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America The Land of the Free

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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby HitRed on Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:06 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:
patches70 wrote:
HitRed wrote:The faster we return to silver the better. This experiment can go on a long time but not forever. Money backed up by assets in the end will rule.

HitRed


I'm going to try and explain this the best I can. But I will say that I personally would probably prefer a commodity based currency system over what we have now, but there is still trepidation. I'm not sure if you fully understand the pitfalls you are advocating into going into a silver backed or gold back currency (which are commodities BTW).

While it is true that commodity based currencies are more stable than fiat currencies, there are certain limitations to commodity based currencies that can be debilitating. The biggest one is the scarcity of currency.

In commodity based systems you can only have the amount of currency in circulation that you have commodities it is based on in reserve. This may or may not be a bad thing, but you have to remember why we invented money in the first place. Mankind invented money so that people could lead productive to trade goods easily to live moral lives. Money helps facilitate the trading far better than say a barter system. Barter systems work, but they are just no efficient.
Is there enough silver and gold in the world that can be held in reserve to service all the trade throughout the world to such an extent that everyone can get the things they need to live and lead moral productive lives? I don't know. Remember, all the reserves can't be used in industry. Gold and Silver are both used in industry. Hell we wouldn't be able to build stealth fighters and bombers without Gold for instance. None of those resources can be used because they have to be held in reserve to back the currency you are using.

Another problem is that getting a loan is much harder with commodity based currencies. Since it won't be a readily available those making loans have to be very careful in how and to whom they loan money. Now this can help eliminate moral hazard which is a big problem with fiat currencies, but it will also lead to a credit glut, which if you remember the crash in 2008 is a real problem.

The Pros of commodity based systems is that they are very, very stable, like extremely stable. There is also almost zero inflation. Both of which is very good as fiat currencies are the exact opposite of this, unstable and prone to large swings of inflation and deflation.

The cons are that as a society we'd have to pay more attention to what we divert resources to since we'll be very limited as to what we can throw money at. Fiat currencies are great in this area, because you can just print up or create as much as you want to throw money into whatever projects you want, though you have to deal with inflation in doing such.
The easy access to fiat currencies also gives rise to moral hazard which wastes actual resources that can be much better served in other areas.

I can see the appeal in fiat currencies. Try to remember, the British Empire was built using the tally stick. The tally stick was just a piece of wood and with it the British funded their entire empire

Oh, and I almost forgot, one of the worst things about commodity based systems is Gresham's Law. Such things have destroyed entire empires, Like the Roman Empire which had a Gold Based system. Bad money always drives out good money for obvious reasons. For instance, if you had a quarter made of pure silver and another quarter made of zinc, tin and a little bit of copper, which quarter are you going to put into the vending machine? If you are a moron you'll use the silver quarter, but if you are a normal person you'll realize the silver quarter is more valuable than the face value of the coin so you won't spend it, you'll put that away for safe keeping and use the cheap quarter instead. This is why the Roman Empire's economy collapses, because they had to debase their coinage because they didn't have enough gold and silver to fund their empire. In an effort to increase their gold and silver holdings they debased their coins and started using coins with less and less gold and silver. This cause people to hoard the full value coins and spend on the debased coins, which further exasperated the dire economic situation.


Patches, which way would you advocate as best for the USA in the modern age? Stick with fiat, or return to gold? or is there a 3rd option, and what can you add to your previous post regarding blockchain? These last two posts were great BTW.


I understand what I am saying. My city has over 3 million people and house going up like everywhere. With limited credit would be limited expansion and overcrowding, less demand on the water supply and electricity. Bigger isn't always better and more isn't always better either. You can NEVER build enough roads to stop congestion as a city expands.

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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby armati on Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:09 pm

Bit of an interesting one.

Capital controls have begun, which we already have but now were gonna get more.
https://youtu.be/gFKBygIuYSE

For anyone that doesnt know, capital controls stop you from doing what you want with your money.

Dont worry tho, its all for your own good. lol :shock:
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby Dukasaur on Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:20 pm

Fears of a currency meltdown are over-rated. Basically it's just a scoreboard reset in the Game of Life. People who have racked up a lot of points will lose a bunch. People who don't have much have little to fear. For a few months life will have a few extra hassles. You may have to do a bit of bartering and possibly make some sacrifices, but soon enough a new currency will emerge and life will go on. As long as you're a productive person people will always need whatever it is you produce. They'll figure out what to pay you with soon enough.

A commodity-based currency makes no sense nowadays. The economy grows so fast and the supply of commodities grows so slowly. When the economy is growing at 5% a year and the supply of gold is growing at 0.005% a year, trying to return to a gold standard would be just a gift to those people who have gold. Ditto for any other commodity. Most of the growth in the economy is in services, intangible goods and consumable goods. Asking people to pay for a (rapidly-expanding) supply of intangible or consumable goods with a currency based on (very slowly expanding) durable commodities would just be a tax on people who produce the former and a windfall profit to those who produce the latter.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:02 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:
Patches, which way would you advocate as best for the USA in the modern age? Stick with fiat, or return to gold? or is there a 3rd option, and what can you add to your previous post regarding blockchain? These last two posts were great BTW.


I know nothing about blockchain.

