Once Upon A Killer Mafia (14/17) A Writers Block:Endgame

[UltrasPlot]

Hmm... I seem to have missed crasp's non-filler posts. Seems to be contributing, guess I can drop that 30% a bit.

Upon review dd's post that "after we start a bandwagon you jump on" when he was doing the same thing is very scummy. (FoS)

Explanation within 24 hours or lynch. I mean it.

[Zivel]

Storr give me a couple minutes to check. (I like how everyone lynching me has pretty much not posted for a while...)

I am on my phone. My home Internet is down.... I am in severe withdrawal..... and posting anything of substance on my phone sucks. But can you please at least read my posts and rebutt my reasons before calling my voting on you a sheeping of storr.

Personally I would like to see those who have not voted put a vote out. A real vote with a reason. Half the players in this game are absent or not engaging and that hurts town.

[StorrZerg]

ok, lets converse zivel, you pick the person.

if not, then Pancakemix he hasn't posted that much.

[Zivel]

ok, lets converse zivel, you pick the person.

if not, then Pancakemix he hasn't posted that much.

Ok, so the 6 who have not voted are PCM, Mtam, Aage, Whatsausage, Strike and virus.

PCM I am finding that the feeling of his posts are playing down any of the conversations happening, this is easy to day 1 as we are pretty much strawmanning arguments and throwing shit around everywhere. That does not mean I like it, I find it anti town to shut these conversations down or dismiss then easily, it seems a cop out to me. He does not want to engage in any real conversation.... not sure if this is his meta as I am a shocking meta player but it is a site meta so could well be.

This is his most substantial post and in it is actually very little substance:

personally i don't even have a read on on you............... all your nl talk its null and doesn't mean anything imo. since i believe that to be a policy you would follow regardless of your alignment. since that is something you are used to on another forum.

I don't buy this. You have to have some type of opinion on him one way or another, and your opinion of the NL argument can easily become your opinion on Ultra. You, who make mountains out of molehills, HAVE to feel some way about Ultra's play.

I agree with the sentiment on fake claims, it won't change day 1, all information is welcome but the mod refuses so end of story. Pushing the mod for it after he deliberately dodged the question is weird though, like you're trying to prove you're trying to help the town without running the risk of actually helping the town. So Strike and pcm, slightly scummy behaviour.

I've always been partial to straight answers, personally. It's the kind of thing where a question mark only helps the mafia, because all it does is add another level of uncertainty regarding claims.

As a mod, I tend to believe coming up with believable fakeclaims is a vital skill for mafia, so if there aren't any fakes or even partial fakes it's neither here nor there. It'dd just be nice to know, dontcha think?

Rishaed honestly shouldn't answer how he is going to enforce it. Since this should never happen. If we approach the end of a day phase (ffs they are 10 daydays long) so 24-48 hours, I'm sure we will have narrowed what to do.

Honestly it be nice to have a lynch before wed. But activity level from half the players is terrible.

That's stupid. It's like not having a contingency for who succeeds a dying president because it SHOULDN'T happen. You have a similar rule in your games about lynches without majority; how often do those get invoked?

Yes, we should lynch someone rather than having Rish do it, but what happens if he has to should be defined. Why would you not want it defined?

(said definition had been posted before I got that far in the thread)

Seems to be taking technical rather than scum hunting.

Your turn, what do you think of whatsausage?

[StorrZerg]

he is in the game?

[StorrZerg]

j/k get to him (Started getting a little busy)

[Zivel]

I have my internets back!

[StorrZerg]

really don't have that much on him. the one thing i do have, which i don't like is the manner of which he asks questions. The follow up seems to be lacking, and there is no continuation of discussion. Its mostly just him quoting someone, but not following up with it.

So what do you want me to do lol?

I have a town read on him

You could explain that town read

So like this, i did, yet he doesn't have any comment?

First off, my goodness some of you are grasping hardcore at nothing when you are actually accusing anark for his very early "let's all jump on pcm" joke. You've got to be kidding me if you took that as a serious idea.

God you bleed town anamainiacks

Have to agree, that was a solid first post and explained coherently why we vote day one.

I am still pushing for an Ultra lynch, he has not come back to defend himself and so is either afk or lurking. Till I hear more from him, I am happy for him to die today.

Will come back later after shopping with a more comprehensive list.

