JK9++ ENDGAME Mafia Wins

by **betiko** on Wed Sep 05, 2012 5:40 am

nice scene count!!

I guess we won't know which one he murdered?

by **DoomYoshi** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:50 am

pancakemix wrote:

Pancake mix, vanilla townie, has died.

Day 3 begin.

by **jonty125** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:58 am

Well with the SK dead, T MUST be an odd number.

So if T=1, we have, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, left alive.
If T=3, we have, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, left alive.
If T=5, we have Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, left alive.
If T=7 OR GREATER, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, left alive.

I know that the setup for T=5, and T=7, is the same but I've put it in to share as much information out there as possible.

by **trinicardinal** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:54 am

jonty125 wrote:Well with the SK dead, T MUST be an odd number.

So if T=1, we have, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, left alive.
If T=3, we have, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, left alive.
If T=5, we have Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, left alive.
If T=7 OR GREATER, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, left alive.

I know that the setup for T=5, and T=7, is the same but I've put it in to share as much information out there as possible.

Agreed that T must be an odd number, but there is one slight difference with the T5,T7 situation jonty... with T=5 we have 2 town power roles, with T=7 we have no town power roles. so here's hoping we have a T= 5 or T=3 situation.... because that will give town some extra information at least. vodean tripped my radars and his voting Count turned out to be quite lucky for us but I think that was mere luck from his part. based on this -

vodean wrote:this game is moving far to slowly for me to be interested enough to go back and read. unvote vote CB so we can move on. i realize that i am going to be pressured a lot tomorrow, but thats ok. cop, you are welcome to investigate me, but dont out yourself when you find out that i am town. just let me die.

Again I say its scummy. If he is truly a townie and is not interested in going back to read then he is no help to us. he's just as likely to lynch town because he is bored and its only by good fortune that something like that did not happen with Count. He knows he's gonna get pressure today obviously and he's prepared for it so I'm gonna get the ball rolling on him VOTE: vodean

by **jonty125** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:49 pm

trinicardinal wrote:
jonty125 wrote:Well with the SK dead, T MUST be an odd number.

So if T=1, we have, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, left alive.
If T=3, we have, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, left alive.
If T=5, we have Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, left alive.
If T=7 OR GREATER, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, left alive.

I know that the setup for T=5, and T=7, is the same but I've put it in to share as much information out there as possible.

Agreed that T must be an odd number, but there is one slight difference with the T5,T7 situation jonty... with T=5 we have 2 town power roles, with T=7 we have no town power roles.

Ah, Yes.

by **vodean** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:57 pm

trinicardinal wrote:
jonty125 wrote:Well with the SK dead, T MUST be an odd number.

So if T=1, we have, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, left alive.
If T=3, we have, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, left alive.
If T=5, we have Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, left alive.
If T=7 OR GREATER, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, left alive.

I know that the setup for T=5, and T=7, is the same but I've put it in to share as much information out there as possible.

Agreed that T must be an odd number, but there is one slight difference with the T5,T7 situation jonty... with T=5 we have 2 town power roles, with T=7 we have no town power roles. so here's hoping we have a T= 5 or T=3 situation.... because that will give town some extra information at least. vodean tripped my radars and his voting Count turned out to be quite lucky for us but I think that was mere luck from his part. based on this -

vodean wrote:this game is moving far to slowly for me to be interested enough to go back and read. unvote vote CB so we can move on. i realize that i am going to be pressured a lot tomorrow, but thats ok. cop, you are welcome to investigate me, but dont out yourself when you find out that i am town. just let me die.

Again I say its scummy. If he is truly a townie and is not interested in going back to read then he is no help to us. he's just as likely to lynch town because he is bored and its only by good fortune that something like that did not happen with Count. He knows he's gonna get pressure today obviously and he's prepared for it so I'm gonna get the ball rolling on him VOTE: vodean

i understand your position. there is really no defense i could possibly offer.

by **thechuck51** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:10 pm

betiko wrote:nice scene count!!

I guess we won't know which one he murdered?

It was in his scene...

