Cat. Mafia Pain Killer & Kwanton WIN

[kwanton]

Yeah skoff. I agree. Not to metagame but in the last one we only lynched one on first day. And he made a terrible, terrible mistake. Like I said, unless we have conclusive evidence 3 would be more than enough.

[Aimless]

Yeah, I'm not sure the multiple lynches day one would be too good of a idea. No leads, more likely to get town. And wouldn't we have docs and cops too? Not only would we increase the chances of getting them we'd reduce the opportunity of them using their powers or somesuch (I've never played this type of mafia before so excuse me if I have this wrong) so for day one I think we should stick to one or two lynchings(unless something comes up) and get to the multiple lynchings day two when we have more to go on. Or something.

If we come close to getting the cop or the doc, they should claim. Yes, this is a risk (especially the doc, because he's guaranteed to get night killed), but the more people we lynch, the better the odds are of finding scum. Frankly, we should do anything and everything we can to maximize the odds of getting a scum on day one - the benefits to the town of doing so far outweigh the negatives of potentially killing a power role.

As for not having any leads, the point of multiple lynchings day one is to generate more leads for day two. So, we have a choice - lynch with no leads day one and hopefully have a good idea of the scum on day two, or leave ourselves as much in the dark on day two as we are now, and wind up in this same situation again.

Consider it this way : a day one lynch is always good for the town. So we lynch. It's still day one, we still don't have any information yet - another day one lynch is still good for the town, by the same rationale that the first one was.

And now, for the numbers. With jake dead, there are 16 players remaining. Assume 4 scum, one SK. This means that on any given lynch (at random), there is a 5/16 chance of getting scum. Two day one lynches gives us a 1 - (7/16)^2 = 80.8% chance of hitting scum. Three day one lynches gives us a 1 - (7/16)^3 = 91.6% chance of hitting scum. That's if we lynch at random.

Thus, lynching three virtually assures us of hitting scum. Epecially if we hit the three at random.

[kwanton]

Bah. Numbers. Well I see your point aimless. If there is only 1 of each pro-town power role the chances of gettin one of them would be less than the chances of getting scum. But then again the chances of getting scum are much lower than the chances of getting a townie in general. I just don't want to lynch much d1 because we do not know the strength of the scum. 1 or 2 mafia kills an SK and who knows what else. Also if our vig is stupid enough to kill night 1 without any lead (don't bring up my first game lol) we could easily lose another town. The thing that stood out in what you said aimless was "especially if we hit three at random" I really think it would be much better to vote based on leads instead of multiple random lynches don't you?

[ga7]

Hmm the 3 lynches argument is good statistically speaking, but still seems a lot to me Well, I agree it would provide a lot of input for day 2 and that's good, but there's something that doesn't seem to fit with that: everyone mentioned there would probably be a lot of NKs, so at least 3 I suppose; if we lynch 3 and don't come up with scum, lose another 3 townies in the night, wouldn't that put us in a difficult position in day 2? Especially if it's only one mafia

[Aimless]

And now, for the numbers. With jake dead, there are 16 players remaining. Assume 4 scum, one SK. This means that on any given lynch (at random), there is a 5/16 chance of getting scum. Two day one lynches gives us a 1 - (7/16)^2 = 80.8% chance of hitting scum. Three day one lynches gives us a 1 - (7/16)^3 = 91.6% chance of hitting scum. That's if we lynch at random.

Bah. Actually... these number are completely and utterly bogus. Stupid mistake on my part; not only is my methodology wrong, my arithmetic is wrong too. Sigh. And this time, I can even blame it on lack of sleep.

Here are the real numbers, again assuming 4 mafia, 1 SK, 11 townies.

Chance of lynching scum with one lynch : 5/16 = 31.25%
Chance of lynching scum with two lynches : 1 - (11/16*10/15) = 54.16%
Chance of lynching scum with three lynches : 1 - (11/16*10/15*9/14) = 70.5%

Alright... that looks much more reasonable too my eye. And it presses home the necessity of making that third lynch (I knew there was a reason I picked the number three initially).

[ga7]

I like less those numbers, can we have the previous ones back?

Btw Fircoal, you said spam wasn't bad when nothing happens, well I think the spam made everyone flee for a good while so...