So because he had a post agreeing with you he bleeds town? Most of his post was meta-based (the benefits of lynching D1) and that is normally the type of thing you like to jump on. What gives? That wasn't questioning/ pressuring/ giving reads.

And then zivel hops right on to agree as well.
Followed by promising a list we have yet to see (I'd give him more time on it, but it has been a decently long shopping trip)

Right now I am getting scum vibes from zivel

Fp'd by storr
somewhat talks about my question

Seems that it wasn't worth the effort to revise his post since i posted before him. again, he sees what i posted before hand, and it answers some questions, but no follow up.
what didnt i respond to? why isn't he interested in that?

[StorrZerg]

yeah i agree on pcm atm. last game he was a lot more willing to throw his vote out, and a bit more verbal on what he wanted to do in the game.


Anyone have thoughts on Virus? i know he only has one post but yeah

[Zivel]

Zivel: 50% Mafia,

I like Stors play at least he is doing something, and poking the angry bear Mtam is always going to get something happening. Stor is town, Mtam I can't read so I dont know. Strike probably has the right idea of keeping his head down, but meh. Day one is boring if you don't start some strawman arguments. Pancake is boring scum. I mean, he comes in and says the party is going to start and then tells off the only two at the bloody party.

Day one can be a drag, but those that don't want to participate in it volunteer themselves for a lynching to get it over quicker imo. No lynch in day one is bad for town.

Lynch with empty post, gj, bandwagon.

Weak arse read that shows you have not read a thing I have posted. I am not bandwagoning you I am following a case on you. Your continual defence of a No Lynch and the fact that you say you have experience in this game only leads me to one conclusion. You know what you are doing, you know that a No Lynch is good for scum and so you are trying to push it on a town that you think you know more than.

I will quote you my post again hopefully so you can read it this time:

Right, I will do some simple stats but I will put it in a spoiler because it actually has little to do with the game and its a wall of text. If you stats majors and physics students want to pull it apart go for it but the basic premise is that no lynching day one loses town a mislynch:

Spoiler

Firstly I am going to do this completely vanilla as including power roles from either side is assuming to much imo.

Lets assume 12 town v 5 mafia:
Day 1: No lynch day one then it becomes 11v5 or if we lynch a townie it is 10v5 with one mislynch
From now on all we do is lynch town.
Day 2: 9v5 one mislynch or 8v5 with two mislynchs
Day 3: 7v5 two mislynchs or 6v5 with three mislynchs
Day 4: Its over either way.

If we lynch day one we have one extra mislynch. (Side note, this is why most mods will aim for an uneven number to start with.)

Taking into consideration power roles is assuming too much, there is too much randomness with peoples personalities. Last game (PvP mafia) we had someone call a cop check day one and we lynched him to check it was true. A cop check is not a given assistance to town.

Our chance to hit a mafia day one is 33% chance, that is high enough for me to roll the dice and random lynch. Throw in a 3 party and this becomes much higher and more in our favor and the stats about about mislynch above become much worse.

Lastly and probably most importantly, we have to lynch scum. With no lynching we are not going to win. Scum kill don't have to lynch, with no lynching they are going to win.

PS no stats major or shit here, just some basic maths and google.

The options I see with you are
Smart scum pushing a no lynch because it good for scum.
Or dumb town pushing a no lynch because you falsely assume it is good for town.

Your choice....

[StorrZerg]

zivel... the 3rd option is its policy for him regardless of his alignment.
so he would do it as any.. thing to note is, he seems to have given in that a lynch may happen, so he is at least forthcoming with reads right now, which is good

we really shouldn't be talking about no lynch any more since imo the majority of people would like to see a lynch, so we can move on from that.

[strike wolf]

Too drunk to post coherentally. Probably wont vote ultra. Some new suspicions. Hopefully post more tomorrow when I am sober.

[Zivel]

I wholeheartedly agree. I think Ultra needs to accept that a no lynch is not going to happen and put a real vote out there.

FPed buy drunk strike.

[UltrasPlot]

following a case

^ is a euphemism for bandwagoning

You know what you are doing, you know that a No Lynch is good for scum and so you are trying to push it on a town that you think you know more than.

^ Only in games with Night Zero are they definitively good for scum Day One

I UL'd NL already - apparently you're still lynching me?

Lynch dd
^ Pressure.