Count Belisle wrote:The crowd was angry,
"Why I even come back to this lousy town? Why they keep staring at me? I can't reach my knife."
the rope just kept getting tighter, "How far up am I?" he wondered. The knife in his Dickie's pocket just at his finger tips, but not close enough. Is that one of them in the crowd? behind Violet, next to Iron Butterfly. "is that Campin?" it can't be I slit his throat,

by **betiko** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:31 pm

sorry guys but why did none of us die last night? mafia got blocked? the mod didn t say anything, or i didn't catch the garbage day reference...

by **DoomYoshi** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:46 pm

Any dead player want to replace thechuck? He says he is getting busier.

by **thechuck51** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:02 pm

betiko wrote:sorry guys but why did none of us die last night? mafia got blocked? the mod didn t say anything, or i didn't catch the garbage day reference...

pancake is dead.

by **pancakemix** on Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:40 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:Any dead player want to replace thechuck? He says he is getting busier.

I suppose I can, seeing as I'm up to date.

And yes, I died.

by **betiko** on Sat Sep 08, 2012 5:06 am

thechuck51 wrote:
betiko wrote:sorry guys but why did none of us die last night? mafia got blocked? the mod didn t say anything, or i didn't catch the garbage day reference...

pancake is dead.

oops sorry, saw the video, but not the line written bellow!

by **betiko** on Sat Sep 08, 2012 5:18 am

enemies dead:
Count belisle, Serial Kiler Lynched D2
Campin_killer, Mafia Goon Died N1

townies dead:
Pancakemix, Vanilla Townie, Died N2
Lord Voldemort, Vanilla Townie Died N1
Redhedge, Vanilla Townie Lynched D1

unclaimed:
Violet
trinicardinal
Iron Butterfly
Jonty
thechuck51
Betiko
vodean
samgrossy

possible configurations (in red the ones that are now impossible)

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver

TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

this is to illustrate the fact that T is an odd number. i'm pretty sure T is at least 3 because there are already 3 dead townies. enemies are either 3 or 4 + 3 townies known means that if enemies are 4; T cannot be equal to 1. now that i think about it, T=1 is mathematically impossible.

so it's 3, 5, 7 for sure.

by **jonty125** on Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:35 am

betiko wrote: now that i think about it, T=1 is mathematically impossible.

Can you explain further why T can't equal one because there would be Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT for the mafia team. And six power roles and according to your list none of the living players have claimed making T=1, just about possible.

by **betiko** on Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:29 am

Well count. 7 roles are dice determined, 6 not. If there are 4 mafia/serial killers pre-determined, and we have 3 dead vts means that t=1 is not possible

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:42 am

Pancakemix replaces thechuck!

by **jonty125** on Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:01 am

betiko wrote:Well count. 7 roles are dice determined, 6 not. If there are 4 mafia/serial killers pre-determined, and we have 3 dead vts means that t=1 is not possible

Wrong. 7 random numbers are generated. This doesn't mean seven non-VT roles. Look at the setups when T=1, you get 4 non-VT roles.

by **betiko** on Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:53 pm

jonty125 wrote:
betiko wrote:Well count. 7 roles are dice determined, 6 not. If there are 4 mafia/serial killers pre-determined, and we have 3 dead vts means that t=1 is not possible

Wrong. 7 random numbers are generated. This doesn't mean seven non-VT roles. Look at the setups when T=1, you get 4 non-VT roles.

13 players total; 7 randomly generated. how many are therefore not randomly generated? 6.
the mafia/serial killer are either 3 or 4 out of those 6. the remaining 2 or 3 from those 6 are VTs.
T=1 means there are 4 mafia/scum, therefore 2 from the 6 non randomly generated. we know for fact that there are at least 3vts. so yes, it is true that there is a small chance that no one else is vt, i don't believe it. this game is stalling because it's full of vts.

we got to discover 2 scums out of the 7 that are not ourselves, not too bad. I didn't vote by the way, and i think i'm gonna vote jonty. It's just a little vibe.

by **pancakemix** on Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:40 pm

Confirm

So T is an an odd number, as has been stated. We cannot, however, determine the value of T further because of this:

Once the powerroles for town and the scum have been determined, add a number of Vanilla Townies to equal 13 players.

So there is a number of vanillas that are determined by the outcome of the numbers, specifically by the value of T. We'll call the extra townies Tx. We can determine that if we know what T is, but initially we can narrow it down to being in the rang of 2 (if T=1 OR 3) and 4 (if T=6) because of the number of scum roles also generated by the value of T (We'll call that Tm). (Also, since we know that T is odd, we can narrow that down further to Tx being equal to either 2 or 3) Here's the formula:

So for example let's say T=3. Tm then equals 4, and Tx ought to equal 2. Let's check:

2=13-(4+7)
2=13-11
2=2

I probably didn't need to go into all that mathy stuff. I already did, so too bad. I'm just putting the determinant of the value into an easily usable format. Now that that's understood we can quantify our possibilities:

T=1: Still possible. Not terribly likely, but still possible. If T=1, all of our VTs are dead and we have 2 scum power roles to deal with with 6 power roles. Again, not very likely.

