NomadPatriot wrote:Analysis: The Different Stages of Iranian Support for ISIS
In 2012, the United States Treasury Department exposed the extensive financial ties between Iran and al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the terrorist organization that evolved into ISIS. The generous support Iran afforded ISIS in its formative years was part of a broader alliance that the Islamic Republic established with al-Qaeda over a decade ago.
http://www.thetower.org/2699-analysis-the-different-stages-of-iranian-support-for-isis/ISIS -->burns people in cages alive.
Nobody, but nobody, is denying that the Iranian regime are wicked, wicked assholes.
Thing is, what to do about that? The world is full of wicked asshole dictators. We can't overthrow them all. We have to coexist.
What the world agreed to in 2015 was a carrot-and-stick approach to dealing with Iran. As long as Iran became less threatening (ie. with the nukes) it would be rewarded with better relations (carrot). If it failed to do so, there would be a resumption of sanctions (stick). Over time, relations would get better and other deals would eventually follow, like on curbing terrorism.
What Trump has done is to throw the carrot in the garbage can and go with a pure stick-and-stick strategy. That does work, if the target is small and meek. Iran is neither small nor meek. With no carrot, it has no motive to behave itself. It's not going to show weakness and give in to the stick. In the end, the U.S. will either have to offer a carrot (which is where we were before Trump threw it out) or it will have to go all-in and invade.
If the U.S. invades, we know how that will go. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan. The Iranian military will be utterly crushed by the superior firepower of the American forces. Then, having won the war, the U.S. will have no idea how to win the peace. It will be stuck policing a resentful population that will start out grateful but will grow more hostile with every month that the occupation continues. The bloodshed will continue, the drain on the American taxpayer will continue, and after years or decades of wasted effort you'll pull out and leave the place in the hands of someone not much better than the people you took it away from.