On the other question, I don't know for sure. There is a third option, a commodity currency doesn't have to be backed by precious metal. We all remember the story in the Bible about Joseph who had the dream about the seven fat cows and the seven lean cows. Joseph told Pharaoh that there would be seven good years of growing and then seven years of famine. Egypt at the time had a wheat based monetary system. Any Egyptian could take their money to any royal grain house and exchange for grain. Pharaoh took Joseph's advice to heart and stored up a lot of grain. When the famine came all the nations of the Earth at the time began to starve. Except Egypt. Not only that but those nations around Egypt came to Egypt to buy grain and Egypt became fabulously wealthy. Those people had to pay gold, precious stones, exotic goods and everything else for the grain.

A commodity based currency is probably better in the long run for a society. We see what fast easy money has done to society, haven't we? Let's not forget that ultimately it was moral hazard that caused the crash in 2008, a whole lot of malinvestment that eventually went belly up, as it was most assuredly known it would and people were warning about it. Moral hazard is a lot harder in a sound money system, I'm just not sure what commodity would be best to use.

One thing is for sure, our current monetary system isn't going to last. All fiat currencies have a 100% failure rate. Ours is no different. What replaces it, probably yet another fiat system, but who knows. Lots of people (read Nations) have been buying up a lot of gold recently and they tend to know a lot more than the rest of us pleebs. I think there are some people who are betting that when the current system fails, and it will fail, that it'll be Gold money that emerges.


armati wrote:there is always enough gold to facilitate a gold backed currency, its not the amount of gold that matters, its price.
Its entirely possible to print as much as is required for society to operate.


This is incorrect thinking, with all due respect. If you just keep raising the price of gold so you can print more money you are, in fact, debasing the currency. That causes inflation.

I let you do a little experiment. Did you know that everything still costs the same as it did in Roman times? Exactly the same. The prices for things hasn't raised not a single bit, if you measure the price in anything other than currency.
for instance, In ancient Rome you could buy a nice toga, a jug of fine wine and a hearty meal with an ounce of gold. Today, if you cash in an ounce of gold you'll be able to buy a nice suit, a nice bottle of wine and buy a fantastic dinner.

In fact everything is cheaper now than it ever has been in the history of the world, as it should when you consider industrialization and modern tech. In 1930 an ounce of gold was I think $35 or maybe $20. Let's just go with 35. That money would have bought you about 140 loaves of bread. Today, gold is about $1240 and you could buy close to 700 loaves of bread. $35 today won't even buy you 17 loaves of bread. The very same ounce of gold buys more bread today than 80 years ago but in dollars you can't even match what you could buy for a $1 80 years ago. You can't even match with your $1 what you could buy 25 years ago. It's not that what you are buying got more expensive, it didn't, the price actually went down, it's that the currency you have to use is worth less. And it'll be worth less tomorrow than it is today. So it is with all fiat currencies, including your scheme to try and artificial raise the price of gold to print more dollars. All that happens is that goods will rise in cost right along in dollars, which everyone will be using since not too many people are walking around with bags of gold coins.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:09 pm

HitRed wrote:
I understand what I am saying. My city has over 3 million people and house going up like everywhere. With limited credit would be limited expansion and overcrowding, less demand on the water supply and electricity. Bigger isn't always better and more isn't always better either. You can NEVER build enough roads to stop congestion as a city expands.

HitRed


Ohno, you a sound money doesn't limit what people need. All those things are still needed, no matter what. If there was no currency you still need a roof over your head. You still need food, water, other human companionship. Electricity you can technically get along without, but in this day and age, not so much. The point is, we need a monetary system that allows everyone to be able to get those things efficiently. Commodity money might not be that vehicle. Or it might be.

The last thing you want to do is use money to limit people. That's not why we invented money. In fact, to use money to limit people is morally wrong and ethically despicable. Be careful thinking about using monetary policy to achieve goals you think we need. The only thing you know is what you need. You can speak for no one else, no adult at least. Let every man decide for themselves what they need, and design a monetary system that allows people to at least have a chance to get there.

Get it?
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:18 pm

patches70 wrote:
I let you do a little experiment. Did you know that everything still costs the same as it did in Roman times? Exactly the same. The prices for things hasn't raised not a single bit, if you measure the price in anything other than currency.
for instance, In ancient Rome you could buy a nice toga, a jug of fine wine and a hearty meal with an ounce of gold. Today, if you cash in an ounce of gold you'll be able to buy a nice suit, a nice bottle of wine and buy a fantastic dinner.

In fact everything is cheaper now than it ever has been in the history of the world, as it should when you consider industrialization and modern tech. In 1930 an ounce of gold was I think $35 or maybe $20. Let's just go with 35. That money would have bought you about 140 loaves of bread. Today, gold is about $1240 and you could buy close to 700 loaves of bread. $35 today won't even buy you 17 loaves of bread. The very same ounce of gold buys more bread today than 80 years ago but in dollars you can't even match what you could buy for a $1 80 years ago. You can't even match with your $1 what you could buy 25 years ago. It's not that what you are buying got more expensive, it didn't, the price actually went down, it's that the currency you have to use is worth less. And it'll be worth less tomorrow than it is today. So it is with all fiat currencies, including your scheme to try and artificial raise the price of gold to print more dollars. All that happens is that goods will rise in cost right along in dollars, which everyone will be using since not too many people are walking around with bags of gold coins.


