[Official] HP Mafia - MVP: Aage - Archive

[MudPuppy]

What makes Skill a likely town Mud?

Dega's no wand confirmation. This is Hogwarts... practically everyone's got a wand. Skill claims no wand and, if we are to believe Dega (which I do), his confirmation of the no wand claim goes a decent way toward validating the claim. Without Dega, I'd likely be voting Skill myself.

Sure, Skill could be Crabbe/Goyle/Nagini or some other baddie without a wand and picked a somewhat believable non-wand goodie as his claim... but I'm still leaning town as I'd wager there are some other non-magical good guys who would have made a more believable fake claim.

[strike wolf]

I thought we agreed earlier that not having a wand wasnt alignment indicative.

[MudPuppy]

I thought we agreed earlier that not having a wand wasnt alignment indicative.

Not sure I agreed with that earlier... but will certainly agree now.

I just acknowledged in my response to you that Skill could be a baddie without a wand so I'm not sure why you think I'm stating No Wand = Townie.

Scum Skill could have made up any fake claim but he chose a VT Dobby. 1) I think there are likely more believable VT fake claims out there (not sure who... Hagrid might be too major; Dursleys might be too scummy... but I bet there must be someone) and 2) Deg confirming the lack of a wand supports at least that part of Skill's claim. It's not without holes but I think it is solid enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Epitaph1]

VOTE COUNT

Pixar - mtamburini, charm
Mets - Ragian, Storr, Wing, sempai, sempai
skill - Strike, dd, Mets, mitch, Streaker, Endgame, virus
Storr - skill, Mud, dega, Hotshot

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to lynch

Deadline: Friday, 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time - firm

Re: Deadline. When the deadline is reached, the player with the most votes will be lynched. If there is a tie, then a no lynch will occur. If "no lynch" has the most votes, then there will also be a no lynch.

I'll update the rule section for clarity.

[degaston]

I thought we agreed earlier that not having a wand wasnt alignment indicative.

I agree with this - so what is it that makes you want to lynch him?

His being one of the least active players can be a scum tell, but not a very reliable one. I chose to investigate him on N1 because of that. But in the posts he has made, I don't see anything that looks particularly scummy.

If the only choice was to lynch one of the existing wizard claims or skill, I'd probably go for skill, just from the point of view that if they're all telling the truth, then he's the least damaging loss. But I think that Storr is even less of a loss, because his motivations can never be trusted, and though he may say that he is on our side, he will always vote for a townie over himself.

[MudPuppy]

I thought we agreed earlier that not having a wand wasnt alignment indicative.

Not sure I agreed with that earlier... but will certainly agree now.

EBWOP - just re-read that and see it didn't came out as intended: Not sure I was the one who agreed with that earlier... but I always have felt that way and will certainly agree with it now.

[StorrZerg]

Ask skill to give a few more reads...

[MudPuppy]

Ask skill to give a few more reads...

errr... OK... Skill, can you give us a few more reads, please?

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Good point - Skill seeing as you seem to be on your way out. Before you leave can you post what your thoughts are on each player please? It will be useful information to work from. If you're town this will be valuable. Remember all town win when mafia die, not just those who are still alive.

[Ragian]

unvote

Strike seems to be in the know about mets. I still think mets have acted scummily, though, but I'd hardly expect scum to not throw a buddy under the bus D2. I would.

re: Pix, it's true that Pix perhaps hasn't answered to your satisfaction, but I've spent months trying to decipher his way of talking, and it seems to me that he say that 1) he didn't believe mtam D1 so he voted for him, 2) despite him not believing him, he protected him as there was no other obvious choice but this strong claim, and 3) he works under the (perhaps false) assumption that scum didn't target mtam (because someone else died) so mtam must be scum. It's flawed, but it's what he's saying (if my translator is working properly).

Enough about that already.

re: skillfu, I'm not going to get sucked into a flavour-based argument so I'll stear clear of that. The VT claim is a bad choice if you're scum given the claims that are out there. To me that indicates a townie. Especially given that skillfu, before his claim, said himself that he expected to go due to his claim. Scum would claim something better. I think he's town.

