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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:31 pm

EBWOP:

Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:You are mostly correct here, I wrote my post at uni and had my notes for the game at home, my mistake. However, the fact that the doc did not speak up immediately on day 2 and say he was blocked speaks against the mafia roleblocker possibility you raised. People are usually told if they're blocked, though I am aware that it's not always the case.


That depends on the game. They are mandatorily informed when they are expected to get reports of their actions (cop, tracker, watcher), but other roles might not be told. Considering the existence of vanillas (2 dead, some softclaimed), mafia probably has only 1 or 2 power roles, but roleblocker is as viable as any other pick.

MeDeFe wrote:And if the person claims a powerrole and refuses to hammer?


Dude, it's not the first time I've went through this, come on!

Either town believes the power role and moves on or town does not believe and lynches the person that refused to hammer (we can only get a bomb hammered by scum if we present a solid threat).

MeDeFe wrote:Or even claims VT and refuses to hammer?


Lynch him no questions asked. There's no good reason for an elected and claimed VT not to hammer.

MeDeFe wrote:You're saying I'm being misleading and only considering the worst case scenario. You're wrong. What I'm describing is actually the most likely scenario. The least likely scenario is that we FOS a scum into fakeclaiming, see through it and force them to hammer you under threat of lynch. If that's not dependent on contingencies I don't know what is. The patterns we get are also only marginally useful, consider how many people are refusing to participate in it at this point. 7 people have cast a FOS on someone by the latest count, one of them is SW who has expressed his dislike of your idea. You want to get useful patterns out of that sample size?


Briefly disregarding 3rd-parties if you allow me, by definition, a mafia game only lasts until town holds the majority. With mafia being the minority, every lynch that is not originated by a cop report/counterclaim/person-caught-lying is going to be unlikely (below 50%) to get scum. We still lynch anyway, don't we?

Why?

Because the benefit of getting 1 mafia is bigger than the harm of losing 1 town. (I feel like I've already explained this, perhaps in Terminator?) This benefit-harm discrepancy is what allows town to constantly risk lynches that are only 30-40% accurate, much like you'd be willing to bet on something that gives you 30-40% odds if the reward is 4 times bigger than what you bet.

Refusing to get lynches/explosions is statistically suboptimal for town as you're forfeiting a town-induced lynch and giving mafia more room for NKs.

I've said this multiple times. Jimfinn, one of 2 players that are as confirmed as it gets, understood it and is following it. Why can't you?

MeDeFe wrote:a 60% chance lose 1 town, 40% chance lose 1 mafia.


Good odds. Explanation above.

MeDeFe wrote:Swifte, Shield, me and "perhaps betiko" saying we might simply keep you alive is still nearly a third of the playerbase at this point. "Only" is not exactly called for in those circumstances.


I beg to differ. With 8 people required to lynch in a 14-player game, it takes 7 people stating they'd rather not lynch me to make it a viable option. 4 (or even 5, if I support the plan) is not enough, especially if you consider you're apparently changing your mind and Betiko has voted me lately.

MeDeFe wrote:This is also the big point you have not responded to. A viable alternative is presented, you say it's interesting, and subsequently ignore it completely. Given the circumstances I'm not certain whether that can be called a scumtell or not, it's like you're hell-bent on getting lynched whether it benefits town or not, a highly unusual behaviour for a townie, but even more so for a scum.


Mind you, I've actually put a lot of thought into that.

First, the possibility of a mafia roleblocker could get Jimfinn blocked (or killed) and force us to start D3 with no report on me.

If we are lucky enough not to have a roleblocker in the game, it all boils down to whether mafia has a framer or not (I don't believe mafia would have a busdriver as that is too powerful in mafia's hand): if they do, we're wasting Jim's N2 to get me D3 mislynched and explode another townie in the process; if they don't, I'm basically guaranteed to live until endgame (unless the godfather is willing to forfeit a 1-shot bulletproof - that maybe he doesn't even have - in order to get rid of me) and town's actions become more accurate throughout the game. With all the uncertainty regarding mafia powe roles, if I were to suggest the possibility of not lynching me today, a reasonable ammount of the influencing factors I'd raise is my high opinion of myself, which is something everyone else could instantly comdenm or frown upon.

Regardless, what's the point of me saying "guys, I'm the town bomb, let me live!"? It will only open a whole can of worms of people saying "he fake-claimed bomb in a last-ditch attempt at surviving", people will vote in a disorganized manner (but scum will be organized enough to stop at L-1 and not hammer) and we're 100% getting a townie to hammer and explode.

If you think town is better off by allowing me to live, fine, but that decision has to come from the other players, not from me. While that decision has not come, I'll behave the only possible way: trying to force scum to explode with me.

I hope I've answered everything you wanted to know. If I didn't, please let me know and I'll get to it as soon as possible.

Fasposted by Betiko: did not yet read his post.


MeDeFe wrote:Your worst-case scenarios on the other hand have been based on mafia powerroles, lynchers, jesters and raising the specter of a beloved princess. What you're doing at the moment and have been doing throughout the game is sowing confusion among the town.


I misquoted that part in the other post and I had not answered it.

I did not raise the specter of a beloved princess. I never said this game had one and I highly doubt it does.

It was a purely abstract lesson in why something is bad for town and why a bomb forcing someone else to hammer is the complete opposite of a beloved princess, hence something good.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:33 pm

Not to mention I've NEVER said I believed this game had lynchers or jesters. My stance on that should already be crystal clear and you raising that in the manner you did, combined with your cop/roleblock fiasco is grounds for me to FOS Medefe (not the hammer FOS, though) for misrepresenting my points.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby MeDeFe on Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:39 pm

Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:a 60% chance lose 1 town, 40% chance lose 1 mafia.

Good odds. Explanation above.

So why the fuck would you throw your own townie butt (as you say) in there and make it a guaranteed loss for town?
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:56 pm

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:You are either ignoring situational thinking or are oblivious to it. ALL OF THIS is based on the UNLIKELIHOOD that you are telling the truth.


Thanks for clearing it up.

strike wolf wrote:Than what happens tonight if we have an extra townie dead and the same scenario? No we aren't subject to night actions but they do provide better information. Even in Memebase when we had three lynches in one day, we at least had the result of the lynches in between them (Not to mention a counterclaim that makes the situation much clearer) and it was still suggested that we did not have to use all three lynches.


Just use your situational thinking to conclude that I'll flip a town bomb and the the 2nd vote (the FOS one) is being made with that flip in mind.


Ok yeah I should have seen that coming. I stick by my opinion and there are other sides to this argument. There are people who I would absolutely not suspect unless you came up scum. Betiko is one but more relevantly is someone like Dazza. Someone who poses as a "volunteer" knowing that you are not actually a bomb and in turn gains town points by hammering you. I will say at this point I do not suspect dazza but that is still context that cannot be clear before a lynch regardless of situational thinking. In cases where we have the opportunity for multiple lynches in one day it is not necessary to use all of them and maybe if the cop and the doc were not both revealed I would be more willing to consider it but the fact is we do have two town power roles on the table and our ability as town to fully cover 3 in case one does have to claim is limited at best especially if mafia as you suggests has a role blocker. (I still think it's a bit flawed to say the bomb is like an extra lynch anyways). Besides the way this hammer works, the people we pressure because they are unwilling to hammer are not likely to be vanilla townies. That means we'd most assuredly be pressuring the power roles (possibly even while the mafia attempt to hide among the "volunteers"). So we are not just raising the chances of lynching a second person we are raising the chance more towards exposing a third power role. I think you should self-hammer. If not I want to see if Chap is going to follow through on hammering you as he said.

