Calculating Expected Worth

[DoomYoshi]

Let's say it's a 20 round limit no spoils game on Feudal Epic (I don't really like the other Feudal map). This is a really simple example, and helps me illustrate a concept.

First, assume the game will go to round limit. How many spaces do you want to attack?

So, calculate how many rounds of deploy you will get for a bonus. On round 1, its 19. Then calculate expected lost troops.

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A bonus of 1 requires killing 4 troops spread over 2 territories. So, it takes 5 troops. It is only worth it in the first 15 rounds. There is no excuse to not take your entire 1-6 of the kingdom.

The map is symmetrical in that everyone has the same 10-1-1-1-5 to get through for the village bonus. That would lose an estimated 18.5 troops. It only takes 7 rounds of village bonus to win that back.

The real question is: if everyone goes for village bonus, how do you deal with it?

I would say that if the first person to arrive at the village takes it for 8-10 rounds and then pulls out to let the other guy get the bonus for a bit, that would be the optimal strategy. What does game theory say about the likelihood of this?

Do you use expected worth calculations in your day-to-day games?

In non-round limit games, its pretty simple except you can only calculate relative worth, not absolute.

[DoomYoshi]

In case you are wondering, the next statistical analysis I am going to do will be establishing a benchmark for how secure a territory or bonus is.

E.g. You have a bonus with 1 stack that has one bordering territory (e.g. Australia).
Your opponent has a bonus with 1 stack that has 2 bordering territories. That is a less defensible position. Natty dread says it isn't. I am going to prove it (or disprove it) using a unique path analysis.

[rhp 1]

In case you are wondering, the next statistical analysis I am going to do will be establishing a benchmark for how secure a territory or bonus is.

E.g. You have a bonus with 1 stack that has one bordering territory (e.g. Australia).
Your opponent has a bonus with 1 stack that has 2 bordering territories. That is a less defensible position. Natty dread says it isn't. I am going to prove it (or disprove it) using a unique path analysis.

you need a better hobby...

obviously your "statistical analysis" is not working for you

[KraphtOne]

Let's say it's a 20 round limit no spoils game on Feudal Epic (I don't really like the other Feudal map). This is a really simple example, and helps me illustrate a concept.

First, assume the game will go to round limit. How many spaces do you want to attack?



Do you use expected worth calculations in your day-to-day games?

1. As many fucking spaces as you can as quickly as you can, the faster i get to that +3 bonus the better...

2. Yes i use expected worth calculation, but this is what we Laymen refer to as the "no-shit" principle

[#1_stunna]