Now that MOST of the people have reacted to Ragians demise, we have much more info analyse (provided that we don't hold to any superstition that forbids Day 1 thinking

)
Firstly: is Djfireside still playing this game? If he is he has been submarrining since Tuesday. A non-transferable
FOS Djfireside (if he is subbed than this says nothing about the role)
Secondly, a disclaimer. If there is scum to be found among the following players:
Mitch, dakky and Tim; then I fear that I am not going to be of much use in finding him out. They don't post much and keep their posts short. I haven't cought a scent of scumminess of any one of them, but I fear that says more about my inability to gather clues of their alligment from their posts (at least at this point) then about their guilt or innocence.
The remaining 9 players (discounting for the moment not-yet-replaced-Master Bush) have all reacted to Ragians demise.
Three reactions have given, at least potential, evidence in favour of writter being Town, which shall gain weight if the target of their current persecution is proven Scum. Logically, I am convinced that the best choice for for the Day 1 Rope End Dancer is among their respective targets.
1) Fircoal's vote against
Samlen
Fircoal wrote:Unvote. Vote: Samlen
It feels like you're parroting what others had said now that the coast is clear. I just find it funny that you weren't talking up a storm like DDS back when it seemed less popular but you're willing to stick your neck out NOW. Feels like weird timing to me.
This is a good catch by chu and it parallels my own thinking about Samlen. As I have indicated earlier (while I had been provoking reactions) I was curious to see whis method of damage control Samlen would choose to distance himself from Ragian and the whole "No Lynch Tolerance" party. What he did was something that I might very well choose to do, were I in his shoes and were those shoes Scummy shoes: he defiantly voted no lynch. The message that I feel he is trying to communicate is: "The 'No Lynch' cause is dear to my heart; so dear in fact that I will bravely face martyrdom to do what's right: to vote No Lynch!"
*jaw - clenched, single tear - optional*
Which is an even bigger pile of manure now then it was before Ragian's death, since now most of us (with exception of the possible investigative roles) have the same amount of information that we would have at the beginning of Day 2, to wit, one body minus the head.
As Fircoal points out, this is a weird time for Sam to stick his neck like that, which makes me think that he is not sticking it out so much as flaunting it, in what he hopes is townly manner.
FOS Samlen
2) Flores's vote against
Skoffin
Thank you for your kind words Skoffin.
So, here is why it might be groovy to lynch her:
FloresDelMal wrote:Now about the lovely but scummy skoff, i didnt realize that my vote was the fourth, but is not like i putted her at lynch -1, -2, heck not even -3, that was hardly a BW, but as things are my vote stands for now, yeah i might be joking when i say that she is ever scummy,
but putting a vote on day 1 on someone who not only scummarine a lot, but also admitted to be skimming seemed, and still seems a good and logic day 1 choice to me, oh and by the way the dead scum also admited to skim before his early dismiss heh (
classic scum signs are classic for a reason, they work 
)
This last part of Flores' quote IMO shows the flaw in the logic behind calling Day 1 lynch "random". There is such thing as scum tells. How many there are to be found depends on Scum's skill and will they be found and interpreted correctly depends on Town's skill, but the Town is far from helpless during Day 1. It's like that American saying about trespassers: "It's not the matter of 'if' - it's a matter of shooting at your bushes enough times."
Skoffin stopped posting for four days. Then I called her out on that. She came back, tried to defend herself, reacted to Flores' accusation and said he has a good feeling about dakky. That's basicaly it. Her play translates to: Avoid being lynch and scum can take care of themselves.
FOS Skoffin. Also, while emotionaly I would prefer to see if I'm right about Samlen, Skoffin is by far the most solid lynch target at this point so
unvote vote Skoffin
3) Skittles's (sharing is caring, Flores

