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Correction, between 6 and 7 billion, and the only people that are really complaining are Western countries, namely America, which puts it more around 400 million. Besides, under the republics of the west, people like to think that their office holders are going to do the jobs for them.Juan_Bottom wrote:Anyone here read the book ANIMAL FARM? I am always amazed how everyone complains, but no one does anything about anything. Do you not know your own strength? There are like a 8 billion of us, and 11 of them. if we wanted cheap gas, we would take it...
Frigidus wrote:It makes me so mad that we're wasting oil on getting to places Super Fast instead of spending in on stuff we need. Like, you know, plastic and computers.
Hologram wrote:Correction, between 6 and 7 billion, and the only people that are really complaining are Western countries, namely America, which puts it more around 400 million. Besides, under the republics of the west, people like to think that their office holders are going to do the jobs for them.Juan_Bottom wrote:Anyone here read the book ANIMAL FARM? I am always amazed how everyone complains, but no one does anything about anything. Do you not know your own strength? There are like a 8 billion of us, and 11 of them. if we wanted cheap gas, we would take it...
Juan_Bottom wrote:I think it is the price that you pay for big government.
Nobunaga wrote:... Why is that? America just too damned big? Or is it "Big-Oil Conspiracy" related?
On your last point, I think it'll actually be getting cheaper (albeit slower) to take the train since trains are so much more fuel efficient than planes the rising gas prices will have less of an effect on the profit margins of Amtrak and other companies and the companies will probably decide to take a profit hit instead of raising their prices and reducing their already rather low demand.tzor wrote:Nobunaga wrote:... Why is that? America just too damned big? Or is it "Big-Oil Conspiracy" related?
That's it, it's just too damned big.![]()
But most importantly in Japan people are concentrated into urban areas. The US has a significant populaton in suburban and rural areas. Mass transit works wonders in small concentrated areas and among small concentrated areas, but the complexity of a system increases with the size of the area. Thus mass transportation becomes impractical in rural areas.
There was a time, long ago when every two bit city had their own trolley system. Most ripped them out in the 20th century because the automobile reduced the demand. In many small cities, the amount of effort required for construction of the infrastructure would cripple the city. Most of the cities that have the infrastructure are many decades old and most projects are for highway improvements. Boston's "Big Dig" for example was for cars, not trains.
There was also a tendency in Japan to go for the bleeding edge. No one wanted to touch mag lev in the US but Japan took up the chappenge with gusto. The most "innovative" mass transportation idea recently (and this is a decade old already) was an elevated line from the railroad to one of the airports. If that is true for the city that never sleeps, it must be even worse for all the other cities.
As for inter state train transport ... ironcially it is still cheaper to fly.
As oil prices soared to record levels in recent years, basic economics suggested that consumption would fall and supplies would rise as producers drilled for more oil.
But as prices flirt with $120 a barrel, many energy experts are becoming worried that neither seems to be happening. Higher prices have done little to suppress global demand or attract new production, and the resulting mismatch has sent oil prices ever higher.
That has translated into more pain at the pump, with gasoline setting a fresh record of $3.60 a gallon nationwide on Monday. Experts expect prices above $4 a gallon this summer, and one analyst recently predicted that gasoline could reach $7 in the next four years.
A central reason that oil supplies are not rising much is that major producers outside the OPEC cartel, like Russia, Mexico and Norway, are showing troubling signs of sluggishness. Unlike OPEC, whose explicit goal is to regulate the supply of oil to keep prices up, these countries are the free traders of the oil market, with every incentive to produce flat-out at a time of high prices.
But for a variety of reasons, including sharply higher drilling costs and a rise of nationalistic policies that restrict foreign investment, these countries are failing to increase their output. They seem stuck at about 50 million barrels of oil a day, or 60 percent of the world’s oil supplies, with few prospects for growth.
“According to normal economic theory, and the history of oil, rising prices have two major effects,” said Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the International Energy Agency in Paris. “They reduce demand and they induce oil supplies. Not this time.”
With global supplies tight, geopolitics continue to play a big role in pushing up oil prices. Oil futures closed at $118.75 a barrel, up 23 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after strikes by oil workers in Scotland and Nigeria that shut down nearly 1.7 percent of the world’s daily production.
Countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have been the main source of production growth in the past three decades, as new fields were discovered in Alaska, the North Sea and the Caspian region.
But analysts at Barclays Capital said last week that non-OPEC supplies were “seemingly dead in the water.” Goldman Sachs raised similar concerns last month, saying that growth in non-OPEC supplies “can no longer be taken for granted.”
At the same time, oil consumption keeps expanding. Global consumption is forecast to increase by 1.2 million barrels a day this year, to 87.2 million barrels a day, with much of the growth in demand coming from China, India and the Middle East, according to the International Energy Agency, a group that advises industrialized countries.
In the United States and through much of the developed world, the higher fuel prices have led drivers to reduce their consumption, and gasoline demand is expected to drop this year. But that drop will be more than offset by the rise in energy demand from developing countries. In the next two decades, demand is projected to jump by 35 percent, and developing countries will consume more oil than industrialized countries.
