Independent Kurdistan

[GoranZ]

After the recent events seems like Independent Kurdistan is just around the corner. And not only Independent Kurdistan made up from territories of Iraq and Syria but with large chunk of Turkey... after all there are ~15 million Kurds(~20% of the population) living in Turkey atm.

Emergence of Independent Kurdistan Just a Matter of Time - Czech President

[Bernie Sanders]

After the recent events seems like Independent Kurdistan is just around the corner. And not only Independent Kurdistan made up from territories of Iraq and Syria but with large chunk of Turkey... after all there are ~15 million Kurds(~20% of the population) living in Turkey atm.

Emergence of Independent Kurdistan Just a Matter of Time - Czech President

...and Iran, right? Oh, wait a minute, they are allied with Russia.

[muy_thaiguy]

I don't think Iran is willing to give up the areas the Kurds are in, maybe not like the levels the Turks are, but probably against it.

[notyou2]

So let me get this straight.

A European nation invades an area and claims it. A different European nation invades an area near the first and claims that. The 2 European nations arbitrarily draw lines in the sand saying which nation controls which territory without any regard whatsoever for the boundaries that have been in the area for centuries.

The subjugated areas later throw off the yoke of repression after a long protracted battle with the invaders, yet now that they have the chance to restore historic borders and tribal lands, they decline to do so.

I am all for a united Kurdistan. They seem to be one voice of reason in a chaotic area.

[muy_thaiguy]

So let me get this straight.

A European nation invades an area and claims it. A different European nation invades an area near the first and claims that. The 2 European nations arbitrarily draw lines in the sand saying which nation controls which territory without any regard whatsoever for the boundaries that have been in the area for centuries.

The subjugated areas later throw off the yoke of repression after a long protracted battle with the invaders, yet now that they have the chance to restore historic borders and tribal lands, they decline to do so.

I am all for a united Kurdistan. They seem to be one voice of reason in a chaotic area.

The Iraqi and Syrian Kurds probably won't face much issue (Syria is in chaos and Iraq's government is struggling to expand control beyond a certain point). It's the ones in Iran and Turkey that are the main problems with a united Kurdistan. I know Turkey is militantly against it (and thus against losing a good chunk of territory to a new nation). Iran, not sure on the specifics, but if I remember right, they too are against their Kurds separating, if not militantly, but adamantly.

[waauw]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream as long as they aren't capable of claiming any land along the Mediterranean. Because otherwise they'll be surrounded by precisely those countries they want independence from or their friends. Notice how the Kurdish majority dissipates towards the seas. In prospect of future independence, the Kurds would also have to consider future trade routes. Their only possible chance without access to the sea would be Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. But how well would that hold under pressure from both Iran and Turkey, especially if the Russians were to continue siding with Iran.

A future Kurdistan is simply too fragile to have any decent prospects. After all, even a succesful revolution seems unlikely at best. Iran and Turkey have two of the strongest militaries in the region.

Click image to enlarge.

[GoranZ]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream as long as they aren't capable of claiming any land along the Mediterranean. Because otherwise they'll be surrounded by precisely those countries they want independence from or their friends. Notice how the Kurdish majority dissipates towards the seas. In prospect of future independence, the Kurds would also have to consider future trade routes. Their only possible chance without access to the sea would be Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. But how well would that hold under pressure from both Iran and Turkey, especially if the Russians were to continue siding with Iran.

A future Kurdistan is simply too fragile to have any decent prospects. After all, even a succesful revolution seems unlikely at best. Iran and Turkey have two of the strongest militaries in the region.

They can do it now in Syria/Iraq... after that they can work in Turkey, with 20% its doable. Iran is little-bit complicated since they are not even second by numbers.

