Office Mafia ENDGAME!! TOWN WINS!!

by **jonty125** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 2:00 pm

Mod Notice

MoB should return in the next 24 hours he's has been ill and out of town (info from vacation thread)

by **drunkmonkey** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 2:08 pm

new guy1 wrote:i dont think DM is scum at all. and anyways, we can get the cop to check him out tonight if we think of him as scum.

This is from D2, after Nebu threw a vote on me. Newguy immediately tosses it aside, and tries to move on to a different case. At the time, I took the second part of the sentence as trying to direct the cop. With new information, this strikes me as exactly how a cop who got an innocent result would act.

I'm still trying to develop a case, but I'm being careful, since I haven't really been successful in this game. :oops:

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:41 pm

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Well, CLEVER...you are beginning to seem more town.

I would almost be willing to substitute MoB for CLEVER on my list...but only because MoB is extremely quiet right now.

However, I think name has more than put up enough evidence to show that he's just trying to confuse town by throwing out alternate options that really don't exist as options at all:

1. Is newguy1 really the cop? Yes. There is a chance there could be NO cop in this game, but I'll go under the assumption that he is. He's trying to throw us off on a wild chase, and introduce doubt as to the claim.
2. Vote no lynch to get more info? newguy1 is dead after tonight...what info will that give us? Right, he says it won't work after saying it...but he's still throwing the idea out there as a "possible" option. It's not an option at all.
3. He also threw out there that maybe newguy and drunkmonkey were mafia. Under the guise of "conspiracy theory"...but again, trying to give us all a reason to doubt what we know.

Remember, mafia's only goal is to cause doubt and questions. Name is trying to do this, but I don't think he is succeeding...

ya I know he is failing

So we can't test new guys claim so im gonna believe it only cause in every game I have been in no matter how small always had a cop
I feel like its vital to a mafia game
So that clears DM and then there are three options
Neb name and mob and out of all name looks the scummiest to me like I've already said this is why my vote is on him

by **Iron Butterfly** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:44 pm

Go Team Go...oh..wait ..Im dead.

by **new guy1** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:01 pm

haha, sorry IB, but i also believe that name is mafia, and i would be willing to hammer if we can get another vote on him. i believe that my suspicions were confirmed as (even though it was only a small window and they might not have been on) he was not hammered at L1 within about an hour and 20 mins. i do not know if they just werent on, but i believe this is more evidence, and as he is the best suspect anyways i believe he should be lynched. im willing to hammer if someone else votes and we give him a last chance to respond to the arguement, although i see no way to counter so much evidence.

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:23 pm

IB this ones for you buddy!!!!

by **new guy1** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:33 pm

Some7hingCLEVER wrote:IB this ones for you buddy!!!!

+1 haha

by **new guy1** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:44 pm

i also believe that name is at least mafia. Mob is sick (his game is paused as a result of it) and so he most likely is not posting for that reason... just saying as i felt i should throw that out there.

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:15 pm

Ya he posted in the vacation thread

by **nàme** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:43 pm

ok. hammering before drunkmonkey or mob can think this through is bad.

the ONLY reason why a no vote would work is if mafia doesnt kill cop and he gets info on someone else. if we do go for no vote, few things can happen: (A)
1) newguy1 gets killed and we have drunkmonkey as confirmed good.
2) drunkmonkey or other townie gets killed and newguy1 gets info on me (or someone else in question).

lets say we vote me with no hesistation: (B)
1) town loses
2) town kills one mafia member and the other is still out there, possibly amongst yourself voting.

so, lets make a chart as to why we should keep me alive, with 10 being optimal outcome.

* | A | B |
1 | 5 | 0 |
2 | 10| 5 |

if we go with option A, we either get 2/5 shot of killing scum with no doctor information or 2/5 shot with doctor information. if we go with option B, we either get 1/4 shot to kill someone or we lose the game. not exactly the best bet in my mind. anyone have any counter arguments to keep that alive or at least rearrange it?

