Cat. Mafia Pain Killer & Kwanton WIN

by **Aimless** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:56 pm

I don't know where you people keep getting this "three night kills" number from. Based on the claimed roles, the lack of people claiming to be vigs, and the number of kills the previous night, I strongly suspect that the greatest number of night kills we will see is two.

However, it suspect that there's a good chance that we will see two night kills. Which means lynching one more person becomes extremely dangerous.

If we lynch one more, then I intend on ending this game today. If we let the game go to night, we should let it go to night now, before we risk losing while we sleep.

Frankly, this is obvious. And I grow strongly suspicious of anyone who fails to see this plan. As of now, I'm just about perfectly convinced that kwanton is scum; furthermore, despite my investigation of him last night, I've become about half convinced that mandy is scum as well (although, the other half of me is just willing to chalk this up to his traditional insanity as a townie).

As of right now, the only people I'm convinced are town are Koesen (based on the improbability of roles that would be required for him to come out scum) and myself.

by **mandalorian2298** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:19 pm

Aimless wrote:I don't know where you people keep getting this "three night kills" number from. Based on the claimed roles, the lack of people claiming to be vigs, and the number of kills the previous night, I strongly suspect that the greatest number of night kills we will see is two.

However, it suspect that there's a good chance that we will see two night kills. Which means lynching one more person becomes extremely dangerous.

If we lynch one more, then I intend on ending this game today. If we let the game go to night, we should let it go to night now, before we risk losing while we sleep.

Frankly, this is obvious. And I grow strongly suspicious of anyone who fails to see this plan. As of now, I'm just about perfectly convinced that kwanton is scum; furthermore, despite my investigation of him last night, I've become about half convinced that mandy is scum as well (although, the other half of me is just willing to chalk this up to his traditional insanity as a townie).

As of right now, the only people I'm convinced are town are Koesen (based on the improbability of roles that would be required for him to come out scum) and myself.

Correct me if I am wrong, but:

a) There will be 2 Night Kills only if Vig uses his Vig-power. Thus, if we have been completly incompetant today, he will just have to stave his vengefull wrath tonight.
b) You say that you are prepared to lynch Kalish tommorow. If we do it your way, we will get no info from his lynch. If we do it my way, we will find out his role AND Vig will know if he should take a shot or not.
c) Your insisting on the worst case scenario worries me a bit. Did we lynch 3 people today that you KNOW aren't mafia?

d) Feel free to grow even strongly suspicius.

by **Incandenza** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:42 pm

At this point, Aimless had answered enough questions correctly that I'm reasonably confident that he's town. Besides, coming out and running the game like this if he's scum would be a breathtakingly bold (and not terribly bright) move.

I agree that two NKs would seem to be the max.

I'm not wild about mandy's roleclaim. It does seem rather convenient that he claimed a role that can kill lyncher(s), so we'd be increasingly less likely to lynch him. And he's been acting veeeerrrry different in this game than he has in others where he's town.

But there's still a bit less than 4 hours to the deadline, so I won't yet drop the hammer on no lynch. If anyone has anything else to say, now's the time.

by **Aimless** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:43 pm

mandalorian2298 wrote:Correct me if I am wrong, but:

a) There will be 2 Night Kills only if Vig uses his Vig-power. Thus, if we have been completly incompetant today, he will just have to stave his vengefull wrath tonight.
b) You say that you are prepared to lynch Kalish tommorow. If we do it your way, we will get no info from his lynch. If we do it my way, we will find out his role AND Vig will know if he should take a shot or not.
c) Your insisting on the worst case scenario worries me a bit. Did we lynch 3 people today that you KNOW aren't mafia?
d) Feel free to grow even strongly suspicius.

Worst case scenario : there are two scum groups, and they each have a kill.

Second worst case scenario : there is one scum group that has two kills. This seems a little unlikely, but this is catastrophe.

I want[i] to believe that we have sufficiently thinned the ranks of the scum such that there will only be one kill tonight. However, [i]wishing it so doesn't make it true.

Regarding kalish - the fact that we won't get information from his lynch tomorrow is immaterial. If we lynch him and lose the game tonight, what information we will have gotten will have gone to waste.

Frankly, I have no idea how many scum are left. There is (probably) at least one, or LSU would have called the game by now. I suspect there are still two alive, because otherwise this harping by kwanton that we should lynch another doesn't make sense - if he didn't have a scum buddy, there would be no point to making another lynch (at least, no point to doing so from a scum perspective).

People have already said that the do not want to try to end this game today. I have, reluctantly, agreed. Therefore, we must let this game go to night. Now is the last safe time in which we can do so; carrying on with the day any further and we risk losing by letting the game go to night.

by **mandalorian2298** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:45 pm

Incandenza wrote:At this point, Aimless had answered enough questions correctly that I'm reasonably confident that he's town. Besides, coming out and running the game like this if he's scum would be a breathtakingly bold (and not terribly bright) move.

