If the dice are so random?

[mathgeni]

once again- the only true reason to worry about the die is if you have a poor strategy

those who have good strategies know not to spread terribly thin and to keep some numbers in their favor

those with poor strategies lose games and points and then complain about the die

learn what game settings suit your strategy and play them

and stop complaining

[mathgeni]

Statistics of Dice Throw

Found this which states that the more dice you have the probability of getting higher numbers increases due to to the combinations available so how do cc stats level out on all dice????

this talks about the total of the die... in CC it is not the total number on the die, what matters is the highest number rolled and in the case of 2 die also the second highest number rolled by each the attacker and defender

[Neutrino]

Could it just be using a computer program which is not random at all and only spits out numbers so they'll fit the expected stats?

Yes.

Well if the expected stats are random numbers and the computer is fufilling those expectations, then the numbers that is is generating are, in fact, random.

Your definition of random seems to be something where the attacker and defender score the same thing every time. Aside from the fact that this would lead to constant defender wins (defenders win ties, remember. This is probably the cause of your complaints, since the attackers have to roll at least 1 higher than the best defender dice.) this is not random.

The dice do not care that they just rolled 4 1's. Just because they rolled 4 of them dosen't mean they are going to roll 4 6's to make up for this.

Think up better strategies, make sure you have factored causalties into your invasion plans (1-1 is the absolute minimum that I will invade with; never attack when you are outnumbered) and most importantly, STOP COMPLAINING.

[worst2first]

I am new here but I thought in the original game you rolled one die per army in the attack. I have a really hard time believing this system follows the same formula. If it follows that rule, I routinely roll 20 or 30 dice with nothing higher than a 2. That is statistically improbable at best.

[mathgeni]

the dice rules here are the same as the original game

and neutrino:- i noticed your location under your avatar... what threat does water pose?

[tryagain]

With absolutely no evidence, I am beginning to get suspicious about the dice.

Here is a paranoid theory. Some kind of clustering has been programmed in. In this theory, the dice tend to cluster in groups of 'good dice streaks' and 'bad dice streaks'. This would avoid detection by the dice analyzer because overall the percentage of each number would be right.

The reason I say this is the difference between CC and other Risk sites. It seems at CC, I come across 1 army standing firm against 5,6,7 etc more often than probability would expect.

Second paranoid theory. I haven't bought a premium membership. This has a negative effect on my dice rolls.

[Stopper]

The reason I say this is the difference between CC and other Risk sites. It seems at CC, I come across 1 army standing firm against 5,6,7 etc more often than probability would expect.

It appears to happen more in CC than in other Risk sites, because other Risk sites are rubbish, and therefore no-one sticks around long enough to see the more improbable rolls.

[Rocketry]

having read ONLY the title to this thread in gonna tell you to shut up and stop complaing. the dice are fair. you will get bad luck, you may get it all the time. from a population of 100 people you would EXPECT 5 of them to get bad dice ALL of the time. (and 5 to get good ALL of the time etc...)

hope this is related to the thread and answers the question.

[nikola_milicki]

These dice we have here have no touch with reality at all and thats a fact!!!
What say you we start a thread where players can wright down all of their dice-screw ups, then we could use that for starting a petition in purpose of changing/repairing dice program

[Neutrino]

and neutrino:- i noticed your location under your avatar... what threat does water pose?

It is not water, it is dihydrogen monoxide; one of the deadliest substances known to man.

Death due to accidental inhalation of DHMO, even in small quantities.
Prolonged exposure to solid DHMO causes severe tissue damage.
Excessive ingestion produces a number of unpleasant though not typically life-threatening side-effects.
DHMO is a major component of acid rain.
Gaseous DHMO can cause severe burns.
Contributes to soil erosion.
Leads to corrosion and oxidation of many metals.
Contamination of electrical systems often causes short-circuits.
Exposure decreases effectiveness of automobile brakes.
Found in biopsies of pre-cancerous tumors and lesions.
Given to vicious dogs involved in recent deadly attacks.
Often associated with killer cyclones in the U.S. Midwest and elsewhere, and in hurricanes including deadly storms in Florida, New Orleans and other areas of the southeastern U.S.
Thermal variations in DHMO are a suspected contributor to the El Nino weather effect.

And many more

Stop DMHO now!


P.S. Congratulations on being part of the 1/10000 of the population that can actually work out that H2O = dihydrogen monoxide.

