Black Metal Mafia - SCUM WINS

[Ragian]

Official vote count - Deadline: Feb 12, midnight GMT+1



Son!c (1) - Loose
Charle (1) - Max
Loose (2) - EW, Son!c
Max (3) - Charle, Traf, Dev

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

20 minutes

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[/quote]

[Extreme Ways]

vote max

[Ragian]

Official vote count - Deadline: Feb 12, midnight GMT+1



Son!c (1) - Loose
Charle (1) - Max
Loose (2) - EW, Son!c
Max (4) - Charle, Traf, Dev, EW

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

20 minutes

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[Ragian]

Official vote count - Deadline: Feb 12, midnight GMT+1



Son!c (1) - Loose
Charle (1) - Max
Loose (2) - EW, Son!c
Max (4) - Charle, Traf, Dev, EW

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline in 8 minutes

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[Ragian]

Deadline reached - No lynch

[Ragian]

It is now N3

[Ragian]

Night scene

It had been a gruelling couple of days. Not only had Euronymous been killed, but so had Hellhammer, Frost, and Ihsahn. Things were indeed getting out of hand and the black metal community had ended up lynching Abbath in a fit of panic and paranoia. Therefore, most of the community were delighted to learn that no one had died this night.

It is now D4

[Ragian]

Official vote count



With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

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[TrafalgarLaw01]

Sweet finally some good news I reckon

[Extreme Ways]

So we have an extension of day 3, with the added benefit that mafia killed into the jailkept target or the mafia was roleblocked.

[Extreme Ways]

Jailkeeper shouldn't out yet, but we should discuss whether we want the jailkeeper to publish their night results. Doing so means that jailkeeper always dies next night, but it might give info. All depends on context, but 4 nights worth of semi-clears might be good?

[Loose Canon]

Ok so I think I'm correct in saying, everything else being equal, there is a 50/50 chance the jailkeeper jailed a hitman or an intended target.

I believe there would only be 2 nights of semi clears and how useful that information would be depends on whether the N1 semi clear is still in the game or not.

I think if the jailkeeper revealed themselves we'd be virtually forced to lynch the player they jailed.
I think that would take us to either 6 town 1 scum, or 5 town 2 scum (assuming no recruit)
If there was a recruit then detective and other jailkeeper should (I think) come forward straight away after 1st jailkeeper has come forward.

I've not computed all this to work out whether I think on balance jailkeeper should come forward.
Does anyone disagree with anything I've said above?

[Extreme Ways]

Ok so I think I'm correct in saying, everything else being equal, there is a 50/50 chance the jailkeeper jailed a hitman or an intended target.

I believe there would only be 2 nights of semi clears and how useful that information would be depends on whether the N1 semi clear is still in the game or not.

I think if the jailkeeper revealed themselves we'd be virtually forced to lynch the player they jailed.
I think that would take us to either 6 town 1 scum, or 5 town 2 scum (assuming no recruit)
If there was a recruit then detective and other jailkeeper should (I think) come forward straight away after 1st jailkeeper has come forward.

I've not computed all this to work out whether I think on balance jailkeeper should come forward.
Does anyone disagree with anything I've said above?

Yes, you are correct I was wrong. 3 nights of info, not four nights of info. Agree on the 50/50 all else being equal.

There is no recruit, otherwise detective wouldve come forward yesterday. If there is, Max is virtually outed because scum with 3 people could easily dogpile him if he is town.

[Loose Canon]

But ANY detective should declare now presumably, because with the combined evidence of a detective + 2 jailkeepers we'd be pretty close to cracking this, given 3 players would be greenchecked if no counterclaims?

[SoN!c]

Ok so I think I'm correct in saying, everything else being equal, there is a 50/50 chance the jailkeeper jailed a hitman or an intended target.

I believe there would only be 2 nights of semi clears and how useful that information would be depends on whether the N1 semi clear is still in the game or not.

I think if the jailkeeper revealed themselves we'd be virtually forced to lynch the player they jailed.
I think that would take us to either 6 town 1 scum, or 5 town 2 scum (assuming no recruit)
If there was a recruit then detective and other jailkeeper should (I think) come forward straight away after 1st jailkeeper has come forward.

