Conquer Club

I never bother with calculations, I just go by gut feel.

loutil wrote:To be clear...70 vs 9,3,3,9,3,70 is NOT less than 1%. It is actually just above 8% meaning it will succeed 1 in 12 attempts. Certainly lucky but not a 1% or 1 in 100. They would have needed to kill an additional stack of 15 to get it below 1%.

yeah I don't have the odds calculator since the site decided to screw all add ons and the firefox version. I just feel screwed when these bellow 10% stuff happen...
rockfist I rarely calculate them anymore, it's more about gut feeling of what the % is more or less.

What does LHDD have the games at right now? Just curious to compare numbers

Smthg like 10-14 or 9-16 for you guys at our last update.
1st set should finished between 9-11 and 6-14 for you according to me.

But then, what are your numbers?

in other words, we are getting ass raped so far!

Donelladan wrote:Smthg like 10-14 or 9-16 for you guys at our last update.
1st set should finished between 9-11 and 6-14 for you according to me.

But then, what are your numbers?

We are not all that pessimist in LHDD I don't have the same number as bet lol

betiko wrote:in other words, we are getting ass raped so far!

That's the best kind.

Huge difference between 14-10 and 16-9...huge.

rockfist wrote:Huge difference between 14-10 and 16-9...huge.

pretty much. Still haven't heard about your forecasts ice.

betiko wrote:

rockfist wrote:Huge difference between 14-10 and 16-9...huge.

pretty much. Still haven't heard about your forecasts ice.

You guys answered while I slept & now I'm at work, don't have my info in front of me. I think I had 16-11 if I included slight leanings, but 13-8 ish realistically. But again, that's from memory I might be off. I can post later w my actual #'s from yesterday

rockfist wrote:Huge difference between 14-10 and 16-9...huge.

We have two members making pronostic in LHDD, on is more optimistic than the other

Donelladan wrote:

rockfist wrote:Huge difference between 14-10 and 16-9...huge.

We have two members making pronostic in LHDD, on is more optimistic than the other

Is one of them Momo by any chance?

iAmCaffeine wrote:

Donelladan wrote:

rockfist wrote:Huge difference between 14-10 and 16-9...huge.

We have two members making pronostic in LHDD, on is more optimistic than the other

Is one of the Momo by any chance?

yup... my forecasts vs momo's forecasts lol. We're never on the same page!
and ice, those include the games leaning one way or the other.

betiko wrote:

iAmCaffeine wrote:

Donelladan wrote:

rockfist wrote:Huge difference between 14-10 and 16-9...huge.

We have two members making pronostic in LHDD, on is more optimistic than the other

Is one of the Momo by any chance?

yup... my forecasts vs momo's forecasts lol. We're never on the same page!

Well, we all know Momo is ever the optimist, and I have you pegged as a slight pessimist, so therefore we should probably go for a 15-9.5 I reckon.

betiko wrote:

loutil wrote:To be clear...70 vs 9,3,3,9,3,70 is NOT less than 1%. It is actually just above 8% meaning it will succeed 1 in 12 attempts. Certainly lucky but not a 1% or 1 in 100. They would have needed to kill an additional stack of 15 to get it below 1%.

yeah I don't have the odds calculator since the site decided to screw all add ons and the firefox version. I just feel screwed when these bellow 10% stuff happen...
rockfist I rarely calculate them anymore, it's more about gut feeling of what the % is more or less.

All I did was reinstall an older version of Firefox and kept all my tools .

loutil wrote:

betiko wrote:

loutil wrote:To be clear...70 vs 9,3,3,9,3,70 is NOT less than 1%. It is actually just above 8% meaning it will succeed 1 in 12 attempts. Certainly lucky but not a 1% or 1 in 100. They would have needed to kill an additional stack of 15 to get it below 1%.

yeah I don't have the odds calculator since the site decided to screw all add ons and the firefox version. I just feel screwed when these bellow 10% stuff happen...
rockfist I rarely calculate them anymore, it's more about gut feeling of what the % is more or less.

All I did was reinstall an older version of Firefox and kept all my tools .

Good ol' reliable Firefox 30.0!

I know this is off topic (but if everyone can hijack our war thread for a discussion of clan merges, why not start a conversation about site add-ons here? ), but I have the latest version of Firefox. Bob doesn't work right, but the panel interface works fine, and I have clickies, chat glove, and assault odds working flawlessly (most of the time!). It's actually pretty nice having the assault odds in one of the panels so I can position it where it's most convenient while looking at the map.

iAmCaffeine wrote:

betiko wrote:

iAmCaffeine wrote:

Donelladan wrote:

rockfist wrote:Huge difference between 14-10 and 16-9...huge.

We have two members making pronostic in LHDD, on is more optimistic than the other

Is one of the Momo by any chance?

yup... my forecasts vs momo's forecasts lol. We're never on the same page!

Well, we all know Momo is ever the optimist, and I have you pegged as a slight pessimist, so therefore we should probably go for a 15-9.5 I reckon.

Sorry guys, but right now I have 14-12 in favor of FALL and not 14-10

So for me this war is still very close, I really don't see FALL getting away from us right now. And I am pretty confident with a lot of games still tied up. This could really go to the 61st game!

I have it at:
FALL 15
LHDD 10

As of right now. Out of those, I have 12-7 "locked" (meaning very low chance of moving sides)

Spanish Armada has FALLEN! 7-5

ww2 poland trips to put it back in 1 game! 6-7

score updated

in decided games I have this at 12-10 fallen right now

nice come back!

austrum in the bag! that's 7-7... first tie since the war started.

but more decided wins coming your way....