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:Are you telling me that you are not at all worried about the number of claims on the table?


Rodion wrote: Or 4, or 5, or 6...

I'm more worried about losing the game because I died and town is like a chicken with its head cut off, so I need to milk this day until I can get one scum killed.


strike wolf wrote:So now you're appealing to the fact that you're experienced and telling town that we'll be in bad shape if we lynch you. Weak.


It isn't weak because I did not say that in order to make you give up on lynching me. I said that because you asked me what worried me and that is what worries me. It is what it is. An honest answer to a possibly loaded question.


Don't back track. It was an obvious appeal to sympathy.

Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:And Rodion, seriously, you compare town to a chicken with its head cut off? You come in here and say that only you know what's going on and only you can hunt for scum efficiently, the rest of us just run around randomly?


Ironically, you're among those I perceive to have the better scum-hunting skills in this game. Yet you still threw mud at a townie by saying he is raising unlikely suspicions on a roleblocker that probably didn't exist and backed your words with the fact that an UNCLAIMED COP was not killed or blocked.

Pardon me, but you have just strengthened my doubts in the ability of town to win the game after my death.


And you echo that appeal here.

Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:Besides, I have thought things over, and come to the conclusion that the basis of your argument is flawed. If you're telling the truth, lynching you means there are two deaths in a day, it does not mean there are two lynches, though. We lynch you and a second person dies, but we have no means of acting on the information we get by lynching you. There is no second vote pattern to analyse, there is nothing. All we get is a second death.


This is why Jimfinn is organizing a FOS vote-count. We do get to pick who dies the 2nd death. We do have vote patterns to help our power roles act on N2 and everyone else to play on D3.

MeDeFe wrote:Even going by your estimates there is a 35-45% chance of a scum getting pressured into lynching you, lets say 40% for short (though it would probably be a bit lower on account of the scum also influencing who should be the sacrificial hammer). If you're not lying and really are a bomb, that means there's a 60% or higher chance of ending up with two dead townies. I don't find those odds acceptable


100% chance lose 1 town
against
a 60% chance lose 2 towns, 40% chance lose 1 town-1mafia.

Also, you can't have it both ways. If you're going with the "scum will influence a mishammer", you'll have to admit we're getting vote patterns to analyse in the future.

MeDeFe wrote:But it doesn't end there, if we pressure someone and they claim and are believed, what then? Progress to the next person? We might as well all agree to massclaim today. The scum will most probably have been given fakeclaims, so the net benefit for town would be somewhere around nil. Then supporting powerroles start getting killed off until the doc and/or cop can be safely targeted by the scum, that shouldn't take more than 2 nights. Another mislynch in between is not unlikely, and by that point we're pretty much screwed.


Again, you're being misleading. You're considering a worst case scenario, the scenario in which town is incompetent enough to force the wrong people to claim (or to believe their fakeclaims). If you're actually going to assume the worst case scenario, then we might as well give up on the game right now and congratulate mafia on a perfect performance.


I'm sorry but you've basically been saying the same thing that you don't think town will be able to reach appropriate lynches without you. hypocritical? maybe maybe not but it's definitely ironic.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:58 pm

Will you discuss the rest of my post as well?

MeDeFe wrote:
Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:a 60% chance lose 1 town, 40% chance lose 1 mafia.

Good odds. Explanation above.

So why the fuck would you throw your own townie butt (as you say) in there and make it a guaranteed loss for town?


This is answered by this.

Rodion wrote:Regardless, what's the point of me saying "guys, I'm the town bomb, let me live!"? It will only open a whole can of worms of people saying "he fake-claimed bomb in a last-ditch attempt at surviving", people will vote in a disorganized manner (but scum will be organized enough to stop at L-1 and not hammer) and we're 100% getting a townie to hammer and explode.

If you think town is better off by allowing me to live, fine, but that decision has to come from the other players, not from me. While that decision has not come, I'll behave the only possible way: trying to force scum to explode with me.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:04 pm

I'll answer you later tonight, Strike. Gotta go now.

Rodion

P.S.: try not to call me out 3 hours from now and then say the timing of my answer is scummy, will you?
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby MeDeFe on Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:31 pm

Rodion wrote:Will you discuss the rest of my post as well?

MeDeFe wrote:
Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:a 60% chance lose 1 town, 40% chance lose 1 mafia.

Good odds. Explanation above.

So why the fuck would you throw your own townie butt (as you say) in there and make it a guaranteed loss for town?


This is answered by this.

Rodion wrote:Regardless, what's the point of me saying "guys, I'm the town bomb, let me live!"? It will only open a whole can of worms of people saying "he fake-claimed bomb in a last-ditch attempt at surviving", people will vote in a disorganized manner (but scum will be organized enough to stop at L-1 and not hammer) and we're 100% getting a townie to hammer and explode.

If you think town is better off by allowing me to live, fine, but that decision has to come from the other players, not from me. While that decision has not come, I'll behave the only possible way: trying to force scum to explode with me.

And why not simply lynch someone else who appears scummy? Why try to force them to lynch you?

You haven't answered squat.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby dazza2008 on Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:40 pm

MeDeFe wrote:
Rodion wrote:Will you discuss the rest of my post as well?

MeDeFe wrote:
Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:a 60% chance lose 1 town, 40% chance lose 1 mafia.

Good odds. Explanation above.

So why the fuck would you throw your own townie butt (as you say) in there and make it a guaranteed loss for town?


This is answered by this.

Rodion wrote:Regardless, what's the point of me saying "guys, I'm the town bomb, let me live!"? It will only open a whole can of worms of people saying "he fake-claimed bomb in a last-ditch attempt at surviving", people will vote in a disorganized manner (but scum will be organized enough to stop at L-1 and not hammer) and we're 100% getting a townie to hammer and explode.

If you think town is better off by allowing me to live, fine, but that decision has to come from the other players, not from me. While that decision has not come, I'll behave the only possible way: trying to force scum to explode with me.

And why not simply lynch someone else who appears scummy? Why try to force them to lynch you?

You haven't answered squat.

Have we all not been over why he needs to be lynched a few times? FOS MeDeFe
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby safariguy5 on Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:42 pm

Vote Count

Rodion (6)- strike, chap, jonty, Mob, betiko, epitaph
strike(1)- Rodion


With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 6:24 pm

MeDeFe wrote:And why not simply lynch someone else who appears scummy? Why try to force them to lynch you?

You haven't answered squat.


I'll answer again with the same quote and an extra (and possibly redundant) explanation.


Rodion wrote:This is answered by this.

Rodion wrote:Regardless, what's the point of me saying "guys, I'm the town bomb, let me live!"? It will only open a whole can of worms of people saying "he fake-claimed bomb in a last-ditch attempt at surviving", people will vote in a disorganized manner (but scum will be organized enough to stop at L-1 and not hammer) and we're 100% getting a townie to hammer and explode.

