Modern Warfare Mafia Day 6(Town Win!)

[safariguy5]

Vote Count
ga7-1 (spiesr)
wercool-2 (strike wolf, taco_man1)
cena-rules-2 (ga7, Army of GOD)
strike wolf-1 (cena-rules)
no lynch-1 (vodean)
LSU Tiger Josh-4 (pmchugh, wercool, gregwolf121, UTAlan)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[strike wolf]

unvote FOS: LSU FOS: Vodean

I won't vote either right now as I think we have enough votes on LSU to warrant some kind of defense from his statement. I can't remember being in a game where a no lynch was good for anybody but mafia or third party, I don't see how this one is any different.

[LSU Tiger Josh]

Simple right now we have one cop investigation done and depending on who the bandwagon goes on, they either can reveal themself on an innocent or remain quiet and gather more evidence on who is scum. By not doing a bandwagon, we allow the cop to hopefully give us two pieces of information tomorrow on who is scum or who is town rather than accidentally screwing the town up by taking out the cop or doc since more times than not town ends up killing off another town member rather than scum on random lynch day 1.

[wercool]

ok that makes sence unvote no lynch

[strike wolf]

It makes sense from the stand point that we don't want to lynch the wrong person but not on every level. If we simply just vote no lynch every day how are we supposed to get information for whom the cops should investigate? and lets say the cops investigation doesn't come up with a guilty party what evidence will we have to go on for tomorrow? I'm not saying let's rush to lynch the first person who seems slightly suspicious obviously but laying back and saying let's let any cops that we have in this game handle it without anything to go on is a poor strategy as well.

[pmchugh]

Simple right now we have one cop investigation done and depending on who the bandwagon goes on, they either can reveal themself on an innocent or remain quiet and gather more evidence on who is scum. By not doing a bandwagon, we allow the cop to hopefully give us two pieces of information tomorrow on who is scum or who is town rather than accidentally screwing the town up by taking out the cop or doc since more times than not town ends up killing off another town member rather than scum on random lynch day 1.

Mate, we can't just sit around waiting for a cop to come out and say he is scum and then lynch. We've got to be proactive, and we had a night already so the excuse oh we find out information at night is stupid here. We've effectively already had one no lynch and without bandwagons we have no day information to go on!

You know all of this and the only reasonable explanation for this tactic is that your scum or a jester.

ok that makes sence unvote no lynch

Seriously dude, do you have a mind of your own?

[LSU Tiger Josh]

You know all of this and the only reasonable explanation for this tactic is that your scum or a jester.

Actually I'm neither. Starting with a night action and no kill and then getting a 2nd one at the cost of one player chosen by the scum is quite a good tradeoff to me. a 1 for one trade starting in daytime not so much, but when we can clear 15% of the players with a 2nd innocent or else get one of the few scum in the game by taking a 2nd night I will take that trade anytime in a 12 player game.

[pmchugh]

You know all of this and the only reasonable explanation for this tactic is that your scum or a jester.

Actually I'm neither. Starting with a night action and no kill and then getting a 2nd one at the cost of one player chosen by the scum is quite a good tradeoff to me. a 1 for one trade starting in daytime not so much, but when we can clear 15% of the players with a 2nd innocent or else get one of the few scum in the game by taking a 2nd night I will take that trade anytime in a 12 player game.

First off we know f*ck all about the setup, might be insane cops, busdrivers, the mafia could kill off the cop. If anything like this happens then we are screwed game over, mafia win. And even if the cop succeeds then one extra townie is very little loss as a bigger % of players are ruled out.

In mafia you NEED info from the day, and if we just end it now then we gain nothing and rely entirely on luck.

[strike wolf]

IF we don't vote somebody out we don't lynch anybody. No matter how we disguise it that's basically what it turns into. Your move for a no lynch makes sense on the most superficial of layers but if we cannot use the information we get by questioning people's motives in the day time we have nothing to go on at night. This game is just like any other mafia game we will get no leads unless we press people into questioning their decisions when they say something suspicious and whether we come to a lynch at the end of the day or not, we at least give any town power roles more information to go by. Sitting around and voting no lynch on the first day will get us exactly the same thing it would give us in any other game...nothing but hoping that a cop comes by and reveals crucial information. A cop can only investigate one person a night and in a game this size as small as it may be the chances of him finding scum in either of the first two nights are against him.

vote:LSU Your logic does not hold water.

[strike wolf]

You know all of this and the only reasonable explanation for this tactic is that your scum or a jester.

Actually I'm neither. Starting with a night action and no kill and then getting a 2nd one at the cost of one player chosen by the scum is quite a good tradeoff to me. a 1 for one trade starting in daytime not so much, but when we can clear 15% of the players with a 2nd innocent or else get one of the few scum in the game by taking a 2nd night I will take that trade anytime in a 12 player game.