I agree that two NKs would seem to be the max.

I'm not wild about mandy's roleclaim. It does seem rather convenient that he claimed a role that can kill lyncher(s), so we'd be increasingly less likely to lynch him. And he's been acting veeeerrrry different in this game than he has in others where he's town.

But there's still a bit less than 4 hours to the deadline, so I won't yet drop the hammer on no lynch. If anyone has anything else to say, now's the time.

Not terrebly bright move? It is a sure win for him (if he is indeed scum) since Lion wanished without a trace, Tonka is in a Summer Camp and nobody else on the site can get him lynched. :lol:

As for my role, if Kalish is scum, tommorow I will drop the hammer on myself. I can only die once, after all.

by **Koesen** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:07 pm

I expect two kills at the most tonight. We already killed one scum, and odds are we got at least one more today. Assuming there were four to begin with, which seems a reasonable number for this game, there are no more than two left. Killing the SK right off the bat made our nights a whole lot better. Why not use that advantage to assess what we have done today?

I am not completely sure about anything, but in the above discussion, Aimless sounds more convincing than Mandy.

by **Koesen** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:08 pm

Vote no lynch

by **mandalorian2298** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:10 pm

Koesen wrote:I expect two kills at the most tonight. We already killed one scum, and odds are we got at least one more today. Assuming there were four to begin with, which seems a reasonable number for this game, there are no more than two left. Killing the SK right off the bat made our nights a whole lot better. Why not use that advantage to assess what we have done today?

I am not completely sure about anything, but in the above discussion, Aimless sounds more convincing than Mandy.

That would mean that you found a flaw in my argument. Which is it?

by **Koesen** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:29 pm

mandalorian2298 wrote:Correct me if I am wrong, but:

a) There will be 2 Night Kills only if Vig uses his Vig-power. Thus, if we have been completly incompetant today, he will just have to stave his vengefull wrath tonight.
b) You say that you are prepared to lynch Kalish tommorow. If we do it your way, we will get no info from his lynch. If we do it my way, we will find out his role AND Vig will know if he should take a shot or not.
c) Your insisting on the worst case scenario worries me a bit. Did we lynch 3 people today that you KNOW aren't mafia?
d) Feel free to grow even strongly suspicius.

Calling it a flaw is a bit too much. You might be right and I might be wrong, but having read everything, I lean more towards Aimless' picture of our current reality.

However,

2a: in a normal game, yes. But who says mafia doesn't get two kills here? It wouldn't seem unreasonable to me, though I confess I never played catastrophe before.

2c: considering worst case scenarios seems like a good strategy to me.

And about those vigs you mention, aren't they all dead? Fircoal, Exile, Red Bull 2.0... Are there any others? If I have been a complete retard and there is another pro town vig, I request he stays at home tonight and watches tv.

by **LSU Tiger Josh** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 8:36 pm

New deadline is Wed. at 830pm CST
Koeson is dead b/c in Unriggable's game of catastrophe mafia he did the bomb at the end of a day so I followed that lead. In regards to the question on day 1 concerning "random" vigilante it basically meant that there was a coinflip on whether that kill went through or not for the night.

Day 2 Lynched:

7 ga7 Pro Town Roleblocker(Mandy, Incan, Koeson, Kalish, Pain Killer, Kwanton, Aimless)
6 Pain Killer Scum Bomb(Pancake, Mandy, Exile, Fircoal, Kwanton, Koeson)
Koeson Night Cop (Hammered the bomb)
6 PancakeMix Daytime Forensics Investigator(Kwanton, Aimless, Fircoal, Kalish, Pancake, Koeson)
5 Fircoal True Vigilante (Mandy, Aimless, Kwanton, Koeson, Kalish)
5 The1Exile Serial Killer (Koeson, Aimless, Kalish, Incan, Skoffin)

by **Koesen** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:02 pm

Hmmm... not entirely happy with that!

Good luck town!

Sorry Fircoal, PCM and ga7. Good thing we got Exile, though

by **pancakemix** on Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:15 pm

Man, that sucks.

by **ga7** on Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:00 am

Told ya.

by **LSU Tiger Josh** on Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:46 am

I accidently had Pain Killer's role in the wrong color. He should've been in purple. I just want to let everyone know that I have changed it since it was on the previous page. Still waiting on night actions.

by **LSU Tiger Josh** on Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:29 pm

Night actually ends on Wed. at 830. Whoever hasn't sent in their night actions yet please send it in and I will start day 3 today upon receiving it.

by **kalishnikov** on Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:15 pm

Wow, interesting end of Day 1...

(Night bump)

by **LSU Tiger Josh** on Wed Aug 01, 2007 6:05 am

I've arranged for a sub mod to count votes once everything has been sent in. The ones that haven't sent in their night actions please send it to Fircoal and (hopefully) he'll submit it to the proper authorities. I'll hopefully be able to check in before Friday night. At the same time, I apologize for having to leave for 3 days for work and moving into a new apartment and maybe not having internet access during that time.