[pancakemix]

pcm when your going to quote a partial pm, please include who said the quote, some of it isn't out right obvious.

as for ultra he has since actually made reads on the game, and i did comment. why are you skimming and nit picking needlessly? I've probably put forth the most reads out of anyone as of this point, and you attack when i have "yet to form an opinion on someone"

Mod has announced what will happen at end of day. So it isn't "him deciding" its still, who ever holds the most votes even if it isn't majority.

Because that's extremely unlike you to you have no opinion on someone who has been posting extensively. Even if you did form an opinion later, it's null with regard to my comment because 1) I comment as I read, so anything you do later won't affect what I've already written, and 2) You didn't have one when I was commenting and ultra has been not only contributing, but a center of attention. How am I supposed to disregard an assessment (or lack thereof) of that nature from you?

At what point did I talk about the mod deciding anything? People were looking for clarification and you were saying it shouldn't happen. That doesn't make sense.

PCM I am finding that the feeling of his posts are playing down any of the conversations happening, this is easy to day 1 as we are pretty much strawmanning arguments and throwing shit around everywhere. That does not mean I like it, I find it anti town to shut these conversations down or dismiss then easily, it seems a cop out to me. He does not want to engage in any real conversation.... not sure if this is his meta as I am a shocking meta player but it is a site meta so could well be.

Well, for one, thanks for missing my long post a few pages back that's easily more substantial than the one you posted. Interestingly, it points to you as one of the people foolishly making a case on Nark for his "case" on me. Coincidence?

As for downplaying arguments, I'm just playing devil's advocate. Is there a problem with that? Yes, it's D1 and any argument is going to be weak, but shouldn't they at least hold to some counterargument? If you want your discussion taken seriously, it needs to have a comeback to being responded to. Or better yet, if you want me to engage in conversation, engage me.

[UltrasPlot]

As for why DD:

• I am of the opinion that too many mafia have already voted for me to hammer, because it was quite safe for a while. With hammer = 8 and votes on ultra = 5, we can assume that mafia not voting for me < 3 bc there was evidently town doing the exact same thing (and town had not really noticed yet, and it would have been easy to pass off a poli lynch given how you guys hate nl.) Which leaves most likely in the people voting for me 2 mafia out of 5 - which means if we want to randlynch chances are best there.
• dd seemed to have the most meaningless lynch post out of all that are lynching me, and as Storr said, disappeared, possibly trying to stay under the radar.

Also remember that I get lynched (and js we lose another if I get lynched... one with an important role...) if I have the most votes by deadline, since plurality seems to apply.

[crasp]

Sorry guys, at work and had to catch up with games before i came here. Way too much for a break to take in. Did see virus has checked in so unvote.

[Anarkistsdream]

So, this really irks me... I bother to write a very good post, putting ideas out there and so forth. And the only thing I get in return is Mtam and Storr arguing the most rudimentary and ignorant rhetorical and semantic words, leaving all ofthe substance I placed in that post out so that they can bandy a few words and lead us down the path of nowhere... Great job, guys, way to totally miss the point.

Once Upon a Killer Mafia... Not Killers... Are we not jumping the gun just a bit to NOT surmise that only one killer exists, and the rest of us are trying to find him? A few cops, maybe a doc, a couple of Trackers, maybe... Just enough to really gum up the works when that ONE killer goes around and starts taking us down. We see that Player X was killed, but three different players saw Two or Three different players visit him...

See, Storr, you may claim I was "rolefishing," but that was the point of my last post... You know, the one you blatantly ignored so you could continue arguing semantics and looking immature. But, as no one will look past the obvious, here, I am forced to post a bit more bluntly... (But look how clever you are... )

This is also why your attacking each and every player could very well end up as a waste of our time and effort... And your FORCING the No Lynch by trying to create some sort of stigma around it is also ridiculous...

Maybe we have TWO killers... Maybe a paranoid gun owner and a Serial Killer... But the point is we DO have a serial killer... And they don't have to work together.

[aage]

I agree with the sentiment on fake claims, it won't change day 1, all information is welcome but the mod refuses so end of story. Pushing the mod for it after he deliberately dodged the question is weird though, like you're trying to prove you're trying to help the town without running the risk of actually helping the town. So Strike and pcm, slightly scummy behaviour.

I've always been partial to straight answers, personally. It's the kind of thing where a question mark only helps the mafia, because all it does is add another level of uncertainty regarding claims.

