[Official] Choose Your Own Mafia - TOWN WINS

[Metsfanmax]

You do not claim cop, you do not claim. That way mafia do not know what role you are, and if they guess incorrectly may night kill you.

Dakky you were 12th draft, Mitch was 14th. I am suggesting that players need the end of the list are more likely to be powerless. You two are confirming that theory. You claim was not required or in anyway helpful. There are very few circumstances in which it is beneficial for town to claim their role early.

I am not reading much into this, as both you and Mitch are liable to claim early for idiotic rather than scum reasons.

I get what you say, but then you shouldn't have stayed onto your theory for so long. And push it so hard.

I don't think this is helping. When you posted that, Wing hadn't actually been pushing the theory about benga for more than a couple posts, and this current dispute is likely to turn into more than the original issue. Also, your argument is basically the argument Wing was already making: people towards the end of the draft are likely to end up vanilla. It is perfectly obvious to everyone involved that it's possible benga has a PR. Wing is playing an argument of probability, he didn't say benga is certainly vanilla, he just said benga probably is. Your role claim didn't do anything to prove one way or another that Wing was wrong.

Though I too lean towards this being evidence for you as town.

On the other hand, you're not reading what I said - if I was 12th and ended up vanilla for choosing boring role, that could as well mean 15th pick chose something important and got the role.
All I'm trying to say - only mets got his wanted role, everyone else can be vanilla or have a big role, even by being 15th.

And it's coming off as saying that benga was as likely to get the role he wanted as Tim, when probabilistically speaking that's just not true. We have useful information in the fact that folks higher up in the draft are more likely to have strong PRs, let's not immediately discard it.

[Endgame422]

Mitch im going to hope you think your being funny.
Mets the fact is lower drafts are more likely to be vanilla townies but are also more likely to be goons(in the event they are scum)
Its easy to make an arguement that we should target the HIGHEST drafted players first,as they are most likely to be powerful scum and town can afford to lose one of our number of stronger PRs,whereas scum cannot.
Im not actually advocating this plan as it has the same flaw as targeting lower drafted players.
We are considering a complete unknown.

[Metsfanmax]

Mets the fact is lower drafts are more likely to be vanilla townies but are also more likely to be goons(in the event they are scum)
Its easy to make an arguement that we should target the HIGHEST drafted players first,as they are most likely to be powerful scum and town can afford to lose one of our number of stronger PRs,whereas scum cannot.
Im not actually advocating this plan as it has the same flaw as targeting lower drafted players.
We are considering a complete unknown.

The odds of hitting scum at random are as high near the top of the list as they are near the bottom, and as usual they are balanced in non-town's favor (2:1). So if you have no extra knowledge, then the only way to justify that argument is to say that a scum power role is twice as useful to scum as a town power role is to town. But actually this is exactly the opposite of the truth. Mafia already have all the advantage when the game starts: they know who their teammates are, and they have a night kill. Their power roles are less important to them than town power roles are to town, since the power roles are all the advantage that town has in addition to the thread itself.

Even if we accept your statement that one could reasonably disagree with this analysis, dakky's case seems to have been that Wing's argument was obviously wrong, and never even made this argument. And in any case, it's completely irrelevant to the case of whether dakky should have outed himself as vanilla to somehow prove that people below him might be non-vanilla.

[benga]

Mets the fact is lower drafts are more likely to be vanilla townies but are also more likely to be goons(in the event they are scum)
Its easy to make an arguement that we should target the HIGHEST drafted players first,as they are most likely to be powerful scum and town can afford to lose one of our number of stronger PRs,whereas scum cannot.
Im not actually advocating this plan as it has the same flaw as targeting lower drafted players.
We are considering a complete unknown.

The odds of hitting scum at random are as high near the top of the list as they are near the bottom, and as usual they are balanced in non-town's favor (2:1). So if you have no extra knowledge, then the only way to justify that argument is to say that a scum power role is twice as useful to scum as a town power role is to town. But actually this is exactly the opposite of the truth. Mafia already have all the advantage when the game starts: they know who their teammates are, and they have a night kill. Their power roles are less important to them than town power roles are to town, since the power roles are all the advantage that town has in addition to the thread itself.

Even if we accept your statement that one could reasonably disagree with this analysis, dakky's case seems to have been that Wing's argument was obviously wrong, and never even made this argument. And in any case, it's completely irrelevant to the case of whether dakky should have outed himself as vanilla to somehow prove that people below him might be non-vanilla.

Confirmed, seems like I'm late to the party. vote benga since he picked last, probably doesn't have an important role so no need to have him around.

Killing of bottom will then hurt more townies rather than help win the game, cause like this mafia will just kill power roles of top.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

First off - I used draft order for my jokevote. The draft order has NOTHING to do with who is scum. The draft order cannot be used for scumhunting. Mets is right, these discussions arent particularly useful.

