Chuck Mafia, Game over, Town Wins!

[Thezzaruz]

There is NO reason in the world to hold it in at this time. There is no guaranttee that you won't get bumped off before telling us and with the way you're hinting back and forth even if we lynch YOU and it confirms that you're a cop we have most likely our last scum outed by you.

I have to agree. There really is no reason to not offer up all investigative info we have atm (that goes for you to Tal, last 2 actions please ).

[icedagger]

Vote Ice There is NO reason in the world to hold it in at this time. There is no guaranttee that you won't get bumped off before telling us and with the way you're hinting back and forth even if we lynch YOU and it confirms that you're a cop we have most likely our last scum outed by you.

I've told you why I'd prefer not to say. I don't really understand the jump from "I don't understand why you wouldn't tell us who your innocent results are at this point" to "you're more likely to be scum than sam" though. As nzen puts it, this is a "religious" disagreement between two opinions on what helps town more. You might think not revealing innocent results isn't the optimum move for the cop at this stage of the game and I can understand how people could reach different conclusions on that. What I don't understand is how it would make me more likely to be scum- faking innocent results really isn't very hard.

If someone can make a persuasive argument as to why a fake claiming mafia wouldn't want to state investigations, or if it really takes it to get a lynch on sam, I'll post my investigations. I accept that mafia have a lot of targets already so it wouldn't be the end of the world, I just think the cons still outweigh the pros.

[Talapus]

There is NO reason in the world to hold it in at this time. There is no guaranttee that you won't get bumped off before telling us and with the way you're hinting back and forth even if we lynch YOU and it confirms that you're a cop we have most likely our last scum outed by you.

I have to agree. There really is no reason to not offer up all investigative info we have atm (that goes for you to Tal, last 2 actions please ;)).

Ummm not quite sure why you want the last 2 nights as the night before lasts results were already given, but I'll restate them anyway. 2 nights ago I chose LSU......no change according to him. Last night I chose no one. I did this because all 4 nights so far had absolutely no effect what so ever on the game to our knowledge. So, last night I chose no one in hopes that something different may happen. Example: Maybe someone is blocking me but their role changes or they have to do something else if I don't complete my night action. I know, total leap in the dark....but since my night actions have been completely usless thus far I figured I'd try it. And ya.......no difference I guess. God I feel like such a useless townie.

[Nzen]

That disappoints, but was beside the point anyway. Fewer people are talking, very likely our last mafia among them. He obviously has no incentive to respond to the two chances of being somewhat revealed. For example, sam_levi hasn't responded to the hanging pm question nor has he responded to icedagger's accusation six days ago. The long night didn't help (Talapus, it wasn't just you, but tell / if you are deliberately not acting), but we have posted daily since Tuesday.

At worst, icedagger is lying and we lose perhaps two of town but lynch him the next day. If he were bussing his partner, LSU and Talapus could both 'convert' him tonight, if neither succeeds ... he wouldn't admit it. But, perhaps he might fumble the claim and that converter could warn us. Or, he is telling us the truth and we lynch the (pen?)-ultimate mafiosi.

I urge you to vote for sam.

[Talapus]

Oh, I did PM the mod and say no night action.....so, wasn't my fault night lasted so long.

[Thezzaruz]

Ummm not quite sure why you want the last 2 nights as the night before lasts results were already given, but I'll restate them anyway. 2 nights ago I chose LSU......no change according to him.

Ah sorry, forgot to put it in my notes.

So nothing new then, too bad. Can't say I blame you though as you and LSU have had a total of 10 possible actions (one not used and one done doubly) result in no one admitting a changed role. And while both the 2 dead (out of the 8 targeted) was scum that can hardly be true for the other 6 too as we would then have 11 scum minimum in this game (including both you and LSU ).

[icedagger]

So um yeah... possibly we could get back to the minor issue of the guilty result on sam?

[LSU Tiger Josh]

Still waiting for some to confirm if they did or did not receive a changed role last night from my night action.

[icedagger]

Mine didn't change

[Nzen]

Still waiting for some to confirm if they did or did not receive a changed role last night from my night action.

Really? (complaining omitted.
So we are waiting for sam_levi_11, ace1217, cowboyz, Fircoal, captainwalrus. I am half inclined to prod them myself.

[captainwalrus]

Was I prodded?
I have nothing to say, my role did not change or anything.

[icedagger]

Was I prodded?
I have nothing to say, my role did not change or anything.

A claimed cop says he has a guilty result and you have nothing to say? Really?

[/]

Still waiting for some to confirm if they did or did not receive a changed role last night from my night action.

Really? (complaining omitted.
So we are waiting for sam_levi_11, ace1217, cowboyz, Fircoal, captainwalrus. I am half inclined to prod them myself.

ok, I'll send prods tomorrow, I seem to have a replacement lined up too.

