Official Pre-Election Megathread

[saxitoxin]

Here is a thread for non-partisan discussion of the 2020 election! In this thread, saxi will not belittle or name-call Biden or other CCers. If he gets the urge, he will go to a different thread and hose it down.

[saxitoxin]

PLUSSES FOR BIDEN

- The four most accurate polls in the 2016 election show Biden winning the national popular vote:

Rasmussen: Biden + 3% (within margin of error)
USC: Biden + 6%
IBD/TIPP: Biden + 7%
Zogby: Biden +3% (within margin of error)

- In battleground states, Biden is currently up 0.5% in polling average versus where Hillary was at this time in 2016.

PLUSSES FOR TRUMP

- No candidate in history has ever been elected president if he received less than 25% of his party's vote in the New Hampshire primary. Biden received 8%.

- In 15 of the last 17 elections, the incumbent party candidate has always won if the S&P 500 is trending up in the 90 days prior to the election, which it is now.

- Ohio has voted for the winner of the presidential election in every contest in the last 56 years and in all but two contests in the last 124 years. It voted Trump in 2016 and Trump is currently leading in Ohio by a polling average of 2 percent.

- Biden needs to win the popular vote by more than 3% in order to have a better than 50% chance of winning the Electoral College. Three of the four above polls put him out of reach of that threshold at the bottom end of the margin of error. [538]

WILD CARDS

- The IBD/TIPP poll and the USC poll have changed their methodology since the 2016 election. They may either be more or less accurate as a result, or it may be a wash.

[riskllama]

what is "megathread"?

[mrswdk]

Do the American polls take into account that where votes are cast matters, not just raw % of the population that support a particular candidate?

During Theresa May’s re-election a few years back one polling company weighted their results to make a prediction for each individual seat then worked out what those seat-level predictions meant for the final result once combined, and they correctly forecast a hung parliament while everyone else out there was tugging themselves off predicting the Conservatives would get an enormous majority.

[mrswdk]

what is "megathread"?

Think he misspelled magathread.

[riskllama]

what is "megathread"?

Think he misspelled magathread.

seems like the most plausible explanation, yes. after a quick google search of the term "megathread", this sorry excuse does meet any of the criteria... .

2/10

[saxitoxin]

Do the American polls take into account that where votes are cast matters, not just raw % of the population that support a particular candidate?

You can work out hypothetical scenarios here at 270towin.com and there are state-level polls at realclearpolitics.com. However, in 2016, the national polling was generally accurate but the state-level polls were all over the place.

they correctly forecast a hung parliament while everyone else out there was tugging themselves off predicting the Conservatives would get an enormous majority

My understanding is that those who are hung also tug themselves off. I wouldn't know, though.

2/10

riskllama =
-∞

[mrswdk]

they correctly forecast a hung parliament while everyone else out there was tugging themselves off predicting the Conservatives would get an enormous majority

My understanding is that those who are hung also tug themselves off. I wouldn't know, though.

be me, saxitoxin

get home from my vasectomy

hear moaning and slapping coming from my wife's room

must be Chad again

know they would want privacy, sit down at my computer

log onto CCs and open OT

read a message from madam wdk and chuckle as I listen to my wife begging for the genes I can't give her

think of a convoluted way in which I can relate sex to the contents of madam wdk's message

suck the cheeto dust off my fingers as I begin to type my masterpiece in the reply box

My understanding is that those who are hung also tug themselves off. I wouldn't know, though.

giggle as I imagine the intellectuals of OT perusing my incredibly witty and original comment

hear my wife moan with ecstasy as Chad floods her fertile womb with his seed

it's been a good day

i'll get lots of saxibucks for my impressive contribution to internet culture, and Chad might even let me eat his cum out of my wife's pussy if he finds my comment funny enough

[saxitoxin]

they correctly forecast a hung parliament while everyone else out there was tugging themselves off predicting the Conservatives would get an enormous majority

My understanding is that those who are hung also tug themselves off. I wouldn't know, though.

be me, saxitoxin

get home from my vasectomy

hear moaning and slapping coming from my wife's room

must be Chad again

know they would want privacy, sit down at my computer

log onto CCs and open OT

read a message from madam wdk and chuckle as I listen to my wife begging for the genes I can't give her

think of a convoluted way in which I can relate sex to the contents of madam wdk's message

suck the cheeto dust off my fingers as I begin to type my masterpiece in the reply box

My understanding is that those who are hung also tug themselves off. I wouldn't know, though.

giggle as I imagine the intellectuals of OT perusing my incredibly witty and original comment

hear my wife moan with ecstasy as Chad floods her fertile womb with his seed

it's been a good day

i'll get lots of saxibucks for my impressive contribution to internet culture, and Chad might even let me eat his cum out of my wife's pussy if he finds my comment funny enough

RUDE

[riskllama]

agreed. and more than a little creepy...