[Aimless]

The thing that stood out in what you said aimless was "especially if we hit three at random" I really think it would be much better to vote based on leads instead of multiple random lynches don't you?

Day one lynches are essentially random lynches anyways. We can't lynch based on leads until we know information regarding roles. However, the best leads are always generated by lynching scum, which is why I'm adamant about forcing enough lynches to get one on day one.

But, the things about hitting three people at random is that otherwise, we will probably wind up hitting three players that stand out too much, like (at the moment) Chad, Fircoal, or myself - this is probably less likely to net us scum than just lynching at random.

[LSU Tiger Josh]

I went ahead and killed off Jake's character and won't get a replacement. Originally was goign to play with 16 anyway

[kwanton]

Meh. Well with a dynamic deadline and multiple lynches like we have day one doesn't always mean random. We have more than enough time to talk things through. Aimless you do seem to stand out a lot. Normally I'd accuse you of pushing too strongly for a lynch, but this is a catastrophe mafia and for what it's worth I think your innocent, just a tad adamant about your arguments.

Well for now I've diverted my attention away from the spammers and onto the bandwagoners. I'm watching you. You know who you are .

[LSU Tiger Josh]

Vote Count 9 needed for lynch


4 Chad22342 (Pancake, red bull, Aimless, Balsiefen )
2 ga7 ( Spin, Mandy)
1 mandalorian2298 (Spin)
1 kwanton (Firth)
1 Balsiefen (Koesen)
1 Fircoal (Exile)
1 Skoffin (Fircoal)

red bull
Aimless
firth4eva
cmckinney
The1Exile
PancakeMix
Koesen
Pain Killer
spinwizard

[Skoffin]

Umm I'd just like to unvote myself for now.

[kwanton]

On closer inspection, PCM voted for chad on random reasons, spammed til about page 3, and was never seen again. Also, red bull's only post was a serious vote on chad. These two have set off my scum-dar.

Vote red bull

[Aimless]

Meh. Well with a dynamic deadline and multiple lynches like we have day one doesn't always mean random. We have more than enough time to talk things through. Aimless you do seem to stand out a lot. Normally I'd accuse you of pushing too strongly for a lynch, but this is a catastrophe mafia and for what it's worth I think your innocent, just a tad adamant about your arguments.

Well for now I've diverted my attention away from the spammers and onto the bandwagoners. I'm watching you. You know who you are .

I agree about the dynamic deadline thing. I'm never in favor of not talking; frankly, I hate deadlines on principle, and with the exception of Inquisition (which requires on to function) never include a deadline in my games (except as a prod to move things along when posting starts trailing off - but that's an "after the fact" thing, not a deadline in the game itself).

As for the "normally I'd accuse you of pushing" - I always push. If anything, pushing is more of a town tell for me than a scum tell (I often push as scum, too, but barring a couple of games where I was simply too busy to play much, the only times I have ever sat back and watched have been when I was scum).

[pancakemix]

I haven't been posting much in mafia games lately. It seems to have lost something somewhere along the line and it isn't quite the same as it used to be.

Anyway...

Regarding the vote on chad, It was random at first, but I held it because of his vote hopping. That kind of scummy behavior under any circumstances is not to be tolerated.

[ga7]

vote chad i noticed taht he only put on the second or third vote but when ever it got around to fircoal he would say to hold up uless i missed a post so with that said fos fircoal another thing with this it would get rid of two spamers

Yeah, redbull's post caught my attention when I was browsing back too but mostly because I couldn't figure out what was his reason
Let's see if he pops up again...

[kwanton]

PCM: Not posting for several pages then coming up for air 4 minutes after your name is mentioned? Aimless's words:"the only times I have ever sat back and watched have been when I was scum"

Aimless: Meh. I think pushing especially hard is usually a scum tell. You can post a lot and fish for leads without pushing for lynches. Well on another note it is kinda sad to have 2 people be the life of the party in a 16 player game. I'm off soon. Good luck keeping up the conversation.

[Fircoal]

I like less those numbers, can we have the previous ones back?

Btw Fircoal, you said spam wasn't bad when nothing happens, well I think the spam made everyone flee for a good while so...

no it was the fact there was nothing to talk about.