[Rocketry]

:shock:
These dice we have here have no touch with reality at all and thats a fact!!!
What say you we start a thread where players can wright down all of their dice-screw ups, then we could use that for starting a petition in purpose of changing/repairing dice program

only if we ALSO start a thread about when people have had fantastic dice. if you LOOK fir bad dice you will find them.

[nikola_milicki]

:shock:
These dice we have here have no touch with reality at all and thats a fact!!!
What say you we start a thread where players can wright down all of their dice-screw ups, then we could use that for starting a petition in purpose of changing/repairing dice program

only if we ALSO start a thread about when people have had fantastic dice. if you LOOK fir bad dice you will find them.

Fine by me

[AAFitz]

:shock:
These dice we have here have no touch with reality at all and thats a fact!!!
What say you we start a thread where players can wright down all of their dice-screw ups, then we could use that for starting a petition in purpose of changing/repairing dice program

thats a great idea..currently the dice are supplied by random.org.

what is the site that supplies the truly random dice?

[Robinette]

and neutrino:- i noticed your location under your avatar... what threat does water pose?

It is not water, it is dihydrogen monoxide; one of the deadliest substances known to man.

Death due to accidental inhalation of DHMO, even in small quantities.
Prolonged exposure to solid DHMO causes severe tissue damage.
Excessive ingestion produces a number of unpleasant though not typically life-threatening side-effects.
DHMO is a major component of acid rain.
Gaseous DHMO can cause severe burns.
Contributes to soil erosion.
Leads to corrosion and oxidation of many metals.
Contamination of electrical systems often causes short-circuits.
Exposure decreases effectiveness of automobile brakes.
Found in biopsies of pre-cancerous tumors and lesions.
Given to vicious dogs involved in recent deadly attacks.
Often associated with killer cyclones in the U.S. Midwest and elsewhere, and in hurricanes including deadly storms in Florida, New Orleans and other areas of the southeastern U.S.
Thermal variations in DHMO are a suspected contributor to the El Nino weather effect.

And many more

Stop DMHO now!

It will never happen... the 2 main reasons are that we are more addicted to this than to oil, and we really can't live without it...

And then there is the military applications, the US Navy has based it's entire strategic strike capability on the reliance of it... they need DHMO more than they need oil!

[AAFitz]

(DHMO is)Often associated with killer cyclones in the U.S. Midwest and elsewhere, and in hurricanes including deadly storms in Florida, New Orleans and other areas of the southeastern U.S.

Well im staying the hell away from deadly storms and hurricanes from now on, because I dont want to breath that in and have breathing problems

[Aradhus]

once again- the only true reason to worry about the die is if you have a poor strategy

those who have good strategies know not to spread terribly thin and to keep some numbers in their favor

those with poor strategies lose games and points and then complain about the die

This is complete bullshit. As have been several of your clueless posts in this topic.

Anybody that plays escalating games can attest to this. You wipe out one player, take their cards, cash in, and then carry on all over the board, until you've wiped everybody out. This is essentially how escalating games are won, the vast majority of the time. You get bad dice, and you lose the game because the next person can cash in and wipe out the board. It has nothing to do with inefficient or incompetent strategy. It is entirely down to the dice.

learn what game settings suit your strategy and play them

and stop complaining

You can get bad dice in any game no matter what game style best suits your strategy. I lose 14 armies attacking 1 in flat rate and it cost me the game. He took his turn cashed in a top set, attacked me, breaking two of my conts, and then player 3 cashed in a top set, with his bonuses(which I would have been able to break if I had the second players cards), wiped out player two, cashed in another set, and broke my last continent and did enough damage that I was unable to recover.

To suggest that the dice have no effect on the game just shows how clueless and naive you are.

Also, atmospheric noise? translated by a computer program he created, not truly random. Regardless of the randomness of the dice, that really isn't the problem. The problem is that it just isnt plausible that 40 armies could lose 20 armies while attacking 1. But it happens in CC. The problem isn't the randomness of the dice, it is the game mechanics. 14 armies should not lose to 1.

Edit: Oh, and I would just like to add that this bullshit about the dice "averaging" out over time has absolutely no fucking relevance. Of course, as random has no memory it is not actually intently averaging out, its just with more dice rolls the percentages become closer to each other. But as I said, that means absolutely nothing. It doesn't mean that the attacker wins an equal amount of battles. I could roll 300 sixes, and the defender rolls 100, and I havent won a single battle. but I've rolled 3 times as many sixes as the defender has.

[Turtle Power]

and neutrino:- i noticed your location under your avatar... what threat does water pose?

It is not water, it is dihydrogen monoxide; one of the deadliest substances known to man.