Question:
Aren't a nice suit, a nice bottle of wine, and a fantastic dinner today much much better than a nice toga, a jug of fine wine and a hearty meal from 1000's of years ago? In other words, while in ratio to past times the actual goods are much better than they were before right (in most cases)? So net/net we are better off than we were even if things were the same "price". Just trying to make an argument that while $1 might not be worth what it was 100 years ago, someone 100 years ago would gladly spends all their fortune (if they had one) on a single iphone, google search, ticket to a modern movie? I dunno if I'm getting my point across or if this is just too abstract of an argument but I appreciate you making me thing with these posts, your analogies are enlightening.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:37 pm

armati wrote:Nice post Patches, I agree with most of what your saying.



we dont generally recycle silver like we do gold, which you knew, theoretically, silver should one day be the same price as gold as we throw it away after use and our society can not function with out it.


You can't recycle Gold and Silver. The very first piece of Gold ever dug up by man is still here. Same with Silver. You can re-task silver and gold.

armati wrote:The austrians like to say that gold reduces the chance of over printing, thing is thats not true, the gold standard did nothing to prevent printing in both world wars.


No, and fraud is always around. Nixon slammed the Gold window in 1972 because of this fraud. That is at the time we had a quasi gold standard. That is American's couldn't redeem their dollars for gold, but foreign nations could. To pay for Vietnam we printed more dollars than we had gold for. It was France who started it all. France realized that the US was printing too many dollars and started cashing in their reserves for gold. That started a gold rush as the other European nations started doing the same so Nixon ordered the end of the ability for nations to redeem dollars for Gold and the US went to a full fiat monetary system, the same we use today. That was when our current monetary system began. That's how old it is. It was born during Nixon's time and since that day the dollar has lost 95% of it's value, as we all knew would happen.

This was always the problem with gold certificates. It began with the Goldsmiths in England a very long time ago. You'd leave your gold with a goldsmith and he'd give you a note. Pretty soon those notes started being used as money, as they were worth a measure of gold. The goldsmiths figured out real quite that not everybody can and withdrew their gold all at the same time so the goldsmiths started making more certificates than they had actual gold. That's fraud. Pure and simple and when the jig is up, some people were able to get their gold back, the rest, out of luck and the goldsmith ended up at the end of a rope,if he was caught.

armati wrote:You mentioned treasuries, Russia is at about zero now and other nations are dumping them as fast as they can without destroying the value of the ones they hold.[/quote

yep, this is a very recent thing. Russia no longer appears on the list of the biggest American debt holders. To be on the list you have to have at least $30 billion in bonds. Russia now has less than that. There are now, currently, 33 nations on that list, with China being #1 and Chile being #33. Russia used to be in the top ten but in April and May of this year alone they liquidated some $85billion in bonds. How much they have left is anyone's guess at this point, from the last bits of data available they have around $14 billion in Treasury bills. But that's just a guess at this point.
Considering the current climate though, can anyone blame them?
What you have to watch is Russia just the first one through the door on a run?



armati wrote:The point of course is that eventually there is not enough profit in commerce to tax to pay a minimum payment on the debt.


Well that's the thing. During the Obama years The Fed ZIRPed. If the US had had to pay the same interest rate as we did in 1980 the interest alone would have been over $1 trillion a year. AS it stands now, it's something around $330 billion or so, I haven't checked it in a while. But if interest rates went to "normal" we'd already be fucked. The Fed is taking the hammering, and that's how you know that it won't last much longer. The "it" being the current monetary system. The debt is so high that interest rates can't normalize. That means the next crash and that's it. The Fed doesn't have anywhere to go. ZIRP barely saved the system in 2008 and we are close to ZIRP already just to keep this party going. You can't go less than zero so when (notif) the next 2008 type crash comes, The Fed is out of ammunition to tokick the can down the road.

It will be interesting to see how it goes. Duk there thinks it'll be no big deal. He might be right, but I am more of the thought that he himself will take it bad. For instance, the average Joe, all savings will be wiped out, I mean nothing left at all. If you're close to retiring, you're fucked. If you have any debt at all, including mortgages, you can expect those loans to be called in. Most of the average Joe's don't have their entire mortgage costs just laying around, so the Average Joe is going to lose his house. It wasn't his house anyway if he had a mortgage, it was the bank's. Most average Joe's are going to lose their jobs as companies are going to cut everything and try to horde cash for as long as they can and probably liquidate.

Duk is correct that eventually things will work out. But in the meantime it'll be a pain like few of us have ever known, unless you were alive during the Great Depression, which I doubt very much. None of us here has any inkling of how bad it'll be because we haven't ever lived through something like that. The last Great Depression ended up leading to the most destructive war the world has ever seen. Imagine that. Now imagine that the Next Great Depression could very well lead to a war that makes WWII look like a pillow fight.

So, things will work out one way or another, but it won't be back to life a normal either way, I assure you all.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby armati on Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:50 pm

1. 95% of economics is common sense

You don’t need a degree to understand it

We’ve got this profession wrong; a lot of professional economists think what they do is too difficult for ordinary people. You’d be surprised how often these people are stupid enough to say things, at least in private, like ‘you wouldn’t understand what I do even if I explained it to you’. If you cannot explain it to other people, you have the problem.