[Bernie Sanders]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream as long as they aren't capable of claiming any land along the Mediterranean. Because otherwise they'll be surrounded by precisely those countries they want independence from or their friends. Notice how the Kurdish majority dissipates towards the seas. In prospect of future independence, the Kurds would also have to consider future trade routes. Their only possible chance without access to the sea would be Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. But how well would that hold under pressure from both Iran and Turkey, especially if the Russians were to continue siding with Iran.

A future Kurdistan is simply too fragile to have any decent prospects. After all, even a succesful revolution seems unlikely at best. Iran and Turkey have two of the strongest militaries in the region.

They can do it now in Syria/Iraq... after that they can work in Turkey, with 20% its doable. Iran is little-bit complicated since they are not even second by numbers.

C'mon GoranZ! Be honest, Iran is the only real country left in the Middle East that Russia can consider it's ally.

[GoranZ]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream as long as they aren't capable of claiming any land along the Mediterranean. Because otherwise they'll be surrounded by precisely those countries they want independence from or their friends. Notice how the Kurdish majority dissipates towards the seas. In prospect of future independence, the Kurds would also have to consider future trade routes. Their only possible chance without access to the sea would be Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. But how well would that hold under pressure from both Iran and Turkey, especially if the Russians were to continue siding with Iran.

A future Kurdistan is simply too fragile to have any decent prospects. After all, even a succesful revolution seems unlikely at best. Iran and Turkey have two of the strongest militaries in the region.

They can do it now in Syria/Iraq... after that they can work in Turkey, with 20% its doable. Iran is little-bit complicated since they are not even second by numbers.

C'mon GoranZ! Be honest, Iran is the only real country left in the Middle East that Russia can consider it's ally.

Haha Iran is not Russian ally, they only have common enemies and common friends. They collaborate for their mutual interests.

[Bernie Sanders]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream as long as they aren't capable of claiming any land along the Mediterranean. Because otherwise they'll be surrounded by precisely those countries they want independence from or their friends. Notice how the Kurdish majority dissipates towards the seas. In prospect of future independence, the Kurds would also have to consider future trade routes. Their only possible chance without access to the sea would be Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. But how well would that hold under pressure from both Iran and Turkey, especially if the Russians were to continue siding with Iran.

A future Kurdistan is simply too fragile to have any decent prospects. After all, even a succesful revolution seems unlikely at best. Iran and Turkey have two of the strongest militaries in the region.

They can do it now in Syria/Iraq... after that they can work in Turkey, with 20% its doable. Iran is little-bit complicated since they are not even second by numbers.

C'mon GoranZ! Be honest, Iran is the only real country left in the Middle East that Russia can consider it's ally.

Haha Iran is not Russian ally, they only have common enemies and common friends. They collaborate for their mutual interests.

Oh, thanks for straightening me up on the explanation of ally.

[mrswdk]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream

I doubt they really care about formal recognition when they are currently able to operate as a perfectly pleasant de facto state without interference.

[waauw]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream

I doubt they really care about formal recognition when they are currently able to operate as a perfectly pleasant de facto state without interference.

Sure, because who cares about the future right? Or about their comrads across the border?

[mrswdk]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream

I doubt they really care about formal recognition when they are currently able to operate as a perfectly pleasant de facto state without interference.

Sure, because who cares about the future right? Or about their comrads across the border?

They're a pretty well-organized, armed, independent autonomous region. Why would legal recognition as a separate country suddenly make them more secure than they already are?

[waauw]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream

I doubt they really care about formal recognition when they are currently able to operate as a perfectly pleasant de facto state without interference.

Sure, because who cares about the future right? Or about their comrads across the border?

They're a pretty well-organized, armed, independent autonomous region. Why would legal recognition as a separate country suddenly make them more secure than they already are?

Economic security?

[mrswdk]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream

I doubt they really care about formal recognition when they are currently able to operate as a perfectly pleasant de facto state without interference.

Sure, because who cares about the future right? Or about their comrads across the border?

They're a pretty well-organized, armed, independent autonomous region. Why would legal recognition as a separate country suddenly make them more secure than they already are?

