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[OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia - Town Scarred as Mafia Wins!

Housing completed games. Come take a walk through a history of suspicion!

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MVP

Poll ended at Tue Jun 27, 2017 2:48 am

skittles
0
No votes
pikanchion
3
21%
Masket
6
43%
Hotshot
0
No votes
Ragian
1
7%
Kwanton
3
21%
Dakky
1
7%
Samlen
0
No votes
Benga
0
No votes
Djfireside
0
No votes
Flores
0
No votes
Skoffin
0
No votes
Chu
0
No votes
Madmitch
0
No votes
Mandy
0
No votes
DDS
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 14

Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby mandalorian2298 on Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:56 am

Skoffin wrote: Mandy, out of interest, how come you have never said anything regarding flores? I ask because you took umbrage at my activity levels and felt that a suitable reason to lynch me, but that notion hasn't crossed your mind with flores- who at this point should be more suspicious than me considering she accused me of doing something that she had just been doing herself, and has now gone to doing that exact thing again. That thing that is good enough to lynch me but not her. What gives? Multiple people in this game had gone inactive yet a few people seem to be singling me out. Soz but I don't get it.


A fair question. Firstly (and obviously) due to my ginormus ego I am less suspicious of the people who are thinking the same way.

Secondly, I agree that Flores should post something sometime soon, but when she did post she was actively scum-hunting as opposed to playing defensively. This makes me more suspicious of player's dedication to playing Mafia then about player's scuminess.

Thirdly, (and similar to the first one) she went silent at the time before Nag posted the deadline post. My own will to play decreased at that time since I realized that a lynch requires 8 votes and there are less then 8 players actively and purposefully playing at the time (including you, my then lynch-target, whom I didn't think I can convince to vote herself :) )

In summation, I agree with you. Flores should post something or she's on the naughty list.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby Samlen on Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:23 pm

Question: If we mislynch myself or another townie, what info do we gain? It's quite apparent that a lot of people want to lynch for the sake of lynching, and when a dead townie pops up from today's lynch, everyone voting them can simply say something like 'we needed to lynch and they were the most suspicious'. With no solid info today there's not much else that can be inferred from a lynch today. Scum could've all had voted said person being lynched or none at all.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby Fircoal on Thu Apr 27, 2017 2:44 pm

Samlen wrote:Question: If we mislynch myself or another townie, what info do we gain? It's quite apparent that a lot of people want to lynch for the sake of lynching, and when a dead townie pops up from today's lynch, everyone voting them can simply say something like 'we needed to lynch and they were the most suspicious'. With no solid info today there's not much else that can be inferred from a lynch today. Scum could've all had voted said person being lynched or none at all.


In the process of the lynch we're able to figure out who is pushing for what and why they're doing so. Sure everyone can say that but at some point it's apparent that people are saying it just to say it. As much as a lynch could be abstracted to just this, pretty much every single time the reality is much more complex and naused than what it could be. People play imperfectly, by going for lynches we're allowing people to show those imperfections and give off hints towards their allignment and their goals.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby benga on Thu Apr 27, 2017 2:44 pm

Samlen wrote:Question: If we mislynch myself or another townie, what info do we gain? It's quite apparent that a lot of people want to lynch for the sake of lynching, and when a dead townie pops up from today's lynch, everyone voting them can simply say something like 'we needed to lynch and they were the most suspicious'. With no solid info today there's not much else that can be inferred from a lynch today. Scum could've all had voted said person being lynched or none at all.


to get you off your lazy butt and proves us wrong
also we can see who did what and when
there are ways, sitting idle is not the one to take now

there are too many idling and you are not interested either to poke around and get some reaction
in fact you are by voting no lynch doing what scum needs the most
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby mandalorian2298 on Thu Apr 27, 2017 2:53 pm

Samlen wrote:Question: If we mislynch myself or another townie, what info do we gain? It's quite apparent that a lot of people want to lynch for the sake of lynching, and when a dead townie pops up from today's lynch, everyone voting them can simply say something like 'we needed to lynch and they were the most suspicious'. With no solid info today there's not much else that can be inferred from a lynch today. Scum could've all had voted said person being lynched or none at all.


For any further questions about the futility of Day 1 killing I humbly direct you to our Day Vig. ;)
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby Djfireside on Thu Apr 27, 2017 4:21 pm

mandalorian2298 wrote:
Samlen wrote:Question: If we mislynch myself or another townie, what info do we gain? It's quite apparent that a lot of people want to lynch for the sake of lynching, and when a dead townie pops up from today's lynch, everyone voting them can simply say something like 'we needed to lynch and they were the most suspicious'. With no solid info today there's not much else that can be inferred from a lynch today. Scum could've all had voted said person being lynched or none at all.


