by strike wolf on Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:19 am
Depends. If were no lynching, giving my,updated reads is probably only playing into mafias hands and letting them know if it's worth it to try to kill me or not or block me if they have a role blocker.
Role blocker scenario: Not saying probably means theyll block me just to be sure I dont end up nailing the second one as well which isnt ideal but could keep the other power roles free to act freely. I'm limited utility now that Ive said my role. Even knowing this, mafia will probably follow this.
No role blocker: Im probably not going to be killed if there's a no lynch. This would most likely only happen if Im somehow wrong about Aage and mafia wants to frame him. Even this is somewhat unlikely because being wrong on Aage means one of three things:
a. I'm insane/paranoid. Ive pretty much dismissed this one as an alternate sanity cop in a game this small would be pretty bastardish. Both are pretty much negative utility roles in a game this size. Killing me would just reveal that my investigation on Aage means hes innocent or doesn't mean anything so there's no point in killing me to frame him.
b. Theres a mafia bus driver: this is the only option as a town busdriver would have come forward to reveal the real guilty party by now. In this situation, mafia wojld probably try to kill me.
c. Aage is a miller-Unlikely. If he knes he was a miller. He would have said so by now and wven if he didnt say he would have had a different tone in addressing the accusation. Beyond that, Millers just arent very common roles.
Now less directly, I pretty much have to operate under the assumption thay these arent true. The first and third for obvious reasons and thw second because there's no chance that well ever know if Aage was busdriven. Its obvious no one watched Aage be visited by a bus driver because theu would have most likely already piped up about how they didnt see me visit Aage and its unlikelt anyone tracked a bus driver visiting aage and,someone else because if they had they would probably already have pieced it togethet that they must have been tracking a busdriver and piped up that blah de blah is the real probable scum. Also, cop + track/watch isnt super likely in this game that we already know includes at least one vanilla.
Anyways, operaging under these assumptions, I have a 1/4 cjance of hitting scum investigating blindly. I give my updated reads and only scum will know if the ones Im choosing increase or decrease the statistical likelihood of me hitting scum.
Now if we lynxh Aage as I think we should than theres a pretty good chance that Ill be killed or at least targeted for the kill tonight.
Ultimately right now. Lynching Aage is high reward, moderate risk becaise of MyLo and no lynching is low risk low reward. Im okay no lynching because I dont tjink it will hurt town in the long run.
And Im out of time. Wanted to rewrite this much more coherently and get a bit into other things but will have to get back to it later.
Maxleod wrote:Not strike, he's the only one with a functioning brain.