As a mod, I tend to believe coming up with believable fakeclaims is a vital skill for mafia, so if there aren't any fakes or even partial fakes it's neither here nor there. It'dd just be nice to know, dontcha think?

Doesn't matter if it's nice to know if the mod already dodged the question, pushing for an answer isn't going to help. This is not a matter of democracy, it's just what the mod decides, and the mod had decided. You and strike responded after Rishaed's reply, which is useless. That's what's scummy. I don't care for your intentions, and I'm afraid no defence from you or strike is going to change that. Basically:

Seems to be taking technical rather than scum hunting.

^This.


From what I can gather Storr has a soft town read on Ultra, correct me if I'm wrong. That makes it all the more interesting to lynch Ultra, as his flip will help us determine what we think of Storr's actions.


In-post reply:

So, this really irks me... I bother to write a very good post, putting ideas out there and so forth. And the only thing I get in return is Mtam and Storr arguing the most rudimentary and ignorant rhetorical and semantic words, leaving all ofthe substance I placed in that post out so that they can bandy a few words and lead us down the path of nowhere... Great job, guys, way to totally miss the point.
You mean this post? It doesn't discuss the game at all, nor put forward relevant ideas. You talk about game mechanics, pro-town plays you don't really enjoy and flavour, which the mod forbids us to talk about.

Once Upon a Killer Mafia... Not Killers... Are we not jumping the gun just a bit to NOT surmise that only one killer exists, and the rest of us are trying to find him? A few cops, maybe a doc, a couple of Trackers, maybe... Just enough to really gum up the works when that ONE killer goes around and starts taking us down. We see that Player X was killed, but three different players saw Two or Three different players visit him...
More speculation that is irrelevant on D1. First off, if you're going to speculate on the roles, read the opening post: "I've tried to make this game as balanced as possible, but expect crazy things to go on." That defeats your entire speculation (also, second time I quoted the opening post to you, maybe you should read it). Secondly, there is no point discussing the actions for N1 before it has passed. Thirdly, you didn't mention any of this in your previous post so I don't see the point of saying "way to totally miss the point" when you never made the point.

See, Storr, you may claim I was "rolefishing," but that was the point of my last post... You know, the one you blatantly ignored so you could continue arguing semantics and looking immature. But, as no one will look past the obvious, here, I am forced to post a bit more bluntly... (But look how clever you are... )
Actually, I was the guy claiming you were rolefishing, skim much.

This is also why your attacking each and every player could very well end up as a waste of our time and effort... And your FORCING the No Lynch by trying to create some sort of stigma around it is also ridiculous...
Explain what you mean with forcing the no lynch. Storr hasn't advocated no lynch once.

Maybe we have TWO killers... Maybe a paranoid gun owner and a Serial Killer... But the point is we DO have a serial killer... And they don't have to work together.
/speculation, see above.

@Ultra
I don't see why your theory about the amount of mafia voting you matters because as far as I know you could be scum. Basically you're just saying OMGUS in a more complicated way. I don't understand why you would add that to your "case" on someone who as far as we know isn't posting or even reading.

[aage]

Double post

By the way, don't take my posts too personal, upon rereading I see I'm being a bit cold. I'm here to have fun with the game, and I don't want to ruin yours.

[Army of GOD]

@Ultra
I don't see why your theory about the amount of mafia voting you matters because as far as I know you could be scum. Basically you're just saying OMGUS in a more complicated way. I don't understand why you would add that to your "case" on someone who as far as we know isn't posting or even reading.

I think it makes sense. Scum could easily use the "he voted no lynch D1!!!one!!!" excuse to throw a vote on him (or me, since I did the same thing).

I don't know if I'd go further than a FOS, but the vote makes sense.

[anamainiacks]

Sorry for my absence, it's been a long week, and I'll be on vacation from today till Tuesday, so I'm gonna try and squeeze in a post with what little time I have.

First off, I did catch this:

As for those that are supporting me there is still a possibility of mafia within them. Army of GOD could want the immediate NL without any discussion whatsoever, which was not my intent. For all I know, they might be mafia reading neutral off me and trying to lure me to their side. For now this is gonna be my reads, might post more soon.

and do note that Ultras has since been actively participating in the discussion, which does negate the reason behind my vote (pushing NL without proper discussion for town). Then again, it doesn't remove the possibility that it was truly just a scum play, and he's now undoing his actions after it was clear the town wasn't going to move in the direction of NL so quickly. WIFOM arguments, but for now I shall still unvote.