If you think town is better off by allowing me to live, fine, but that decision has to come from the other players, not from me. While that decision has not come, I'll behave the only possible way: trying to force scum to explode with me.


Reverse psychology says begging to live is the quickest way to get me lynched. I've already explained that if I got to the point where I was forced to claim and people still don't believe me, then the best I can do is get the right person to hammer me.

If you'd rather believe me or drop the case for a few days, fine, but the decision has to come from other people, not from me.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 6:42 pm

strike wolf wrote:Ok yeah I should have seen that coming. I stick by my opinion and there are other sides to this argument. There are people who I would absolutely not suspect unless you came up scum. Betiko is one but more relevantly is someone like Dazza. Someone who poses as a "volunteer" knowing that you are not actually a bomb and in turn gains town points by hammering you.


It kinds of goes without saying that, should I flip mafia (which I'm not), you can completely nulify any "town points" that would otherwise be gained, since the other mafia would know they were at 0 risk of exploding upon hammering me. Try to think situationally, buddy.

strike wolf wrote:I will say at this point I do not suspect dazza but that is still context that cannot be clear before a lynch regardless of situational thinking. In cases where we have the opportunity for multiple lynches in one day it is not necessary to use all of them and maybe if the cop and the doc were not both revealed I would be more willing to consider it but the fact is we do have two town power roles on the table and our ability as town to fully cover 3 in case one does have to claim is limited at best especially if mafia as you suggests has a role blocker. (I still think it's a bit flawed to say the bomb is like an extra lynch anyways).


Again, you should have brought that "we can't cover 3 power roles" crap before you forced me to claim. It's hypocritical and arbitrary of you to only suggest it now.

strike wolf wrote:Besides the way this hammer works, the people we pressure because they are unwilling to hammer are not likely to be vanilla townies.


If you are going to pressure people for the simple fact they've showed resistance to hammering, yes. We can all vote freely, though, and you are equally free to convince town on who you think should hammer (other than me, because I'm "unthreatenable").

strike wolf wrote:That means we'd most assuredly be pressuring the power roles (possibly even while the mafia attempt to hide among the "volunteers"). So we are not just raising the chances of lynching a second person we are raising the chance more towards exposing a third power role.


See above.

strike wolf wrote:I think you should self-hammer. If not I want to see if Chap is going to follow through on hammering you as he said.


Of course you do.

strike wolf wrote:Don't back track. It was an obvious appeal to sympathy.


Yes, because sympathy is exactly what people feel when you basically say they suck.

Gosh, do you even read your accusations before you post them? :roll:

strike wolf wrote:
Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:And Rodion, seriously, you compare town to a chicken with its head cut off? You come in here and say that only you know what's going on and only you can hunt for scum efficiently, the rest of us just run around randomly?


Ironically, you're among those I perceive to have the better scum-hunting skills in this game. Yet you still threw mud at a townie by saying he is raising unlikely suspicions on a roleblocker that probably didn't exist and backed your words with the fact that an UNCLAIMED COP was not killed or blocked.

Pardon me, but you have just strengthened my doubts in the ability of town to win the game after my death.


And you echo that appeal here.


Correction: I reinforce my arguments of why I don't trust town enough to win without me after showing Medefe slip into a blatant and undeniable mistake.

strike wolf wrote:I'm sorry but you've basically been saying the same thing that you don't think town will be able to reach appropriate lynches without you. hypocritical? maybe maybe not but it's definitely ironic.


Obviously not. This is exactly why I'm here, discussing and trying to make this "lynch" (my hammer explosion) an appropriate one, because I know things will go downhill after I die. There is 0 hipocrisy and 0 irony in here, just a lack of comprehension by you.

Also, thank you for not calling me out before I got to post this. That would certainly have made the timing of my answer suspicious by your standards and I'm happy I have 1 less reason to be FOSed.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Tue Dec 13, 2011 6:59 pm

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:Ok yeah I should have seen that coming. I stick by my opinion and there are other sides to this argument. There are people who I would absolutely not suspect unless you came up scum. Betiko is one but more relevantly is someone like Dazza. Someone who poses as a "volunteer" knowing that you are not actually a bomb and in turn gains town points by hammering you.


It kinds of goes without saying that, should I flip mafia (which I'm not), you can completely nulify any "town points" that would otherwise be gained, since the other mafia would know they were at 0 risk of exploding upon hammering me. Try to think situationally, buddy.

strike wolf wrote:I will say at this point I do not suspect dazza but that is still context that cannot be clear before a lynch regardless of situational thinking. In cases where we have the opportunity for multiple lynches in one day it is not necessary to use all of them and maybe if the cop and the doc were not both revealed I would be more willing to consider it but the fact is we do have two town power roles on the table and our ability as town to fully cover 3 in case one does have to claim is limited at best especially if mafia as you suggests has a role blocker. (I still think it's a bit flawed to say the bomb is like an extra lynch anyways).


Again, you should have brought that "we can't cover 3 power roles" crap before you forced me to claim. It's hypocritical and arbitrary of you to only suggest it now.


I did bring it up. I did suggest that we should maybe consider a no lynch. It didn't appear anyone was agreeing with me and that the case on you wasn't going away with some pressure to post I decided to go for it. Don't act like this is something that I just came up with afterwards because that by itself is FOS worthy.

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:Besides the way this hammer works, the people we pressure because they are unwilling to hammer are not likely to be vanilla townies.


If you are going to pressure people for the simple fact they've showed resistance to hammering, yes. We can all vote freely, though, and you are equally free to convince town on who you think should hammer (other than me, because I'm "unthreatenable").


And there we go. It really has become a pissing contest and just one more reason just to end this. None of this has refuted that this is not just going to bring out any townies, it's likely to bring out power roles and you have never come up with a good answer to that.

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:That means we'd most assuredly be pressuring the power roles (possibly even while the mafia attempt to hide among the "volunteers"). So we are not just raising the chances of lynching a second person we are raising the chance more towards exposing a third power role.


See above.


Why? you really didn't answer anything.

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:I think you should self-hammer. If not I want to see if Chap is going to follow through on hammering you as he said.


Of course you do.

strike wolf wrote:Don't back track. It was an obvious appeal to sympathy.


Yes, because sympathy is exactly what people feel when you basically say they suck.

Gosh, do you even read your accusations before you post them? :roll:


I do. Appealing to sympathy was the wrong word (Forgive me I am a bit tired). You are appealing to the base thought of "lynch me and you're screwed over guys". It's a weak defense and laughable.

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:
Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:And Rodion, seriously, you compare town to a chicken with its head cut off? You come in here and say that only you know what's going on and only you can hunt for scum efficiently, the rest of us just run around randomly?


Ironically, you're among those I perceive to have the better scum-hunting skills in this game. Yet you still threw mud at a townie by saying he is raising unlikely suspicions on a roleblocker that probably didn't exist and backed your words with the fact that an UNCLAIMED COP was not killed or blocked.

Pardon me, but you have just strengthened my doubts in the ability of town to win the game after my death.


And you echo that appeal here.


Correction: I reinforce my arguments of why I don't trust town enough to win without me after showing Medefe slip into a blatant and undeniable mistake.


