[Official] HP Mafia - MVP: Aage - Archive

[aage]

To build on that, I'll speak more about that third quote since I asked Streaker his opinion about it. Talapus is probably going to disagree with what I'm analysing here but this post should be discussed more.

Is this really the general concensus of the the game is to lynch the claimed Dumbledore? I mean, after rereading and not being able to come up with a plausible explanation of why that curse would be used by him for good I understand. I will even vote for Rag myself if needed. I was just really hoping the real Dumbledore or believeable explanation would have appeared by now that can explain it all.

Also I'm curious. I know Ron has claimed and I don't want him really to come forward and say as night abilities are not needed to be claimed at this moment. But I would assume that Ron, HP, and Hermione would be masons so could probably talk at night. But for the life of me can't remember a past mafia game with multiple same faction mason groups. Has anyone encountered this before?

I ask because it makes the whole cult is probably among us thing concerning.

Green text: this sentence reads to me that the "one and only claimed Dumbledore" is the real (town) Dumbledore. The second sentence then reads that Talapus understands that the town wants to lynch the Dumbledore, but doesn't agree with the lynch.
Red text: Will vote for Rag myself --> Rag is at L-2 at this point, just before DD puts him at L-1 and practically forbids Talapus to vote. Saying this is easy after making several posts that have a clear anti-dumbledore lynch tone.
Purple text: Fishing for a different Dumbledore claim. This means Talapus didn't vote Ragian yet because there was no counterclaim... This fits in with the theory that Dumbledore was not a mod-given fake claim, and Ragian tried to draw out the real Dumbledore.
Blue text: blatant rolefishing from Talapus. He covers himself by saying he's not asking for abilities, and then proceeds to ask for abilities; apparently he thinks HarryRonHermione are masoned. First of all this is a strange assumption to make, Harry and Hermione had already claimed to have an ability and mason + power role is extremely rare. What it does do is put focus back on the theme, and away from the gameplay: theme is important. Also, let's talk about something else and draw attention away from the Ragian lynch.
Orange text: And now the subject shifts to cult, but it's unclear to me how this relates to the subject of HRH as masons... Again draw attention away from Ragian lynch.



This is how I read this post, and why I think it's important to look at.

[dazza2008]

That all looks nice but can you really see him trying to defend a scum buddy at L-2 when he is pretty certainly going to be lynched? Surely at that point scum would just let it happen or even hammer him. I will read back tomorrow I hope but I don't remember thinking Tal seemed scummy when it happened.

[aage]

That all looks nice but can you really see him trying to defend a scum buddy at L-2 when he is pretty certainly going to be lynched? Surely at that point scum would just let it happen or even hammer him. I will read back tomorrow I hope but I don't remember thinking Tal seemed scummy when it happened.

Not defending, but rather stalling and waiting for a counterclaim. Analysing the post like that assumes that mafia didn't get the Dumbledore fakeclaim from the mod, and claimed it in order to get counterclaimed. You know he's not defending because he says he would vote, but wants others to chime in first.

[dd515087]

Red text: Will vote for Rag myself --> Rag is at L-2 at this point, just before DD puts him at L-1 and practically forbids Talapus to vote. Saying this is easy after making several posts that have a clear anti-dumbledore lynch tone.

I did not "forbid" anyone to vote. All I meant was that I personally would find it scummy if this happened and I didn't know if I would be able to post again before day's end so I put my thoughts out there for the rest of the town to see.

[dazza2008]

That all looks nice but can you really see him trying to defend a scum buddy at L-2 when he is pretty certainly going to be lynched? Surely at that point scum would just let it happen or even hammer him. I will read back tomorrow I hope but I don't remember thinking Tal seemed scummy when it happened.

Not defending, but rather stalling and waiting for a counterclaim. Analysing the post like that assumes that mafia didn't get the Dumbledore fakeclaim from the mod, and claimed it in order to get counterclaimed. You know he's not defending because he says he would vote, but wants others to chime in first.

Fair one. It struck me more as being worried about lynching Dumbledore but the claim seemed really fake so you could be right.

[Talapus]

That all looks nice but can you really see him trying to defend a scum buddy at L-2 when he is pretty certainly going to be lynched? Surely at that point scum would just let it happen or even hammer him. I will read back tomorrow I hope but I don't remember thinking Tal seemed scummy when it happened.

Not defending, but rather stalling and waiting for a counterclaim. Analysing the post like that assumes that mafia didn't get the Dumbledore fakeclaim from the mod, and claimed it in order to get counterclaimed. You know he's not defending because he says he would vote, but wants others to chime in first.