Death due to accidental inhalation of DHMO, even in small quantities.
Prolonged exposure to solid DHMO causes severe tissue damage.
Excessive ingestion produces a number of unpleasant though not typically life-threatening side-effects.
DHMO is a major component of acid rain.
Gaseous DHMO can cause severe burns.
Contributes to soil erosion.
Leads to corrosion and oxidation of many metals.
Contamination of electrical systems often causes short-circuits.
Exposure decreases effectiveness of automobile brakes.
Found in biopsies of pre-cancerous tumors and lesions.
Given to vicious dogs involved in recent deadly attacks.
Often associated with killer cyclones in the U.S. Midwest and elsewhere, and in hurricanes including deadly storms in Florida, New Orleans and other areas of the southeastern U.S.
Thermal variations in DHMO are a suspected contributor to the El Nino weather effect.

And many more

Stop DMHO now!

It will never happen... the 2 main reasons are that we are more addicted to this than to oil, and we really can't live without it...

And then there is the military applications, the US Navy has based it's entire strategic strike capability on the reliance of it... they need DHMO more than they need oil!

Thats just what they want you to believe. Their dirty secret? They actually use NaCLH2O. Commie bastards.

[Coleman]

It is just way to tempting to ruin the above joke. I hope you all realize this is a joke yes? Any chemistry folks out there?

[iteachjava]

Also, atmospheric noise? translated by a computer program he created, not truly random. Regardless of the randomness of the dice, that really isn't the problem. The problem is that it just isnt plausible that 40 armies could lose 20 armies while attacking 1. But it happens in CC. The problem isn't the randomness of the dice, it is the game mechanics. 14 armies should not lose to 1.

So what you're arguing for is that the game shouldn't use dice? It should be completely deterministic? If I have 14 armies, I should automatically win over 1? I doubt game mechanics are going to change so I'm not sure who you're really complaining to.

[Neutrino]

This is complete bullshit. As have been several of your clueless posts in this topic.

Anybody that plays escalating games can attest to this. You wipe out one player, take their cards, cash in, and then carry on all over the board, until you've wiped everybody out. This is essentially how escalating games are won, the vast majority of the time. You get bad dice, and you lose the game because the next person can cash in and wipe out the board. It has nothing to do with inefficient or incompetent strategy. It is entirely down to the dice.

Well then don't play escalating...

Escalating is designed to rely more on luck than on strategy. This is why it is so popular with the lower ranked players. You can have absolutly no skill whatsoever and still triumph over the best player in the game.

You can get bad dice in any game no matter what game style best suits your strategy. I lose 14 armies attacking 1 in flat rate and it cost me the game. He took his turn cashed in a top set, attacked me, breaking two of my conts, and then player 3 cashed in a top set, with his bonuses(which I would have been able to break if I had the second players cards), wiped out player two, cashed in another set, and broke my last continent and did enough damage that I was unable to recover.

To suggest that the dice have no effect on the game just shows how clueless and naive you are.

Of course the dice have an effect on the game. Where has anyone claimed otherwise? If they had no effect, what would be the point of having dice in the first place?
You simply got unlucky. I'm sure in another game you did roughly the same thing to another player.

Also, atmospheric noise? translated by a computer program he created, not truly random. Regardless of the randomness of the dice, that really isn't the problem. The problem is that it just isnt plausible that 40 armies could lose 20 armies while attacking 1. But it happens in CC. The problem isn't the randomness of the dice, it is the game mechanics. 14 armies should not lose to 1.

Of course 14 can loose to 1. There are innumerable real world tactical reasons why this could be. Even setting aside the possibility that the 1 army was composed of plain better troops, (300 style) the defenders could have been deeply entrenched, there could have been flash-flooding or even a plague.

I'm just saying that if an army can beat another army 14 times its size in real life, it can certainly do it in a game.

Edit: Oh, and I would just like to add that this bullshit about the dice "averaging" out over time has absolutely no fucking relevance. Of course, as random has no memory it is not actually intently averaging out, its just with more dice rolls the percentages become closer to each other. But as I said, that means absolutely nothing. It doesn't mean that the attacker wins an equal amount of battles. I could roll 300 sixes, and the defender rolls 100, and I havent won a single battle. but I've rolled 3 times as many sixes as the defender has.

This is the part that no-one gets; THE DEFENDER HAS AN ADVANTAGE.
The ability to win ties is a powerful ability and this is what probably causes 90% of dice complaints.

[TipTop]

Your 3 armies vs 1 army results are also tracked by the Dice Analyzer and they too will show that they even out over time.