Like I said. You echo your same plea. You're trying to appeal to town by saying you're some grand mastermind of mafia who will inevitably screw over the mafia and that we'll lose without you.

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:I'm sorry but you've basically been saying the same thing that you don't think town will be able to reach appropriate lynches without you. hypocritical? maybe maybe not but it's definitely ironic.


Obviously not. This is exactly why I'm here, discussing and trying to make this "lynch" (my hammer explosion) an appropriate one, because I know things will go downhill after I die. There is 0 hipocrisy and 0 irony in here, just a lack of comprehension by you.

Also, thank you for not calling me out before I got to post this. That would certainly have made the timing of my answer suspicious by your standards and I'm happy I have 1 less reason to be FOSed.



How does saying you "Know things will go downhill after I die" refute anything I just stated? Because really you've proven the point I was making.

At the last part. :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Honestly after this post I almost feel you are a jester.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 7:29 pm

strike wolf wrote:I did bring it up. I did suggest that we should maybe consider a no lynch. It didn't appear anyone was agreeing with me and that the case on you wasn't going away with some pressure to post I decided to go for it. Don't act like this is something that I just came up with afterwards because that by itself is FOS worthy.


Except that you can't have it both ways. You can't force someone to claim and then play the "I mentioned we had better stop forcing claims". This is EXACTLY why I forced you to commit to a position before I claimed. Because I knew you'd backpedal when shit hit the fan and I didn't want to leave that street open to you.


strike wolf wrote:And there we go. It really has become a pissing contest and just one more reason just to end this. None of this has refuted that this is not just going to bring out any townies, it's likely to bring out power roles and you have never come up with a good answer to that.


I have, but you seem to be oblivious to statistics. Is it possible that we'll force townies to hammer? More than possible, it is likely.

Still, it is statistically correct to do so. Check my previous posts. The explanation is there.

strike wolf wrote:Why? you really didn't answer anything.


Read above again.

strike wolf wrote:I do. Appealing to sympathy was the wrong word (Forgive me I am a bit tired). You are appealing to the base thought of "lynch me and you're screwed over guys". It's a weak defense and laughable.


If only I could steal one vote everytime I was able to make people confess they fucked up part of their attack...

Yes, the "appeal" you wanted is a different one, definitely not sympathy.

And I've answered that before! I am NOT bringing this up as a reason why I should not be killed. I only bring this up when people force me to, like you did when you asked what "worried me". I told you what worried me and you made this big fuss. If you don't want to know what worries me, don't ask (but you should, since this game is about getting as much conversation as possible before decisions are made).

strike wolf wrote:Like I said. You echo your same plea. You're trying to appeal to town by saying you're some grand mastermind of mafia who will inevitably screw over the mafia and that we'll lose without you.


Unfortunately I can't promise to screw over the mafia with so many people making mistakes in their cases. There are probably 4-5 anti-town players and way more people doing anti-town actions, which means some townies are playing it wrong. I can assure, however, odds of a town win will only go down after my death, ESPECIALLY if you don't allow me to keep the process of FOSing to decide the hammer and get to force one of the rash people to speedhammer instead.

strike wolf wrote:How does saying you "Know things will go downhill after I die" refute anything I just stated? Because really you've proven the point I was making.


What IS the point you are trying to make?

Are you trying to say my whole defense is "I'm too smart to die"? Because anyone who has read this game knows I've argued several things and this was only incidental after you provoked me.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Tue Dec 13, 2011 7:45 pm

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:I did bring it up. I did suggest that we should maybe consider a no lynch. It didn't appear anyone was agreeing with me and that the case on you wasn't going away with some pressure to post I decided to go for it. Don't act like this is something that I just came up with afterwards because that by itself is FOS worthy.


Except that you can't have it both ways. You can't force someone to claim and then play the "I mentioned we had better stop forcing claims". This is EXACTLY why I forced you to commit to a position before I claimed. Because I knew you'd backpedal when shit hit the fan and I didn't want to leave that street open to you.


And I explained why I changed my position. :roll: Tell me something we don't know. Should I spell it out again? You're case wasn't going away. You're case was stronger than anything that's present on the map right now. You've become a centerpiece in about half the scum tells in this game and where people stand. You're case is one of those rare cases that can shift the direction that the entire game can go not just a few people. I did backpedal a little bit. Mafia isn't always a straight path. There are forks in the road and I think I've given a pretty good explanation for why that is. So don't go on this tangent about me being hypocritical because you obviously can't back it up.

Rodion][quote="strike wolf wrote:And there we go. It really has become a pissing contest and just one more reason just to end this. None of this has refuted that this is not just going to bring out any townies, it's likely to bring out power roles and you have never come up with a good answer to that.


I have, but you seem to be oblivious to statistics. Is it possible that we'll force townies to hammer? More than possible, it is likely.

Still, it is statistically correct to do so. Check my previous posts. The explanation is there.[/quote]

You're statistics didn't account for a higher possible ratio of power roles vs regular townies being exposed.

Rodion][quote="strike wolf wrote:Why? you really didn't answer anything.


Read above again.

strike wolf wrote:I do. Appealing to sympathy was the wrong word (Forgive me I am a bit tired). You are appealing to the base thought of "lynch me and you're screwed over guys". It's a weak defense and laughable.


If only I could steal one vote everytime I was able to make people confess they fucked up part of their attack...

Yes, the "appeal" you wanted is a different one, definitely not sympathy.

And I've answered that before! I am NOT bringing this up as a reason why I should not be killed. I only bring this up when people force me to, like you did when you asked what "worried me". I told you what worried me and you made this big fuss. If you don't want to know what worries me, don't ask (but you should, since this game is about getting as much conversation as possible before decisions are made).[/quote]

I didn't ask what worried you directly. I asked you if you were at all worried about the chance of exposing power roles...you decided to use that to come up with the town going down the hill without you. It was an obvious appeal to try to get people to question to wagon based on your "value".

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:Like I said. You echo your same plea. You're trying to appeal to town by saying you're some grand mastermind of mafia who will inevitably screw over the mafia and that we'll lose without you.


Unfortunately I can't promise to screw over the mafia with so many people making mistakes in their cases. There are probably 4-5 anti-town players and way more people doing anti-town actions, which means some townies are playing it wrong. I can assure, however, odds of a town win will only go down after my death, ESPECIALLY if you don't allow me to keep the process of FOSing to decide the hammer and get to force one of the rash people to speedhammer instead.

strike wolf wrote:How does saying you "Know things will go downhill after I die" refute anything I just stated? Because really you've proven the point I was making.


What IS the point you are trying to make?
It's the same thing I said three times. You keep trying to appeal to people that things are going to go downhill after you die. It was obvious and rather than at least try to explain it a different way you kept doing it.

rodion wrote:Are you trying to say my whole defense is "I'm too smart to die"? Because anyone who has read this game knows I've argued several things and this was only incidental after you provoked me.


