[Official] HP Mafia - MVP: Aage - Archive

[Endgame422]

I suppose virus would tell us if scum or townies are named in the notes but if scum are writing the notes then and we start thinking anyone who gets named=town or anyone whos named=scum scum can take advantage of that.
I say we ignore the notes wholesale as they seem to be a mafia play(of some kind) i doubt its going to just list scum in order so its likely a deception to get town off balance.
Agree/disagree?

[Talapus]

Probably the best case we have currently and i would rather get a claim from tal rather then a claim from virus.

Why not both? I get you and one or two others are looking my way but why not have us both claim. I personally don't care if I claim or not, I'm of the opinion name claims at this point aren't going to get us anywhere.

[StorrZerg]

I strongly doubt scum are writing the note

[virus90]

REread on Mudpuppy and i am feeling more town on him now then i felt in my lsat post. due to him being (one of the?) frists to call BS on ragian.
where i still have a problem with is the amount of following others and lack of opinions of his own. so he is not cleared in my opinion and still a reasonable target for further looking into in my opinion but my looking in to him has made me trust him bit more.

As for the note, like i said. i dont know anything about it. Streaker did you get any information this night/day since you where previously targeted? did anything change? so i agree with endgame but thats pretty obvious i guess.

as for claiming i agree with talapus in the way that the name claim is kind of mood, since we have seen dumbledore being town so that makes almost anything possible.
im still confident enough thought to claim if that is wanted / needed by you all. if that helps going in the right direction. so we would need roleclaims to go with that if names are doubtfull, thats also kind of proven with dumbledore where ofcourse the investigation was clear but the role claim put the nail in the coffin

[StorrZerg]

I find no value in anyone calling bs on rage. Deg had a fairly proven power. (Wand less dobby)

[Epitaph1]

MOD ANNOUNCEMENT:

Marashu has replaced Pixar. Thank you, Marashu.

Happy reading.

[HotShot53]

I'm pretty sure most scum would have bused rage, there was no benefit to them to protect him, he was caught red handed and was going to get lynched one way or the other. In a game this size, I can imagine there are quite a few scum, so losing one is probably not a huge problem, as long as the rest don't get linked to him. So unfortunately I don't think how people reacted to rage can really tell us much about them. Tal was the only one who slightly defended him, which could be seen as scummy, or could be seen from the town perspective of hashing out the options before the lynch since scum wouldn't defend someone who was caught. Has anyone played with Tal before to know which scenario is more likely for him?

Mudpuppy is so blatant about his sheeping that it almost seems towny, since what scum would admit to sheeping? That said, he's not helping town very much that way, and it could be an easy cover for scum who doesn't want to get caught with his votes and figures since strike is about as confirmed town as we have now, he can't be blamed too much if he votes the same as strike. I had almost forgotten he was in the game before his recent couple posts lol. MP, what are YOUR opinions about the recent cases, ignoring what strike thinks?

As for End, since he claimed VT, lynching him or not will be based solely on whether the majority thinks he has posted/voted scumily or not, since his name/role could very easily be either real or a fake claim. I don't recall anything in particular he's posted that's extra towny or extra scummy, so if it comes down to deadline and he's on or near the lynching block, I will have to re-read his posts to get a better feel for him.

It's nice to see virus being a little more active after this pressure, but nothing he's posts has changed my mind (or vote) yet.

FP by mod, welcome marashu

[got tonkaed]

I guess my whole question with scum busing Ragian is the fact that the stole vote did not end up getting put on Ragian. For me, if scum wanted to distance themselves or make it more confusing, the stolen vote would have ended up on there but it never did. So I don't know that I necessarily believe they were hopping on there to protect themselves.

Either way, the fact that we more or less had a cop check makes anyone who didnt vote a little worse off in my eyes.

[virus90]

basicly it issnt that i was pressured and got active, but the other way around, i got active and got pressured. but never mind that.

and i said he was more towny, i didnt say i town read mudpuppy, i litteraly said he is still worth looking in to. so i think we should push a bit there aswell. but that seems to happen now, im glad.

[Marashu]

Checking in! I've skimmed the last couple pages, but it will take some time to digest the monstrous 89 pages that is this game, which I probably won't have time to read until this weekend. Does anyone know roughly where start of day is, at least, to help me get started?