People express strong opinions on all sorts of things despite not having the appropriate expertise: climate change, gay marriage, the Iraq War, nuclear power stations. But when it comes to economic issues, many people are not even interested, not to speak of not having a strong opinion about them. When was the last time you had a debate on the future of the Euro, inequality in China or the American manufacturing industry, despite the fact that these issues can have a huge impact on your life, wherever you live?



2. Economics is not a science

Despite what the experts want you to believe, there is more than one way of ‘doing’ economics

People have been led to believe that, like physics or chemistry, economics is a ‘science’, in which there is only one correct answer to everything; thus non-experts should simply accept the ‘professional consensus’ and stop thinking about it.

Contrary to what most economists would have you believe, there isn’t just one kind of economics – Neoclassical economics. In fact there are no less than nine different kinds, or schools, as they are often known. And none of these schools can claim superiority over others and still less monopoly over truth.


3. Economics is politics

Economic arguments are often justification for what politicians want to do anyway

Economics is a political argument. It is not – and can never be – a science.

Behind every economic policy and corporate action that affect our lives – the minimum wage, outsourcing, social security, food safety, pensions and whatnot – lies some economic theory that either has inspired those actions or, more frequently, is providing justification of what those in power want to do anyway.

Only when we know that there are different economic theories will we be able to tell those in power that they are wrong to tell us that ‘there is no alternative’ (TINA), as Margaret Thatcher once infamously put it in defence of her controversial policies.

4. Never trust an economist

It is one thing not to foresee the financial crisis; it’s another not to have changed anything since

Most economists were caught completely by surprise by the 2008 global financial crisis. Not only that, they have not been able to come up with decent solutions to the ongoing aftermaths of that crisis.

Given all this, economics seems to suffer from a serious case of megalomania.

The financial crisis has been a brutal reminder that we cannot leave our economy to professional economists and other ‘technocrats’. We should all get involved in its management – as active economic citizens.

5. We have to reclaim economics for the people

It’s too important to be left to the experts alone

You should be willing to challenge professional economists (and, yes, that includes me). They do not have a monopoly over the truth, even when it comes to economic matters.

Like many other things in life – learning to ride a bicycle, learning a new language, or learning to use your new tablet computer – being an active economic citizen gets easier over time, once you overcome the initial difficulties and keep practicing it.

Unless you are willing and able to challenge the professionals, challenge the experts, what’s the point of having a democracy?

There is no excuse for complacency. If you organize and demand reforms then a lot of amazing things happen, but it won’t come easy – we have to fight for it.

And there it is - all you need to know when watching the talking head bloviation and justification day after day

I forget who wrote this.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:57 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:Question:
Aren't a nice suit, a nice bottle of wine, and a fantastic dinner today much much better than a nice toga, a jug of fine wine and a hearty meal from 1000's of years ago?


I don't think so, you may disagree and that's ok, but each of those things serves the exact same purpose. "nicer" is a subjective thing, eh? The point is, you can clothe yourself, get a little drunk and eat well.

mookiemcgee wrote: So net/net we are better off than we were even if things were the same "price". Just trying to make an argument that while $1 might not be worth what it was 100 years ago, someone 100 years ago would gladly spends all their fortune (if they had one) on a single iphone, google search, ticket to a modern movie? I dunno if I'm getting my point across or if this is just too abstract of an argument but I appreciate you making me thing with these posts, your analogies are enlightening.


Oh, we are much, much better off than we ever have been in the history of mankind. I don't think any of us would have rather been born 10b.c. rather than right now in history. But your examples of iphone, computers, movie tickets, they had entertainment back in the day. Crude in our standards of today, but serving the same effect, no? There was information, philosophers, libraries, communication, much more crude, but serving the same basic purpose of our things today. And all that without industrialization.


A better analogy that might help is this. As I said, Nixon slammed the gold window in 1972. Let's just make a general comparison of today and 1970 with the reminder that nothing has increased in real cost, only in fiat currency. Ok?

In 1970 and average family, Husband, Wife, two kids. The Husband went to work, the wife stayed home and took care of the kids. Quaint, old fashioned, yes, but those were the times. Husband made enough with his salary to pay the mortgage, feed the family, send the kids to school, medical care, a little bit of savings and an occasional night out with the wife for a nice dinner and maybe some dancing or something. That was the average way it was for the most part, the American Dream.

Fast forward to today. Same family, Husband works, but so does the Wife. The kids come home from school and are home alone for a certain amount of time everyday getting into all kinds of things, some of those things no so positive you could say being there is less or even no parental supervision. The family lives paycheck to paycheck, the credit cards are maxed but they got a couple of TVs and smart phones, don't they? The family is always one disaster away from financial ruin. If the roof needs to be replaced, they can't pay for it because they have no savings. If the car breaks down they can't afford to fix and God forbid any of them get sick.

Both families still need the same basic things, a roof over their heads, food in their belly and a little bit of fun every now and again, like all humans need. Except the 1970 family could do it on one paycheck, today's family needs both parents working and it's still not enough. Both families are buying the same things basically. Sure, today's family has a smart phone but you can't eat your smart phone, your smart phone isn't going to fix the car, pay the mortgage and so on.

That's the effect of a currency that has lost value to the point where one generation is really no better off objectively than the previous one. We like to think because we got LED tvs, smart phones and computers we are better off, but are we?