Secondly, PTlowe unvoting me doesnt excuse you from the question. Please answer, your actions make it look like you werent scumhunting and now you are trying to hide behind a vote on Tim. (Tim's logic in THAT post is so screwed up, but thats been addressed elsewhere now)

lol, way to much analysis of my actions. unvote streaker vote wingcmdr ginkapo for voting me lol

Can you explain what about my post makes me scum? Omgus much?

Thirdly, is it just me who doesnt like this from Virus? I've only seriously suggested lynching one person so far, and that has nothing to do with Pt's position in the list...

oops been a while since last mafia game not a regular in the forum no more. i Confirm!

i can go with the end of list theory, but i would like to pick a target that wingcmdr isnt choosing then. i mean the idea has some merit in my opinion but could just be scum telling the idea. so rather not have wing in charge of the selection then

So far I like Mets and AoG's contributions to the game, not necessarily scumhunting but are trying to keep us on the right path. End and Dakky are also seeming town to me.

Epi suggested that scumhunting is futile which looks scummy to me.

thinking someone is scum (ie ptolwe) this early is probably an exercise in futility.

So he joins Ptlowe on my scum radar.

[TimWoodbury]

oh I care who gets voted , just want to hear more from Tim and Daz about their comments and like to hear what everyone else has to say before I make my final say, don't want to repeat my past mistakes

i said more or lesss the same exact thing as someone on the page before me said. ps sorry for lack of posts from me here started new job monday so doing alot of butt kissing to make shure i keep it .

so heres a theory, we know there may or may not be a vigilantie that can kill once each night, just for thoughts the vigilantie if there is one COULD be town could also be mafia we dont know yet. so say all town peeps say they are town(though everyone would claim town) but obviously not the roles. we now there is 2 teams of 2 mafia with any luck the vig can guess the right ones and end it in just a matter of time especially with the help of the cop and doc. again this is a far out there theory especially with 2 sets of mafia idk if it would work

[Marashu]

DAILY VOTE COUNT

Hotshot: Epi, Endgame
Marashu: Whatsausage
Sausage: Mets, Tim
ptlowe: Wing
Endgame: AoG
Epi: dazza
Tim: ptlowe, dakky

Not voting:Streaker, virus, Benga, HotShot, madmitch

Deadline is 1200CCT, Sept 27. With 15 alive, it takes 8 votes to lynch.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Tim, I feel like you are confused by the step up from C9 mafia.

The dayphase of this game is exactly the same as C9 its only the nightphase which is different. You should spend the day trying to find scum exactly the same as C9. All 15 players will claim town so there is no simple way to break the game. The better we scumhunt in the day, the better the night actions of the Vig, Doc, Cop etc will be.

At the moment dont conern yourself with the night play, and just concentrate on scumhunting. We win by killing scum and sk in the lynch. Vig and Bomb kills are just a bonus that cannot be relyed on. Cop, tracker and watcher can give us better information from D2 onwards, but there is no guarentee of that, or that they are necessarily town players.

Note: Vig has a higher chance of hitting town at the moment, but we can improve that with good scumhunting.
Note 2: There is a doublevoter who has a double vote in the day, this doesnt make a massive difference to the game.

[TimWoodbury]

nah not confused guess i am however trying to think to big to early though

[Endgame422]

Tim,there definetly is a vigilante,they are definetly town.
And @mets i agree(and even stated)that arguement is flawed,but i only brought it up to make the point that draft order should have no bearing our lynch target.
Im sure several players will ignore/disagree with this and make arguements based on draft order further down the road,but at least i can feel like i tried to force scum to come up with something better then"hes drafted low so we can afford to kill him"

[madmitch]

Tim,there definetly is a vigilante,they are definetly town.
And @mets i agree(and even stated)that arguement is flawed,but i only brought it up to make the point that draft order should have no bearing our lynch target.
Im sure several players will ignore/disagree with this and make arguements based on draft order further down the road,but at least i can feel like i tried to force scum to come up with something better then"hes drafted low so we can afford to kill him"

@ endgame, sorry I have to disagree ,the role I wanted was given to someone higher than me in the draft order and it was not a big role like cop or docter ,so as far as I can tell the lower people on the draft are vanilla

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

@ Mitch. If the bottom 5 players are all vanilla or goon only, should we kill them all? Will this benefit town and help us win the game?

As your answer is hopefully no, we can move on from this.

[Endgame422]

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

](*,)

I feel bad, I started this with my jokevote.

Does anyone have an opinion on Ptlowe? Or End's case on Hotshot, or AoG's on Endgame?

[Endgame422]

Opinion on ptlowe:Im unsure why you are so certain wing but i have zero reason to think he is town so im ok pressuring him.
And did AoG make a case on me?
I had to reread to see it.

