[Official] Team CC Mafia [Finished]

[Commander9]

Apologies for not posting and not being too active, but I've not managed to be too active in any of my games lately. If all goes well, I'll try to make a bigger post/analysis tomorrow where we I'll suggest our next target.

As far as claiming goes, as you already know, I am King Achilles and my "buddy" so to speak is Jeraado. I can't say for sure that he's pro-town, but all of his actions are suggesting he hasn't been recruited, so I feel fairly comfortably with him.

[Metsfanmax]

If Jeraado is indeed pro-town and our count is right, then either safariguy is lying now about being MF or Squirrel was lying earlier about being ljex. At the time everyone accepted the story with some amount of hesitance because there wasn't a real way to confirm it; however, there was always the concern that cult would use my opening earlier as a way to fakeclaim with little pressure, so safari isn't cleared yet either. Even if one of those two is indeed cult, we can't safely kill them because it would be very clever for them to intentionally fakeclaim knowing we'd catch it and lynch the guy, only to find out it was a random vanilla cult protecting the recruiter. If we don't lynch the recruiter today, town loses, so caution is warranted.

[Commander9]

Agreed. Sax, can you please replace AoG? (Or modkill?)

[safariguy5]

Right, but then cult could easily clam up and we'd have to randomly lynch 1 out of 4 or 5 possible people and hope we hit the recruiter. Or, cult could fakeclaim and we'd have the same problem, except with maybe 1 or two more people. Any way I look at it, we're probably going to have to pick someone and go for them, roles and names aren't real important at this stage anyways besides the DK ability.

[Rodion]

I think there is at least 1 cultie between PCM and Metsfanmax. Reason: if one townie votes another, the 4 culties can get the townie speedlynched and win the game.

Conclusions:

a) PCM is cult and the other 3 culties can't speedlynch Mets without another townie voting on him.
b) Mets is cult and the 4 culties have no reason to speedlynch him.
c) Both are cult.
d) unlikely: town voted town and the 4 culties were not able to organize themselves in a way to get Mets speedlynched

If we consider that sacrificing a cult goon gives the cult the win (5-4 becomes 5-3, then cult needs to have a succesfull recruitment to go 4-4 and win - I'm not sure they'd win at 4-4, though, as Commander/Jeraado have a DK), we'd have to conclude that:

a) PCM is one of the goons
B) Mets is the recruiter

I'm still thinking on that, will talk more later. Opinions appreciated.

[Rodion]

Ammend: assuming cult can't communicate during the day (which is likely), maybe it is harder than it seems to get the 4 online to attempt the speedlynch on Mets and seal the game. That would raise the likelihood of both PCM and Mets being town. I'm still not sure on that, though. However, Mets did claim and he was not countered, so I would think that even if he's from the cult he's not the recruiter.
Fnsnev, jr zhfg cebgrpg Zrgf ng nyy pbfgf. V'z tbvat gb fzbxrteranqr guvf guernq, cyrnfr cynl nybat.
Considering everyone but AoG and Jimfinn claimed (if we considered Commander claimed for Jeraado) and people are not willing to think AoG is the recruiter, vote Jimfinn.

[Metsfanmax]

What is this going on in Rodion's post above (it's written in small, invisible font -- quote his post to see it)?

Fnsnev, jr zhfg cebgrpg Zrgf ng nyy pbfgf. V'z tbvat gb fzbxrteranqr guvf guernq, cyrnfr cynl nybat.

[Metsfanmax]

What is this going on in Rodion's post above (it's written in small, invisible font -- quote his post to see it)?

Fnsnev, jr zhfg cebgrpg Zrgf ng nyy pbfgf. V'z tbvat gb fzbxrteranqr guvf guernq, cyrnfr cynl nybat.

Maybe too many crytoquips in my life, but I figured it out, it's a simple cypher that says:

Safari, we must protect Mets at all costs. I'm going to smokegrenade this thread, please play along.

The cipher is:

F = S
N = A
E = R
V = I
J = W
Z = M
H = U
G = T
C = P
B = O
Y = L
X = K
Q = D

[Rodion]

Click image to enlarge.

I think I just lost the will to play this game.

[pancakemix]

Oh, fucking hell. Well at least we know Rodion's cult. Unvote

Summary:

Squirrel: ljex, JOAT. No clearing actions himself, but consistent with Metsfan's actions. Could be cult ("I'd consider JOAT to be 'special').
Mets: MrBenn, RB. Squirrel's actions support his claim. If he's cult, revealing that is a ballsy move.
C9: King A, super role. Was definitely recruited by town. Didn't know cult's numbers.
Jeradoo: C9's "buddy". No solid info, but C9 trusts him.
Rodion: Cult.
Safari: MasterFenrir, Bomb. There's so much WIFOM here, it's not even funny. Cult possible. Bomb sounds like a very safe claim.
Jimfinn: No intel. Claim please.
AoG: Please replace him.
Me: DoomYoshi's confession proves I'm a busdriver.

[Metsfanmax]

Oh, fucking hell. Well at least we know Rodion's cult. Unvote

I don't know about you but I'm still confused as hell as to what it means. Town would have a vested interest in protecting me since I can roleblock the recruiter tonight (if we know who he is), but Rodion just got done possibly accusing me of cult. Why would he say something like that? Why would a cult member want to "protect" me? Isn't C9 the most important player we have right now? Also Rodion's alignment never was clarified; his last few posts have been strong for the town but he's a smart guy and could possibly be guiding us to a lynch of the wrong player even while his statements come off as pro-town. And what does it mean to smokegrenade a thread?

