Roll Cheats?

[b.k. barunt]

"Bad rolls happen as often as good rolls". Not! Case in point - the first turn of the game. I'm sure anyone who has played will agree that the odds are against the attacker on that first 6-3 roll. Or am i the only one on the site that has missed cards on that first turn more than 50% of the time?

[vtmarik]

"Bad rolls happen as often as good rolls". Not! Case in point - the first turn of the game. I'm sure anyone who has played will agree that the odds are against the attacker on that first 6-3 roll. Or am i the only one on the site that has missed cards on that first turn more than 50% of the time?

Bad rolls do happen as often as good rolls, but the bad rolls stick out in your head more. It's the losses that affect our minds the most. This is elementary psychology.

[alster]

my posts have in no way been about predicting or tweaking anything. The point I was trying to get across (and it is aimed at the people who think the dice generator has generated 9 straight 1's) is that if the dice are generated in the way I say, then even though you have 9 straight 1's, that doesn't mean that the generator has produced 9 straight 1's.

I'm afraid I can't explain any better than I have, but I know what I am talking about.
And thats not meant to be as cocky as it sounds, it just means I can't get it across to you.

Well, excuse me your highness… Are we in a grumpy mood today?

It’s perfectly clear what you mean. However, that still won’t help you (or anyone else to predict the dice). I’m sorry for actually using your idea in the conversation, I didn’t know you didn’t intend for it to be discussed. Shall we make our points again or can we leave it at this?

[alster]

"Bad rolls happen as often as good rolls". Not! Case in point - the first turn of the game. I'm sure anyone who has played will agree that the odds are against the attacker on that first 6-3 roll. Or am i the only one on the site that has missed cards on that first turn more than 50% of the time?

Bullshit. Whenever I loose the 6-3 roll in round one, I’m surprised. As I should be, since that’s a roll I statistically have a fairly good chance of winning.

[podge]

No alstergren I am not grumpy today. but I would like to know why you keep insisting it is no help to me.In all of my posts not once have I asked for help or tried to tweak the system. Yet you insist on misreading what I am saying. It is just very very frustrating. You can quote me anywhere where I have asked for or implied that I want anything other than to try and get my point across.

[alster]

No alstergren I am not grumpy today. but I would like to know why you keep insisting it is no help to me.In all of my posts not once have I asked for help or tried to tweak the system. Yet you insist on misreading what I am saying. It is just very very frustrating. You can quote me anywhere where I have asked for or implied that I want anything other than to try and get my point across.

Calm down mate. I was sarcastic.

When I write, “it won’t help you” it’s not a reference to you personally. It’s a general reference that this insight/idea (which I don’t find to be unlikely, but on the other hand, I don’t know exactly how it works) is no use of wanting to twek/predict the dice.

I’m not misreading what you’re writing (as I have stated before). It’s all clear. But don’t take my posts as directed solely at you; they are aimed at the general discussion.

[podge]

From FAQ's
The dice are based on high quality random numbers from Random.org. The numbers are read from a large file containing columns of numbers from 1 to 6, in the format A1 A2 A3 D1 D2. When the dice are rolled, the game engine reads a line from the file and discards it. The appropriate numbers are used and the others are ignored. The file contains 500,000 lines of dice rolls and is re-loaded when all the lines are used up. As of November 2006 we consume 125,000 lines of dice rolls per day.

[alster]

From FAQ's
The dice are based on high quality random numbers from Random.org. The numbers are read from a large file containing columns of numbers from 1 to 6, in the format A1 A2 A3 D1 D2. When the dice are rolled, the game engine reads a line from the file and discards it. The appropriate numbers are used and the others are ignored. The file contains 500,000 lines of dice rolls and is re-loaded when all the lines are used up. As of November 2006 we consume 125,000 lines of dice rolls per day.

Then the dice isn't random.

[podge]

I suppose a lot depends on what is meant by reloaded if the same 500000 are reloaded then no. If by reloaded they mean replenished then yes.

[Evil weasel]

Random but still i have had 12 1 rolls in a row and if you think about it the odds are 1/1666666666667 or somthing like that. But i would say a few million rolls are taken a day so once in every few days someone will get 12 1s and then if that is you its just bad luck. Or we could take it further matematically and say divide the 1/1666666666667 by the ammount of players on Conquer club, at a light guess thats about 1000 so that would be 1/1666666666666667 and then if you take about 10 goes per day thats 1/166666666666667 so 1 in 166666666666667 rolls gets you 12 1s


how interesting

[alster]

I suppose a lot depends on what is meant by reloaded if the same 500000 are reloaded then no. If by reloaded they mean replenished then yes.

I assumed that the random numbers list would contain as many 1's as 2's as 3's as 4's as 5's and as 6's (just placed in a random order). If so, it isn't random. But my assumption may be wrong.

[podge]

This was the point of my original argument. the dice generator has not necerssarilly generated 12 1's consecutively. If the numbers are being drawn of a list, then there is a good chance that somebody else has drawn numbers inbetween yours.

[alster]

Random but still i have had 12 1 rolls in a row and if you think about it the odds are 1/1666666666667 or somthing like that. But i would say a few million rolls are taken a day so once in every few days someone will get 12 1s and then if that is you its just bad luck. Or we could take it further matematically and say divide the 1/1666666666667 by the ammount of players on Conquer club, at a light guess thats about 1000 so that would be 1/1666666666666667 and then if you take about 10 goes per day thats 1/166666666666667 so 1 in 166666666666667 rolls gets you 12 1s

No. That’s not the way to look at it.

Whatever kind of 12 dice you roll, the combination you get is as likely to come up as hitting 12 one rolls in a row. It has to do with the number of possible combinations. That you flinch when you see 12 one rolls in a row but not when you see a 1-6-5-2-3-5-2-2-4-1-6-3 streak is because our minds recognize patterns.

And - if doing 12 rolls, you will end up with some kind of combination. And sometimes it’s 12 one’s. Sometimes it’s 1-6-5-2-3-5-2-2-4-1-6-3. They are both as likely though.

But each roll is separate. You may roll the dices for the rest of your life and never get 12 one's in a row. But, you may as well get two such streaks next week.

[podge]

Alstergren I would imagine and I could be wrong, that random.org draws 5 numbers from 1 to 6 then draws another 5 from 1 to 6 and continues in this fashion untill the required number of sets has been reached.

[alster]

Well. Again, then it's not random. It would be random if it drew one number at a time (from 1-6) in a purely random way (which is difficult to achieve). And then not reusing any sheets.

[kwanton]

wow. i was under the impression that there was just some fat guy eating peanut butter rolling dice all day sitting at some table at CC HQ.

[Kahless]

wow. i was under the impression that there was just some fat guy eating peanut butter rolling dice all day sitting at some table at CC HQ.

Sorry Kwanton, but I've got to work during the day

[patriot_conan]

alstergren - you are actually the person that got me interested in starting this thread. after you broke through my line in africa something like 4 times in a row with the first three times being 3v3 and the fourth being 3v4 in my favour, i thought "what does he know that i don't?" ; )

note - i'm not suggesting anything untoward. alstergren is one of the finest players in this game imo.

[alster]

alstergren - you are actually the person that got me interested in starting this thread. after you broke through my line in africa something like 4 times in a row with the first three times being 3v3 and the fourth being 3v4 in my favour, i thought "what does he know that i don't?"

Oh. Well, those... That was just desperate attacks by a desperate man...

[alex_white101]

the dice always go in your favour when you dont need luck, and when you are attacking in a hope that youll be lucky. you never get it. sods law