First off we know f*ck all about the setup, might be insane cops, busdrivers, the mafia could kill off the cop. If anything like this happens then we are screwed game over, mafia win. And even if the cop succeeds then one extra townie is very little loss as a bigger % of players are ruled out.

In mafia you NEED info from the day, and if we just end it now then we gain nothing and rely entirely on luck.

A good point we do not know what kind of power roles we have in this game...They could be very good ones that will help us a lot down the stretch but they could also be ones that may not help us much at all, we cannot guarantee that we have a cop that can be depended upon or that he will survive the night and even when we have a cop we feel we can trust to both find the correct scum and be protected at night if he has no information from us to go on by what he found in the day than he is a lot less likely to find scum.

[spiesr]

Actually I'm neither. Starting with a night action and no kill and then getting a 2nd one at the cost of one player chosen by the scum is quite a good tradeoff to me. a 1 for one trade starting in daytime not so much, but when we can clear 15% of the players with a 2nd innocent or else get one of the few scum in the game by taking a 2nd night I will take that trade anytime in a 12 player game.

What is up LSU? Are you are cop or something that is makes you sure of this strategy's success?
A quick, but by no means complete, search didn't show you really pushing this strategy in past games. So I ask, what is different this time around?

[LSU Tiger Josh]

I'm for it when we're starting with a night 0. normally we don't so it would be a 1 for 1 trade instead of the 2 for 1 deal that we get with starting at night 0 and letting the cop do their business two nights.

[safariguy5]

Vote Count
ga7-1 (spiesr)
wercool-1 (taco_man1)
cena-rules-2 (ga7, Army of GOD)
strike wolf-1 (cena-rules)
no lynch-2 (vodean, wercool)
LSU Tiger Josh-4 (strike wolf, pmchugh, gregwolf121, UTAlan)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Great activity guys, keep it up! No deadline, although if anyone would like me to prod someone, I will.

[kwanton]

prod ga7 plz

[ga7]

DIY!
Actually, I'd normally disagree with LSU but there's two ways to look at it. I think the setting and the fact we had a Night 0 with no kills allowed makes it likely to have a lot of killers. I could picture a two-man mafia and a SK + a vig easily. So while we may lose power roles in the night, randomly wagonning right now and forcing to claim one or several townies would help the scum to pick their targets. I just don't trust the town to pick the right person at this point of the game, to me the most tempting lynch target would be wercool for sheer ineptitude so far, but the small line up makes me think that this kind of wagon has way higher odds of outing a power role when we don't really need to than to find scum. Another point that could be interesting is that if my theory of 3 scum is correct, seeing as we already had wagons, regardless of who gets killed we can get decent info on that.
In summary, in an ideal scenario where we could have only one NK per night, lynching someone now could be more beneficial. In a more likely scenario where the town's margin of manoeuver is thin, we are better off with taking it easy. Only thing that could change my mind right now is the presence of a day SK, which would be quite surprising at this point, but not impossible.

[wercool]

wow, that sounds scummy. fos ga7

[pmchugh]

DIY!
Actually, I'd normally disagree with LSU but there's two ways to look at it. I think the setting and the fact we had a Night 0 with no kills allowed makes it likely to have a lot of killers. I could picture a two-man mafia and a SK + a vig easily. So while we may lose power roles in the night, randomly wagonning right now and forcing to claim one or several townies would help the scum to pick their targets. I just don't trust the town to pick the right person at this point of the game, to me the most tempting lynch target would be wercool for sheer ineptitude so far, but the small line up makes me think that this kind of wagon has way higher odds of outing a power role when we don't really need to than to find scum. Another point that could be interesting is that if my theory of 3 scum is correct, seeing as we already had wagons, regardless of who gets killed we can get decent info on that.
In summary, in an ideal scenario where we could have only one NK per night, lynching someone now could be more beneficial. In a more likely scenario where the town's margin of manoeuver is thin, we are better off with taking it easy. Only thing that could change my mind right now is the presence of a day SK, which would be quite surprising at this point, but not impossible.

So you reckon there could be 3 kills tonight and so we should no lynch? Who are you and what did you do with the real ga7?

And talking about we already have wagons, we have that info now so why wait till tomorow and the town could shrink by up to 3?

We have limited lynches here, so yes we should take care but we have to use them or else sit and pray as you guys seem to want to do

wow, that sounds scummy. fos ga7

lmao, i miss animo.

[strike wolf]

3 killing roles in a 12 player game? Even if one of them is working for town that seems a bit much.

[ga7]

So you reckon there could be 3 kills tonight and so we should no lynch? Who are you and what did you do with the real ga7?

And talking about we already have wagons, we have that info now so why wait till tomorow and the town could shrink by up to 3?

We have limited lynches here, so yes we should take care but we have to use them or else sit and pray as you guys seem to want to do

wow, that sounds scummy. fos ga7

lmao, i miss animo.