What is the most precious thing an individual has? More precious than anything else in the world?

Time.

None of us have enough of it. More time to do things that make you happy. More time to spend with those you love. How many people lay on their death bed and think "I wish I'd spent more time at work"? No one. On your death bed you'll pray to God to give you just one more day, one more hour, just to look into your child's eye one last time, one last smile to give to your loved ones, one more hug and a kiss for your partner.

that's what devaluing the currency does to people. It steals the most precious thing any of can ever have. Your time. And you can't replace your time. By devaluing the currency you are forced to work longer, devote more time just to acquire the things you need to just simply live.

That's the real point isn't it?
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby armati on Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:00 pm

Patches,

I believe ur missing my point about there is always enuff gold, its price that matters.

Anything will work as currency as we have seen thru out history, grains of wheat, feathers,seashells,tally sticks, gold and silver, today we use digits created electronically, anything will work.

It merely needs to be agreed upon, for 5000+ years people have agreed upon gold.

If its just a simple commodity, why does Russia,China and others buy so much to hold as monetary reserves? Why does the U.S. hold 8000 tons?

An austrian will tell you...because gold is money, has been for more than 5000 years.
And, it has held its purchasing power all that time.

Its not gold that increases or decreases in value...its the currencies that do.

Course there are those that call it a barbarous relic too.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:03 pm

Har, this is for you Armati, and everyone else to put it into perspective


There is a job, three people apply for the job. One is a mathematician, the second is a statistician, and the third an economist.

The boss gives interviews to each person and asks each of them the same question- "Does two plus two equal four?"
The mathematician answers that question with "Yes,two plus two equals four, always"'
The statistician answers that question with "Usually, on average two plus two equals four, most of the time".
The economist is asked that question and he closes the door, draws the shades, looks around first, leans in toward the boss and says in a hushed tone-
"What do you want two plus two to equal?"


And that about sums up what an economist is.....
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:13 pm

armati wrote:Patches,

I believe ur missing my point about there is always enuff gold, its price that matters.

Anything will work as currency as we have seen thru out history, grains of wheat, feathers,seashells,tally sticks, gold and silver, today we use digits created electronically, anything will work.

It merely needs to be agreed upon, for 5000+ years people have agreed upon gold.

If its just a simple commodity, why does Russia,China and others buy so much to hold as monetary reserves? Why does the U.S. hold 8000 tons?

An austrian will tell you...because gold is money, has been for more than 5000 years.
And, it has held its purchasing power all that time.

Its not gold that increases or decreases in value...its the currencies that do.

Course there are those that call it a barbarous relic too.


Andmy point is that no, there is not always enough gold. It is one of the most rare substances on the planet, hence why it is so valuable. Every ounce of gold ever pulled from the Earth by man since the beginning of time if would only make a cube only 67 feet per side. That's it. There wouldn't even be enough gold to fill an Olympic sized swimming pool. There is now three times more gold above ground (mined) than is left underground.
12% of that gold we have mined is used in the industrial sector. That gold often ends up in the landfill, which is nice because in a few thousand years some human beings can dig it back up out of the ground again, which is the nice thing about gold. But tell me, Armati, if you took all the gold in the world and divided it up so that every single human being on the planet got the exact same amount, how much would that amount be do you think?
And,with that amount of gold, how much stuff could each person actually buy with it?

You see, there isn't enough gold. Not for everyone. And since you are going to design a monetary system using it, that ideally everyone can use, gold ain't gonna cut it.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby armati on Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:14 pm

Just read ur last post, Post by patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:57 pm,
ur right about devaluation of our currency, it loses 50% purchasing power every 35 years.
Excluding electronics. lol
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:21 pm

Oh,anddon't get me wrong, armati, one of the wisest things a person can do is have some physical gold. It's definitely a hedge against inflation and it will always be valuable. It's a barbaric relic only to those who don't appreciate how valuable gold is. Every person who is reading this should take a moment to acquire at least a little bit of gold to hold onto. That's just a wise thing to do.

But I don't know if a gold based currency is the answer. It might be. It might not be. I just don't know for sure and I don't think I can be convinced that it is. There are a lot of other monetary systems that can, have a might be better fits with today's world.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby armati on Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:24 pm

Well, there are lots of ways to look at it.

Ive been discussing it with investors economists and professors etc for years now.

My conclusion is discussion goes round and round.

I will refer you to Jim Rickards "currency wars" its a book he wrote 2 more in the series.
He dealt with the 2008 meltdown and negotiated the release of the american hostages from Iran, he has letters after his name, last class in university to study gold.


If he cant convince you there is always enuff gold I sure cant.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby armati on Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:27 pm

You must be typing the same time I am, I dont know if a gold backed currency is the answer either, my point was just that there is always enuff gold for it.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby HitRed on Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:53 pm

Image

This is just a small example of how much money is in the world. Microsoft cofounder Paul Allen built this. The value of just his stock is mind blowing. And his stock makes dividends, more stock and more money. Money is almost infinite.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby Lootifer on Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:36 am

patches70 wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:Question:
Aren't a nice suit, a nice bottle of wine, and a fantastic dinner today much much better than a nice toga, a jug of fine wine and a hearty meal from 1000's of years ago?


