or possibly myself according to what a few people have said. I personally don't find chapcrap scummy.
But there probably isn't time unless the mod grants another couple of days I guess. I feel we have had a fairly productive D1 at least and we have got one claim which cleared jfm in my eyes at least for now. Seems a fitting ability for this game - especially the detail of the ability starting weak and getting stronger. Seemed legit to me.

I actually believe Pershy on his absence. The job excuse would explain why he seems more active on the weekends. It's his rushed posts coming back that have me unsettled. It basically felt like he voted JFM because he had the most votes not for any legitimate reason.

Well actually yes that was the reason I voted jfm, because time was almost up and he happened to be the one with votes on him and he wasn't claiming and because it is in town's interest to get a lynch on D1. Am I the only one who thinks this? That in itself is a legitimate reason. As legitimate as you can get on D1. There is no particularly good reason to vote anyone, we are all still very much in the dark apart from scum.
Anyway since he claimed I unvoted because I believe him.

Pretty sure this is a scum reaction.

Feels the need to state that he believes the claim 4 times. Really? 4 times just in case someone missed the first 3 times he said it in the same page.

And the part that he "especially" believes is basically the least alignment indicative part of the whole thing. Mafia can do math. In fact it's one of the easiest ways to look legit. Use a probability argument.

There is like 0 reason to believe him after the full claim if you didn't believe him after the soft claim.
1. Not everyone has had a chance to counter claim. He didn't even post the actual name.
2. There's nothing about that description that makes it a town-only role.
3. Given that he claimed a protective earlier, this wasn't that big of a reveal. Nothing very revealing.

So all in all this looks like scum that was just waiting for a reason to 'believe' him.

For deadlinee reasons I'm going to be voting for whichever wagon has more votes. Pershy or mets. Also because because this doesn't change my read on mets obviously. But pershy is caught scum I believe.

If pershy is scummy, wouldn't his defense of jfm strengthen the argument to lynch jfm (and vice versa)? And since he was also defending chapcrap, a FoS could be pointed that way too.