Well, giving myself the time e asked for at least. The mason stuff I can elaborate on more if wanted but it was speculation only. I have zero intention of responding to the rest of your text as you may analyze it however you want. In all honesty I believe had Rag been the real Dumbledore this would not even be a conversation point but it is what it is.

[aage]

That all looks nice but can you really see him trying to defend a scum buddy at L-2 when he is pretty certainly going to be lynched? Surely at that point scum would just let it happen or even hammer him. I will read back tomorrow I hope but I don't remember thinking Tal seemed scummy when it happened.

Not defending, but rather stalling and waiting for a counterclaim. Analysing the post like that assumes that mafia didn't get the Dumbledore fakeclaim from the mod, and claimed it in order to get counterclaimed. You know he's not defending because he says he would vote, but wants others to chime in first.

Fair one. It struck me more as being worried about lynching Dumbledore but the claim seemed really fake so you could be right.

Maybe I'm wrong but the consensus afaik was that Ragian's fake claim was not believable and that the added cop result from Degaston was damning evidence. I had made a post earlier that day saying that if there was a real Dumbledore, they should not counterclaim because there was no need: Ragian was already scummy enough to lynch.

@talap, fine don't respond, but then at least do elaborate on the mason stuff. If you think I'm speculating too much, answer me this: why did you want to give other people more time to chime in? What useful information would that have provided? (Other than a counterclaim, but we clearly disagree on whether the real Dumbledore should counterclaim.) And do you think the Dumbledore claim was a provided fake claim or a lure?

[HotShot53]

well, things seem to be staying interesting in here... and the second note only confuses things even further. Virus has been very inactive, and he has been known to scummarize when scum... he hasn't posted enough to hardly get much of a read on him otherwise, so some pressure to get him more active is appropriate. If after re-reading some of the other cases later today I don't find anything better I will be putting my vote here.

Town is not helped very much by the fact that the three main name claims are mtam, pix & mitch... and none of the three have helped at all. Like everyone else, I can't believe pix tried to save storr instead of deg... and am surprised that scum thought they could get away with killing the cop before the doc, but apparently they were right. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a roleblock/bus drive or something to know that they could get away with the kill, but since pix didn't protect deg we won't know from this.

Later today I will re-read the people who are getting some pressure (virus, end, talapus, dazza) to see if I agree with any of the cases enough to vote them.

Honestly the push on virus regarding the note is purely role fishing. It's just a nice thing to know with a scum push

Huh? You are the one who started voting virus... are you accusing yourself of role fishing?

[StorrZerg]

@hotshot yes and no.

that line of thinking is just super role fishing.

then you have his actions regardless of the note, and he is lacking

[Metsfanmax]

This is now the fifth-longest mafia game ever (by number of posts) on CC and is surely on track to take the record when it finishes!

[Talapus]

@talap, fine don't respond, but then at least do elaborate on the mason stuff. If you think I'm speculating too much, answer me this: why did you want to give other people more time to chime in?

I was actually hopeful that maybe there was a night mechanic or action that may have been used that may have given deg a false positive on Rag. Obviously with no counterclaim or anything if Rag was in fact the real Dumbledore obviously he couldn't explain how the curse would have shown up but others might have and I mentioned this.[/quote]

What useful information would that have provided? (Other than a counterclaim, but we clearly disagree on whether the real Dumbledore should counterclaim.) And do you think the Dumbledore claim was a provided fake claim or a lure?

And see now you want me to enter the same territory I entered into yesterday with Streaker. At end of day we will disagree I'm sure but here it goes. Lynching Rag was thought by many to teach us lots and really we are right back at square at one on many of the issues, another reason I wanted everyone to chime in yesterday. As no Dumbledore has stepped forward or countered the crap from yesterday we still don't know if there is a real Dumbledore or not. And worse if that was a fake claim given by mod then we are in even worse shape because HP claimed and we'd have to seriously look into him. Along with all the others that namedropped. We have no way of knowing at this point.

But my whole thought on the possible masons was kind of brought about by this note. Obviously, through certain game mechanics other players are allowed to try and communicate with each other at night. Mtam has been a complete dick in many of his posts and I doubt many will disagree with that. The thought was well what if cult converted the boy who lived. Of course he can continue to be a dick and no one will question or lynch his ass because he is HP. But if he has the abilities to talk to R and H and he was converted then it stands to reason we will hunt scum while cult take over those main rolls. I mean look at "Ron's" posts so far. No one will gun for him and no one would be the wiser if he was converted.

HP claimed so early in this game and Ron is claimed too with constant references to Hermione. If I were recruiter I'd be all over HP like white on rice and the whole note situation made me think of that. And today with another note there is obviously someone trying to send messages. So masons or not the possibility is seriously there where third party is going to take this game if they are here.

