End game mathematics.

[Kugelblitz22]

Does anyone know of a formula that calculates the odds of taking someone out of the game over multiple spaces? I spent about the last hour trying to figure it out but I'm not that good with numbers. I will figure it out one way or another before I die. I hope.

[maniacmath17]

Well you have to add up all their territories, and subtract that from the troops you are attacking with since you have to leave 1 in each of those countries. Then from there you just do the basic calculations for each attack.

[Captain Crash]

Depends on what you use to decide if you are going to win one territory or not.
Many options exist:
2*E or 2*E + 1 are two fairly common ones.

Which ever method, these are generally just going to give you a reasonable chance of success (see numerous posts re 'dice'). Not give you a guaranteed occupying force.

Over successive territories then you would need to add all these together.
PLUS add one for each army left behind to occupy

e.g.
Enemy territories in succession 6,3,3,1,1,1

If we use method 1 above we get:
2*(6+3+3+1+1+1) = 30 +5 = 35
method 2:
2*(6+3+3+1+1+1) + 2*6 = 36 + 5 = 41

Although this would have to be considered conservative (both as overkill and ultra safe)....just check out the dice posts that abound on this site.
Absolute minimum? Attacking with 3d each time for the above scenario you would need:-
5 (1 for each territory left behind) plus 3 to attack with = 8.
And 8v6 is no easy win but happens often enough.

A third method is 2E +1 for each territory after. In same scenario then you would start with 2*6 + 5 = 17.

Although I'm sure there are many methods and then it depends on how lucky your feeling at the time, or how conservative/aggresive you are playing!!

Either way when the dice are against you...walk away!

[Kugelblitz22]

Thank-you guys!

[maniacmath17]

Captain Crash's post is definitely a good one to look at when you want to give yourself a good chance at killing the player, but you don't always need those kind of numbers. If you just want to know whether or not you have at least a 50/50 chance you simply subtract their number of troops from your armies and multiply by the chances of winning.

For example, lets say player x has 12 territories, all with 1 army on them. The statistics show that for every 1 you lose, he will lose 2. So to have about a 50% chance of eliminating the player you would need an army of 18 (maybe 19 to counteract the lower chances with less than 3 dice at the end). When calculating attacks against 2 or more armies at once, I believe for every 6 the attacker loses, the defender loses 7.