T=3: 2 VTs and 4 PRs vs. a goon and a JOAT. This is statistically the most likely

T=5 5 VTs and 2 PRs vs. a One-Shot (could now be vanilla) Bus Driver. 2nd most likely.

T=7 Scum same as above, 7 VTs, no PRs. I'm ruling this out because there is a less than 1% chance of it happening.

My statistics are based on 7 fair coin flips (condensing any power role number into one "side of a coin"). Since we can rule out any even number of outcomes resulting in a VT, all of the probabilities are statistically higher. I have no idea how to figure out what those probabilities are.

And I know I got into mathy stuff again. This is more directly useful, though.

by **betiko** on Sun Sep 09, 2012 10:45 pm

i don t know the probability; but T=1 is impossible for any VT who read it. for PR, it is almost impossible still very unlikely.
I think it's most probably T=5 because nothing is happening here. no one has a power role input to give yet, and i think the town is almost all vt.

by **VioIet** on Mon Sep 10, 2012 2:22 am

vodean wrote:i think the problem is that the game is very slow moving, and i forgot what had happened earlier and didnt feel it was worth it to go back. count is at L-2 and doesnt need my vote right now anyway. maybe i will hammer or something

This post is just incredibly scummy. Town or not, vodean doesn't really deserve to be in this game if he doesn't want to read the thread.

Vote Vodean

by **trinicardinal** on Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:06 am

betiko wrote:i don t know the probability; but T=1 is impossible for any VT who read it. for PR, it is almost impossible still very unlikely.

Huh? I'm afraid I don't follow you betiko. all in all though I have to say this game is pretty short of major discussion overall...

@pcm yeah you delved into maths again but this is by far the most suitable maths discussion for the thread thus far I think. I'm still wating to hear more from vodean though. his latest post sounds like he's scum who has given up quite frankly.

by **betiko** on Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:26 am

trinicardinal wrote:
betiko wrote:i don t know the probability; but T=1 is impossible for any VT who read it. for PR, it is almost impossible still very unlikely.

Huh? I'm afraid I don't follow you betiko. all in all though I have to say this game is pretty short of major discussion overall...

@pcm yeah you delved into maths again but this is by far the most suitable maths discussion for the thread thus far I think. I'm still wating to hear more from vodean though. his latest post sounds like he's scum who has given up quite frankly.

cause if you are a VT, that would make 4 VTs for sure. T=1 has 4 mafia/serial killer roles + 4 VTs (for someone who is a VT) = 8 players. so 5 to be determined roles, which would mean T has to be at least 2 otherwise it doesn't add up. T being an odd number because serial killers are only included in odd T numbers, T has to be 3,5 or 7.

And yes, I don't really know where I'm going with the jonty case, I'm ok to go after vodean. I think he's in his usual gamestyle, but he's not putting any effort into anything.

unvote, vote vodean

can we have a vote count please?

by **trinicardinal** on Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:29 am

betiko wrote:
trinicardinal wrote:
betiko wrote:i don t know the probability; but T=1 is impossible for any VT who read it. for PR, it is almost impossible still very unlikely.

Huh? I'm afraid I don't follow you betiko. all in all though I have to say this game is pretty short of major discussion overall...

@pcm yeah you delved into maths again but this is by far the most suitable maths discussion for the thread thus far I think. I'm still wating to hear more from vodean though. his latest post sounds like he's scum who has given up quite frankly.

cause if you are a VT, that would make 4 VTs for sure. T=1 has 4 mafia/serial killer roles + 4 VTs (for someone who is a VT) = 8 players. so 5 to be determined roles, which would mean T has to be at least 2 otherwise it doesn't add up. T being an odd number because serial killers are only included in odd T numbers, T has to be 3,5 or 7.

And yes, I don't really know where I'm going with the jonty case, I'm ok to go after vodean. I think he's in his usual gamestyle, but he's not putting any effort into anything.

unvote, vote vodean

can we have a vote count please?

ohh... now I understand your statement betiko... thanks for explaining

by **jonty125** on Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:58 am

I think vodean is at L-2, vote no lynch this is just a house for my vote, as I forgot to vote already today.

JK9++ ENDGAME Mafia Wins

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