Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - Endgame

by **edocsil** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:07 am

Finally the Demons knew their foe. Gabriel walked the earth, returning the sinners and the fallen to the flock of Yahweh. To each he gave his forgiveness and each were saved. Gabriel bent down to heal a broken saint who slept fitfully on a dirty cot, but something distracted him. He turned, but too slowly. A silken strangling cord slipped around his neck and cut the air from his lungs. With great twists and leaps Gabriel tried to shake off his attacker, but his attacker was just as strong as he, and no mere mortal. As his vision began to fade the Demon bent close a whispered, "Listen to my name, it will be the last gift to you before you die" The Demon uttered his name with a hiss and Gabriel passed from the mortal plane.

Sometimes even the Angels died.

Jonty ~ Gabriel Archangel ~ Savior has been killed.

Day 7 has begun. 15 alive 8 to lynch. Deadline in ~ 2 weeks.

by **VioIet** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:01 am

Hmm, that kinda seemed to be a dumb kill from the Mafia. Why kill someone already under suspicion?

Anyway, I say we continue with pressuring aage today.

Vote aage

by **aage** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:52 am

VioIet wrote:Hmm, that kinda seemed to be a dumb kill from the Mafia. Why kill someone already under suspicion?

Anyway, I say we continue with pressuring aage today.

Vote aage

Pressure to what end?

by **DoomYoshi** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:38 am

Pressure to death. Any results from last night? I fully support an aage lynch.

by **aage** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:37 am

DoomYoshi wrote:Pressure to death. Any results from last night? I fully support an aage lynch.

You fully support to lynch a claimed doctor. Someone will likely call wifom, but don't you think it's a bit suspicious that the only other guy that was suspected just got killed? I suppose you really could be that ignorant. I almost regret protecting your ass last night.

VioIet's wording of "pressuring" seemed off, hence I asked. If she wanted me lynched, she should have said lynched. What do you want from me?

by **DoomYoshi** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:38 am

Well if the docswitch says you aren't the doc, I am inclined to believe him.

by **DRoZ** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:43 am

Why bother protecting Doom? Clearly there are much more important people to have protected, namely Jonty.

by **aage** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:51 am

DoomYoshi wrote:Well if the docswitch says you aren't the doc, I am inclined to believe him.

Who are you exactly talking about? The docswitch was Vodean, and he was scum.

DRoZ wrote:Why bother protecting Doom? Clearly there are much more important people to have protected, namely Jonty.

Most productive and most townish to me. With 30% accuracy rate and the amount of leads we have, power roles are not extremely relevant.

by **DoomYoshi** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:53 am

aage wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:Well if the docswitch says you aren't the doc, I am inclined to believe him.
Who are you exactly talking about? The docswitch was Vodean, and he was scum.

DRoZ wrote:Why bother protecting Doom? Clearly there are much more important people to have protected, namely Jonty.

Most productive and most townish to me. With 30% accuracy rate and the amount of leads we have, power roles are not extremely relevant.

Docswitches always come in pairs. This was discussed already.

by **Rodion** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:14 pm

Gregwolf, #7 is an angel. Flavour suggests Raphael. I'm not sure if he's a "doctor", but he certainly is a protective role.

Yoshi, I had another theory regarding the doc switches since Rishaed flipped mafia doc. Maybe Vodean's catch was that if he turned our doc off, he would also be turning their own doc off? I'm not sure, but I do not think we have a town doc switch. And the doc switch never said Aage was not that doc. I also fail to see how the doc switch would know the identity of the doc (you're getting me confused here, buddy).

Anyway, back to the pool.

The original pool (4 out of 12):

gregwolf (12) ~ Saf, jonty, soundman, violet, aage, JG, Nag/Lovo, DRoZ, jak, ??? (Jak or Victor/Yoshi), Strike, Vodean

Post-flips pool (2 out of 6): Safari, Yoshi (if Jak's ??? vote is considered his), Violet, Aage, Droz and Strike

With Safari's claim of Michael and subsequent innocent results on Yoshi and Violet, our most accurate prediction is that we have 2 scum among Aage, Droz and Strike.

Strike's only scummy action was redirecting Saf's guilty away from Soundman: possibly an innocent mistake, but not sure. Aage and Droz are far scummier, especially the first, but it's still hard to know for sure which of the 3 is innocent. I suggest Strike and Droz claim their actions before Safari claims his.

by **Rodion** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

DRoZ wrote:Why bother protecting Doom? Clearly there are much more important people to have protected, namely Jonty.