I never said your whole defense. This latest tangent you've gone on? it's been a big part.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:32 pm

strike wolf wrote:And I explained why I changed my position. :roll: Tell me something we don't know. Should I spell it out again? You're case wasn't going away. You're case was stronger than anything that's present on the map right now. You've become a centerpiece in about half the scum tells in this game and where people stand. You're case is one of those rare cases that can shift the direction that the entire game can go not just a few people. I did backpedal a little bit. Mafia isn't always a straight path. There are forks in the road and I think I've given a pretty good explanation for why that is. So don't go on this tangent about me being hypocritical because you obviously can't back it up.


Mafia is a also game of accountability. It means you should be ready to take flak for the wrong actions you do. That is of special importance to someone that as highly regarded as you are in the mafia community. You're one of the main forces driving my lynch. My lynch is likely to happen. After I flip and there is 0 doubt I was innocent, you will be under the spotlight. I forced you to commit because I realized you'd use your explanation to make you seem townie after my death ("I told you guys, too bad nobody listened to me!") and I am not allowing that to fly.

Also, about half the scum tells? You mean pointing to Safari's post in GP: Greek is polarizing enough to account for half the scum tells of this huge D2? Or perhaps you are also bundling the timing of that post, my french line asking for a link, Chap's false accusation that I told the cop what to do, Jim's false accusation that I pressured Strike when he misquoted Monkey, Medefe's false accusation that relied on the cop having claimed before he actually did? Because if you add all the crap several players threw at me, then, yeah, I'm the centerpiece in about half the scumtells. :roll:

[quote="strike wolf]You're statistics didn't account for a higher possible ratio of power roles vs regular townies being exposed.[/quote]

You're wrong, they did.

[quote="strike wolf]I didn't ask what worried you directly. I asked you if you were at all worried about the chance of exposing power roles...you decided to use that to come up with the town going down the hill without you. It was an obvious appeal to try to get people to question to wagon based on your "value".[/quote]

This is correct, I did put it into perspective. Worrying about another power role exposed is not a big deal if we can get scum, especially when we consider what we're losing after D2. But I've already said that enough times.

[quote="strike wolf]I never said your whole defense. This latest tangent you've gone on? it's been a big part.[/quote]

It's only a big part because you're baiting me into answering more and more questions about it.

If you make a case against someone with 5 points and I start questioning one of them and you start defending that one point and we go on back and forth through several pages, it might SEEM that that one point is a big part of the argument, more than it in fact is. This is exactly the case here.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:33 pm

EBWOP (quoting pyramids are hard!)

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:And I explained why I changed my position. :roll: Tell me something we don't know. Should I spell it out again? You're case wasn't going away. You're case was stronger than anything that's present on the map right now. You've become a centerpiece in about half the scum tells in this game and where people stand. You're case is one of those rare cases that can shift the direction that the entire game can go not just a few people. I did backpedal a little bit. Mafia isn't always a straight path. There are forks in the road and I think I've given a pretty good explanation for why that is. So don't go on this tangent about me being hypocritical because you obviously can't back it up.


Mafia is a also game of accountability. It means you should be ready to take flak for the wrong actions you do. That is of special importance to someone that as highly regarded as you are in the mafia community. You're one of the main forces driving my lynch. My lynch is likely to happen. After I flip and there is 0 doubt I was innocent, you will be under the spotlight. I forced you to commit because I realized you'd use your explanation to make you seem townie after my death ("I told you guys, too bad nobody listened to me!") and I am not allowing that to fly.

Also, about half the scum tells? You mean pointing to Safari's post in GP: Greek is polarizing enough to account for half the scum tells of this huge D2? Or perhaps you are also bundling the timing of that post, my french line asking for a link, Chap's false accusation that I told the cop what to do, Jim's false accusation that I pressured Strike when he misquoted Monkey, Medefe's false accusation that relied on the cop having claimed before he actually did? Because if you add all the crap several players threw at me, then, yeah, I'm the centerpiece in about half the scumtells. :roll:

strike wolf wrote:You're statistics didn't account for a higher possible ratio of power roles vs regular townies being exposed.


You're wrong, they did.

strike wolf wrote:I didn't ask what worried you directly. I asked you if you were at all worried about the chance of exposing power roles...you decided to use that to come up with the town going down the hill without you. It was an obvious appeal to try to get people to question to wagon based on your "value".


This is correct, I did put it into perspective. Worrying about another power role exposed is not a big deal if we can get scum, especially when we consider what we're losing after D2. But I've already said that enough times.

strike wolf wrote:I never said your whole defense. This latest tangent you've gone on? it's been a big part.


It's only a big part because you're baiting me into answering more and more questions about it.

If you make a case against someone with 5 points and I start questioning one of them and you start defending that one point and we go on back and forth through several pages, it might SEEM that that one point is a big part of the argument, more than it in fact is. This is exactly the case here.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:55 pm

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:And I explained why I changed my position. :roll: Tell me something we don't know. Should I spell it out again? You're case wasn't going away. You're case was stronger than anything that's present on the map right now. You've become a centerpiece in about half the scum tells in this game and where people stand. You're case is one of those rare cases that can shift the direction that the entire game can go not just a few people. I did backpedal a little bit. Mafia isn't always a straight path. There are forks in the road and I think I've given a pretty good explanation for why that is. So don't go on this tangent about me being hypocritical because you obviously can't back it up.


Mafia is a also game of accountability. It means you should be ready to take flak for the wrong actions you do. That is of special importance to someone that as highly regarded as you are in the mafia community. You're one of the main forces driving my lynch. My lynch is likely to happen. After I flip and there is 0 doubt I was innocent, you will be under the spotlight. I forced you to commit because I realized you'd use your explanation to make you seem townie after my death ("I told you guys, too bad nobody listened to me!") and I am not allowing that to fly.


And I'm prepared to take whatever flak is thrown at me. That doesn't mean I'm not going to voice my position and why i did everything. I knew that if you were town and I still doubt that that I would go unnoticed today. I don't like my position (If you flip scum I'm likely on top of the scum's kill list, if you flip town I'm likely at the top of town's kill list. There's even a possibility the vig will take a shot at me. What I'm not going down is lie down and take it. As far as being wrong and admitting it. I think that's some advice that you need to take for yourself more often.

Rodion wrote:Also, about half the scum tells? You mean pointing to Safari's post in GP: Greek is polarizing enough to account for half the scum tells of this huge D2? Or perhaps you are also bundling the timing of that post, my french line asking for a link, Chap's false accusation that I told the cop what to do, Jim's false accusation that I pressured Strike when he misquoted Monkey, Medefe's false accusation that relied on the cop having claimed before he actually did? Because if you add all the crap several players threw at me, then, yeah, I'm the centerpiece in about half the scumtells. :roll:


Don't play dumb. You know that regardless of the origins more than half the people in this game picked a position against you, many of them have picked pretty definitive stance. I explained this when I originally decided to follow through after Jim's claims and everything escalated with you.

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf]You're statistics didn't account for a higher possible ratio of power roles vs regular townies being exposed.[/quote]

You're wrong, they did.[/quote]

Show it. From what I saw there were some stats about 40% mafia 60% town (being the middle ground as far as percentage roughly). That doesn't really account for Power roles and mafia trying to hide amongst volunteers when it comes down to how you've pursued this (turning a blind eye to "Volunteers" and pursuing the resistant). That alone manipulates those stats.

