Should Ron Paul Splinter the GOP?

[InkL0sed]

Maybe you could enlighten us. Start by explaining how English banks define American Recession?

Goddamn it, it has nothing to do with suggs being English, and certainly nothing to do with English banks. Please do try to get over your xenophobia and respond to what he's saying.

[Juan_Bottom]

Maybe you could enlighten us. Start by explaining how English banks define American Recession?

Goddamn it, it has nothing to do with suggs being English, and certainly nothing to do with English banks. Please do try to get over your xenophobia and respond to what he's saying.

That's what I'm saying. All he is saying is idiot this idiot that. And if he does GET economics, then who's? His, mine, or everybodys?

[DaGip]

When you are rich and wealthy enough, a recession isn't going to hurt you, only the middle class and the poor. Why? Because the Fed needs to lower interest rates which makes the dollar lose money. The money I got in my savings account isn't making me any real money, because the rate of inflation is higher than the interest rate at the bank.

Are we in a depression? I never said we were, I only said that I am feeling depressed, so calling it a depression is fine with me. I would say we are definitely in a recession, things seem worse right now than just after 9-11. That just from my experience.

Inflation is still coming, as DOW Industrial just raised its prices by 20% or more! That means we will be paying more for almost everything. Computers, Tvs, Cars...all the stuff that the economists gauge whether or not we are experiencing inflation.

They said we weren't experiencing inflation because the price of spendier items had not gone up, but now with DOW's new statement, inflation is here and the poor and middle class will just steadily become one big poor class.

You can throw your history and economics books away, because I am living in the reality. Things are bad in the USA...if you are poor or in the lower middle classes. But sooner or later, the pulls of the economy will start to dig into the Fat Cat's pockets, then you will finally hear bloody murder. But before that...who cares. They are just poor people...piff, piff!

[suggs]

Economics isn't a personal matter. It really doesn't matter if I am English, American, or Iraqi -economic laws work the same EVERYWHERE.
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. You guys haven't had one quarter of negative growth yet, let alone two.
Your growth has slowed down, but it hasn't been negative.
I'm talking national, federal average of course. I have no idea about the localities -maybe there is/has been a recession in California or Wisconsin -I don't know, and its simply not relevant.

[suggs]

Da Gip, how old are you? a teenager i guess. I'm trying to have a sensible convo about economics, and you wander off on your "Ooo the Evil Fed, the dangers of capitalism nonsense."

You said nothing of substance in your last post.
If you are depressed, take some fucking prozac, or stop smoking weed (which will depress you).Or do some excercise.

I said nothing about the poor. It is shit being poor. But that has nothing to do with the USA still being one of the best (tbh, THE stongest, but i'm giving myself a bit of leeway for all the China enthusiasts) economies in the world.

[Juan_Bottom]

What your missing is that the Fed is openly skewing the numbers.

They are giving loans out to large banks so that they stay afloat.
Yes the US is advancing on the global scale by 2, 3%?, but they are doing it by inflating money. So while it is not your definition of recession, it is still a recession.

[suggs]

What your missing is that the Fed is openly skewing the numbers.

They are giving loans out to large banks so that they stay afloat.
Yes the US is advancing on the global scale by 2, 3%?, but they are doing it by inflating money. So while it is not your definition of recession, it is still a recession.

No. The Fed don't skew the numbers. If they did, don't you think they might have covered up the US recessions that HAVE occured.
Inflation is still quite low in the USA -I'll have to google the figures, but i'd be surprised if you are above 10% -my guess is that your still below five. I'll find out and edit this post.
Your last point shows you did not understand what i said.
It is not MY definition of a recession - it is THE defintion of a recession.
And sure, you can have your own special little definition of recession if you want, but its rather like me defining "Suggs=Brad Pitt" -it is, sadly, just bollocks.

[suggs]

Here's a quote from last week, by Alan Grenspan, former Chairman of the Fed, one of the greatest men of our age. My latter subjective view aside, he DOES know a lil' bit about economics, and the US economy:

"“I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession…that probability has receded a little and I think the probability of a severe recession has come down markedly.” – May 26, 2008

[suggs]

Yep, i googled it, and the Department of Labor assesses average inflation, for ALL goods as 3.9% p/a.
Historically perhaps slightly high for the USA , but not at all bad.
ADmitedly the boys at the Fed would like it below 2%, but iwouldnt be too concerned about 3.9%.
Stop scaremongering you two, when you don't know the facts!

[Juan_Bottom]

What I'm saying is that the definition neglects the government printing free money for the failing banks. This would absolutly skew the gdp numbers? Your using the textbook definition to hide the fact that the only place hiring is McDonalds. And don't think gdp counts, if every American saves their money instead.

[suggs]

What I'm saying is that the definition neglects the government printing free money for the failing banks. This would absolutly skew the gdp numbers? Your using the textbook definition to hide the fact that the only place hiring is McDonalds. And don't think gdp counts, if every American saves their money instead.

No. The textbook definition includes that. If all that was happening was the government was printing money and bailing out the big banks, then you would indeed be in a recession -cos no one would be spending or producing or exporting anything.
But that isn't what happening - people are still spending money, businesses are still exporting, and investing.
The reason i know that is true is because...the USA economy is still growing albeit, VERY slowly).