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 7:24 pm

Good points name
One thing though
Say I chose one of the three of you at random
The chances of it being mafia is 66 percent
But with you...you have been dropping so many scum tells u feel it's a higher chance of u being mafia than picking random

Don't know if that made sense but that's what i think

by **new guy1** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 7:27 pm

nàme wrote:ok. hammering before drunkmonkey or mob can think this through is bad.

the ONLY reason why a no vote would work is if mafia doesnt kill cop and he gets info on someone else. if we do go for no vote, few things can happen: (A)
1) newguy1 gets killed and we have drunkmonkey as confirmed good.
2) drunkmonkey or other townie gets killed and newguy1 gets info on me (or someone else in question).

lets say we vote me with no hesistation: (B)
1) town loses
2) town kills one mafia member and the other is still out there, possibly amongst yourself voting.

so, lets make a chart as to why we should keep me alive, with 10 being optimal outcome.

* | A | B |
1 | 5 | 0 |
2 | 10| 5 |

if we go with option A, we either get 2/5 shot of killing scum with no doctor information or 2/5 shot with doctor information. if we go with option B, we either get 1/4 shot to kill someone or we lose the game. not exactly the best bet in my mind. anyone have any counter arguments to keep that alive or at least rearrange it?

I was not planning on hammering without consulting DM or Mob, I just said i would be willing to hammer. As far as Im concerned, it looks like a pretty good chart... that doesnt prove your innocence. As far as im concerned, if we cant nail mafia today, then we most likely wont have much to go off of tomorrow, and so I see no reason why we should not lynch someone who is showing up scum to everyone except for two unconfirmed people when we could take a 33/66 chance that he is actually the mafia. As far as I am concerned, Im going to most likely die tonight anyways, and so my information will not get to the town's ears tomorrow anyways, and so I might as well say that I believe Name and either Neb/Mob are scum, as I believe CLEVER's claim and I know DM is town, and so that leaves you three.

These are just my opinions, but if somebody is able to give me a reason why we should not lynch Name today and instead put it off and bring the game down to a 3v2 where it is a 40/60 chance we are hitting mafia, then give it to me and i will consider it. besides that, my vote is as good as cast.

fastposted- i get what you are saying CLEVER, but it is a 50/50 hes mafia in this game, and the only way to confirm it is to lynch.

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 7:38 pm

Ya new guy this is why I have kept my vote on him lol
I'm glad someone sees it like I do

by **nàme** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 8:13 pm

okay. lets put it this way. mafia can think of two things on how to go on this. newguy is the obvious choice, but he isnt very experienced. drunkmonkey is much more experienced and therefore would be more likely to pick off tells. drunkmonkey is more likely to get two of five people cleared just going based off of text as opposed to your one definite view of someone. so if you dont vote me, then view me at night, you will see i am clear and can vouch for me. that gives 3/5 people we know who are good, assuming you believe clevers claim is good. that is good for a win. however, if you get killed, the remaining townies will be able to pick apart who is scum or not based on me being framed (scum), then neb or mob being the 50/50 shot when it is down to 1/3. the last man should be giving off immense amount of tells, like i supposedly was (am?)

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:19 pm

We can't just assume u won't get framed cause we can't control mafia
So really I feel like we have to lynch someone
Like I said no lynch is a last resort but right now I have a pretty good read on name and feel he is the scummiest and one more thing... Does the post by name before this look wierd it almost seems like he is begging us to let him live to show he is good...thats where lol idk I might have read that wrong

by **MoB Deadly** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:09 pm

catching up from page 16

by **new guy1** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:18 pm

MoB Deadly wrote:catching up from page 16

you have plenty of time to do it. welcome back!