[quote="Rodion wrote:
[quote="strike wolf]I didn't ask what worried you directly. I asked you if you were at all worried about the chance of exposing power roles...you decided to use that to come up with the town going down the hill without you. It was an obvious appeal to try to get people to question to wagon based on your "value".[/quote]

This is correct, I did put it into perspective. Worrying about another power role exposed is not a big deal if we can get scum, especially when we consider what we're losing after D2. But I've already said that enough times.

[quote="strike wolf]I never said your whole defense. This latest tangent you've gone on? it's been a big part.[/quote]

It's only a big part because you're baiting me into answering more and more questions about it.[/quote]


And that explains why you brought it up when replying to MeDeFe? because it doesn't. I didn't bring up what your value was to town. you did that as a round about response to my question about whether you were worried about exposing power roles.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:59 pm

strike wolf wrote:
Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:And I explained why I changed my position. :roll: Tell me something we don't know. Should I spell it out again? You're case wasn't going away. You're case was stronger than anything that's present on the map right now. You've become a centerpiece in about half the scum tells in this game and where people stand. You're case is one of those rare cases that can shift the direction that the entire game can go not just a few people. I did backpedal a little bit. Mafia isn't always a straight path. There are forks in the road and I think I've given a pretty good explanation for why that is. So don't go on this tangent about me being hypocritical because you obviously can't back it up.


Mafia is a also game of accountability. It means you should be ready to take flak for the wrong actions you do. That is of special importance to someone that as highly regarded as you are in the mafia community. You're one of the main forces driving my lynch. My lynch is likely to happen. After I flip and there is 0 doubt I was innocent, you will be under the spotlight. I forced you to commit because I realized you'd use your explanation to make you seem townie after my death ("I told you guys, too bad nobody listened to me!") and I am not allowing that to fly.


And I'm prepared to take whatever flak is thrown at me. That doesn't mean I'm not going to voice my position and why i did everything. I knew that if you were town and I still doubt that that I would go unnoticed as being on the opposite side of the argument today. I listed it as one of the reasons I did not like you bringing up that argument. I don't like my position (If you flip scum I'm likely on top of the scum's kill list, if you flip town I'm likely at the top of town's kill list. There's even a possibility the vig will take a shot at me. What I'm not going down is lie down and take it. As far as being wrong and admitting it. I think that's some advice that you need to take for yourself more often.

Rodion wrote:Also, about half the scum tells? You mean pointing to Safari's post in GP: Greek is polarizing enough to account for half the scum tells of this huge D2? Or perhaps you are also bundling the timing of that post, my french line asking for a link, Chap's false accusation that I told the cop what to do, Jim's false accusation that I pressured Strike when he misquoted Monkey, Medefe's false accusation that relied on the cop having claimed before he actually did? Because if you add all the crap several players threw at me, then, yeah, I'm the centerpiece in about half the scumtells. :roll:


Don't play dumb. You know that regardless of the origins more than half the people in this game picked a position against you, many of them have picked pretty definitive stance. I explained this when I originally decided to follow through after Jim's claims and everything escalated with you.

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf]You're statistics didn't account for a higher possible ratio of power roles vs regular townies being exposed.[/quote]

You're wrong, they did.[/quote]

Show it. From what I saw there were some stats about 40% mafia 60% town (being the middle ground as far as percentage roughly). That doesn't really account for Power roles and mafia trying to hide amongst volunteers when it comes down to how you've pursued this (turning a blind eye to "Volunteers" and pursuing the resistant). That alone manipulates those stats.

[quote="Rodion wrote:
[quote="strike wolf]I didn't ask what worried you directly. I asked you if you were at all worried about the chance of exposing power roles...you decided to use that to come up with the town going down the hill without you. It was an obvious appeal to try to get people to question to wagon based on your "value".[/quote]

This is correct, I did put it into perspective. Worrying about another power role exposed is not a big deal if we can get scum, especially when we consider what we're losing after D2. But I've already said that enough times.

[quote="strike wolf]I never said your whole defense. This latest tangent you've gone on? it's been a big part.[/quote]

It's only a big part because you're baiting me into answering more and more questions about it.[/quote][/quote][/quote]

And that explains why you brought it up when replying to MeDeFe? because it doesn't. I didn't bring up what your value was to town. you did that as a round about response to my question about whether you were worried about exposing power roles.[/quote]


EBwop: the way I wrote it was unclear.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:22 pm

strike wolf wrote:And I'm prepared to take whatever flak is thrown at me. That doesn't mean I'm not going to voice my position and why i did everything. I knew that if you were town and I still doubt that that I would go unnoticed today. I don't like my position (If you flip scum I'm likely on top of the scum's kill list, if you flip town I'm likely at the top of town's kill list. There's even a possibility the vig will take a shot at me. What I'm not going down is lie down and take it. As far as being wrong and admitting it. I think that's some advice that you need to take for yourself more often.


Good, that's good.

And I have no problem admitting mistakes when I'm wrong. I quickly apologized for skimming when I mentioned Chap/Trini's L-2 discussion, as have I admitted that my answer about worrying was not given directly to your question, but rather in perspective about something that worried me more. I'll do it more often if/when I'm wrong more often, mmkay?


strike wolf]Don't play dumb. You know that regardless of the origins more than half the people in this game picked a position against you, many of them have picked pretty definitive stance. I explained this when I originally decided to follow through after Jim's claims and everything escalated with you.[/quote]

This is not about playing dumb, it's about you again exaggerating something in order to accomplish something. About half the scum tells is ludicrous and I showed that you could only come close to that figure by throwing all the BS accusation I've received over the course of the day.

[quote="strike wolf]Show it. From what I saw there were some stats about 40% mafia 60% town (being the middle ground as far as percentage roughly). That doesn't really account for Power roles and mafia trying to hide amongst volunteers when it comes down to how you've pursued this (turning a blind eye to "Volunteers" and pursuing the resistant). That alone manipulates those stats.[/quote]

We got 2 volunteers immediately and I said we should not aim for them. That does not change the fact that it is a voting process and you can get one of them to hammer. I also said any other attempt at volunteering from that point should be considered WIFOM, so "hiding" amongst volunteers is a prerrogative only Chap and Dazza can have.

If you want me to account for the loss of town power roles, while their loss is higher than that of a VT, the 60% chance of losing a townie (which can either be a power role or a VT) is still offset by the increased benefit of killing mafia. Each mafia that dies is worth 25% of their faction's power (more if they are a power role like framer/roleblocker), while no power roles we currently have add to that figure, especially if you dilute their likelihood amidst all vanillas.

I could waste hours trying to come up with a likely game configuration in order to show you why getting someone to hammer is better than a self-hammer, but I don't think that would work. For reference, last time I was town and tried to use numbers to prove why I was right, Freezie said he didn't even read the explanation and would keep his vote on me (Magic: the Gathering mafia). Is it that hard to accept that someone who has got to Field Marshal/General in a strategy game knows a little more about numbers, statistics and odds than a cook in the same game? Yes, another appeal (this one is called appeal to authority in case you want to call me out on that).

