The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

[saxitoxin]

Polymarket doesnt even allign with the most conservative polls out there

That makes zero sense.

If Polymarket says Trump has a 65% chance of winning, that doesn't mean they're saying Trump is going to get 65% of the EC vote. They're saying there's a 65% chance Trump will get 51% of the EC vote or better. (Actually, even that explanation isn't really correct.)

You can't compare polls and betting odds.

[pmac666]

Polymarket doesnt even allign with the most conservative polls out there

That makes zero sense.

If Polymarket says Trump has a 65% chance of winning, that doesn't mean they're saying Trump is going to get 65% of the EC vote. They're saying there's a 65% chance Trump will get 51% of the EC vote or better.

You can't compare polls and betting odds.

No shit, Sherlock.
And thats why its insanity to not pick Kamala with some good +money.
Its a fkin illusion.

On 365 Kamala is leading with 2,4%, even with some of the crap polls.
This bet is a gift.

[saxitoxin]

Polymarket doesnt even allign with the most conservative polls out there

You can't compare polls and betting odds.

No shit, Sherlock.

Can someone do a welfare check on Captain Von Trapp?

I think he's having a seizure.

[pmac666]

Polymarket doesnt even allign with the most conservative polls out there

You can't compare polls and betting odds.

No shit, Sherlock.

Can someone do a welfare check on Captain Von Trapp?

I think he's having a seizure.

Dude, a rainworm has a better understanding of the numbers than you.

[saxitoxin]

Dude, a rainworm has a better understanding of the numbers than you.

And yet even a rainworm doesn't believe Peter Thiel owns Polymarket.

[pmac666]

Dude, a rainworm has a better understanding of the numbers than you.

And yet even a rainworm doesn't believe Peter Thiel owns Polymarket.

Now thats a comeback.

Im not even arguing from a Kamala vs Trump perspective here, im arguing from a bettors perspective.
On the on hand you have PM with numbers no one else has, ergo a very good price for Kamala, which is by Mookis own analyzis not unlikely a illusion.
And then you have reality, Kamala is leading the aggregates by 2,4. Most likely even more when you account the polling errors since Roe.
Even when Trump somehow eeks it out, this is the fantastic bet we are looking for all year.
+ money and a comfortabale fav. Hurray.

[pmac666]

And a bit more to digest.

Compare their groundgame, the fundraising and their campaigning.
Think of all the angry women out there and the enthusiasm gap.
Think of how many boomers died the last 4 years.
Think of the hundrets of thousands Trump killed with Covid.
Look at the early voting numbers in places like Georgia.
And look at Trump himself with all his legal issues and whos obv winding down a bit (to be generous lol) and has maybe 9 braincells left.

And now please someone tell me that betting Kamala with good + money is a bad bet.

[Dukasaur]

Nobody ever went wrong by betting on the stupidity of the masses.

[saxitoxin]

And now please someone tell me that betting Kamala with good + money is a bad bet.

bro, no one is going to take you up on that offer

if anyone says anything that doesn't agree with your thesis, you're just gonna start howling like a rabid dog that they're a deluded Nazi moron with an IQ of 12 who should die of septic shock from a urinary tract infection

[pmac666]

And now please someone tell me that betting Kamala with good + money is a bad bet.

bro, no one is going to take you up on that offer

if anyone says anything that doesn't agree with your thesis, you're just gonna start howling like a rabid dog that they're a deluded Nazi moron with an IQ of 12 who should die of septic shock from a urinary tract infection

Sry, i should have said, someone with an ounce of brain and atleast a little bit of understanding of numbers and context.
But thx for your contribution.

[Votanic]

: Im not even arguing from a Kamala vs Trump perspective here, im arguing from a bettors perspective.

That's complete non-news.
Everyone knows that all of your whorish foreign machinations serve no purpose other than to engineer your own payout.

[pmac666]

Nobody ever went wrong by betting on the stupidity of the masses.

Yeah thats the ounce of uncertainty, "never underestimate the stupidity of americans".
But not this time, the numbers are simply not there anymore.
Florida flips blue before Trump wins this election.

[Votanic]

Nobody ever went wrong by betting on the stupidity of the masses.