For any further questions about the futility of Day 1 killing I humbly direct you to our Day Vig. ;)


I was going to give you crap about the BW push on Sam but you make a good point and put me along on it. Sadly for the most part I treat D1 much like Sam's point however I will have to give it to you, there is definitely a positive in seeking out anything and giving it a shot especially to see how people react when they are under pressure. Best way to figure someone out is to put them to the fire sometimes.

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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby HotShot53 on Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:05 pm

nagerous wrote:2 week deadline , get active peeps!


Mod question - what happens if we reach the deadline? Will it be a no-lynch, or will the person with the most votes at that time get lynched?
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby Samlen on Thu Apr 27, 2017 10:12 pm

Ok next question. If we assume that I am town and that this ends in my lynch, what do the current votes tell us? Cause it doesn't seem like much. On the off chance you are right and we can definitely find a scum by this bandwagon, my gut says dj or mayyyyybe fircoal. In other news, i'm at 4/8 so I'll claim if a couple more votes find their way towards me.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby mandalorian2298 on Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:16 pm

Samlen wrote:Ok next question. If we assume that I am town and that this ends in my lynch, what do the current votes tell us? Cause it doesn't seem like much. On the off chance you are right and we can definitely find a scum by this bandwagon, my gut says dj or mayyyyybe fircoal. In other news, i'm at 4/8 so I'll claim if a couple more votes find their way towards me.


So you are basically asking what EXACTLY should a scummster do in order to reveal that he is scum? Like a number of exact steps that scum should take so that we can lynch him? That we have all agreed on during that big pre-game meeting?
:lol: :lol: :lol:

Well fine, I'll give you one: The scumster should claim either a no-name character or someone from the sequals.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby Samlen on Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:42 pm

? I'm not asking what a scum should do to reveal that they are scum, I'm asking what info we are gaining from this lynch. I'm asking, on the assumption that this lynch goes through all the way, who would you determine as scum based off of whether I flip town or scum. Or are you going to need all 8 votes to figure that out?
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby benga on Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:06 am

Samlen wrote:? I'm not asking what a scum should do to reveal that they are scum, I'm asking what info we are gaining from this lynch. I'm asking, on the assumption that this lynch goes through all the way, who would you determine as scum based off of whether I flip town or scum. Or are you going to need all 8 votes to figure that out?


Every interaction gives us something. Your lynch is dependand of what you give us. At least we will have something to dig up on. There isn't a formula to go by.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby Skittles! on Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:11 am

You're really not defending yourself very well Sam. I was ready to defend you about the No Lynch on d1 thing but from my current position, you are just digging yourself a bigger hole. Your insistence on saying "if I turn up town or scum" really doesn't leave me with much confidence in you, and you are already squirming.

What do we get out of lynching you? What do we get out of lynching anyone? People under pressure slip, and with the chance of getting a scum, and then information from the night stage, town can get a lot of valuable info to move further in the game.

I'm going to FOS you right now, just because I don't want you speed lynched and I want to see what other discussions can stem from this.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby Samlen on Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:43 am

Suppose I'm a little frustrated. There's not much else I can do than ask questions. I still think a lynch today is much more likely to hurt than help so I'm trying to see if I can get people to question it.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby DirtyDishSoap on Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:35 am

Don't feel like Sam's case was warranted anymore than mine was. Soon as mine died off it was "All aboard to try and lynch the other guy with the same stance". I don't think his arguments are really that half assed unless he wants to run a repeat of what happened several pages ago. What's there left to argue? I don't really understand it.

We already shot a scumster today, theoretically, we stand to mislynch a town.

Could we also just let the topic of no lynch vs lynch just die off? If y'all really want to argue the logistics behind it, there's a discussion made for it specifically.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby benga on Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:25 am

Care to explain why is it so easy to lynch in cult game but not is standard game.
Juse because of less chance to hit power role?
In your investigation about day 1 lynch, even with 70% town lynch, town still won 46% of games.
How does this make it bad for town?
We are running here in circles.
Does sam has anything better to offer so we can move and look elsewhere?
Or is he just wasting time and helping scum?
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby madmitch on Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:32 am

VOTE SAM You want to be lynched or have someone lynched so be it. [-X
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby DirtyDishSoap on Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:51 am

benga wrote:1. Care to explain why is it so easy to lynch in cult game but not is standard game.
Juse because of less chance to hit power role?

2. In your investigation about day 1 lynch, even with 70% town lynch, town still won 46% of games.
How does this make it bad for town?

3. We are running here in circles.
Does sam has anything better to offer so we can move and look elsewhere?
Or is he just wasting time and helping scum?