Any chance you watched someone important, namely Jonty?

by **DoomYoshi** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:52 pm

I guess it's true that I don't know for sure how the doctors and docswitches function. Disregard the point, and let's go with the "on-the-listedness".

The NK suggests that mafia's kill failed and an SK is trying to narrow the list down for the same reason town is targetting the list. Or that the list info is wrong and the scum want us to start mislynching ASAP. Ideas?

by **F1fth** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 5:35 pm

Vote Strike based on Ockham's Razor.

Are we really expected to believe that for no reason at all, we had a busdriver happen to target two scum on the night that a cop investigates one of them? Possibly, but I can think of no earthy reason why soundman and rishaed would be "chosen" unless strike already knew what they were. A random selection just doesn't explain it in on Night 4... especially from a mafia vet like strike.

I highly doubt that strike has a busdriving power at all. In fact, if strike were scum it would be trivial to throw rishaed under the bus to give both soundman and himself some credibility and a couple extra nights to make recruits. That's right, I'm calling strike out as the recruiter.

@DRoZ - I would really like to know if your action was successful last night.

by **strike wolf** on Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:43 pm

As a "mafia vet", I would never risk a powerful role like a recruiter to save a role blocker/vote stealer in exchange for a mafia doc. If it failed than it would cost an extra mafia and may be even Rishaed anyways through wifom. it is simply not worth the risk. I did explain my reasons for switching them if you wish to go back and look.

by **aage** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:03 am

DoomYoshi wrote:I guess it's true that I don't know for sure how the doctors and docswitches function. Disregard the point, and let's go with the "on-the-listedness".

The NK suggests that mafia's kill failed and an SK is trying to narrow the list down for the same reason town is targetting the list. Or that the list info is wrong and the scum want us to start mislynching ASAP. Ideas?

edocsil wrote:Finally the Demons knew their foe. Gabriel walked the earth, returning the sinners and the fallen to the flock of Yahweh. To each he gave his forgiveness and each were saved. Gabriel bent down to heal a broken saint who slept fitfully on a dirty cot, but something distracted him. He turned, but too slowly. A silken strangling cord slipped around his neck and cut the air from his lungs. With great twists and leaps Gabriel tried to shake off his attacker, but his attacker was just as strong as he, and no mere mortal. As his vision began to fade the Demon bent close a whispered, "Listen to my name, it will be the last gift to you before you die" The Demon uttered his name with a hiss and Gabriel passed from the mortal plane.

Sometimes even the Angels died.

Jonty ~ Gabriel Archangel ~ Savior has been killed.

Day 7 has begun. 15 alive 8 to lynch. Deadline in ~ 2 weeks.

That theory cannot possibly be serious. During the past six nights, for some mysterious reason there have been no kills from a SK. The scene does not mention any failed kill attempt. The scene clearly mentions Demons.

If there were a SK, we would have known, and the scene would not have mentioned Demons as the acting party.

At this point I actually wouldn't rule out the possibility of a mafia framer. If there is one, this is a very obvious and bold play by the mafia, though.

Strike, claim action?

by **gregwolf121** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:55 am

okay, so at this point i would agree that actions are needed,

droz did you watch jonty

by **pancakemix** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:14 pm

F1fth wrote:Vote Strike based on Ockham's Razor.

Are we really expected to believe that for no reason at all, we had a busdriver happen to target two scum on the night that a cop investigates one of them? Possibly, but I can think of no earthy reason why soundman and rishaed would be "chosen" unless strike already knew what they were. A random selection just doesn't explain it in on Night 4... especially from a mafia vet like strike.

I highly doubt that strike has a busdriving power at all. In fact, if strike were scum it would be trivial to throw rishaed under the bus to give both soundman and himself some credibility and a couple extra nights to make recruits. That's right, I'm calling strike out as the recruiter.

@DRoZ - I would really like to know if your action was successful last night.

I agree with this, though I wouldn't be so certain about him being the recruiter. Might you explain that jump? Or is it just what seems most likely to you?

Vote Strike

by / on Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:15 pm

Rodion wrote: I suggest Strike and Droz claim their actions before Safari claims his.

Safari has been gone since two hours after night 6 began, I suppose he could have gotten an action in, and it may be worth delaying the day to hear from him, but we can't rely on it.

I also agree that a mafia doc is a small loss with the town vig already dead, roleblocker seems to have been a key role to mafia strategy.
It also seems less likely that droz is scum since he had lost his vote and was blocked, presumably by Soundman on night four/day five and night five/day six.
That is, of course if we assume the vote steal/roleblock are connected actions like doc/roleblock in the case of a jailkeeper.