Economic security?

I think their oil reserves take care of that one.

[Dukasaur]

Northern Cyprus is quite content as a de facto independent state without needing the trappings of sovereignty.

[waauw]

Kurdistan is a dream and nothing but a dream

I doubt they really care about formal recognition when they are currently able to operate as a perfectly pleasant de facto state without interference.

Sure, because who cares about the future right? Or about their comrads across the border?

They're a pretty well-organized, armed, independent autonomous region. Why would legal recognition as a separate country suddenly make them more secure than they already are?

Economic security?

I think their oil reserves take care of that one.

You can have as much oil as you want, but the point I made before was that you need trade routes to distribute that oil. The countries surrounding Kurdistan are the exact same countries Kurdistan desires independence from. Hence why I said, acquiring access to the sea is crucial.

[muy_thaiguy]

Yep. Either direct access or access through a friendly port. Turkey, so long as at least Erdogan is in charge, is about as far from friendly to the Kurds as a group can get (though there doesn't seem to be hostility to the Peshmerga/Iraqi Kurds at least), Syria looks to be a mixed bag at best, though the Kurds there have joined forces with anti-Assad and anti-ISIS forces. Iran, hard to say. If they can establish a secure trade route from their strongholds to more friendly coastal nations, they may have a chance.

[mrswdk]

They're a pretty well-organized, armed, independent autonomous region. Why would legal recognition as a separate country suddenly make them more secure than they already are?

Economic security?

I think their oil reserves take care of that one.

You can have as much oil as you want, but the point I made before was that you need trade routes to distribute that oil. The countries surrounding Kurdistan are the exact same countries Kurdistan desires independence from. Hence why I said, acquiring access to the sea is crucial.

Kurdistan already have those trade routes in place.

[GoranZ]

Someone is very nervous...
Turkey Breaking Loose? Su-24 Downing Followed by 'Invasion' of Iraq

[waauw]

They're a pretty well-organized, armed, independent autonomous region. Why would legal recognition as a separate country suddenly make them more secure than they already are?

Economic security?

I think their oil reserves take care of that one.

You can have as much oil as you want, but the point I made before was that you need trade routes to distribute that oil. The countries surrounding Kurdistan are the exact same countries Kurdistan desires independence from. Hence why I said, acquiring access to the sea is crucial.

Kurdistan already have those trade routes in place.

They are also not militarily trying to gain independence. There is no ongoing independence war, officially they're just fighting against ISIS at the moment. But if they start mobilizing troops to liberate turkish kurdistan, that will start to change.

[patches70]

Someone is very nervous...
Turkey Breaking Loose? Su-24 Downing Followed by 'Invasion' of Iraq

Turkey is trying to protect their highly lucrative though illegal oil trade with stolen Iraqi oil, stolen by ISIS and the likes. That Turkish regiment has put themselves directly between the Kurds who are actively fighting ISIS and ISIS troops. That is also the smuggling route of ISIS oil going into Turkey.

[mrswdk]

They're a pretty well-organized, armed, independent autonomous region. Why would legal recognition as a separate country suddenly make them more secure than they already are?

Economic security?

I think their oil reserves take care of that one.

You can have as much oil as you want, but the point I made before was that you need trade routes to distribute that oil. The countries surrounding Kurdistan are the exact same countries Kurdistan desires independence from. Hence why I said, acquiring access to the sea is crucial.

Kurdistan already have those trade routes in place.

They are also not militarily trying to gain independence. There is no ongoing independence war, officially they're just fighting against ISIS at the moment. But if they start mobilizing troops to liberate turkish kurdistan, that will start to change.

Yes, if they started trying to invade Turkey they would find themselves in trouble.

[waauw]

Yes, if they started trying to invade Turkey they would find themselves in trouble.

Well that's all I meant. We've come to agreement, now if only NATO and Russia could do the same.