[Talapus]

This is now the fifth-longest mafia game ever (by number of posts) on CC and is surely on track to take the record when it finishes!

And content like this will no doubt get us there that much faster

[strike wolf]

Talapus seems like possible scum. The case(s) against him make sense to me but right now I dont think Id put him higher than third or forth on the list.

[Endgame422]

Dazz if i thought you were stupid i would be "cuntish" enough to tell you. Ive played risk with both you and pix before so i know your not fools.
Im thinking pix is important scum(V,recruiter,somthing special) who you guys are worried does not really have time(i certainly believe that much) and your defending him because of it.
You have had several posts defending him on each day. Rage made a similiar arguement. I get that your making a meta read on him but thats not particularly convincing you know?
I just do not see for one second how claimed doc is still alive after i think 4 scum kills since he claimed unless there are multiple protective roles.
If there are why protect pix and not deg last night? I guess this ends in WIFOM but still this just does not seem right in my book.
As far as possible night communication between Ron/harry/hermoine i dont see how mitch/pix/mtam just telling us if they can would hurt,scum knows who they are if all 3 are legit claims anyways.
Any reason not to squash that arguement with some facts?

[Endgame422]

Reads for you to consider when you come to your senses:
1. BGtheBrain- Strike wolf v2.0 95% town
2. StorrZerg non-town, but you must get scum tomorrow
3. *Pixar* I maintain that he's town
4. got tonkaed has seemed town to me
5. strikewolf - Minerva McGonagall - Town Watcher
6. mtamburini Still HP till counterclaimed
7. IronButterfly Metsfanmaxx - Nymphadora Tonks - Town Mason
8. dakky21 Talapus - no read...
9. Endgame422 scummy, on bandwagons, hasn't posted anything of significance
10. Streaker slightly scummy, should be revisited D4
11. aage - no read, at times I think he's matter-of-fact and informed, next he's weird and frustrated
12. skillfusniper - Dobby - Vanilla Townie
13. pershy - Severus Snape - Town Vigilante
14. virus90 slightly scummy but only based on lack of participation and relevant posts
15. madmitch same as above, but has claimed powerful role
16. dazza2008 seems town - his play fits his normal town play
17. MudPuppy - no read...
18. degaston misguided townie. I would not blame him for my lynch if it comes to that
19. Ragian old dude withlong beird
20. sempaispellcheck vote steal indicates town
21. HotShot53 slightly scummy, not a lot of posting and most of it echoes whatever is said
22. dd515087 - no real read at the moment. I thought he was scummy, but then streaker made a case on him. That speaks for him.
23. jbfloyd - WingCmdr Ginkapo - Cornelius Fudge - 3p Survivor
24. charm - Weird: doesn't do shit D2 because her vote is stolen. Doesn't make sense...

Go town!

Not sure how much everyone will get from this post as rage knew he was going to be lynched but still worth a look.
Once again directs us towards charm and away from pix(and dazza) as he did all game.
Basically puts me as scum read #1 for bandwagoning and making no cases of merit as i was pushing pix.
I mean perhaps ive overthought this but there is certainly a pattern here that looks alot like teamwork,which only scum have a plan while each townie is stuck thinking for themselves.
Someone cursed charm,it garners her some suspicion and someone(maybe a couple?)scum push on her for the power play lynch.
Knowing rage pushed several times and that she was cursed it just seems to me like a play scum would have to try at least once.
Take from it what you will but worth looking i think.

[Streaker]

Ok so instead of me focusing all day long on a single player, let me try to look at a broader picture. Here is a list of players that have posted on D4, without actually posting anything:

-Pixar: (claims night action bullocks, and poison). Does not take a stand on who to lynch, despite having a very townie claim. Not calling him scum, but you'd expect more from a big town role.

-Strike wolf: promises a case or 2, two days ago. Has not posted anything but 2 posts containing literally nothing of worth.
Not calling him scum, but I'd expect more by now.

-Charm: Posted today yes, but nothing of worth.

-Mitch: same boat

-Hotshot: dropping by no content.

-Virus: same story. As storr pointed out, very little to no contribution all game long. In other games when he is town, he manages to be quite good in scumhunting.

Only one not posting is mtamb, but he is on vacation. That's actually pretty good as far as activity goes. What I would like to see from the list above is that they take a stand on any of the open discussions, and not the flavour.

It is going to be impossible to hunt for the last few scum with half of the players being active but not participating in discussions. It's not enough to have us guessing that claims are fake or not. We can't decide on flavour posts alone. It would be so much easier if they'd participate in the discussions. Ofcourse, if they're mafia that's exactly what they are looking to avoid.