[jimfinn]

I'm also going to bet that Mets is not recruiter, since he exposed Rodion's trick. He might be cult, playing for the win as a recruited player, but he also could just as easily be town. I'm almost tempted to say Rodion is the recruiter, offering up Safari and Mets (possibly both recruits) as sacrificial lambs. Not going to vote, in case Rodion's going for the aforementioned speedlynch traps.

Either way, there's a ton of WIFOM in Rodion's invisitext.

[Mr. Squirrel]

What is this going on in Rodion's post above (it's written in small, invisible font -- quote his post to see it)?

Fnsnev, jr zhfg cebgrpg Zrgf ng nyy pbfgf. V'z tbvat gb fzbxrteranqr guvf guernq, cyrnfr cynl nybat.

Isn't it generally against the rules to write things in code or in languages that others can't understand? Couldn't mafia or cult just use it to talk during the day? (as rodion is doing now) I thought I read that way back when in the rules of some games, that all text has to be visible and able to be understood by all.

[safariguy5]

Like heck if I could understand that. Mets must be a codebreaker or something. Even if we do identify who all the cult is, it still doesn't mean we figured out who the recruiter is. And there's no guarantee that mets blocks the right person if we do go to night.

[Metsfanmax]

Like heck if I could understand that. Mets must be a codebreaker or something. Even if we do identify who all the cult is, it still doesn't mean we figured out who the recruiter is. And there's no guarantee that mets blocks the right person if we do go to night.

That's weak man. I expected better from you.

[safariguy5]

Like heck if I could understand that. Mets must be a codebreaker or something. Even if we do identify who all the cult is, it still doesn't mean we figured out who the recruiter is. And there's no guarantee that mets blocks the right person if we do go to night.

That's weak man. I expected better from you.

I'm a mafia player. If I was good at ciphers, I'd be working for the CIA or something.

[Metsfanmax]

Also guys, don't forget the possibility that Rodion could be meta-trolling us -- maybe the comment itself was a metaphorical smoke grenade, forcing us to get lost in a sub-plot that isn't really there.

[Rodion]

Squirrel - I have never seen that rule (nobody ever told me that). I apologize if what I did is against mafia etiquette.

You can lynch me with you want to.

Or we could discuss a deal in which one townie helps the cult today and is rewarded with a recruitment (and a win) tonight. I think PCM is the perfect candidate, as his busdrive could frustrate a deal with anyone else. Being the only 100% confirmed cult member, I'll be handling all aspects of the negotiation.

[Metsfanmax]

Or we could discuss a deal in which one townie helps the cult today and is rewarded with a recruitment (and a win) tonight. I think PCM is the perfect candidate, as his busdrive could frustrate a deal with anyone else. Being the only 100% confirmed cult member, I'll be handling all aspects of the negotiation.

Town still has good chances to win without anyone making any deals. We've got two roles (at least) that can preclude a recruitment. If we lynch you today, it'll be 5 vs. 3. Tonight pcm and I will target two suspected cult and we'll have a pretty good chance of shutting down the recruitment. Plus there's still a chance that you're the recruiter either way.

[Rodion]

I'll help.

Unvote.

Vote Rodion.

[Metsfanmax]

Be careful guys, he could be a jester or bomb and this is pretty likely if he's pushing a lynch of himself like this. Alternatively, he's really confident in the cult's odds if we do lynch him.

[pancakemix]

Be careful guys, he could be a jester or bomb and this is pretty likely if he's pushing a lynch of himself like this. Alternatively, he's really confident in the cult's odds if we do lynch him.

Of course he's confident. We guess wrong, they win.

Although, the 4-4 endgame scenario doesn't account for all factors (Commander's kill for example). In that scenario we still do have a shot, technically. I wouldn't bank on that, though; each mod is different.

[safariguy5]

Or we could discuss a deal in which one townie helps the cult today and is rewarded with a recruitment (and a win) tonight. I think PCM is the perfect candidate, as his busdrive could frustrate a deal with anyone else. Being the only 100% confirmed cult member, I'll be handling all aspects of the negotiation.

Town still has good chances to win without anyone making any deals. We've got two roles (at least) that can preclude a recruitment. If we lynch you today, it'll be 5 vs. 3. Tonight pcm and I will target two suspected cult and we'll have a pretty good chance of shutting down the recruitment. Plus there's still a chance that you're the recruiter either way.

All PCM does is switch people. Recruiter still hits his target, won't affect anything. Maybe if he manages to switch the recruitee with the recruiter, but odds are small of that happening.

[Rodion]

Be careful guys, he could be a jester or bomb and this is pretty likely if he's pushing a lynch of himself like this. Alternatively, he's really confident in the cult's odds if we do lynch him.

Of course he's confident. We guess wrong, they win.

Although, the 4-4 endgame scenario doesn't account for all factors (Commander's kill for example). In that scenario we still do have a shot, technically. I wouldn't bank on that, though; each mod is different.

Cooperate with us and we go to 100% win odds.

[Rodion]

If you'd like to make a deal and win, just vote on Commander and I'll worry about the rest.