[ga7]

Bah. I'll stop there before running in circles

Regarding PCM, I've seen him doing that in all games lately; so to me it doesn't appear so scummy anymore. It doesn't help for sure though.

[kwanton]

Going away I will soon be.
So little of me you will see.
But I'll be gone for just one day.
Man that fircoal is really gay
This is just a minor decree.

No problem far as I can see
So while I'm gone be kind to me.
L-O-L I called fircoal gay!
Going away......

I'm thirsty. I'll get some HI-c!
Mmmmmm. Delicious Hi-c for me!
When I get back please tell me "Hey-
We lynched several scum today"
Be right back. Now I have to pee.


Bah! The poetry is getting everywhere! See what you've done to me?! Yeah anyway I'll be gone on the 12th and coming back on the 13th. No internet connection for one day. Possibly 2 at most. Since this is catastrophe this might even finish before then but I doubt it. O well.

[Fircoal]

Meh. Well with a dynamic deadline and multiple lynches like we have day one doesn't always mean random. We have more than enough time to talk things through. Aimless you do seem to stand out a lot. Normally I'd accuse you of pushing too strongly for a lynch, but this is a catastrophe mafia and for what it's worth I think your innocent, just a tad adamant about your arguments.

Well for now I've diverted my attention away from the spammers and onto the bandwagoners. I'm watching you. You know who you are .

I agree about the dynamic deadline thing. I'm never in favor of not talking; frankly, I hate deadlines on principle, and with the exception of Inquisition (which requires on to function) never include a deadline in my games (except as a prod to move things along when posting starts trailing off - but that's an "after the fact" thing, not a deadline in the game itself).

I argee with Aimless, I don't like deadlines. I feel that the town should get all the time they need, and it's just a way to help the scum.

[Fircoal]

I haven't been posting much in mafia games lately. It seems to have lost something somewhere along the line and it isn't quite the same as it used to be.

Anyway...

Regarding the vote on chad, It was random at first, but I held it because of his vote hopping. That kind of scummy behavior under any circumstances is not to be tolerated.

Unvote
Vote: Pancake

Sure it was random, but you decided to keep it after everyone but those scummy people said it was dumb and a bangwagon.

[Fircoal]

PCM: Not posting for several pages then coming up for air 4 minutes after your name is mentioned? Aimless's words:"the only times I have ever sat back and watched have been when I was scum"

And it came up before, I think he finally realized that he wasn't going to be able to not explain or post.

[Fircoal]

Going away I will soon be.
So little of me you will see.
But I'll be gone for just one day.
Man that fircoal is really gay
This is just a minor decree.

No problem far as I can see
So while I'm gone be kind to me.
L-O-L I called fircoal gay!
Going away......

I'm thirsty. I'll get some HI-c!
Mmmmmm. Delicious Hi-c for me!
When I get back please tell me "Hey-
We lynched several scum today"
Be right back. Now I have to pee.


Bah! The poetry is getting everywhere! See what you've done to me?! Yeah anyway I'll be gone on the 12th and coming back on the 13th. No internet connection for one day. Possibly 2 at most. Since this is catastrophe this might even finish before then but I doubt it. O well.

NO CALLING ME GAY!

[LSU Tiger Josh]

Vote Count 9 needed for lynch


4 Chad22342 (Pancake, red bull, Aimless, Balsiefen )
2 ga7 ( Spin, Mandy)
1 mandalorian2298 (Spin)
1 kwanton (Firth)
1 Balsiefen (Koesen)
1 Fircoal (Exile)
1 PancakeMix (Fircoal)
1 red bull (Kwanton)

skoffin
Aimless
firth4eva
cmckinney
The1Exile
Koesen
Pain Killer
spinwizard

Dead
0oJakeo0 Votes 9 (LSUTigerJosh aka MODKILL)

[Balsiefen]

Finally, this is what i was hopig for.
I'm not sure I entirely agree with aimless' lynching 3 people brigade (however, i've never played a cat. mafia before so this might be a mistake) the odds look good to start but thats the chance of hitting one mafia and killing two townies, very possibly power roles. If they roleclaim their dead that night anyway. I'm still sitting on the fence on this one, it would help if i knew how many townies are going to die in the night.

oh yea..

Unvote