) vote against
Minister Masket
I would like to clarify that, as a Day 1 lynch choice, I consider Masket to be a distant third behind Samlen and Skoffin. That being said, Masket's understated presence throught Day 1 makes him, at very least, more likely to be Scum then Town.
Skittles! wrote:FloresDelMal wrote:Hey there; wish i had posted sooner but i was too busy baking a cake for the day vig, woohoo way to go
Fircoal wrote:
FloresDelMal wrote:i think Skoffin is scum, what with the skimreading already and whatnot, why does she always look scummy, anyway i always think Skoffin is scum therefore unvote vote Skoff
I can't tell if this is a joke vote or not but this is the 4th vote on Skoffin. Either way it feels a bit suspisious to me.
In summary I'm slightly suspicous of Mandy and Flores. Mandy seems to be interested in a Skoffin lynch without much ryhme or reason. He also happens to be Mandy. Flores jumped in for the 4th vote without a strong case to do so, nor a manner of jokingness that usually is joined with those type of votes.
chu my dear, for getting you mixed up with MM you have my apologies, the only thing i can say in my behalf is that ive been ridiculously spacey lately, like staring into the emptiness for 2 hous spacey heh, but what i said still holds true
Now about the lovely but scummy skoff, i didnt realize that my vote was the fourth, but is not like i putted her at lynch -1, -2, heck not even -3, that was hardly a BW, but as things are my vote stands for now, yeah i might be joking when i say that she is ever scummy, but putting a vote on day 1 on someone who not only scummarine a lot, but also admitted to be skimming seemed, and still seems a good and logic day 1 choice to me, oh and by the way the dead scum also admited to skim before his early dismiss heh (classic scum signs are classic for a reason, they work

)
Ragian wrote:DDS has explained his position, which he also did in BNI.
Does anyone knows if DDS has been cleared as town in this BNI thingy; i, not really into meta but could be interesting to take into consideration, as things stand in the fishy relationship between the corpse and DDS, oh btw
FOS DDS
mandalorian2298 wrote:Confrontation, by itself serves little purpose. Only when a lynch is done, and the role of the lynched is revealed, can the confrontation be put into context, the posts and votes interpreted and the deductions made.
QFT enough been said (anymore yapping and i could suggest to mandy and dds to get a room because this starts to look like tsundere flirting to me)
Samlen wrote:
As interesting as Ragian's death is, i'm more curious as to why you've ignored the fact that I was for a day 1 no-lynch? If you're claiming to be the day vig then whatever but otherwise I'd like an answer cause hounding one player for wanting a day 1 no-lynch and ignoring another is weird at best.
Well i dont live in mandys head, but i suppose you werent granted as much attention as the corpse and DDS simply because after stating your case you werent annoyingly obsessed with repeating yourself over and over, in other words, you made your point heard but didnt preach about it, congratulations in not being a drag, and sorry if you wanted more attention
Minister Masket wrote:That's an amazing shot by whoever the Vigilante is, but I can't help feeling majorly confused about how exactly Ragian was nailed on as a valid target.
If the reasoning was the stance on mandy, then why was DDS (who pushed way harder) not the target? Or myself who held a similar view?
It makes me think it was either a completely random choice that seriously lucked out, or there's some more day action shenanigans going on behind the scenes.
Whatever the case, it makes me think that mandy is town. I can't see Ragian pushing a fellow scum partner quite that hard so early on.
ok i think he was the chosen target over you because even thought you made your case, you were very half assed about it, basically you said some diplomatic wishy washy story about being ok with no lynch, but also ok with ppl voting each other for get info out of it, is like you posted for the sake of post, but didnt want to get on anyones bad side, and seems it worked, kudos, you still smell slightly fishy to me so ill
FOS MM
And i think DDS was not chosen as a target because as opposed to your strategy he was extremely loud and out there voicing his thoughts, normally experienced scum try to keep a low profile like skoff or kwan, or look helpful to town, like throwing diplomatic non committing posts every now and then like you, but they weirdly dress themselves on neon coloured suits and bath themselves in glitter like DDS, so yeah, i dont think our vig did a random guess and lucked out, i think he or she is a great judge of character and it paid off
I agree with you on this, Flores, especially on Masket. To me, Masket seems to be in a genuine
oh shit moment, basically like "I have to play REALLY well this game because if I don't then I'm going to be caught out, like my scum buddy Ragian."
I'm actually going to
Vote Minister Masket. I'm also going to
FOS Madmitch because the latter has been trying to seem interested in the discussion yet also just positing nonsense (again...).
Skittles, if you don't mind, I would like to hear in greater detail about this inflection point where you perceive MM to have started playing really well.
And there is one other thing:
Minister Masket wrote:That's an amazing shot by whoever the Vigilante is, but I can't help feeling majorly confused about how exactly Ragian was nailed on as a valid target.
If the reasoning was the stance on mandy, then why was DDS (who pushed way harder) not the target? Or myself who held a similar view?
It makes me think it was either a completely random choice that seriously lucked out, or there's some more day action shenanigans going on behind the scenes.
This seems like a curious thing to say, doesn't it? Of course, I can only speak for myself, but I saw nothing in the Day 1 scene that would make me think "day action shenanigans going on behind the scenes". I just thought: "Wow, that Day Vig must be really good!

"
Care to elaborate on your thoguht process their, MM?