[quote="strike wolf]And that explains why you brought it up when replying to MeDeFe? because it doesn't. I didn't bring up what your value was to town. you did that as a round about response to my question about whether you were worried about exposing power roles.[/quote]

I did not. It was Medefe that brought this up, thus forcing me to reply and making it seem like it is a "big part of my arguments". Here is the proof:


[quote="MeDeFe wrote:
And Rodion, seriously, you compare town to a chicken with its head cut off? You come in here and say that only you know what's going on and only you can hunt for scum efficiently, the rest of us just run around randomly? Even putting aside any indignation I may feel, that's not an argument for us to go along with your plans. On the contrary. Your attempt to portray yourself as an authority to be trusted, rather than to provide a coherent argument makes you look scummy to me.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:24 pm

EBWOPS: pyramids!!! :cry:

Rodion wrote:
strike wolf wrote:And I'm prepared to take whatever flak is thrown at me. That doesn't mean I'm not going to voice my position and why i did everything. I knew that if you were town and I still doubt that that I would go unnoticed today. I don't like my position (If you flip scum I'm likely on top of the scum's kill list, if you flip town I'm likely at the top of town's kill list. There's even a possibility the vig will take a shot at me. What I'm not going down is lie down and take it. As far as being wrong and admitting it. I think that's some advice that you need to take for yourself more often.


Good, that's good.

And I have no problem admitting mistakes when I'm wrong. I quickly apologized for skimming when I mentioned Chap/Trini's L-2 discussion, as have I admitted that my answer about worrying was not given directly to your question, but rather in perspective about something that worried me more. I'll do it more often if/when I'm wrong more often, mmkay?


strike wolf wrote:Don't play dumb. You know that regardless of the origins more than half the people in this game picked a position against you, many of them have picked pretty definitive stance. I explained this when I originally decided to follow through after Jim's claims and everything escalated with you.


This is not about playing dumb, it's about you again exaggerating something in order to accomplish something. About half the scum tells is ludicrous and I showed that you could only come close to that figure by throwing all the BS accusation I've received over the course of the day.

strike wolf wrote:Show it. From what I saw there were some stats about 40% mafia 60% town (being the middle ground as far as percentage roughly). That doesn't really account for Power roles and mafia trying to hide amongst volunteers when it comes down to how you've pursued this (turning a blind eye to "Volunteers" and pursuing the resistant). That alone manipulates those stats.


We got 2 volunteers immediately and I said we should not aim for them. That does not change the fact that it is a voting process and you can get one of them to hammer. I also said any other attempt at volunteering from that point should be considered WIFOM, so "hiding" amongst volunteers is a prerrogative only Chap and Dazza can have.

If you want me to account for the loss of town power roles, while their loss is higher than that of a VT, the 60% chance of losing a townie (which can either be a power role or a VT) is still offset by the increased benefit of killing mafia. Each mafia that dies is worth 25% of their faction's power (more if they are a power role like framer/roleblocker), while no power roles we currently have add to that figure, especially if you dilute their likelihood amidst all vanillas.

I could waste hours trying to come up with a likely game configuration in order to show you why getting someone to hammer is better than a self-hammer, but I don't think that would work. For reference, last time I was town and tried to use numbers to prove why I was right, Freezie said he didn't even read the explanation and would keep his vote on me (Magic: the Gathering mafia). Is it that hard to accept that someone who has got to Field Marshal/General in a strategy game knows a little more about numbers, statistics and odds than a cook in the same game? Yes, another appeal (this one is called appeal to authority in case you want to call me out on that).

strike wolf wrote:And that explains why you brought it up when replying to MeDeFe? because it doesn't. I didn't bring up what your value was to town. you did that as a round about response to my question about whether you were worried about exposing power roles.


I did not. It was Medefe that brought this up, thus forcing me to reply and making it seem like it is a "big part of my arguments". Here is the proof:


MeDeFe wrote:And Rodion, seriously, you compare town to a chicken with its head cut off? You come in here and say that only you know what's going on and only you can hunt for scum efficiently, the rest of us just run around randomly? Even putting aside any indignation I may feel, that's not an argument for us to go along with your plans. On the contrary. Your attempt to portray yourself as an authority to be trusted, rather than to provide a coherent argument makes you look scummy to me.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby jimfinn on Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:38 am

I looked up several MS games with bomb claims, and the idea of voting on who has to hammer the claimed bomb is near standard. So it's not necessarily such a bad idea.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby MeDeFe on Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:35 am

Reverse psychology says begging to live is the quickest way to get me lynched. I've already explained that if I got to the point where I was forced to claim and people still don't believe me, then the best I can do is get the right person to hammer me.

If you'd rather believe me or drop the case for a few days, fine, but the decision has to come from other people, not from me.

In that case reverse psychology also says that begging to be killed is the most certain way to stay alive. The way this game is going it may even be working, I can't make heads nor tails of your actions at the moment. You say "the decision has to come from other people", and yet you've been doing your damnedest to argue against every alternative course of action. So how about this: You shut up and let other people discuss the benefits and drawbacks of keeping you alive and either voting no lynch or pressuring someone else. Then maybe the 30% that spoke for those options before could properly present their side without being shouted down by you. Maybe then it will become viable even by your screwed up definition of "viable" equaling "supported by the majority", by that definition your own suggestion doesn't seem to be viable either right now, yet you keep arguing for it.

I'm serious, just shut up for a few days and let others argue the pros and cons.



BTW
Medefe's false accusation that relied on the cop having claimed before he actually did

The point I made stands well enough with only the doctor not having received a message about having been blocked.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby trinicardinal on Wed Dec 14, 2011 7:32 am

geeze guys, give me a break here...lol... you folks are giving me a lot of reading.

ok so the following quote was posted on Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:31 pm (I have only quoted part of the post)

Rodion wrote:
MeDeFe wrote:This is also the big point you have not responded to. A viable alternative is presented, you say it's interesting, and subsequently ignore it completely. Given the circumstances I'm not certain whether that can be called a scumtell or not, it's like you're hell-bent on getting lynched whether it benefits town or not, a highly unusual behaviour for a townie, but even more so for a scum.


Mind you, I've actually put a lot of thought into that.

First, the possibility of a mafia roleblocker could get Jimfinn blocked (or killed) and force us to start D3 with no report on me.

If we are lucky enough not to have a roleblocker in the game, it all boils down to whether mafia has a framer or not (I don't believe mafia would have a busdriver as that is too powerful in mafia's hand): if they do, we're wasting Jim's N2 to get me D3 mislynched and explode another townie in the process; if they don't, I'm basically guaranteed to live until endgame (unless the godfather is willing to forfeit a 1-shot bulletproof - that maybe he doesn't even have - in order to get rid of me) and town's actions become more accurate throughout the game. With all the uncertainty regarding mafia powe roles, if I were to suggest the possibility of not lynching me today, a reasonable ammount of the influencing factors I'd raise is my high opinion of myself, which is something everyone else could instantly comdenm or frown upon.

Regardless, what's the point of me saying "guys, I'm the town bomb, let me live!"? It will only open a whole can of worms of people saying "he fake-claimed bomb in a last-ditch attempt at surviving", people will vote in a disorganized manner (but scum will be organized enough to stop at L-1 and not hammer) and we're 100% getting a townie to hammer and explode.

If you think town is better off by allowing me to live, fine, but that decision has to come from the other players, not from me. While that decision has not come, I'll behave the only possible way: trying to force scum to explode with me.