As I read through the six or so pages that you've produced since last time I was around, I get a strong town vibe from wing. I'm also somewhat annoyed that the strong claims don't seem to offer much (which may sound weird with me babysitting Pix). Actually, they seem to be acting the most scummy.

I gotta say that if we are to decide between Stor and Skillfu, I'm voting Stor. VT > 3rd party. I expect I'm heading for an argument with that.

[StorrZerg]

So rage, do you ever plan on lynching mafia?

also, explain your town read in skill please.
because "mafia wouldn't claim vt" is pretty piss poor.

[got tonkaed]

I mean, i've seen people who don't have much of a role in a large game kind of fade in and out like skill did. Sometimes it is boring to not play without a power role in a large game up front, when there is so little focus.

I think it just ended up being a meta thing and people decided scummy was the best option. Clearly it is not conclusive.

[StorrZerg]

Calling it if there can be vts, then mafia kill/s are likely faction based and wouldn't require a wand.

Likely mafia VTs will be trolls , or evil allies. And their fake claims would match, aka dobby. Possibly squibs, but I can't think of any besides my character.

[got tonkaed]

Calling it if there can be vts, then mafia kill/s are likely faction based and wouldn't require a wand.

Likely mafia VTs will be trolls , or evil allies. And their fake claims would match, aka dobby. Possibly squibs, but I can't think of any besides my character.

Did skill ever directly say VT? I was under the impression as I was reading through that someone else in the discussion essentially said that for him.

[StorrZerg]

Calling it if there can be vts, then mafia kill/s are likely faction based and wouldn't require a wand.

Likely mafia VTs will be trolls , or evil allies. And their fake claims would match, aka dobby. Possibly squibs, but I can't think of any besides my character.

Did skill ever directly say VT? I was under the impression as I was reading through that someone else in the discussion essentially said that for him.

I don't think so. probably should make him confirm if he has any actions what so ever. As I said when he claimed, he didn't claim everything he could.

[got tonkaed]

I think going back over the flow of the posts again, you kind of by posting right after him saying you didn't buy a VT claim kind of shaped the discussion to be honest.

Long story short I don't want to lynch skill because it seems as likely to me that although wand is not indicative of alignment, he probably would not be scum either.

Replace skill with storr and I think you end up with similar characters. The only difference is an elf might be able to do different things without a wand, which unfortunately got chewed up before we could ever find out if those things exist.

[got tonkaed]

I guess thinking through it flavor wise I would end up going for a storr vote over a skill vote if it comes down to it (and doesn't cause a tie).

I kind of agree with Skill's point that dobby was more with Harry than not. I also think it seems pointing out that everyone is just kind of saying they expect people to have wands, but maybe the mod went the other way with it and there are a number of roles that are wandless. I don't think it has to be indicative of alignment one way or the other.

So if that leaves us with mets (who is vouched for in a way that suggests should not really be a lynch target today, assuming sempai moves the double votes) that leaves us with storr vs skill. Storr has said 3rd party, skill has said friend of harry. If neither of them have value otherwise, id rather keep friends of harry alive, vs people who say they do not care about harry.

[strike wolf]

The case on Skill is that he has a weak claim, he's been generally inactive but popped up when pressure built up (suggests he may have been submarining to try to avoid the pressure), has contributed little to the game even when he is here and his biggest contribution has been an OMGus type vote against Storr. I looked back and it does indeed look like skill never directly claimed VT but he did claim no powers and has not argued with people calling him VT and stated that he has said everything regarding his role.

There is a simple reason that Skill might have claimed Dobby as mafia and it would be because that is the fake claim that the mod gave him. The fake claim he knew no one else had and therefore was safer than claiming a more believable character/role who might be in the game as town and could be counter claimed. Furthermore, if Dega is town and his character indeed does not have a wand than he can't claim having a wand because even if he hadn't already been investigated there was the chance that he could still be investigated later and caught in a lie.