I would say that, by evidence; strike is plausibly scum, and aage is almost certainly scum.
Let us not forget that aage was roleblocked on night 5/day 6 too, but his vote wasn't stolen, that night the demon's attacks mysteriously missed their mark, a flavor that sounds more like roleblocking than doc save in my opinion.

If strike is a more likely recruiter than aage though, I am willing to lynch him first.

vote strike for now

by **safariguy5** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:27 pm

I'm here. I'd like to hear Droz's action before I claim mine.

by **Rodion** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:36 pm

safariguy5 wrote:I'm here. I'd like to hear Droz's action before I claim mine.

I'd also wait for Strike's if I were you.

by **strike wolf** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:57 pm

Give me one plausible reason that would point to me being recruiter beyond Firth calling me out as a recruiter with no other evidence than that there is a recruiter in the game. All you have on me is that I claim to have switched two mafia which has been found convenient by a few people. I gave a reason why it would be stupid as a recruiter for me to take that gamble.

If you want my opinion, I believe both aage and doom are anti-town and I'm going to say that either doom has been recruited since night 1 or he is the godfather. why? Because the SK argument beyond being exceedingly unlikely with the limited kills seems more of a distraction than anything legitimate. Secondly, he has pressed a false dilemma in that he has been proven town by the cop. essentially arguing that he is town because if he was mafia he would have to show up guilty. we know there are at least two exceptions to that. 1. He is human and has been recruited since he was investigated. or 2. He is evil and has some investigative proof ability ala godfather. now obviously no role whose objedtive does not involve getfing themselves lynched is going to self incriminate but there is a big difference between pointing out unlikelihood of a scenario and toting it around like it is an absolute scenario.
Aage simply because of the unlikelihood of two doctors, evidence that he is not the doctor and previously stated arguments.

by **Rodion** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:12 am

Don't get me wrong: if you're indeed a town busdriver I think you've played pretty well and just got unlucky with the Soundman save. At one point, your top 4 list of scumreads matched mine perfectly (Aage, JG, Vodean and Jonty), so this isn't really about saying you've made mistakes/slips. You got on a list that's been narrowed down and somewhat has you at 66% scum plus you saved the blocker/stealer. Strike, do you understand why we reckon you're more likely than Safari to be mafia? I'd like Droz and you to claim before Saf because I trust Saf the most. Can you comply?

For the record, I don't trust Yoshi as well (slight chance of being godfather + reasonable chance of having been subverted), but he is not priority until we get one or two lynches on Droz, Aage and/or you.

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:30 am

Well, the careful amongst you will notice that my "SK" hypothesis had 2 components. Option b was that since town was looking in the wrong direction, mafia would capitalize on this and speed up the mislynches as much as possible. By refuting the thought of an SK, and by aage and strike refuting it so vehemently, I think it narrows down that it was indeed the correct interpretation.

Interesting that both Rodion and strike have ruled me out as being the recruiter. I think we need a list of possible recruitment candidates and possible recruitees.

Strike is definitely scum. His last post indicates this, since he doesn't seem interested in finding out who the recruiter is.

If I was mafia, I would have recruited saf last night, unless I was worried the watcher was watching saf. But if the watcher can just be blocked anyways, there is 99% chance that saf was recruited.

by **strike wolf** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:36 pm

"Strike is definitely scum. His last post indicates this, since he doesn't seem interested in finding out who the recruiter is."

Don't put words in my mouth. I never said I wasn't concerned with finding the recruiter. I have said that I have been switching humans over angels because I believe that the recruiter is more dangerous than the killer. What I don't pretend is to be able to do is find an imagined reason to say ____ is probably recruiter over someone else. I believe you are more likely to be godfather because of how you have handled getting an innocent vote but that's because being the Godfather would allow you to be shown as innocent on investigation. If you have any tells that you would think make the recruiter stand out over other mafia please share.

As far as the SK idea, neither part seems likely at all and I stick to what I said as looking to be little more than a distraction.

As far as my actions, yes sorry, I was going to post them last night and forgot to while making my post.

Night 3: Rodion (Mr. Squirrel) w/aage

Night 5: Myself w/Pancakemix

Night 6: Iliad w/Aage

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:07 pm

"Neither part seems likely"

Ok. So with 7 players on the list alive, and 2 more mafia, town has a 5/7 chance of mislynch.

By killing jonty, we now have only a 2/6 chance of mislynch.

Why would mafia lower the chance of mislynch unless they were convinced town was going to lynch the "wrong" people?

Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - Endgame

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