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:20 pm

Agreed welcome back

by **MoB Deadly** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:27 pm

Nebuchadnezer wrote:2. MoB Deadly - Noah “team player” – He was pretty adamant on lynching our Jailer…based on the name? Really? He’s an outside chance at mafia, however, he’s more experienced and wouldn't have 2 mafia hit the hammer on a lynch…maybe

I didnt vote him based on his character name alone. I thought it was an easy cover up for a Mafia Roleblocker

Name - who is the prime suspect right now. I honestly can't get a read on him. He has a really odd posting style, like everything he says pretty much screams "I am scum! I am scum!" but I know quite a few players that do this on CC, and I am just nervous that mafia could be targeting him for an easy lynch. I am fine with following the cop and DM since they are the only players we can trust right now. If they want to go name I am 100% on board, innocent or not, hes dropped scumtell after scumtell.

We need to make sure we are not rushing this right now though. Lets look at the numbers.
6 players left.
Probably (minimum) of 2 mafia.
Right now 4v2.
If we mislynch today, it will be 3v2.
They get the nightkill.
2v2 GG mafia wins.

A No lynch won't get us anywhere though. The mafia will kill the cop, so we will have NO extra information than we do today, we will just have one less poster. Since there is no deadline, I would like to look at vote patterns more and try to find some scum tells on other players while we have the time.

by **MoB Deadly** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:28 pm

By the way... I am still sick.... this sucks...

by **new guy1** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:05 pm

MoB Deadly wrote:By the way... I am still sick.... this sucks...

im sorry to hear that, if i make a case on you, i will try to put it into the simplest of terms

by **nàme** on Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:30 pm

MoB Deadly wrote:
Nebuchadnezer wrote:2. MoB Deadly - Noah “team player” – He was pretty adamant on lynching our Jailer…based on the name? Really? He’s an outside chance at mafia, however, he’s more experienced and wouldn't have 2 mafia hit the hammer on a lynch…maybe

If we mislynch today, it will be 3v2.
They get the nightkill.
2v2 GG mafia wins.

A No lynch won't get us anywhere though. The mafia will kill the cop, so we will have NO extra information than we do today, we will just have one less poster. Since there is no deadline, I would like to look at vote patterns more and try to find some scum tells on other players while we have the time.

thats the only thing i like most about a no lynch though. voting patterns will be even more noticeable with 3v2, especially since we would have three presumed goods and two unknown characters.

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:22 am

nàme wrote:
MoB Deadly wrote:
Nebuchadnezer wrote:2. MoB Deadly - Noah “team player” – He was pretty adamant on lynching our Jailer…based on the name? Really? He’s an outside chance at mafia, however, he’s more experienced and wouldn't have 2 mafia hit the hammer on a lynch…maybe

If we mislynch today, it will be 3v2.
They get the nightkill.
2v2 GG mafia wins.

A No lynch won't get us anywhere though. The mafia will kill the cop, so we will have NO extra information than we do today, we will just have one less poster. Since there is no deadline, I would like to look at vote patterns more and try to find some scum tells on other players while we have the time.

thats the only thing i like most about a no lynch though. voting patterns will be even more noticeable with 3v2, especially since we would have three presumed goods and two unknown characters.

once again it just seems like your begging for a no lynch by saying we have a better chance if we do yada-yada-yada lol. i see the points your making dont get me wrong but other people have made the points as well including me. it just seems like your trying to emphasize what there saying with "glitter and sparkles" to make it seem better than it really is

look if we no lynch we will lose a town and honestly have nowhere to go when day comes considering they will kill new guy and im pretty sure they will kill new guy (im not saying this cause ime mafia

) cause he is cop. were gonna lose him anyway so whats the point in not lynching someone today cause we have the same chances today that we will after night so whats the point in puting it off??

by **nàme** on Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:27 am

for one thing we get time. for another we get better odds of voting scum. 1vs2 the mafia will be shitting himself

by **drunkmonkey** on Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:35 am

nàme wrote:for one thing we get time. for another we get better odds of voting scum. 1vs2 the mafia will be shitting himself

Time? The deadline's still almost 2 weeks away. Pushing for a no-lynch to get more time doesn't make sense.

I'm also curious how you got 1v2 odds.

Office Mafia ENDGAME!! TOWN WINS!!

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