1. Sure, 8 player, it's cult, an off chance to end the game on Day 1, a chance of everyone aside from the Queen being vanilla, it makes sense to me to scum hunt/lynch on days 1. I've made my stance clear in that game, as I've made my stance clear in this and BNI.
Here it's a larger game, there are more roles, more scum, the math being rather high on mis-lynching (In some of those past games, town has lynched a cop or a vig), I prefer to err on the side of caution in larger games.

2. Easy. Scum win more on average and are statistically proven to be less likely to be lynched on Days 1. Whether it's people being phenomenal scum players or people playing badly as town, I have no idea, I didn't read every game, word for word, line for line, I merely pulled out who was lynched, alignment, and which side had won.

The statistics are still incomplete and I still have to comb through the entire archive to find Day 1 no lynches (I'm going with 25 instead of 20, think it provided more information imo). Incredibly hard to do because as I have mentioned, 2015 to present day, there has not been a single game, aside from BNI currently, where there has not been a day 1 lynch. How far I have to back log to find games where there has been a Day 1 No Lynch, no idea, but I'll keep trying to give everyone a better picture.
Let's say I do find these 25 games on CC where there has been no lynch on Days 1, and let's say it clearly shows a higher win rate for town over scum, would you concede the argument or would you still stand by what you say? Would you at least acknowledge that a No Lynch on Days 1 is viable at that point or would you still think that it hurts town way too much?

3. Agreed, it's why I wanted this same discussion we're having right now moved into another forum where it's free from scrutiny, whereas in game, you could be lynched for advocating a stance.
Sam's unlikely to provide any other information unless he's willing to echo what I had said in the past. He was targeted for advocating the same stance at me but what was viewed as a "safer time" which is a dumb fuckin thing to pursue to begin with. I'm not defending the guy because he should be able to do it himself, but everyone is badgering him for practically the same thing I advocated earlier.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby mandalorian2298 on Fri Apr 28, 2017 6:06 am

madmitch wrote:VOTE SAM You want to be lynched or have someone lynched so be it. [-X


1) unvote before voting

2) QUICK OFF TOPIC - Could you please declare your eligibility for the Championship thingy? :)
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby nagerous on Fri Apr 28, 2017 6:34 am

HotShot53 wrote:
nagerous wrote:2 week deadline , get active peeps!


Mod question - what happens if we reach the deadline? Will it be a no-lynch, or will the person with the most votes at that time get lynched?


There will be no lynch if there is no majority at the deadline.

I will provide a vote count shortly - little bit tied up at work right now
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby Minister Masket on Fri Apr 28, 2017 6:41 am

I'm not especially taken in by this Samlen bandwagon, especially as it could've easily happened to DDS instead. I kinda get the latest votes more though because they seem like genuine pushes for information.

Samlen wrote:Ok next question. If we assume that I am town and that this ends in my lynch, what do the current votes tell us? Cause it doesn't seem like much. On the off chance you are right and we can definitely find a scum by this bandwagon, my gut says dj or mayyyyybe fircoal. In other news, i'm at 4/8 so I'll claim if a couple more votes find their way towards me.


Any chance you can reveal why your gut feelings point to DJ and Fircoal?
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby mandalorian2298 on Fri Apr 28, 2017 6:54 am

nagerous wrote:
HotShot53 wrote:
nagerous wrote:2 week deadline , get active peeps!


Mod question - what happens if we reach the deadline? Will it be a no-lynch, or will the person with the most votes at that time get lynched?


There will be no lynch if there is no majority at the deadline.

I will provide a vote count shortly - little bit tied up at work right now


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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby madmitch on Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:32 am

sorry. unvote vote sam @ Mandy I DON'T KNOW ,but I would like to play, have lots of time,
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby nagerous on Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:32 am

Vote Count :

    Tim (2) dakky, MM
    Skoff (1) Flores
    Kwan (1) Hotshot
    DDS (1) Kwan
    No lunch (1) Samlen
    Firacle (2) Tim, skittles
    Sam (5) Fircoal, benga, Mandy, DJ, Mitch

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch!
Last edited by nagerous on Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby nagerous on Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:34 am

madmitch wrote:sorry. unvote vote sam @ Mandy I DON'T KNOW ,but I would like to play, have lots of time,


Someone with lots of time is needed , please post in the other thread to discuss further but you are currently the people's choice
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia Day 1-Elephant's Graveyard Mu

Postby Skittles! on Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:38 am

nagerous wrote:Vote Count :

    Tim (2) dakky, MM
    Skoff (1) Flores
    Kwan (1) Hotshot
    DDS (1) Kwan
    No lunch (1) Samlen
    Samlen (1) Fircoal
    Firacle (2) Tim, skittles
    Sam (4) benga, Mandy, DJ, Mitch

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch!

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