[saxitoxin]

Today's polling update -

-Rasmussen: Trump + 1% (within margin of error)
-USC: Biden + 4%
-IBD/TIPP: Biden + 4%
-Zogby: Biden +3% (within margin of error) --- no update today
-In the aggregate of battleground states, Biden is currently up 1.1% versus where Hillary was at this time in 2016.

[riskllama]

flemming rasmussen?

[2dimes]

Ian Flemming is running for president?

[saxitoxin]

New Trump ad just dropped:

[2dimes]

I can't decide where to put this. I found it interesting.

Basically the few Biden supporters she found were unable to explain much beyond, "I like him and trump is poopy."

show

[PostPostModern]

Is there a poll somewhere where we can vote on who we think will win? I can't vote obviously but I still find it very interesting to see who will win. I heard one expert on these kinds of election prediction's give Biden a 90% chance of winning, another expert gave Trump a 90% chance of winning.

I kinda want it to be a draw so none of them can say they were right.

[saxitoxin]

'I purely vote for my actual interests': Black men could be critical bloc in presidential election

With one week left until the general election, some experts say Black men are a key demographic that could shock the country on Election Day and vote for Trump in surprising numbers. Since at least 2000, the percentage of Black voters who identify or lean Democrat has never fallen below 81 percent, according to Pew Research, but this year, Black men, like Williams, have been vocal about their interests and their belief they are often an afterthought of politicians who assume they will all vote Democrat.

In fact, new polling out of Texas shows that Trump maintains a narrow lead in the state in large part thanks to the Black vote.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/i-purely-vot ... 37805.html

[2dimes]

Is there a poll somewhere where we can vote on who we think will win? I can't vote obviously but I still find it very interesting to see who will win. I heard one expert on these kinds of election prediction's give Biden a 90% chance of winning, another expert gave Trump a 90% chance of winning.

I kinda want it to be a draw so none of them can say they were right.

Here you go.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=234560

Biden is winning there too.

[PostPostModern]

Is there a poll somewhere where we can vote on who we think will win? I can't vote obviously but I still find it very interesting to see who will win. I heard one expert on these kinds of election prediction's give Biden a 90% chance of winning, another expert gave Trump a 90% chance of winning.

I kinda want it to be a draw so none of them can say they were right.

Here you go.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=234560

Biden is winning there too.

I think the sample size is a tad bit too small at the moment to conclude anything but thumbs up for the link. I won't compromise what little accuracy there is in the poll by registering a foreigners vote though.

[riskllama]

you might as well, PPM - according to Republicans, anybody & everybody under the sun will be voting for Biden. btw, welcome to CC & how do you feel about Entombed?

[saxitoxin]

Is there a poll somewhere where we can vote on who we think will win? I can't vote obviously but I still find it very interesting to see who will win. I heard one expert on these kinds of election prediction's give Biden a 90% chance of winning, another expert gave Trump a 90% chance of winning.

I kinda want it to be a draw so none of them can say they were right.

Here you go.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=234560

Biden is winning there too.

I think the sample size is a tad bit too small at the moment to conclude anything but thumbs up for the link. I won't compromise what little accuracy there is in the poll by registering a foreigners vote though.

WELCOME TO CC!

Do you know Gilpig?

He's also Swedish so there's a 70%+ chance you know him.

[mookiemcgee]

Yiwu Index still heavily favoring Trump this election

[mrswdk]

'I purely vote for my actual interests': Black men could be critical bloc in presidential election

With one week left until the general election, some experts say Black men are a key demographic that could shock the country on Election Day and vote for Trump in surprising numbers. Since at least 2000, the percentage of Black voters who identify or lean Democrat has never fallen below 81 percent, according to Pew Research, but this year, Black men, like Williams, have been vocal about their interests and their belief they are often an afterthought of politicians who assume they will all vote Democrat.

In fact, new polling out of Texas shows that Trump maintains a narrow lead in the state in large part thanks to the Black vote.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/i-purely-vot ... 37805.html

The fact American pollsters think there is such a thing as a 'black vote' is why BLM is still needed.

[saxitoxin]

Trump and Biden are now no holds barred and held competing rallies in must-win Florida yesterday. Biden was in Orlando while Trump was in The Villages, just an hour away.