[got tonkaed]

Checking in! I've skimmed the last couple pages, but it will take some time to digest the monstrous 89 pages that is this game, which I probably won't have time to read until this weekend. Does anyone know roughly where start of day is, at least, to help me get started?

Bottom of page 80 starts day 4.

[Endgame422]

I strongly doubt scum are writing the note

Why?
You think town are writing notes that appear to be about killing harry potter but are really leading town to scum?
Welcome mars. You arent going to like me much but nice to see you.

[StorrZerg]

basicly it issnt that i was pressured and got active, but the other way around, i got active and got pressured. but never mind that.

and i said he was more towny, i didnt say i town read mudpuppy, i litteraly said he is still worth looking in to. so i think we should push a bit there aswell. but that seems to happen now, im glad.

I know what you said, but it was a very poor reason to hand out town credit. If he made mention of lynching rage before deg claimed, that buys better town cred. (Hey look mtamburini did)

[Talapus]

I strongly doubt scum are writing the note

Why?
You think town are writing notes that appear to be about killing harry potter but are really leading town to scum?
Welcome mars. You arent going to like me much but nice to see you.

Wait, why even ask this? So far the notes haven't been proven to lead town to scum. I mean I guess it's possible, but we have no way of knowing. Only one person has calimed from them and I don't find their claim any more or less scummy than everyone else in this game so far.

[Marashu]

So, my initial thoughts. First, just confirming that the Cruciatus curse is the HP flavour for poison? If so, is it known if I will still get my night action, or will I die before that happens?

Second, on the matter of cults - I'll believe it when there's proof of it. On the subject, though, is it possible that the Death Eaters are the cult and not mafia? (I didn't go far back enough to see Ragian's slip, I just went to the start of D4)

Third, initial impressions. I'm liking strike, Streaker, sempai, and aage right now. I don't think End is scum - possible 3rd party, but why hide it unless it has a win condition that's counter to town's? Speaking of 3rd party, I know Storr is claimed 3rd party, but is he claimed survivor? If so, should town be watching out for him, since he could easily swing over to mafia's side to score an easier win? mitch is playing as mitch - I have seen him make plays in the past, though, so I honestly don't want to discount him. He probably has something hidden in his flavour posts, but at this point I don't want to go digging through them. I can see the argument for virus, but really, Talapus seems way more scummy in my opinion. Not getting much from HotShot, but if Streaker fails again tonight, and if what mtam says is right, then I think we can pretty much confirm that HotShot is You-Know-Who. The question will then become whether the town wants to give up its claimed Night-Immune Harry right away, or to try and find other scum first.

[strike wolf]

The problem with claiming that Hotshot is You Know Who at this point if Streaker's power again fails is that mafia if they are streaker or they have a role blocker is that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy that is confirmed whether it is true or not.

The secret vote was pretty much agreed to be Scum by the time of Ragian's lynch anyways so there wasn't much point for mafia to dig the nail in any deeper than they already did. So I don't find the absence of said vote to be indication that scum (or at least some scum) weren't trying to hop on the Rage lynch to distance themselves. In fact, I would say it is likely that if scum were bussing him than they could have been eager to do so quickly. It is quite possible that mafia initially had a split reaction to this but I would think that those who were active during the course of the lynch even if they never joined probably made little effort to call Rage town or otherwise defend him.

So if Pix/Marashu was poisoned N3 and no one died of poisoning N2. It could be an every other night and/or a limited shot ability that mafia has. THough I doubt that mafia would waste a limited shot ability on Mets as an unknown N1. Even if he was onto one of them Day 1, poisoning would not stop him from voicing his opinions D2. So I am thinking every other night. Hmmm...who was it who first called poisoning an every other night ability in this game?

I really do apologize for my limited activity for this day so far. There has been an incident involving my department at work and while i can't go into details, I was swamped by e-mails Sunday night and have basically worked 10+ hours each day this week (So no I didn't end up taking that one half day like I had hoped. ). Friday will be a little bit laxer but I will probably still have to work a full day. Most of my activity time will be delayed until this weekend.

