What's the Plan, Sahel?

[DoomYoshi]

I'm working on a policy brief about Nigerian election reform. To help me parse the issue, I figured I would write out notes, and what better place to do it than here. My thesis is that electoral reform in Nigeria is a waste of time (and more importantly, American taxpayer dollars) since the real issues in Freedoms in Nigeria aren't being addressed. An election is just one aspect of a democratically functioning society.

European Union strategy for security and development in the Sahel

What the Critics are Saying:
"was developed without consulting the African party", focuses only on Mauritania, Mali and Niger (CEN-SAD has 28 members) and "does not take a holistic approach to the threats from the Sahel Saharan region. " (AGI Policy Brief N.4)

In other words, Europe is focusing on having safe places for tourists and less migrants.

What they are saying:
http://eeas.europa.eu/africa/docs/sahel_strategy_en.pdf
A regional and holistic strategy will overcome the problems.
-------------

Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Initiative

What the Critics are Saying: It's Just another Yankee Doodle Aid plan. Yet another regional alliance set up by the US.

In other words, the EU plan and the American plan both focus on Al Qaeda. Both totally ignore the persistence of Boko Haram. While this strategy may have some efficacy in Mali, Nigerian success is unlikely.

What they are saying:

show

------------------

United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel:
What the Critics are Saying: Peacekeepers can only be deployed so far.

In other words, the UN isn't seen as a solution by those living in the Sahel, only as a temporary fix or a push in the direction of the solution.

What they are saying: [quote=Ban "Big Papi Boom Boom" Ki-Moon]The challenges faced in the Sahel do not respect borders and, therefore, neither can the solutions[/quote]
https://www.un.org/wcm/content/site/undpa/main/enewsletter/pid/24728

-------------------

Right now, one of the issues (outside the obvious ones like terrorism, arms and drug trade etc.) is that there really isn't a stable government in the region to serve as an example and great US ally. Coups and violent revolutions have happened in Burkina Faso (2011), Chad (2013), Libya (2011), Mali (2012), Niger (2010), Sudan (2011), Central African Republic (2013), Tunisia (2011), Somalia (2011), Morocco (2012), Egypt (2013), Togo (2012), Cote d'Ivoire (2011), Guinea-Bissau (2009), Comoros (2008), Guinea (2013), Sao Tome and Principe (2009)
Eritrea and the Gambia are both too small to matter and a joke as far as human rights and media freedoms are concerned.

Senegal is an interesting case. It has both a stable government and economy, but any service and industry based economy is prey to the whims of international trade.
Benin,Djibouti, Sierra Leone are stable, but too small to serve in the regional leader role.
Liberia has been an American ally since forever, and has not helped matters.

Ghana is a great example of a country that could serve as an island of stability. It is primarily Christian, has a great resource-based economy and stable government.

I would propose that Nigeria can serve as both a regional hub, as it has a steady income source with oil, is well-located, and the presence of Muslim terrorists allows the Americans to move in without political repercussions. Electoral reform should just be one aspect of a broad plan, which emphasizes the positive which the Nigerian government has done over the last couple of years (see my Freedom Index Post for more examples).

Of course, the alternative is Kenya, and that is undesirable.

[BigBallinStalin]

"My thesis is that electoral reform in Nigeria is a waste of time (and more importantly, American taxpayer dollars) since the real issues in Freedoms in Nigeria aren't being addressed. An election is just one aspect of a democratically functioning society."

1. Should the US bomb them instead? I mean, why not? And what's the worst that could happen?

2. What alternatives should the Nigerian politicians consider? What are their goals here? Electoral reform could be great because people in general could like that kind of message, and if you can control the political process through other means, then why not go with reform? Might get more money from NGOs and White People Countries.

[DoomYoshi]

"My thesis is that electoral reform in Nigeria is a waste of time (and more importantly, American taxpayer dollars) since the real issues in Freedoms in Nigeria aren't being addressed. An election is just one aspect of a democratically functioning society."

1. Should the US bomb them instead? I mean, why not? And what's the worst that could happen?

2. What alternatives should the Nigerian politicians consider? What are their goals here? Electoral reform could be great because people in general could like that kind of message, and if you can control the political process through other means, then why not go with reform? Might get more money from NGOs and White People Countries.