I feel like Endgame is scummy. He's pushing so hard to try to get out of the joke vote stage when he's the only one that sees any danger. I feel like he's scum or an sk trying too hard to act townie

unvote vote endgame

Im not sure its even worth it to rehash this but noone else has anything to say so here goes.
Jokevotes are only helpful to scum.
They dont give town anything,as everyone is "joking" and does not have to take a stand.
In a game this size scum are not going to try and take the lead and are going to try and lay low D1 until they can discuss with their team at night and get a plan going.
Players who are flying under the radar seem the more likely scum to me. Odds are in scums favor to stay quiet. They only have a roughly 14 percent(2/15) chance of 1 of their team being hit unless they blow it by saying something stupid.

This is why id put wing and tim as a soft towns right now,if they were scum he could just sit back and watch nothing happen,whereas they are trying to at least generate some discussion,even though I disagreed with wings logic and tim seems confused by the draft a bit,they are probably my 2 best town reads right now.
Dakky im guessing town also but not because he is generating anything but because i think hes a bit irritated about getting vanilla and so claimed it in frustration.Hes proven he knows how to keep his head down before so either its a gambit to become "confirmed" or he is just being dakky.
Ive never known dakky to run any kind of gambit so im guessing town as well although admittedly not based on anything but meta.

[ptlowe]

](*,)

I feel bad, I started this with my jokevote.

Does anyone have an opinion on Ptlowe? Or End's case on Hotshot, or AoG's on Endgame?

Firstly, I was on my phone when I confirmed. Your "theory" of my being skum is based on me posting twice. Second post was a joke vote would show that I voted sausage because he voted streaker than unvoted streaker. Making a mountain out of a mole hole like someone already pointed out.

Second, I believe your so hard after me because I got such good reads in my last game. This makes me a strong player. Gotta focus on someone when your scum and thats what your doing. Point, point, point and hope someone else gets lynched. Well if I get lynched or killed during day 1 or night 1 my fellow townies you need to lynch Wing day 2 because he is definitely mafia. Yes Im calling you out Wing. My scum meter is higher on Tim. Your defending of Tim is reminiscent of last game where Dakky defended Tim. So I personally think Tim is scum and Im sticking to my guns on this one. Not changing it. His post was very scummy and on top of that it took him a day to respond to mine and dakkys accusation. As before when he was mafia he didnt out right defend himself. Just said he was "busy" with work. Well I work 6 days a week and 12 hours a day and still have the time to make posts.

Posts by person since confirmation....Now I might be off one or two and sorry for that.
Virus 1
Dazz 1
TimWoodbury 6
Madmitch 8
streaker 2
endgame 13
epitaph1 4
dakky21 6
ptlowe 7
AOG 4
Sausage 2
Wing 12
metsfan 7
hotshot 3
benga 2

So let me ask you...we have multiple people with 2 posts or less...We should probably try to ferrit out which ones are keeping there heads down to survive day 1. Look at Dazza for example. One nasty post and thats it.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

So you think I am scum, but unvoted me?

[ptlowe]

So you think I am scum, but unvoted me?

I think Tim is scum and have an inclination that you may be if you keep accusing me on no basis.

[dakky21]

So let me ask you...we have multiple people with 2 posts or less...We should probably try to ferrit out which ones are keeping there heads down to survive day 1. Look at Dazza for example. One nasty post and thats it.

I agree on this. But some people are "just inactive" and may not be mafia for not posting anything.
I know already that posting can either mark you as town or mafia and that non posting is generally scummy.
Last game Sausage was inactive for real, he was mafia and he won just because of that. But that isn't always the case.

I would really like to hear something from virus, dazza, Sausage and benga.

fp'd by wing & pt

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

So you think I am scum, but unvoted me?

I think Tim is scum and have an inclination that you may be if you keep accusing me on no basis.

Then we go back to the original question. Why did you vote me in the first place?

[ptlowe]

Because you were most likely case at the initial vote placement. Then Tim made his post that just reeked with scum.

[HotShot53]

Tim,there definetly is a vigilante,they are definetly town.

How can you possibly know this, unless you are a town vig? If you aren't the vig, you have no way of knowing if town or scum got the role.

[Metsfanmax]

Well if I get lynched or killed during day 1 or night 1 my fellow townies you need to lynch Wing day 2 because he is definitely mafia.

No. No. No. This type of OMGUS voting fails pretty reliably. Sometimes town just misread each other, especially on D1. It happens all the time. More to the point, if Wing was scum, it wouldn't be very smart of him to start a case on you and then kill you that night -- if he wanted you dead, he mostly would have just shut up and killed you silently so as not to draw attention to himself.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

But now if I was scum I would kill Ptlowe and you'd never suspect it.

Mets, have you got any reads?

[Metsfanmax]

But now if I was scum I would kill Ptlowe and you'd never suspect it.

Fine but he's rank 13 in the draft so who cares lol

Mets, have you got any reads?

Slight scum read on Hotshot perhaps, since he's mostly just popping in for one liners to appear as though he's participating.

Also it's quite unusual for Streaker to be this silent.