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Evens Are Better Than Odds!

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Evens Are Better Than Odds!

Postby ISN2 on Sun Feb 06, 2011 2:18 pm

Evens Are Better Than Odds!

In most of games, you start with some territories and 3 armies on each of them.

For example in a 1vs1 game in Classic map each players starts with 14 territories and 3 armies on each, from the experience that I have in playing real standard RISK game (Attacker has 3 dices and defender 2) always it's better to have even number of armies than odds, why? I will you give examples ...

Deploying:
Let's again think to a Classic 1vs1 game, it's your first turn, we have 14 territories with 3 armies and +4 for deploy, let's say we want to attack to a territory of enemy that for sure has 3 armies, if we deploy all 4 on 1 territory then we will have a 7, attacking with 3 dices to 2 dices has a "37.17%" chance of win double dices, so if we attack and lose double we will have 5 left and another attack with chance of "37.17%" winning double, but if we lose double again then we will have a 3 left that gives us only 2 dices for attack and it's a mistake to attack with 2 dices to 2 dices ...

But if in start we deploy 3 on 1 territory and 1 on another bordering territory, then we will have a 6 and a 4, this gives us 3 times of attacking with "3 dices", so if we be unlucky and lose doubles, this time we have 3 times of "37.17%" chance for winning doubles ...

Also when we lose a double on our 4 or 2 doubles on our 6 what is left is a 2 army territory that still has 2 dices for defending.

Reinforcing:
Another thing is when we are reinforcing, we have a lot of 3 territories, if we left them all 3, it is a mistake, because we can not attack with any of them as they have 2 dices for attack, and if we reinforce them all on 1 territory it's still wrong, because the enemy can attack a lot of easy 1's there and he will have "65.97%" chance to win any of them. the best thing to do is to leave 2 on bordering territories with enemy and fort the other 1s to somewhere for attack.

For example we have 2 territories with 3 armies, each bordering 2 territories of enemy that each of them has 3 armies too. if we reinforce 2 on another territory, we will have a 5 and a 1, we have only 1 chance of winning double, if we lose double we won't have any chance and we will have a 1 army territory that is so easy to take for enemy to get his card, or make us under 12 territories or so ...

But if we reinforce 1 on another territory, in attack we still have 1 chance of winning double, but in defense we have more chance to win.

I didn't count draw situations in this method, just double wins and double loses, not 1 win and 1 lose, but even if we want to count them, still in a 3 dices attack to 2 dices, as I said chance of double win is "37.17%", while chance of draw is "33.58%".

This is what I used and my experience showed me it works, what do you think? am I right?

Note: This is only for standard RISK games like this site that attacker has 3 dices and defender 2 dices, in other situations there may be better methods as I played some RISK games that give defender 3 dices or attacker 4 dices in some conditions.
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Re: Evens Are Better Than Odds!

Postby rdsrds2120 on Sun Feb 06, 2011 3:00 pm

The general concept of attacking from more places is true, however, I don't know if, say, having an 11 and a 5 attack a single territory is more or less advantageous than a 10 and a 6 or a 12 and a 4, as the title and context of this post implies (evens are better).

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Re: Evens Are Better Than Odds!

Postby SirSebstar on Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:20 am

and, this is something i have noticed.
it can be even more deadly to yourself. consider a country able to be attacked by 8 sides, you place 8 troops, one on each. each now has 4 armies. you loose 8 battles. Normally you would have lost 8 troops, now you lost 16..

true story
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Re: Evens Are Better Than Odds!

Postby ISN2 on Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:06 am

SirSebstar wrote:and, this is something i have noticed.
it can be even more deadly to yourself. consider a country able to be attacked by 8 sides, you place 8 troops, one on each. each now has 4 armies. you loose 8 battles. Normally you would have lost 8 troops, now you lost 16..

true story


That's the matter of chance, you could lose 100 to 2! it's something in normal with a low percent to happen.

In your example you have 8 territories with 4, so you have 8 attacks with 3 dices against 2 dices, so you have 8 chance of "37.17%" winning while your rival has 8 chance of "29.26%" to win.
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Re: Evens Are Better Than Odds!

Postby SirSebstar on Tue Feb 08, 2011 11:10 am

obviously..
awareness of the bottomline however is often lost in the heat of lost battles
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