I don't think so, you may disagree and that's ok, but each of those things serves the exact same purpose. "nicer" is a subjective thing, eh? The point is, you can clothe yourself, get a little drunk and eat well.

mookiemcgee wrote: So net/net we are better off than we were even if things were the same "price". Just trying to make an argument that while $1 might not be worth what it was 100 years ago, someone 100 years ago would gladly spends all their fortune (if they had one) on a single iphone, google search, ticket to a modern movie? I dunno if I'm getting my point across or if this is just too abstract of an argument but I appreciate you making me thing with these posts, your analogies are enlightening.


Oh, we are much, much better off than we ever have been in the history of mankind. I don't think any of us would have rather been born 10b.c. rather than right now in history. But your examples of iphone, computers, movie tickets, they had entertainment back in the day. Crude in our standards of today, but serving the same effect, no? There was information, philosophers, libraries, communication, much more crude, but serving the same basic purpose of our things today. And all that without industrialization.


A better analogy that might help is this. As I said, Nixon slammed the gold window in 1972. Let's just make a general comparison of today and 1970 with the reminder that nothing has increased in real cost, only in fiat currency. Ok?

In 1970 and average family, Husband, Wife, two kids. The Husband went to work, the wife stayed home and took care of the kids. Quaint, old fashioned, yes, but those were the times. Husband made enough with his salary to pay the mortgage, feed the family, send the kids to school, medical care, a little bit of savings and an occasional night out with the wife for a nice dinner and maybe some dancing or something. That was the average way it was for the most part, the American Dream.

Fast forward to today. Same family, Husband works, but so does the Wife. The kids come home from school and are home alone for a certain amount of time everyday getting into all kinds of things, some of those things no so positive you could say being there is less or even no parental supervision. The family lives paycheck to paycheck, the credit cards are maxed but they got a couple of TVs and smart phones, don't they? The family is always one disaster away from financial ruin. If the roof needs to be replaced, they can't pay for it because they have no savings. If the car breaks down they can't afford to fix and God forbid any of them get sick.

Both families still need the same basic things, a roof over their heads, food in their belly and a little bit of fun every now and again, like all humans need. Except the 1970 family could do it on one paycheck, today's family needs both parents working and it's still not enough. Both families are buying the same things basically. Sure, today's family has a smart phone but you can't eat your smart phone, your smart phone isn't going to fix the car, pay the mortgage and so on.

That's the effect of a currency that has lost value to the point where one generation is really no better off objectively than the previous one. We like to think because we got LED tvs, smart phones and computers we are better off, but are we?

What is the most precious thing an individual has? More precious than anything else in the world?

Time.

None of us have enough of it. More time to do things that make you happy. More time to spend with those you love. How many people lay on their death bed and think "I wish I'd spent more time at work"? No one. On your death bed you'll pray to God to give you just one more day, one more hour, just to look into your child's eye one last time, one last smile to give to your loved ones, one more hug and a kiss for your partner.

that's what devaluing the currency does to people. It steals the most precious thing any of can ever have. Your time. And you can't replace your time. By devaluing the currency you are forced to work longer, devote more time just to acquire the things you need to just simply live.

That's the real point isn't it?


I don't see the causal link to introduction of a fiat currency and lack of purchasing power of families, can you elaborate?

(not saying you are wrong, but I don't want to read all the context)
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby armati on Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:17 am

Lootifer patches hasnt answered so I'll try.
Patches can add/ subtract if he sees fit.

"Fiat" simply means by government decree.

To answer your question.

Its supply and demand, the more of any product available the lower the price.
A currency is no different.
Governments print print print so the purchasing power drops over time.

Notice candy bars getting smaller, fewer chips in a bag, chocolate not as good as it was when you were a kid.
The reduction of size or quality is considered inflation.(its actually the result of inflation but thats kinda academic)
That "inflation" is the loss of purchasing power or devaluation of the currency.

Of course there are lots of ways governments cover this devaluation up and they have plenty of options as to what to blame it on.
Calling a devaluation inflation is just one of many ways they keep people blind.

There has never been an unbacked paper currency(not backed by gold) that has not fallen to its intrinsic value....which is zero.

The average rate of decline is 50% every 35 years.

Families that retain there wealth over centuries understand this, they purchase land,fine art and gold as the core of their portfolio to counteract it.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby mookiemcgee on Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:33 pm

patches70 wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:Question:
Aren't a nice suit, a nice bottle of wine, and a fantastic dinner today much much better than a nice toga, a jug of fine wine and a hearty meal from 1000's of years ago?


I don't think so, you may disagree and that's ok, but each of those things serves the exact same purpose. "nicer" is a subjective thing, eh? The point is, you can clothe yourself, get a little drunk and eat well.



Well I absolutely agree that they serve the same purpose, I do disagree about the quality level and I personally don't really think that is subjective. Wine 2000 years ago was just bad, sure it got you drunk just as well but it was painful and gross to drink. Wine is just straight up better and more enjoyable (and will get you drunk much more effectively) than what they drank back then!
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby patches70 on Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:49 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:
Well I absolutely agree that they serve the same purpose, I do disagree about the quality level and I personally don't really think that is subjective. Wine 2000 years ago was just bad, sure it got you drunk just as well but it was painful and gross to drink. Wine is just straight up better and more enjoyable (and will get you drunk much more effectively) than what they drank back then!