[captainwalrus]

Vote Sam
I think I missed the part where ice claimed, I would have done that earlier

[/]

Vote count

sam_levi_11; 3 votes: icedagger, Nzen, captainwalrus
icedagger; 1 vote: LSU Tiger Josh
takes 6 to lynch
5 day deadline starting now

[Nzen]

LSU, Talapus, Thezzaruz, and anyone else reading what argument or feeling keeps you from voting for sam_levi? Perhaps I can convince you or you can show me an error in my own analysis. Ideally, we would wait for sam's defense and cowboyz/Fircoal/ace1217 to admit whether you converted them or not. The slow pace of discussion and new deadline indicate we are out of ideal territory.

What alternative has the same potential?

[LSU Tiger Josh]

1. I have my vote on Ice.
2. I won't vote on what he claims until he substantiates his other night actions

[icedagger]

Sigh

Night 1- william- town result
Night 2- pmc- scum result
Night 3- talapus- town result
Night 4- LSU- town result
Night 5- sam- Fulcrum result

[Thezzaruz]

Sigh

That was your "bad things will happen if I tell" info???

2 that's already dead and 2 that is long since claimed (of whom neither is questioned and one is already cleared) plus your alleged scum result. How the hell did you figure that anything bad could possibly come from revealing that???

[icedagger]

I have already explained why I don't like revealing innocent results when it's not necessary. There's really no reason why I would fake this claim unless you think it's LyLo, which would be ridiculous with the number of dead scum we have already. Your refusal to vote sam in the face of all logic has been noted...

[Thezzaruz]

I have already explained why I don't like revealing innocent results when it's not necessary.

Yes yes, I can understand the principle argument but it's completely irrelevant and a extremely poor argument in our situation as the one thing we crave is info while we've got heaps of bodies to spare.
Also I have to say that the info you had was about as "meh" as it could possibly be and going "kill him because I said so" instead just doesn't inspire trust.

There's really no reason why I would fake this claim unless you think it's LyLo

That also makes for a classic WIFOM situation though.

Your refusal to vote sam in the face of all logic has been noted...

Logic is the one thing you haven't showed so far tbh. I'm still not convinced I trust you but let me ponder this a bit more and I'll likely throw in a sam vote tomorrow.

[Nzen]

There's really no reason why I would fake this claim unless you think it's LyLo

That also makes for a classic WIFOM situation though.

That's why I try to weigh everyone else's incentives and the probabilities of their apparent and declared behavior. I don't trust it with certainty, but its better than the alternatives. No one can tell whether the unresponsive players will cooperate with LSU. I can't prove a negative, but sam_levi has had eleven days to notice the daily updating thread.

So either icedagger is leading us to town, bussing a fellow, or truthfully reporting his night result. Sam is either mafia or town but hasn't offered much in the way of substance ever. He did help ferret out Thezzaruz day one. Metagame thinking suggests this would create a conflict of interest if icedagger were mafiosi and bussed him (because as town or neutral, Thezzaruz would know one of his opponents). If you prefer a more straight forward reason, I can't imagine his anti-town peers would let him sacrifice them a second time.

Fine, icedagger didn't comply immediately. But, compare his contribution with sam_levi. Rereading, I see the above and he supports LSU and interacted with me and others. Don't let the offense of his useless initial accusation and disappearance undermine the use of evidence.

Or, he is a lyncher taking his last stab at personal victory. I have no rationalization against that.

[icedagger]

Look, it's pretty simple.

Scenarios-

1. I am indeed a town cop with a fulcrum result on sam.We lynch sam. A mafioso is lynched. Yay.
2. I'm scum and lying, sam is town. We lynch sam today, and then me tomorrow. We're down one pro-town character and one mafia, a situation that clearly benefits town. Yay.
3. I'm scum and sam is my scum buddy. We lynch sam today. A mafia is lynched. Yay.
4. I'm a lyncher- While impossible to rule out, it really doesn't fit with my claimed character, which hasn't been countered. Also, my cop claim hasn't been countered. While it's possible I could have fake claimed both of these and got lucky, it's really not very likely.

There's no wifom involved. Regardless of my alignment town comes out top in this situation, unless I'm a very lucky and reckless lyncher. My reluctance to reveal innocent results keeps being mentioned but it's completely irrelevant- a fakeclaiming mafia can provide innocent results with just as much accuracy as a town cop. It has no bearing on my alignment.

[Talapus]

Ok, I'm at work now but will try to get on when I get home and reread these arguments. There is too much going on at the moment and too many possibilities to skim and guess. I like the arguing though......this is what we needed if we planned on getting anywhere.

[LSU Tiger Josh]

Unvote Vote Sam the information you revealed at this point did not help scum out at all. For you to state that it would was ridiculous.