mrswdk wrote:betiko wrote:mrswdk wrote:I was reading a BBC article today about how Sarkozy is about to be hauled up in court for campaign finance fraud and Fillon is in trouble for making dodgy payments to his wife, and then towards the end there were some smug French guys saying 'yeah but Brexit and Trump won't be repeated here because we look after our workers better'.
Surging far right nationalist vote - TICK
Political establishment embroiled in high profile scandals - TICK
Complacent centrists telling themselves that their country is too smart to vote for a populist and that this will all go away - TICK
La Pen 4 Prez 2017 - TICK TICK TICK
You wish!
The only scenario that could work out for her is the one described by saxi. The far left making an alliance with the far left socialist candidate. Combined, they could move to the second round vs Marine Le Pen and then it would turn out to be a 50-50 election. The moderate right or the centrist would beat her by a landslide.
Yeah yeah, just like Brits obviously won't vote for Brexit and Americans will obviously elect Clinton instead of Trump.
The difference being that the Front National, the party that is ran by the Le Pen has been around since the late 70s and that we already know the drill. Marine is much more moderate than her father though, who used to make jokes about gas chambers and against the arabs publicly. He's a huge biggot, she is more of a biggot under cover. So yes, she can do much better than him. That s why I do give her a chance against an extreme left coalition. Against moderate candidates she doesn't stand a chance, plain and simple.
The brexit is due to a lot of people just wanting to make a point but not actually wanting what happened, and trump actually had less votes than hilary and only won because of the structure of the american system.
The french system is much more simple. Round 1, unless someone gets 50%+ votes, there is a round 2 with the two most voted candidates. Your vote counts the same no matter where you live.