• I am of the opinion that too many mafia have already voted for me to hammer, because it was quite safe for a while. With hammer = 8 and votes on ultra = 5, we can assume that mafia not voting for me < 3 bc there was evidently town doing the exact same thing (and town had not really noticed yet, and it would have been easy to pass off a poli lynch given how you guys hate nl.) Which leaves most likely in the people voting for me 2 mafia out of 5 - which means if we want to randlynch chances are best there.

Hammer is 9, if I'm not wrong. And to be fair, if 9 people (town and/or scum) did pull a speedlynch on you, then it'd be going against our very reasoning for the votes - that you were possibly trying to end the day without a discussion. It would've been fairly obvious that anyone who pulled the final hammer on you would be scum if you were to flip town. So either way I don't think they would've gone for it. I'm not saying your estimates are definitely wrong - I'm saying this doesn't actually give us an indicator of anything. Though of course I wouldn't be surprised if a 1 or 2 scum jumped on the wagon to help give it some momentum.

But then again as aage just mentioned, you could still be scum and all this reasoning would be for naught anyway.

-----

@Anark
The speculation on number of killers and roles at this point is pretty baseless, as well as pointless. (I don't think rishaed would've named the game 'Once Upon A Killers Mafia' or 'Once Upon The Killers Mafia' even if there is more than one killer - based on grammar and keeping to the clear reference to the phrase 'Once Upon A Time'.) There's no point really speculating what goes on at night when we haven't even had a single night.

You're also complaining that people didn't notice when you "bothered to write a very good post", as if you needed people to notice and take note that you were a contributing townie? It strikes me slightly as though you're a scum trying to tell us, "Please take note when I act town and contribute constructively!" With the pace of the posts in this game, it's only natural that some posts might get left out and uncommented on. So the way to respond to that is to keep making "very good posts", or restate an issue if you think it's important and should be discussed.

Since you mentioned it, I'll ask about this part of your said "very good post":

Now, I know a few of us have more inside information on this game then others... I think it is prudent that we don't spend day after day watching Storr attack- er, I mean "analyze"- other players styles because they don't play like him. Instead, we need to try and work out what info people already have and start from there. It will be much more helpful in the later stages of the game, especially if people with info are killed, which is most likely the case. So, with that being said, instead of worrying about sane cops, insane cops, busdrivers, blah blah blah... What can people concretely give us about the game??? Because I know at least a few of you have more info, and, if you are town or third-party that can win with town, it would behoove you to come forward with it. Until then, I think the only thing that is really going to help us progress in this game is Night One...

What sort of "more info" is there to give other than your role? Even if anyone was provided with more information, it'd likely be connected to the player's role. Even if there was more information to give, how would it help us on Day 1 when no night activity has taken place? Even if someone were to tell us, "There is a Serial Killer in the game," would that change the way we're doing things now? Sounds to me like you were hoping people would softclaim. Sounds scummy to me. FOS anark.

FP'ed by AoG

[mtamburini]

Im going to have to re read this entire day again on Monday, some RL issues came up today and wont be back until then. I think Zivel is town now after his last couple posts. Dont have time to explain but will on Monday.

[UltrasPlot]

From what I can gather Storr has a soft town read on Ultra, correct me if I'm wrong. That makes it all the more interesting to lynch Ultra, as his flip will help us determine what we think of Storr's actions.

Why bother with me if Storr has a much more powerful read on crasp? That argument has zero sense whatsoever. You're pretty much purposefully lynching me because this is your best chance at a townie lynch.

I don't see why your theory about the amount of mafia voting you matters because as far as I know you could be scum. Basically you're just saying OMGUS in a more complicated way.

As far as I know you're mafia too. And I think I can safely assume I'm town, I'm not blind.

I think I made it clear I'm still in favor of a NL. (Also if that were my intent I wouldn't have held out this long arguing for the NL.) However the bandwagon on me has developed some interesting implications.

FYI: Town loses more than a vote if I die.

[rishaed]

Vote Count:

Storrzerg (1) - Anarkistsdream
Ultrasplot (4) - Hotshot53, Streaker, Zivel, dd515087
Crasp (1) - Crazymilkshake5
dd515087 (1) - Ultrasplot
Anarkistsdream (1) - Storrzerg
NoLynch (1) - ArmyofGod

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch. Deadline is Nov 8th.