If you spend a billion dollars on electoral reform, and do nothing to see that the rights of people are actually protected, how does that help Nigeria? Electoral reform is part of the solution. It isn't the whole solution.

[BigBallinStalin]

"My thesis is that electoral reform in Nigeria is a waste of time (and more importantly, American taxpayer dollars) since the real issues in Freedoms in Nigeria aren't being addressed. An election is just one aspect of a democratically functioning society."

1. Should the US bomb them instead? I mean, why not? And what's the worst that could happen?

2. What alternatives should the Nigerian politicians consider? What are their goals here? Electoral reform could be great because people in general could like that kind of message, and if you can control the political process through other means, then why not go with reform? Might get more money from NGOs and White People Countries.

If you spend a billion dollars on electoral reform, and do nothing to see that the rights of people are actually protected, how does that help Nigeria? Electoral reform is part of the solution. It isn't the whole solution.

While you're thinking about institutional reform (changes in the rules for Whatever), there's two things to consider: (1) coherence and (2) vulnerability.

Coherence is 'means to ends' analysis. But you have to ask, "whose ends, and whose means?" Different people face different choices and will reap different payoffs.

Vulnerability is mostly about opportunism--e.g. the underlined.

Then it depends on what your ideal government is. Can Nigeria move toward that ideal (coherence), and how will the status quo and newcomers interact during the changes (vulnerability)?

This is the frontier of development economics. We have a general idea of good institutions (private property rights, relatively free markets, rule of law, etc.), but we lack the know-how in implementing those changes. "Hey, Nigeria. Ya need some Rule of Law. Here's a list." Doesn't work that way.

[BigBallinStalin]

I've got nothing to lose from this plan, but I'd let the Sahel-ish part of Nigeria become more autonomous. Let them deal with their own problems.

If I was being more of a dictator, I'd allocate state funds to certain Sahel backers who'd provide the basic functions of government (courts, security) in the Sahel region. I'd set parameters on their actions, and have them checked every now and then by the Nigerian Supreme Court.

To win over people, I'd dump either (1) allocate greater discretion over the taxes of that region for that region's use, and/or (2) build public goods projects to keep the people content enough.

[Serbia]

If you need any help, let me know.

Bollocks.

[DoomYoshi]

I've got nothing to lose from this plan, but I'd let the Sahel-ish part of Nigeria become more autonomous. Let them deal with their own problems.

If I was being more of a dictator, I'd allocate state funds to certain Sahel backers who'd provide the basic functions of government (courts, security) in the Sahel region. I'd set parameters on their actions, and have them checked every now and then by the Nigerian Supreme Court.

To win over people, I'd dump either (1) allocate greater discretion over the taxes of that region for that region's use, and/or (2) build public goods projects to keep the people content enough.

Sahel is a super-region including Nigeria, not a particular corner of it.

[BigBallinStalin]

I've got nothing to lose from this plan, but I'd let the Sahel-ish part of Nigeria become more autonomous. Let them deal with their own problems.

If I was being more of a dictator, I'd allocate state funds to certain Sahel backers who'd provide the basic functions of government (courts, security) in the Sahel region. I'd set parameters on their actions, and have them checked every now and then by the Nigerian Supreme Court.

To win over people, I'd dump either (1) allocate greater discretion over the taxes of that region for that region's use, and/or (2) build public goods projects to keep the people content enough.

Sahel is a super-region including Nigeria, not a particular corner of it.

hence, "Sahel-ish part of Nigeria."

[DoomYoshi]

Ok, like the USA-ish part of Louisiana.

[notyou2]

Lewsyanna

[DoomYoshi]

Now might be the time to strike. A perfect American victory now would offset the last few months of losses.

[DoomYoshi]

Clearly, Donald Trump reads my posts, because he is doing all the things I suggested here. It's creepy.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/20/us ... hel-africa

[nietzsche]

reported OP

[DoomYoshi]

Well, if ObamaLlama had listened to me earlier, 35 deaths would have been avoided:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/ ... 27810.html

Burkina Faso, bordering Mali and Niger, has seen regular attacks - hundreds have been killed since the start of 2015 when violence began to spread across the Sahel region.