I hope I've answered everything you wanted to know. If I didn't, please let me know and I'll get to it as soon as possible.

Fasposted by Betiko: did not yet read his post.


The reason that I posted this part is that I noticed that Rodion again is talking about the Godfather might hammer and be saved because of the 1shot bulletproof... What is he trying to show here? bulletproof is not bomb proof so he will be killed immediately. Obviously This will be a plus for town - If Rodion is indeed town Bomb. I'm still in two minds about this as I mentioned before and I am going to lay out some possible scenarios

1) Rodion is town bomb
A) We hammer today (D2) in which case it is definitely beneficial for us to find someone who is mafia scum to hammer. Failing that it may be better to just let one of the volunteers hammer (strike after reading your posts for maybe 20 times I finally got where you are coming from and it does make some sense)
Pros - we confirm at least 2 roles and possibly more by association giving us a lot more information going to day 3 (regardless of who hammers)
we do not expose any more power roles (if a volunteer hammers)
the person forced to hammer may be a mafia member (if we force someone)
Cons - we might lose 2 town members leaving us 5 townies down (6 after Night phase) without any mafia lynches
we might expose another power role if we try to force someone to hammer

B) We do not lynch and instead lynch someone else (for whatever reason) and the cop investigates Rodion during the night - (Rodion returns guilty if ordinary mafia, innocent if Godfather or Town) - Given the assumption of Town Bomb being true in this scenario jim gets a return of Town. (This assumes no role block or Framing) The cop was not Roleblocked N1 so I assume no Roleblock N2
Pros - we confirm at least one role (possibly others by association)
- we may lynch scum
- If we mislynch Town we are down 2 after the night instead of 3
Cons - An innocent result on Rodion is still not proof since it could be a good fakeclaim with Rodion being Godfather
- if we make the wrong assumption on Rodion and he is Godfather we may have effectively sealed our fate.

2) Rodion is Mafia Godfather
A) We lynch Rodion D2 (whether by forced hammer or volunteer)
Pros - obvious one - mafia Godfather is dead... big plus for us
Cons - I can't really see any except the possibility that a mafia member makes the lnych and we accept that person as town.

B) We do not lynch and instead lynch someone else (for whatever reason) and the cop investigates Rodion during the night - (Rodion returns guilty if ordinary mafia, innocent if Godfather or Town) - In this scenario Rodion returns Innocent - we are not better off that before OR we accept as town and are in Even WORSE trouble (unless other night actions give us more info)
Pros - None that I can see (unless other night actions help us)
Cons - We are not really any better off than today
We could be in a lot of trouble if we accept Rodion as town if he is indeed Godfather

If he is Godfather then this is an extremely good fakeclaim and is being well played by Rodion in which case MeDeFe is quite correct here

MeDeFe wrote:
Reverse psychology says begging to live is the quickest way to get me lynched. I've already explained that if I got to the point where I was forced to claim and people still don't believe me, then the best I can do is get the right person to hammer me.

If you'd rather believe me or drop the case for a few days, fine, but the decision has to come from other people, not from me.

In that case reverse psychology also says that begging to be killed is the most certain way to stay alive. The way this game is going it may even be working, I can't make heads nor tails of your actions at the moment. You say "the decision has to come from other people", and yet you've been doing your damnedest to argue against every alternative course of action. So how about this: You shut up and let other people discuss the benefits and drawbacks of keeping you alive and either voting no lynch or pressuring someone else. Then maybe the 30% that spoke for those options before could properly present their side without being shouted down by you. Maybe then it will become viable even by your screwed up definition of "viable" equaling "supported by the majority", by that definition your own suggestion doesn't seem to be viable either right now, yet you keep arguing for it.

I'm serious, just shut up for a few days and let others argue the pros and cons.



BTW
Medefe's false accusation that relied on the cop having claimed before he actually did

The point I made stands well enough with only the doctor not having received a message about having been blocked.


3) Rodion is ordinary mafia member
A - hammer today
Pros - we get one scum plus for us
Cons - same as for Godfather (I can't really see any except the possibility that a mafia member makes the lnych and we accept that person as town.)

B - hammer someone else and investigate - Rodion turns up guilty in which case we hammer D3
Pros - we get at least one scum by D3
Cons - we might expose another power role in deciding on who else to lynch

I probably missed some stuff and would appreciate someone pointing out anything that I might have missed.


Given everything I think the best option is probably to hammer Rodion - I'll bring him to L-1 if you all wish. Then one of the volunteers hammer... since I think chap was leading in the volunteers then if a volunteer hammers I'd vote for chap.


That being said I'm still not 100% sure about strike and have to look a bit further into him but I do think that the better option is to hammer Rodion today. and I would vote for chap to do the hammering. If we insist on having someone other that our volunteers being pressured then I would have to say strike although I think it may not be our best option at this time.
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby Rodion on Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:05 am

MeDeFe wrote:In that case reverse psychology also says that begging to be killed is the most certain way to stay alive. The way this game is going it may even be working, I can't make heads nor tails of your actions at the moment. You say "the decision has to come from other people", and yet you've been doing your damnedest to argue against every alternative course of action. So how about this: You shut up and let other people discuss the benefits and drawbacks of keeping you alive and either voting no lynch or pressuring someone else. Then maybe the 30% that spoke for those options before could properly present their side without being shouted down by you. Maybe then it will become viable even by your screwed up definition of "viable" equaling "supported by the majority", by that definition your own suggestion doesn't seem to be viable either right now, yet you keep arguing for it.

I'm serious, just shut up for a few days and let others argue the pros and cons.


Just for the record, pressuring someone else beats voting no lynch any day of the week.

Alright, I'll stop posting here until saturday (unless I see something completely outrageous) or until you'd like to hear from me again (whichever comes first). Make sure nobody hammers anyone until that day comes.

Peace! ;)
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Re: [Official] The Nightmare Before Christmas Mafia Day 2

Postby betiko on Wed Dec 14, 2011 12:30 pm

I pretty much agree about what trini says.
I still want to stick to jimfinn's fos thing rather than asking dazza or chap to hammer.

And I think medefe is right; you should stop talking for a while rodion! If you are the bomb, it's not doing you/us any favour.
You say things a bit pretentious (even if they are not totally wrong) that might just excite even more people on your case as retaliation.
Your inverted psychology technique worked the oposite for me; as I was one of the guys supporting you the most and I thought it was odd to ask chapcrap and strike to kill you so bad, on top of the bomb claim being perfect for a scum.
I saw it either as:
-"come explode on me, i'm the bomb and i'm sure you 2 are scum"
-"i'm scum and by claiming bomb I can over act the bomb guy that wants townies-i-pretend-to-see-as-scum to explode on me as they won't do it, ready to overbluff them"

I also thought that you could not be certain both strike and chap would be scum at the same time. So this whole move remains odd to me, the inverted psychology explanation doens't fit completely in my understanding.

Now there is something you've said that kind of makes me read between lines in a good way, putting you in a certain situation that would explain certain things. I only think you said that because you know. Unfortunately it's not the type of things you can talk about openly here... but I might be wrong and you might have said it to make us believe something.


on another hand, the clown does look like a bomb! lol
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