I've not computed all this to work out whether I think on balance jailkeeper should come forward.
Does anyone disagree with anything I've said above?

First reaction : Yes! We got him. Then im reading along and see this amongst other stuff and my spidersense is tingling red hot

So first question: is it allowed for scum to opt "no kill"? Because if they are it's 33-33-33 instead of 50-50?

Second question, i missed the lynch on Max yesterday because GMT +1 is 02.00 am, so im sorry but i was already in bed around 22 pm but why did Loose didn't lynch Max? Lynch is the only weapon town has and no way a town loose could know max isn't scum. Loose is always online in this thread it seems so hard to believe Loose missed the opportunity. He clearly opted to not kill Max yesterday. Which is fine if he (if town) really believes Max is town or helps town (but he is voting charle and Max is no cop if you ask me).

Third question: my gambling / betting thrill seeker side of me kinda like's the idea of lynching the person jailkeeper claims to have jailed (with no counter claim of cop or second jailkeeper ofcourse but that should be out of the question, there is clearly no recruit i say)... then again my safe risk player side says: "are you stupid son?" Why risk a certain win? Why placing all your aces on the table for all to see?

So we should go forward with a regular lynch (with no info from the jailkeeper first) and only if the jailkeeper knows we got the lynch wrong he can come forward... that's extra security. And the way my risk side likes to handle this. Clean win.

So my lynch choice is Max or Loose but in the end i still think it's Loose + a smart scum. Jailkeeper should come forward D5, not before.

I do wanna ask loose if he is still OMGUS voting me or he can see good town reasoning here? yes or no?

[Extreme Ways]

Are't you in my timezone Sonic?

[Devante]

But ANY detective should declare now presumably, because with the combined evidence of a detective + 2 jailkeepers we'd be pretty close to cracking this, given 3 players would be greenchecked if no counterclaims?

Some of your posts come accross odd Loose, EW already kinda of counter claimed this isn't likely why you so hard on a detective/jailkeeper coming forward

[Devante]

Would be funny way this thread has gone if it's Loose/Somic who are scum and the plan was let's just ream on eachother. For now not much has changed from my perspective unless we get new info so I'll continue with last days target. VOTE MAX

[Devante]

*Sonic. Misspelled that

[TrafalgarLaw01]

Some thoughts.

Max got to 5 votes last day. Is he scum and Scum decided not to pile on to save him (Sonic said he was around to chnage vote if needed, but maybe didnt consider max scum or something else) or mafia was not around to hammer a townie.

I'm not completely sure on the 50/50 gamble, but if we got more info, maybe it's not a 50/50, I think Jailkeeper should only claim if he thinks he got more info. Not totaly sold on taking the gamble, but might be our best chance atm, but at least we got more time to discuss.

Max I think u should do a full claim. U were about to be lynched

[Loose Canon]

First of all Sonic, your last post is fine by me.
I'm coming to the conclusion that jailkeeper probably shouldn't reveal right now either.

What I'm thinking on jailkeeper, is if the first person the jailkeeper votes for today was the jailed then a trail is there to follow, which may lead scum to the identity of the jailkeeper, but not necessarily if more than 1 town voted for that person first - its something for the jailkeeper to consider at least - and a jailkeeper could if they like this wait as long as they like today before casting such a vote.

I'm also going to point out that the night phase was remarkably short, indicating decisiveness on part of scum.

And to close on Sonic because he likes attention, I would have come in quickly on you today had there not been no kill, but right now everything - mainly but not exclusively strategy in light of no kill - needs evaluating/reevaluating.

[kongming3]

Some interesting things to consider - I will vote Loose for now but I'll come back and assess things properly in a day or so.

[SoN!c]

Some interesting things to consider - I will vote Loose for now but I'll come back and assess things properly in a day or so.

Amen. I'll second that. Interesting to see if Max is gonna follow too. Max said "FoS Loose" before. And Traf is right. Max needs to full claim.


vote Loose

[Ragian]

Official vote count



Max (1) - Devante
Loose (2) - Kong, Son!c

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

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[Ragian]

Happy Valentine's Day