Oh, I'm not entirely convinced about that. Wine, beer ale in olden times was quite different than it is today. Those types of drinks are probably the only reason human beings survived to even make it to today. We learned to distill alcohol and it was one of the most important inventions ever, because before that you'd have to drink from a stream, a lake, a stagnated pool of cess water if you had to, and that could and would get you sick and all too often you'd die.
sure, the alcohol tasted a lot different, by your standards "bad" but people didn't drink those things with the intention of having fun, they drank it because it was the only thing safe to drink. Their alcohol was much more hearty, nutritious than our stuff today which is now relegated to a luxury product for the most part. We are more tech advanced than our ancestors, but we sometimes forget they were just as smart as we are today, they had the same brains we have. It just takes a long time since discoveries are built upon prior discoveries. We've reached a point where our sum total of knowledge is just vast compared to our forebearers, but don't let that make you think we are better or smarter than they were. We aren't.

But good discussion none the less! We need not agree.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby patches70 on Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:55 pm

Lootifer wrote:I don't see the causal link to introduction of a fiat currency and lack of purchasing power of families, can you elaborate?

(not saying you are wrong, but I don't want to read all the context)


yes I can do that for you. Sorry for taking so long, some of us gotta work.

Anyway, to understand why fiat currencies directly affect purchasing power of families (adversely) you have to accept a couple of facts first.

First fact, everything is cheaper now than ever before in human history. This may seem counter intuitive when you see the prices of things going up and up and up, but I don't need you to accept this fact on faith, I'll prove it to you.
Everything is cheaper now than ever before if you price it in anything other than currency. I like to use gold as the commodity because we know the exact price of gold in any given year, hell any given day, for the past 100 or 200 years or even longer. So it's great to use in this proof. But you don't have to use gold to do this proof, you can use any commodity and you'll get the same results. And you don't need an economics degree, all you need to do is basic math.

So, let's take the price of gold in 1950. It was $40 an ounce. Now, let's compare it to something from 1950 to find the real price based in gold. Let's take a car, because we still have cars today and we have to compare it to something that we still use. In 1950 the average price of a car was $1500. You could buy more expensive cars or even cheaper cars, but the average price of a new car in 1950 was $1500. using gold it would take you 38 ounces of gold to buy a car. If you converted 38 ounces of gold in 1950 to dollars you'd have $1520, enough to buy an average brand new car.

Now, take that exact same 38 ounces of gold today and convert it into dollars. Today, this very day, an ounce of gold will get you $1240. If you converted 38 ounces of gold today into dollars you'd have $47,000. that's more than enough to buy an average car, wouldn't you say? Therefore, when priced in gold, the price of a new car hasn't increased, but it's gotten cheaper, The average price of a car today is about $33,000. Where as in 1950 you'd only have $10 left over after buying your car, today you'd have $14,000. You wouldn't need to convert the entire 38 ounces of gold, would you? Therefore, beyond any shadow of a doubt, cars are cheaper today than in 1950 when priced in gold because it takes even less gold to buy a car than it did in 1950.

But it isn't just gold that the car is cheaper, take any commodity. It could be coal, grain, silver, corn, tomatoes, virtually anything that has value, and do the same thing as above. You'd have to find out the price of your medium you are using to compare real prices at one point in the past and compare the same commodity with the same thing you are pricing today in today's prices and you'll find in virtually every single case it takes less of that commodity to buy whatever product you are checking than it did in the past.

Now this should make sense because we have mass production, advanced farming techniques, mass transportation, vast energy supplies. So on and so forth, so of course everything is cheaper today than in the past, especially when you compare to the preindustrial age where everything was built by artisans, master craftsmen who built one thing at a time. We have factories that can pump out 10,000 cars a week. We have farms that can produce millions of tons of food in a season. In the middle ages, unless you were rich, you couldn't afford to buy food, your ass had to grow your own. Forget about other things like tapestries, furniture, you wouldn't be able to buy those things because they'd have been incredibly expensive and time consuming to build, pre industrial age. So it makes sense everything is cheaper now when based on [i]real[/] qealth.

So, if you've done your own homework, checked it out for yourself and you accept that things are actually cheaper than ever before when based on anything other than currency, we can move on to the next fact you need to accept to understand why today's average family has to work so much harder than the average family in 1970 had to for basically the same things.
You have to accept that the rising prices are somehow related directly to the currency, because when measured in any other medium everything is cheaper, and I mean everything, houses, cars, airplanes, ships, food, boats, drink, everything. But we don't think about this, we don't realize because we aren't paid in gold, we are paid in currency, so we don't see how cheap everything has gotten, do we?


The second fact you have to accept is that inflation is not the rise in prices. How can it be? We just proved that everything is cheaper than ever before, haven't we? So if everything is cheaper than ever before in all human history, then what is inflation? If you are of the Austrian school then you already know what inflation is, it's the expansion of the money supply. Inflation is purely a currency problem. Inflation is the most insidious tax of all because it robs you of your purchasing power over time, it robs you of your hard earned sweat and labors. Your labors of yesterday are worth less today.

Now why is this important and what does it have to do with fiat currency? I'll show you-

Image'

That vertical line you see between 1950 and 2000 is Nixon slamming the gold window, BTW and the US going full fiat currency.