Yeah thats the ounce of uncertainty, "never underestimate the stupidity of americans".
But not this time, the numbers are simply not there anymore.
Florida flips blue before Trump wins this election.

Alas, the true irony of American stupidity if Kamala were to win seems to be entirely lost on pee6 and his peenut gallery...

[saxitoxin]

The Boss made a surprise drop-in to Knock-Out, a Latino-owned barbershop in the Bronx this afternoon.



WNYC-TV reported on universal pedestrian excitement of onlookers who gathered outside the barbershop after hearing The Boss was there. Unfortunately, there was one protester. However, he was promptly dragged away by the NYPD and The Boss never even saw him.

[Votanic]

The Boss made a surprise drop-in to Knock-Out, a Latino-owned barbershop in the Bronx this afternoon.



WNYC-TV reported on universal pedestrian excitement of onlookers who gathered outside the barbershop after hearing The Boss was there. Unfortunately, there was one protester. However, he was promptly dragged away by the NYPD and The Boss never even saw him.

Even Trump isn't perfect.
He missed a golden opportunity here to get an ultra-sleek, calera-ready, pre-election mohawk/.
This would have had the effec tof both immediately branding him as the real radical choice and delivered a flipping judo throw to all those tired old & woke Travis Bickles out there.

[jusplay4fun]

Most say that Pennsylvania is the KEY swing state. Here is another poll:

After a fairly solid lead during the early days of Vice President Kamala Harris’ entry into the race, the equation has become more even now, and voter sentiment in key swing states, therefore, assumes importance. A recent poll that concluded on Tuesday suggests Republican candidate Donald Trump now leads in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, which goes by the moniker ‘Keystone State.’

What Happened: Trump was ahead of Harris by a two percentage point margin as he received 48% support of voters in the key swing state of Pennsylvania compared to 46% for the latter, a survey by InsiderAdvantage showed. About 2% supported others and 2% of the voters surveyed were undecided.

The only sore spot is that the lead is still fragile, given it was within the survey’s margin of error of 3.46%.

The pollster said the former president was gaining momentum in the state, with his support among independents, seniors and African voters either increasing or holding steady. On the other hand, Harris’ support among African American males has deteriorated a bit.

“This race continues to remain very close with turnout and enthusiasm remaining important,” the pollster said, adding that the Democrats currently enjoy a slight advantage with regard to enthusiasm at this point, although the gap has narrowed.

Another sign of the shifting momentum is the narrowing gap in voter sentiment toward the Senate candidates. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) is now ahead of his Republican rival Dave McCormick by only two points, with the equation at 47%-45%, the pollster said.

Why It’s Important: The poll results come with just 25 days away from the all-important Nov. 5 election, which will seal the fate of the candidates. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral college votes and this state went to President Joe Biden in the 2020 election by a little over 1% margin.

An Emerson College poll conducted from Sept. 27-28 showed both Trump and Harris tied, with 48% support each.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-vs-harris-new-poll-shows-pennsylvania-may-flip-as-vice-president-s-support-among-this-key-group-deteriorates/ar-AA1s1Zs0?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=2a43ad0b37d44d59ad3c5d983f606ec2&ei=40

[jusplay4fun]

More insights:

[jusplay4fun]

Gee Saxi, thought this disaster was inflicted by GOD! To punish these RED States for kneeling and praying to the false prophet Trump.

North Carolina has a Democratic governor, dumbass

This was the map of RED and BLUE States in 2020
https://youtu.be/J7GY1Xg6X20?si=Du3UIGGO_UidPmQQ

Saxi, looks like you're wishing harm on North Carolina families. Is it because the State is going BLUE?

[b][i]In 2020 North Carolina went RED and now the people of North Carolina are tired of the hate and intolerance of Trump and stupidity of posters like yourself. North Carolina will go [color=#4000BF]BLUE in 2024!

pee-rat continues to ignore reality and facts. Saxi and I point out how close this election will be; meanwhile, pee-rat continues to paint a false narrative as he predicts CONFIDENTLY of a Kamala victory. How silly is pee-rat? VERY.

[saxitoxin]

AWKWARD!!!

The Boss gave the keynote address to the Albert Smith Memorial Dinner tonight in New York City. Senator Schumer was seated right next to him and The Boss repeatedly patted him on the back, rubbed him on the back, joked about him, told stories about him from when they knew each other back in the day ... you can tell how absolutely uncomfortable Schumer is!