Higher oil prices mean record profits for oil companies that have, to some extent, masked the supply problems. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are both expected to deliver knockout performances when reporting quarterly earnings this week, even as they struggle to increase production.
“What is disturbing here is that things seem to get worse, not better,” said David Greely, an analyst at Goldman Sachs. “These high prices are not attracting meaningful new supplies.”
The outlook for oil supplies “signals a period of unprecedented scarcity,” Jeff Rubin, an analyst at CIBC World Markets, said last week. Oil prices might exceed $200 a barrel by 2012, he said, a level that would very likely mean $7-a-gallon gasoline in the United States.
Some regions are simply running out of reserves. Norway’s production has slumped by 25 percent since its peak in 2001, and in Britain, output has dropped 43 percent in eight years. Production from the giant Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska has dropped by 65 percent from its peak two decades ago.
In many other places, the problems are not below ground, as energy executives like to put it, but above ground. Higher petroleum taxes and more costly licensing agreements, a scarcity of workers and swelling costs, as well as political wrangling and violence, are making it harder to raise production.
“It’s a crunch,” said J. Robinson West, chairman of PFC Energy, an energy consulting firm in Washington. “The world is not running out of oil, but rather it’s running out of oil production capacity.”
Mexico, the second-biggest exporter to the United States, seems increasingly helpless to find new supplies to offset the collapse of its largest oil field, Cantarell. A combination of falling production and rising domestic consumption could wipe out Mexico’s exports within five years.
Foreign investment could help Mexico produce oil from deeper waters, but that is a controversial proposition in a country where oil has long been seen as part of the national patrimony.
Another country, Russia, is also a focus of analysts’ worries. Russia is not exactly running out of places to look for oil — a huge chunk of eastern Siberia remains unexplored — and the country has been the biggest contributor to the growth in energy supplies in the last decade.
But Russian energy officials warned recently that the days of stunning growth that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union were over, as the country focuses on stabilizing its output. Russia today produces about 10 million barrels of oil a day, up from a low of 6 million barrels in 1996.
The Russian government has been muscling Western companies to gain more control over its energy resources. That rise in energy nationalism could freeze new investment and slow any meaningful growth in supplies there for years.
As countries like Russia slow output, analysts say OPEC will have to pick up the slack. The oil cartel accounts for 40 percent of the world’s oil exports and owns more than 75 percent of global reserves. But there are serious concerns that OPEC will also find it tough to increase production.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, is completing a $50 billion plan to increase capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day, but it signaled recently that it would not go beyond that. That means Saudi Arabia could fall short of the 15 million barrels a day that most experts had expected it to produce in the long run.
OPEC’s 13 members plan to spend $150 billion to expand their capacity by five million barrels a day by 2012. But OPEC will need to pump 60 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 36 million barrels a day today, to meet the projected growth in demand. Analysts say that without Iran and Iraq — where nearly 30 years of wars and sanctions have crippled oil production — reaching that level will be impossible.
Not everyone is pessimistic about energy supplies. A study by the National Petroleum Council, an industry group that provides advice to the secretary of energy, concluded that the world still had plenty of petroleum resources that could be tapped.
In fact, high prices have set off a global dash for oil. Brazil, for example, has struck large offshore fields that could turn the country into one of the world’s top 10 producers. But developing new fields can take many years.
To make up the shortfall, the world is also increasingly turning to fuels from unconventional sources, like biofuels or heavy oil. Canadian tar sands, for example, have attracted large investments.
But the International Energy Agency estimates that current investments will be insufficient to replace declining oil production. The energy agency said it would take $5.4 trillion by 2030 to raise global output. Otherwise, it warned that a crisis before 2015 involving “an abrupt run-up in prices” could not be ruled out.
Hologram wrote:On your last point, I think it'll actually be getting cheaper (albeit slower) to take the train since trains are so much more fuel efficient than planes the rising gas prices will have less of an effect on the profit margins of Amtrak and other companies and the companies will probably decide to take a profit hit instead of raising their prices and reducing their already rather low demand.
tzor wrote:Hologram wrote:On your last point, I think it'll actually be getting cheaper (albeit slower) to take the train since trains are so much more fuel efficient than planes the rising gas prices will have less of an effect on the profit margins of Amtrak and other companies and the companies will probably decide to take a profit hit instead of raising their prices and reducing their already rather low demand.
I used to go to Gen Con (New York to Indy) and I compared the prices and the plane was always cheeper. I just checked amtrack and travelocity for the prices using the date of 24 June as a reference point so I could secure relatively good faires and availability. A round trip (non stop) from NY to Indy is roughly $238 by plane. A one way train trip is $175 ($350 round trip) and actually requires three different trains. The train route would take over a day (25 hours) because it has go go all the way south to Washington DC and then all the way to Chicago.
Once again this brings up the problem of size, as a population is disbursed evenly over an area, the complexity of the system grows in proportion to the area, which is the square of the distance. Trains are great for connecting hubs to hubs, but you need a complete grid to become effective because someone from point A is always going to want to get to point B.
Let's take a simplier case, NY to washington DC.