For the record my 3v1 battle stats are 34118wins/1816losses that's 65.30%/34.70% expressed as a percentage. The actual odds of 3 dice beating 1 is 65.97%/34.03% pretty damn close!

Seriously just download the program and see for yourself.

You can blame the dice for short term bad luck as it is streaky. Stop worrying about short term results. Luck is too big a factor in the short run. It is your long term results which separate luck from skill. If your rank is poor after 100 games then it is not the dice.

[nikola_milicki]

This is complete bullshit. As have been several of your clueless posts in this topic.

Anybody that plays escalating games can attest to this. You wipe out one player, take their cards, cash in, and then carry on all over the board, until you've wiped everybody out. This is essentially how escalating games are won, the vast majority of the time. You get bad dice, and you lose the game because the next person can cash in and wipe out the board. It has nothing to do with inefficient or incompetent strategy. It is entirely down to the dice.

Well then don't play escalating...

Escalating is designed to rely more on luck than on strategy. This is why it is so popular with the lower ranked players. You can have absolutly no skill whatsoever and still triumph over the best player in the game.

You can get bad dice in any game no matter what game style best suits your strategy. I lose 14 armies attacking 1 in flat rate and it cost me the game. He took his turn cashed in a top set, attacked me, breaking two of my conts, and then player 3 cashed in a top set, with his bonuses(which I would have been able to break if I had the second players cards), wiped out player two, cashed in another set, and broke my last continent and did enough damage that I was unable to recover.

To suggest that the dice have no effect on the game just shows how clueless and naive you are.

Of course the dice have an effect on the game. Where has anyone claimed otherwise? If they had no effect, what would be the point of having dice in the first place?
You simply got unlucky. I'm sure in another game you did roughly the same thing to another player.

Also, atmospheric noise? translated by a computer program he created, not truly random. Regardless of the randomness of the dice, that really isn't the problem. The problem is that it just isnt plausible that 40 armies could lose 20 armies while attacking 1. But it happens in CC. The problem isn't the randomness of the dice, it is the game mechanics. 14 armies should not lose to 1.

Of course 14 can loose to 1. There are innumerable real world tactical reasons why this could be. Even setting aside the possibility that the 1 army was composed of plain better troops, (300 style) the defenders could have been deeply entrenched, there could have been flash-flooding or even a plague.

I'm just saying that if an army can beat another army 14 times its size in real life, it can certainly do it in a game.

Edit: Oh, and I would just like to add that this bullshit about the dice "averaging" out over time has absolutely no fucking relevance. Of course, as random has no memory it is not actually intently averaging out, its just with more dice rolls the percentages become closer to each other. But as I said, that means absolutely nothing. It doesn't mean that the attacker wins an equal amount of battles. I could roll 300 sixes, and the defender rolls 100, and I havent won a single battle. but I've rolled 3 times as many sixes as the defender has.

This is the part that no-one gets; THE DEFENDER HAS AN ADVANTAGE.
The ability to win ties is a powerful ability and this is what probably causes 90% of dice complaints.

I bet theres not a single soul here who lost 14v1 ever, or seen it happen, have you

[MR. Nate]

I beat a guy who had 24 when I had 14, and had 4 left. I lost 19 when I went 21 on 19, and he lost 2. I saw an opponent with 24 attack a teammate with 12, and my teammate ended up with 6, and the opponent had 3.

So - yeah, streaks happen. it's part of the game.

[mczet]

There are such things as unlucky people. I happen to be one and always have with regard to items of pure chance. My 3v1 win ration is 5% below standard with over 1000 rolls in the DB. My 3v2 1% below. Not surprising, the top two numbers rolled by the opponent are 5's and 6's. 18.67% each. Nearly 2% above the next number. And of course my most frequent rolls are 2 and 3. Five card sets? Thumbs up, thats me! Heck nobody will let me go to the casino with them. You heard of that movie The Cooler? Thats me. I get close to you in the casino and I just suck the luck right out of you. Probably would work in a doubles or triples game too. But, as nature usually does, the deck is balanced in a very strange way. Parking spots. Front row, right by the door parking spots. Lot full? Not for me. Someone will pull out just as I get there. Crowded city? Not a problem. Its very spooky, and of course useful.

[nikola_milicki]

Come one people!!!!! Give us your XXv1 dicerapes.
Maybe thats just one little bug in the program and could be easily fixed. We lose 5,6,7,8,...,14...units attacking just 1 every day and that will continue unless we react now