[StorrZerg]

The case on skill doesn't have to do with his claim. Has to deal with how he has playing the game, How he perks up when called upon, has no't added anything prior to his claim to town. Offered no direction for town, And after his claim he pushed an all ready claimed 3rd party survivor. He hasn't added any new reads, or evaluation of his earlier list of towns/mafia from day 1.
I do believe he has been lurking, he complains about joining the tail end of conversations, but when he was pressured he just "showed up"

[strike wolf]

The case on skill doesn't have to do with his claim. Has to deal with how he has playing the game, How he perks up when called upon, has no't added anything prior to his claim to town. Offered no direction for town, And after his claim he pushed an all ready claimed 3rd party survivor. He hasn't added any new reads, or evaluation of his earlier list of towns/mafia from day 1.
I do believe he has been lurking, he complains about joining the tail end of conversations, but when he was pressured he just "showed up"

Maybe it wasn't about his claim itself but people keep bringing up that "Mafia would never claim something so weak" as a defense for him. Too many people are too willing to accept claims at face value. If we accept every strong claim and every weak claim, there will be no one left to lynch. At least the strong claims have a legitimate reason why they are not targeted as much.

[got tonkaed]

Storr pushing this case from selfish reasons makes me less likely to want to vote for it to be honest.

[Ragian]

So rage, do you ever plan on lynching mafia?

also, explain your town read in skill please.
because "mafia wouldn't claim vt" is pretty piss poor.

That's your opinion. I cannot change that with an explanation that would eventually end up with "mafia wouldn't claim vt". Would you claim VT if you were scum at this stage?

Do you plan on lynching scum? Or don't you care? Of the claims on the table, I believe the biggest chance of hitting anti-town is you. Simple as that.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Unvote Vote Skills

Skills hasnt played like a vt at all. (He said he was Dobby with no powers at all, and then confirmed that his alignment was obvious that he always protected Harry)

Bigger problem, he isnt even defending himself anymore!

I think Metz is scum. However, if I look at Strike and ignore all his defending of Mets he seems to be town. I do what to find out more about the two of them, but I shall wait on that till D3 as we are getting close to the deadline. D3, I want an explanation from Charm, and I want an explanation from Strike. I will also put a case together against Streaker as he is next on my list, but we'll have to wait and see what I come up with after going through all his posts.

[Metsfanmax]

I still don't even get the discussion about possible fake claims of HP, Ron, and Hermoine. I mean it might, MIGHT be possible, but the possibility that the mod gave the 3 most prevelant roles as fake claims and not as town would floor me. But seriously if this happened then town is already screwed.

What if the mod gave only one of the top three as a fake claim? Is that unreasonable?

Not unreasonable. But if I were a player power role like one of those 3 characters ought to be and town and someone else claimed it I would counter in a heartbeat so we could lynch the scum and and go after whomever else looked like they were working with them.

Really though? Suppose you were Harry Potter and your role was something ridiculous like "you can vig two people every night." You'd really counterclaim in a game with 24 players?

Absolutely, everyone in the books took a hit or protected harry throughout the 7 books. With as many players in this game "the boy that lived" would make it through several nights

Perhaps this is true, but at the cost of virtually everyone on town's side throwing their defensive protection at HP instead of doing something more useful with it. (They can't coordinate because they don't know who is who.) But it's ignoring that there might be weird effects out there. Like an unblockable kill (e.g. the just-finished double fanucci game). Or an unstoppable lynch -- we already know that there are curses out there, who knows what they do. Or a cult recruiter -- no doc is going to be able to stop a recruitment.

The fact is that if HP has a super useful power, then counterclaiming on D1 just to kill one player is, to me, about the worst of the possible actions. So I do not take the lack of a counterclaim as being very reliable evidence.

In fact, if mtam is scum and scum knows it needs to eliminate HP to improve its winning chances, it's almost a brilliant move. By drawing out the actual HP so that they can target him, their work is made a lot easier. If the ploy fails, then they just have someone who is 'confirmed' town but is really scum.

This is all just speculation because I don't know what HP's power really is, nor do I know if scum knows it, or how the continued existence of HP really affects them. But there's way too many scenarios out there that explain this other than "mtam is telling the truth."

I think Metz is scum.

THERE IS NO 'Z' IN MY USERNAME. PLEASE DO NOT USE ONE WHEN REFERRING TO ME.

Thank you.

[Ragian]

D3, I want an explanation from Charm, and I want an explanation from Strike. I will also put a case together against Streaker as he is next on my list, but we'll have to wait and see what I come up with after going through all his posts.

I agree with the charm bit, but I'm not sure that getting Strike to expose himself in order to aid mets makes sense.