"Look at it this way Chuck. Considering how woke your party has become, if Kamala loses you can still become the first woman president."

He then told jokes at (federally indicted) Mayor Eric Adams expense, who was also seated on the dais and looked straight forward the entire time, a frown etched into his face, as everyone to either side of him laughed. And New York Attorney-General Leticia James who sat stone-faced and horrified as everyone roared at The Boss' jokes -- but he never said anything about her.



The ones he joked about are fine if he's restored. They haven't personally offended the Boss -- it's all politics. But the ones who were there and didn't get mentioned will probably be the first ones against the wall during the National Reorganization Process.

[pmac666]

Gee Saxi, thought this disaster was inflicted by GOD! To punish these RED States for kneeling and praying to the false prophet Trump.

North Carolina has a Democratic governor, dumbass

This was the map of RED and BLUE States in 2020
https://youtu.be/J7GY1Xg6X20?si=Du3UIGGO_UidPmQQ

Saxi, looks like you're wishing harm on North Carolina families. Is it because the State is going BLUE?

[b][i]In 2020 North Carolina went RED and now the people of North Carolina are tired of the hate and intolerance of Trump and stupidity of posters like yourself. North Carolina will go [color=#4000BF]BLUE in 2024!

pee-rat continues to ignore reality and facts. Saxi and I point out how close this election will be; meanwhile, pee-rat continues to paint a false narrative as he predicts CONFIDENTLY of a Kamala victory. How silly is pee-rat? VERY.

Im as silly as i was 2 yrs ago when i said there is no red wave. And 4 yrs ago when i said Biden easy.
It wont be particually close and youre falling for a illusion again.
And i have a track record of being right, unlike you dumbos.
But ofc im not surprised when you read opinion pieces by some deranged trumpers all day.
Alone the fact that the same ppl who told us that Trump would win easy in 20, the same ppl that told the story of a red wave in 22 are now convincing everyone of a super close election should tell you the story.

As said, the best case for Trump is that the actual polls are correct. But then, hes still losing.
Only i tend to think they are off by atleast 1-2 points in Kamalas favour as seen since the end of Roe (often way more than 1- 2 points). And then it will be a dirty night for republicans and it will be very joyful.
Sry if reality hurts your feefees.
But you will get 8 beautiful years to cope.
TRUMP 2028!!!

[pmac666]

Dave Bautista ftw.

Dave Bautista roasts Donald Trump's masculinity and calls him a "whiny little bitch."

“Fellas, we gotta talk. A lot of men seem to think that Donald Trump is some kind of tough guy. He’s not. I mean, look at him, he wears more makeup than Dolly Parton. He whines like a baby. The guy is afraid of birds. Donald Trump had his daddy pay a doctor to say his little feet hurt so he could dodge the draft. Look at that guy. It’s like a garbage bag full of buttermilk, hes barely strong enough to hold an umbrella...you know that little dance he does? He looks like he’s jacking off a pair of giraffes. He's moody. He pouts. He throws tantrums. He acts like a five year old behind the wheels of a truck. This November, let's stop kidding ourselves."

From americas heart. lol

[pmac666]

Btw what will make that of Trump after he lost to a demented dude in his basement and now losing to a super unpopular, low iq black woman?
Is there a word for it? I cant think of one..... loser and whiney little bitch doesnt describe that anymore.

[ConfederateSS]

Btw what will make that of Trump after he lost to a demented dude in his basement and now losing to a super unpopular, low iq black woman?
Is there a word for it? I cant think of one..... loser and whiney little bitch doesnt describe that anymore.

-------------Try,
-------------- GROVER CLEVELAND 2.0 ... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...

[mookiemcgee]

Fox news using a pad to keep their white couch clean and free of Trumpy-poopy stains.

[pmac666]

Btw what will make that of Trump after he lost to a demented dude in his basement and now losing to a super unpopular, low iq black woman?
Is there a word for it? I cant think of one..... loser and whiney little bitch doesnt describe that anymore.

-------------Try,
-------------- GROVER CLEVELAND 2.0 ... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...

Rather Groper Cleveland.

Think thats not true Mookie, its his suit.....
As beautiful as it would be.