Train: As low as $98 one way - $196 Round Trip
Plane: $168 Round Trip
Mind you here the difference is 3 1/2 hours vs 1 1/2 hours and I might be interested in the view from the train. But the plane is still cheaper.
Could it be that Amtrack sucks? It might rabbit, it might.
jonesthecurl wrote:IN France, where they take trains seriously, long-distance trains can hit well over 100mph, and average far higher than road travel too (I don't have the current figures, but the last time I looked it was impressive).
codeblue1018 wrote:We have just hit $4.00 per gallon for regular unleaded and $4.59 pg for diesel in Michigan. Freakin unreal. Post your community gas prices, I'd be interested to the comparison.
DiM wrote:codeblue1018 wrote:We have just hit $4.00 per gallon for regular unleaded and $4.59 pg for diesel in Michigan. Freakin unreal. Post your community gas prices, I'd be interested to the comparison.
average wage in USA is ~40k / year. and you have a price of $4.00 per gallon. this means the average american can buy 10,000 gallons of unleaded regular each year. or 37,800 liters.
in my country the average wage is 4200 /year. and the price is $2/liter ( $7.5/gallon) this means the average romanian can purchase 560 gallons of unleaded regular each year. or 2,100 liters.
and yet despite the fact that on average we can afford 20 times less fuel we do not bitch whine and moan as much as you guys do.
i have friends and relatives in the US and almost everytime i talk to them they complain about the fuel. WTF?
and on top of this, food costs more in romania, houses cost more in romania, cars cost more, electronics cost more, clothes cost more, public transportation costs more, basically everything (except medical services) costs more here.
so next time you feel like bitching think that there are places where it's much more expensive to live.
Well, the same can be said for planes (cheaper hub to hub), it's just that planes and trains have somewhat different hubs, so it depends on where you are and where you're going. For instance, Portland International (PDX) to San Diego is running at about $235 these days where the Amtrak run, which includes a stop at Los Angeles, goes for $96 on weekdays and $119 on weekends.tzor wrote:Hologram wrote:On your last point, I think it'll actually be getting cheaper (albeit slower) to take the train since trains are so much more fuel efficient than planes the rising gas prices will have less of an effect on the profit margins of Amtrak and other companies and the companies will probably decide to take a profit hit instead of raising their prices and reducing their already rather low demand.
I used to go to Gen Con (New York to Indy) and I compared the prices and the plane was always cheeper. I just checked amtrack and travelocity for the prices using the date of 24 June as a reference point so I could secure relatively good faires and availability. A round trip (non stop) from NY to Indy is roughly $238 by plane. A one way train trip is $175 ($350 round trip) and actually requires three different trains. The train route would take over a day (25 hours) because it has go go all the way south to Washington DC and then all the way to Chicago.
Once again this brings up the problem of size, as a population is disbursed evenly over an area, the complexity of the system grows in proportion to the area, which is the square of the distance. Trains are great for connecting hubs to hubs, but you need a complete grid to become effective because someone from point A is always going to want to get to point B.
Let's take a simplier case, NY to washington DC.
Train: As low as $98 one way - $196 Round Trip
Plane: $168 Round Trip
Mind you here the difference is 3 1/2 hours vs 1 1/2 hours and I might be interested in the view from the train. But the plane is still cheaper.
Could it be that Amtrack sucks? It might rabbit, it might.
fireedud wrote:DiM wrote:codeblue1018 wrote:We have just hit $4.00 per gallon for regular unleaded and $4.59 pg for diesel in Michigan. Freakin unreal. Post your community gas prices, I'd be interested to the comparison.
average wage in USA is ~40k / year. and you have a price of $4.00 per gallon. this means the average american can buy 10,000 gallons of unleaded regular each year. or 37,800 liters.
in my country the average wage is 4200 /year. and the price is $2/liter ( $7.5/gallon) this means the average romanian can purchase 560 gallons of unleaded regular each year. or 2,100 liters.
and yet despite the fact that on average we can afford 20 times less fuel we do not bitch whine and moan as much as you guys do.
i have friends and relatives in the US and almost everytime i talk to them they complain about the fuel. WTF?
and on top of this, food costs more in romania, houses cost more in romania, cars cost more, electronics cost more, clothes cost more, public transportation costs more, basically everything (except medical services) costs more here.
so next time you feel like bitching think that there are places where it's much more expensive to live.
Remember most Americans are pampered, ignorant little crybabies. But I'm just curious, aren't cars more fuel efficient in the EU?
Pedronicus wrote:The problem lies with Airlines getting fuel with no taxes applied so that they are cheaper than taking the train.
I'd like to go to Scotland this year for my holiday for a change, but I know that it will be more expensive to take the train than either drive or of fly. Until trains are priced in such a way that for me to have to get to a central London train station, buy my return tickets, and then get from my Scottish train station to the place I'm staying at is cheaper than driving or getting a plane (I prefer taking the train option - because only I drive and I'd like to gaze out of the window at something to look at instead of clouds or another cars number plate down the motorway) nothing will change. I fail to understand why 300-800 people all travelling together is more expensive than 2 people driving in a car. It's ludicrous.
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