I'm saying I'd rather start day 2 with 3 dead townies than 4 as it would be game over. Obviously there should be only 2 if we have a vig that is not completely crazy, and there might be only be one in which case we will know that we can just lynch without worrying about lylo coming too soon. But I think there are good chances we'll see two kills anyway. And again, it's a small game with a lot of potential killing roles, I just wish I remembered how to do odds as I'm pretty sure the chances of a cop finding scum with two nights and lessay 3 scum total far outweight the chances of that cop to be killed for instance.
Of course I'm not saying we should sit there and do nothing while waiting for night actions, but in a game this small town could lose in 3 days if we just go and lynch/force power role(s) to claim right off the bat. The fact we had a Night 0 makes me think town needed it to even the odds. We can really use that advantage if we have more info both from potential night 1 kills and wagons (your point on this made no sense, we don't need the wagons to end in a lynch for them to be useful afterwards) and of course from the additional night actions.
The point is, small games can be lost very easily for town, we had a night 0 for some reason, and we don't know how bloody nights will be. Three reasons why we should take it easy today. On the other hand, I guess we can just cater to our bloodthirsty needs.

[vodean]

i mostly said no vote because at that point there was no evidence. Ga7 seemed pretty, summy, but he has not has a chance to defend himself, so i say wait on that one. Maybe vote LSU, just to pressure him into a roleclaim. Lets see.

[spiesr]

The fact we had a Night 0 makes me think town needed it to even the odds. We can really use that advantage if we have more info both from potential night 1 kills and wagons (your point on this made no sense, we don't need the wagons to end in a lynch for them to be useful afterwards) and of course from the additional night actions.
The point is, small games can be lost very easily for town, we had a night 0 for some reason, and we don't know how bloody nights will be.

My assumption for night zero's existence was that this game must have recruiting roles...

[safariguy5]

Vote Count
ga7-1 (spiesr)
wercool-1 (taco_man1)
cena-rules-2 (ga7, Army of GOD)
strike wolf-1 (cena-rules)
no lynch-1 (wercool)
LSU Tiger Josh-5 (strike wolf, pmchugh, gregwolf121, UTAlan, vodean)

LSu Tiger Josh is at L-2.
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[LSU Tiger Josh]

It makes sense from the stand point that we don't want to lynch the wrong person but not on every level. If we simply just vote no lynch every day how are we supposed to get information for whom the cops should investigate? and lets say the cops investigation doesn't come up with a guilty party what evidence will we have to go on for tomorrow? I'm not saying let's rush to lynch the first person who seems slightly suspicious obviously but laying back and saying let's let any cops that we have in this game handle it without anything to go on is a poor strategy as well.

I never said we had to no vote "every day". In a game of 12, if we get 2 investigations done with only 1 loss via scums choice taking place than that that leaves only 9 unaccounted for. This gives us a much better chance at getting the random choice lynched properly. In fact, with a no lynch, 1 cop, two investigations, and the night kill by only scum we'll have information on 33% of the characters in the game and can make more educated decisions after that. I still disagree with a no lynch when we start with a daytime, but starting on a night without any deaths, I'm more than happy to do a no lynch to let the cop find either 2 innocents or else a scum and an innocent since a guilty scum would've been announced at this time.

[LSU Tiger Josh]

IF we don't vote somebody out we don't lynch anybody. No matter how we disguise it that's basically what it turns into. Your move for a no lynch makes sense on the most superficial of layers but if we cannot use the information we get by questioning people's motives in the day time we have nothing to go on at night. This game is just like any other mafia game we will get no leads unless we press people into questioning their decisions when they say something suspicious and whether we come to a lynch at the end of the day or not, we at least give any town power roles more information to go by. Sitting around and voting no lynch on the first day will get us exactly the same thing it would give us in any other game...nothing but hoping that a cop comes by and reveals crucial information. A cop can only investigate one person a night and in a game this size as small as it may be the chances of him finding scum in either of the first two nights are against him.

vote:LSU Your logic does not hold water.

Boy we got a bunch of dumbfucks that can't bother thinking outside the box. Even if the cop finds town both nights that will leave us with only 9 other people to choose from with 33% of them scum under conventional setup with 3 scum or 46% chance if there happens to be a 4th scum person. If we do a random lynch right now, most likely power role gets revealed scum gets easy hunt at night knowing that power role if the dumbfucks in the town with me don't decide to lynch said power role when all is unknown, and then be really boned tomorow by losing the claimed power role most likely or getting a second power role revealed like a bunch of jackasses since some people can't sit back and let the cop do his job and find two other people out before a random uneducated lynch. Vodean you have contributed exactly nothing to this game other than doing a no lynch because you didn't know what to do and then try to force a claim at -2 on stupid reasoning that you didn't even come up with.

[LSU Tiger Josh]

Cena even though you might be town, you still need to post.