Ok, we have to acknowledge that inflation has something to do with the currency for the most part. Pre 1972 the US was on the gold standard until FDR and a quasi gold standard from FDR to Nixon. Commodity based currencies, which I've said before, are far more stable than fiat currencies, and the graph shows this. Inflation did not have exponential growth during the time the US dollar was commodity based (which is what a gold standard monetary system is, a commodity based currency). There were small spikes in inflation and that's caused by scarcity which can affect inflation but not anywhere near the levels that expanding the money base causes inflation.

Pre 1972 the money based expanded very slowly, the only way to expand it was to dig more gold an silver out of the ground and that takes time. new money is introduced into the market slowly. This controls inflation because of obvious reasons, money is scarce, so it is more valuable. That's why gasoline was only 18 cents in 1950, we had a completely different monetary system than we have today, namely not a fiat currency.
With the advent of fiat currency large amounts of currency and credit are dumped into the market very quickly which lowers the value of the currency and we experience inflation. If inflation gets too high you have to remove currency and credit from the market thus raising the value of the currency, deflation.

You can't do this with a commodity based monetary system, at least if you are following the rules of the system. It should be obvious now why the 1970 family didn't have to work as hard as today's family, the 1970's family's work was more valuable because that work was priced in a commodity backed currency. Our work today is priced in a fiat currency which lowers in value every time a new dollar is introduced into the market.

Now this should answer your question and you are welcome to research this on your own to confirm what I am saying, I encourage you to do so because it's a rabbit hole that will open up a whole new way of thinking about the world.

But until then, let me let you in on something that's gonna make you mad, and illustrate one of the bad consequences of fiat money. You see, the market doesn't react instantly. When you introduce new money into the market it takes some time for the market to adjust and and reflect the lesser value of all the money in the market as a consequence of the new money added. What is going to make you mad about this is that the way new money is introduced and who benefits from it. You see, as Armati said I think, new money most often comes in the form of fractional reserve lending. When a bank loans money it doesn't have that money on hand, it literally creates that money out of thin air and it's legal. A bank in the US only needs to hold 10% reserves for all the money they lend out. Now when the bank creates this money the market hasn't seen this yet and so it hasn't been priced in yet. Thus, whomever it was that got the loan gets the full value of that new currency and buys things at a rate that is less than after the market adjusts to the new quantity of currency. Poor people aren't getting loans, are they? Yet, it is the little money poor people have that get hurt the most when the market prices in this new money and the poor people all of a sudden have less purchasing power than that meagerly had before. This is the so called "wealth disparity" we all hear so much about. It is the rich who take out loans and buy up stuff before that new currency suffers from inflation.

It's just how the system works, and it's a fine system is your goal is exponential growth, but we already know from basic math classes that exponential growth of anything is unsustainable, and this includes fiat currency.

What's worse is the Fed has a target inflation rate of 2% a year, and as we already know when you have some like "x% growth over a given period of time = exponential growth". Thus, you see the effects on the above graph. And that's just the Fed's target rate for the macro economy, when you look at specific industries you'll find more disturbing inflation. Armati is correct, 2% growth a year equals a doubling of the price every 35 years. But if you look at the healthcare field you'll find 6% inflation, which doubles the cost of healthcare every twelve years when you use the rule of 72 which is a quick way to calculate how quickly exponential growth doubles what ever it is that is growing.
College tuition exploded when the US Government dump $1 trillion into the student loan market in an effort to get everyone to go to college. That's what happens when you dump a whole shitload of credit into a relatively static market. You can pump a trillion dollars into something a lot quicker than you can build colleges and train professors.
Housing prices exploded before the crash in 2008 and that was because large amounts of money were being diverted into speculative buying of properties which raised the price of houses which further induced more speculative investment. Those mortgages were bundled as securities and sold on the open market which further inflated the price of homes until the exponential growth, which was whopping because it crashed hard by 2008. Historically homes rose in price very slowly, but in about a decade and a half of exponential asset values was unsustainable and imploded with dramatic effect.

And all the while average people who don't know how to take advantage of the fiat system suffered the most. Homes prices rising priced average people out of the market, made rents and mortgages rise and who was it that made the most money from it all? The investment banks who were pumping cheap money into the industry.

The list goes on and on, fiat currency systems will always be used by the most elite to better their own position because not only do they know the system so well, they run it. That's why it's so important to try and learn about how the currency system works so that you can benefit from it, and anyone can given the right knowledge, time resources and will.

The currency system we use is the medium in which everything is priced, including your labor, your assets, your debts. It is the very foundation upon which everything else we call "society" is built upon. Not understanding the system is like not understanding the very ground you walk on. It's that important to at least know about. But people don't think about, politicians don't talk about it and we all roll right along blissfully unaware for the most part to the point a majority of people just don't understand why they can't make ends meet. It's just the system. It is what it is and not understanding it just opens one up to be steamrolled by it.

Sorry for the long post, but if you made it this far, hopefully it was enlightening to some degree.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby notyou2 on Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:53 pm

Glad my post about loss of personal freedoms in the US has sparked such a lively debate on currencies and inflation.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby Neoteny on Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:25 pm

Kapital über alles.
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Re: America The Land of the Free

Postby armati on Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:00 pm

Currency, the banking system, federal reserve are actually extremely important topics that 99% of people find boring as heck.

You would think more people would be interested, currency is usually 50% of any business transaction.

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

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