FP'd end

[Streaker]

show

And I'll gladly revisit that with you. You make it sound like it is a bad thing that we do not know about a possible real Dumbledore. Is it that bad to have mafia guessing? If there is a real one, he'll step forward if he has anything. If there isn't, big deal. No loss to town.

Another issue I have with you: why do you keep hammering on about cult??? We've managed to kill 1 mafia so far. There has been no indication in any of the deaths that there is cult. There has been no indication in the flavour scenes that there is cult. With just 1 mafia down, we really need to focus there. I'm not discarding the possible threat of a cult, but really that's not where our focus should be right now.

TL;DR: The way I see it, you are doing 2 things: pointing town to the threat of cult (not mafia), and pointing town towards a revisit of the big names.

[Talapus]

Another issue I have with you: why do you keep hammering on about cult???

He asked me to answer his question about my thoughts on this yesterday and then it's my fault for hammering on it....lol, classic

[Streaker]

Another issue I have with you: why do you keep hammering on about cult???

He asked me to answer his question about my thoughts on this yesterday and then it's my fault for hammering on it....lol, classic

I don't remember asking you about your thoughts on cult. Even if I did, that has nothing to do with this.
Big difference between leading the town down cult avenue, or enquiring about thoughts while pushing a mafia case.

Tal, if you had 1 bullet today who'd you use it on?

[virus90]

i think the list post of ragian posted by endgame is something to look into.
he had some people as possible scum that i dont agree to. streaker, endgame, (me:P)
i dont put much value in ragian reads of pixar and got tankaed as they are not really meaningfull or explained.
which doesnt mean i think they are scum but the other town reads are more logical; Mtam, degaston. since they already claimed.
my attention is more to the neutral reads; charm and talapus. in my opinion they are both suspicious targets.
in my opinion there is a legit case on talapus at the moment and i can vote for that during this day.
and ever since probably day 1 i am suspicious of charm.

fped by streaker

[aage]

Another issue I have with you: why do you keep hammering on about cult???

He asked me to answer his question about my thoughts on this yesterday and then it's my fault for hammering on it....lol, classic

Is "he" me? I asked about the Dumbledore claim in regards to mafia, not cult. Until there is evidence of cult I couldn't care less about cult.

Streaker accuses you of leading the town towards a revisit of the "big names", and he's right in a way. But what bothers me is that you connected the claimed roles to cult, not to mafia. What also bothers me is that you didn't answer my question. I don't care that we still don't know if there is a real Dumbledore, I want to know if you think it was a fake claim or a lure.

[StorrZerg]

I can link you many games with virus having fantastic scum hunting. The thing he lacks as a player is the ability to follow up with his suspects and convince others. (likely cause he posts rarely is a large factor) Given that, its quite strange how often he has voted. I think this is one of his more active voting games.

Order of his votes
Madmitch soft claiming ron in his first post (joke vote yes)
Strike Wolf (same post, joke on his name being wolf)
BGtheBrain His first real push. Weak push.
Sempai Sheeps on this vote (lightly defends rage in this post for not knowing flavor) Gives some reads in the post (him not seeing past mtambs stubbornish is odd, he knows better about tambs play. His vote on sempai, is a sheep from town reading streaker.
mtamburini THis vote is bad from virus. Because he is hunting a role, "are you vig" "is the shot limited" "is annoyed by mtambs threats" Yet how is this different from any other game...
mudpuppy I really dont understand his push on mudpuppy. its not even a case, just i'd like to vote him
ENd of day 1

Skillfullsniper Strangely this vote comes in pretty late into day 2. He has no other input since then, and had decided to not make a new case, and instead pick from one of the ones present, so he follows strike on skill.

End of day 2

NO vote day 3 or 4.

[sempaispellcheck]

my attention is more to the neutral reads; charm and talapus. in my opinion they are both suspicious targets.
in my opinion there is a legit case on talapus at the moment and i can vote for that during this day.
and ever since probably day 1 i am suspicious of charm.

The case on Talapus I can see, but I read charm town right now because she's continually been targeted by scum - first the Imperius Curse, then the note, now some other type of curse.
I HIGHLY doubt scum would do all of these things to one of their own.

Also, I'm not sure how much of Ragian's list can be trusted, since he's scum and probably wouldn't want to rat out his buddies.

sempai

[strike wolf]

Ragian's post about player views is mostly uneventful. The neutral reads might hold something but the actual town and scum reads with maybe one or two exceptions followed what everyone else was saying.

[StorrZerg]

Strike comments on virus or dazza, and got a case?