Josh

by **Aimless** on Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:29 pm

Announcement

I will be taking over as mod for the time that LSU is away. Yes, that means what you think it means - I'm dead.

At any rate, since I have both this and Inquisition to keep track of I don't know how prompt I'll be able to be with vote counts, but I'll try to update things at least once per day.

So, without further ado, you all wake up, and find that Aimless and Incandenza have been killed during the night!

Aimless, Pro-Town Tracker, has been killed!
Incandenza, Pro-Town Doctor, has been killed!

It is now Day 3. Deadline is 72 hours from this post.

Since I can't update the first page, I'll list players remaining here :

Living
8. mandalorian2298
10. kwanton
11. Kalishnikov replaces spinwizard
14. Skoffin

DEAD ZONE

1 ga7 Pro Town Roleblocker Day 2 Lynch
2. Incandenza replaces firth4eva Pro Town Doctor killed Night 2
3. Balsiefen Protown Doctor Night 1 kill
4. Red Bull 2.0 replaces cmckinney Protown Random Vigilante Night 1 kill
5. Chad22342 MAFIA DOCTOR Day 1 lynched
6 The1Exile Serial Killer Day 2 Lynch
7 PancakeMix Daytime Forensics Investigator Day 2 Lynch
9 Fircoal True Vigilante Day 2 Lynch
12 Koeson Night Cop (Hammered the bomb) Day 2 Died
13. red bull SERIAL KILLER Day 1 lynched
15. 0ojakeo0 Unknown MODKILLED AND PLACED ON BLACKLIST
16 Pain Killer Scum Bomb Day 2 Lynch
17. Aimless Pro-Town Tracker killed Night 2

by **Incandenza** on Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:38 pm

Bah!

(at least aim turned up town... I can sleep a bit better at night)

by **Koesen** on Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:39 pm

Well, at least I was right about you. Phew...

by **kalishnikov** on Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:27 pm

FOS: madalorian Its seems unlikely that your also a bomb, even a pro-town one. However, since Aimless turned out to be clean and a tracker, his claim of you being town can't be overlooked (even if it may be wrong. The person's house he tracked you to was protected that night, so he assumed you were protown since the person didn't die). But those are all maybes, based on what might be.

Heres what I know for sure, based on what happened. Vote: kwanton He's played it so cool, but after re-reading a few posts before night, he's hiding something and he's trying to force a quick end to this under unsure circumstances. The quicker it ends right now, the better for him (with mandalorian [perhaps his scum pal] leading a crusade against me they've got this game in the bag). Re-read the last 2 pages and see for yourself. I tried to bus-drive he and Aimless last night (assuming kwanton's pal wouldn't off him in the night), and it failed. So he was out doing something and he's certainly not a cop, doc or vig...

Mandalorian, you've got one option right now to affirm your claim of town.

Skoffin, did you investigate last night? This will be game ending news if the person you investigated still lives.

by **Skoffin** on Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:41 pm

Oh it's great I survived, I've been busting with this for a while now.

No two guesses for who I investigated, MANDY is scum!!

vote mandy

by **kwanton** on Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:47 pm

Kalish I have a deal for you.

You are convinced I am scum. Skoffin investigated mandy and got scum. I will make the lynching vote on mandy. If he is telling the truth, then I will be dead. If he is lying and skoff's investigation is correct then the mandy-scum will be dead.

Either way you're getting rid of at least one of the scum characters in the game. (Of course I'm explaining through your point of view. I know I'm town.)

So yes or no?

by **mandalorian2298** on Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:45 am

Congrats Skoffin, you are the Paranoid Cop. :roll:

Didn't Aimless, who was the Tracker and as such immune to insanity, made it clear that I am Town. Of course, had you lot lynched Kalish yesterday, this would not only be clear, but also irefutable, since the game would end and Town would win!

vote Kalish for the "Investigate me tonight" comment. Unless Skoffin missed it, there is a certain shortage of Godfathers on the List of the Dead *cue the spoooooky music*

by **mandalorian2298** on Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:49 am

kwanton wrote:Kalish I have a deal for you.

You are convinced I am scum. Skoffin investigated mandy and got scum. I will make the lynching vote on mandy. If he is telling the truth, then I will be dead. If he is lying and skoff's investigation is correct then the mandy-scum will be dead.

Either way you're getting rid of at least one of the scum characters in the game. (Of course I'm explaining through your point of view. I know I'm town.)

So yes or no?

So you will prove that you are Townie to the Scum by lynching a Townie and dieing? ](*,)

*Sigh* "And on the day when the phrase "dumbest move ever" was redifined we stood in awe and watched." :shock:

Cat. Mafia Pain Killer & Kwanton WIN

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