[got tonkaed]

D1
pershy - dazza, dd, Storr, Endgame, sempai, sempai, SW, aage, deg

D2
skill - Strike, dd, Mets, mitch, Streaker, Endgame, virus, Wing, Talapus, sempai, aage, sempai

D3
Ragian - Daz, sempai, mtam, Streaker, aage, Endgame, mitch, charm, dd, tonka

Bolded people on all 3 wagons. Out of all of these I'd argue the one who might have hopped on as scum near the end would be Endgame or DD. DD is on both of the town lynches pretty early.

[aage]

aage lets talk about stuff

I've been busy with my studies and friends all day, I would've posted if I could... What stuff specifically do you want to talk about?


Marashu replacing Pix is good, at least he'll turn in a sensible night action tonight. We're assuming the cruciatus is a poison ability, since Mets died a day after he was targeted. It's very possible that you'll be dead by tomorrow, but mechanics-wise you should die by the end of the night, thus being able to put in an action regardless.

Streaker not being able to target Hotshot... Couple of things. Streaker, do you know if you got blocked, or if the action literally failed? Mtam, does your role say that You Know Who cannot be targeted by any action, or just by a night kill (like vig kill that you mentioned)? Assuming Streaker is telling the truth, I agree with Strike's point that it would be fairly easy for scum to play into this hand by blocking Streaker. Depending on the answers from Streaker and Mtam there are several scenarios possible, but none of them give certainty on Streaker's and HotShot's legitimacy.

Tonkaed, you seem to be looking to push DD (and Endgame, who already claimed), also couple of things. Why do you think scum would hop on all three wagons? Why do you think DD and Endgame are more likely scum than me? Sempai is on all three too, you didn't bold him because you think he's 100% town? Do you have any other indication than this rudimentary wagon analysis that DD is scum hopping onto the wagon? You're suggesting DD is scum because he voted on the town wagons early... is it bad that he hopped on early and why?

[got tonkaed]

Well do you think scum wouldn't vote on town lynches? I am not sure I am entirely behind the idea that scum hopped on the Ragian wagon. But since that has been presented more than once it seemed worth putting it out there, since we didnt actually have the wagons up.

Admittedly I missed Sempai on all 3 (probably just looking for both names and having a brain fart). Sempai would be one that I would exclude more or less on the grounds that he is fairly confirmed at this point.

I didnt think you would be as likely because for the most part you have had a largely town read from a variety of players. You certainly shouldn't be excluded as possibly scum.

Kinda confused by your tone, would you rather we don't take a look at who voted for who? DD is kind of interesting because of where he jumped on the day 3 wagon. The cop check was fairly solid early in the day, so to be only hopping on at the very end (i unvoted and revoted for conversation sake as did Storr, which is why he isnt on there) seems worth pointing out.

[StorrZerg]

id be interested in people who voted on none of the lynches or less than 1. (do not count rage vote)

[strike wolf]

id be interested in people who voted on none of the lynches or less than 1. (do not count rage vote)

Well I know Tonka is on that lynch. He also avoided the Sempai vote on Day 1.

[Endgame422]

Hey semp can you cast your second vote?
You seemed pretty quick to jump on me(fair enough)but didnt use your second vote like i expected you to do.
Why was that?

[MudPuppy]

REread on Mudpuppy and i am feeling more town on him now then i felt in my lsat post. due to him being (one of the?) frists to call BS on ragian.
where i still have a problem with is the amount of following others and lack of opinions of his own. so he is not cleared in my opinion and still a reasonable target for further looking into in my opinion but my looking in to him has made me trust him bit more.

I definitely had intended to be able to study the game more but real life hit like a ton of bricks this past month... I've barely been able to keep reading the past couple of days. I'm not one who can keep track of inconsistencies in chat without taking detailed notes (especially in a game this big) and I've not been able to do that for most of the game.

So, yes, I am town... but alas not following nearly as closely as I hoped to be able to when I signed up.

[StorrZerg]

Game is about to stall out before weekend. Place votes please.

[got tonkaed]

Going to change things up and Vote Talapus.

Was not on skill until after a claim that would have been easy to say didnt believe. Never got on the cop check lynch.