Most of the big banks are still making huge profits anyway.
You don't understand how GDP is calculated. Savings don't come into it.
Or rather, if everyone was saving their money then GDP would be tiny anyway, since consumption/spending is a big component.
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

c=consumption/spending
i= investment
g = govt spending
x = exports
m = imports

[DaGip]

If you haven't seen the Ron Paul computer animation advertisement, here ya go:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrlIhO7bJgI

[jonesthecurl]

What I'm saying is that the definition neglects the government printing free money for the failing banks. This would absolutly skew the gdp numbers? Your using the textbook definition to hide the fact that the only place hiring is McDonalds. And don't think gdp counts, if every American saves their money instead.

Plenty of "help wanted" ads in windows around here. Obviously, only for low-paid jobs, or else it'd be publicised differently.

Then again, one of the reasons that I picked this location is 'cos they don't have bloody MacD (or Wendy's or Burger King or any other chains) in this downtown or the next.

OK let's be honest, the "next" downtown has a Dunkin, and a Starbucks, and just closed the Blimpies. And within my township as opposed to the village downtown there has to be a McD somewhere, as I ocassinally see its litter. The township also has a Burger King and a Papa Joe (?) pizza place. I'm rambling, time for another beer.

[muy_thaiguy]

Papa Joe

Maybe Papa Johns?

Anyways, if you don't like fast food restaurants, or many people for that matter, there is always Buford, Wyoming.

[Juan_Bottom]

What I'm saying is that the definition neglects the government printing free money for the failing banks. This would absolutly skew the gdp numbers? Your using the textbook definition to hide the fact that the only place hiring is McDonalds. And don't think gdp counts, if every American saves their money instead.

No. The textbook definition includes that. If all that was happening was the government was printing money and bailing out the big banks, then you would indeed be in a recession -cos no one would be spending or producing or exporting anything.
But that isn't what happening - people are still spending money, businesses are still exporting, and investing.
The reason i know that is true is because...the USA economy is still growing albeit, VERY slowly).

Most of the big banks are still making huge profits anyway.
You don't understand how GDP is calculated. Savings don't come into it.
Or rather, if everyone was saving their money then GDP would be tiny anyway, since consumption/spending is a big component.
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

c=consumption/spending
i= investment
g = govt spending
x = exports
m = imports

No, I was trying to say that although 'officially' our gdp has grown 2 or3%, it isn't because Americans are buying. They are saving their money instead. It is actually because the fed is loaning money hand over fist to keep the large banks afloat. The feds emergancy loans are at the highest point that they ever have been, to the tune of something like $16 billion a week. Because they are emergancy loans, the fed doesn't have to say why the loans were given, or to whom. This is to prevent bank runs.
And (my specialty) if the housing market ends this month following the same pattern it is on, it too should loose a few billion dollars more. And again, in the housing sector, you have banks loaning to each other to help skew their own financial losses. No one is seriously investing in this market.
I am saying that our gdp is skewed, by the fed is desperatly trying to hold the scaffolding in place. And they are printing more money to do it. The money isn't coming from any private sector, it originates from the government. Just like during the depression.

But I do like the conversation better when we ain't insulting each other.

[gdeangel]

ps its almost half way through the year yet, and the "recession" still hasn't happened in the USA.
So its a bit early to be talking about a depression.
f*ck, you morons really annoy me.
READ SOME FUCKING HISTORY BOOKS.

Are you smoking crack or something?? "'[R]ecession' still hasn't happened "?????????

Let me put it to you like this: classic definition of recession being dependent on sustained negative GDP growth. Well, ok, it's not GDP, but WTF do you call having 1/3 the value of the collective balance sheets of your homeowning populace WIPED OUT? If you want to get cute, tickle yourself and call it a bubble. But remember we look at GDP as a way of measuring national WEALTH, the same way you would look at a corporate income statement to evaluate earnings results as an indicator of future distributable profits that will be converted into owner WEALTH. If you had a company that had whopper earnings, but every single asset they owned was devalued down to $0 because there was utterly no market whatsoever for those assets, and, in fact, every company was flooding the market with the crap, you'd call it a cluster f*ck. And that's what's happened to the U.S. economy in a nutshell.

In the long run, the only thing that is going to save this economy is a balanced federal budget. But - and I just got a RNC survey yesterday - when they say things like "should we commit to balance the budget at all costs"... well, duh, there's both a short term and a long run. McCain seems like a guy who will run the economy into the toilet faster than DaGip squeezing out a helix shaped turd when the park ranger's not looking. O'Bama's not much better - he's going to put the economy on a high dose of nicotine and crack which will keep us going at unsustainable levels of government spending and across-the-board debt for a while longer... maybe 8 years to be exact, and then, tadda, we'll be all set for the black shirts.

Fucking American politics. I've got my samurai sword polished up... when do we head to the convention??

[gdeangel]

What I'm saying is that the definition neglects the government printing free money for the failing banks. This would absolutly skew the gdp numbers? Your using the textbook definition to hide the fact that the only place hiring is McDonalds. And don't think gdp counts, if every American saves their money instead.

No. The textbook definition includes that. If all that was happening was the government was printing money and bailing out the big banks, then you would indeed be in a recession -cos no one would be spending or producing or exporting anything.
But that isn't what happening - people are still spending money, businesses are still exporting, and investing.
The reason i know that is true is because...the USA economy is still growing albeit, VERY slowly).

Most of the big banks are still making huge profits anyway.
You don't understand how GDP is calculated. Savings don't come into it.
Or rather, if everyone was saving their money then GDP would be tiny anyway, since consumption/spending is a big component.
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

c=consumption/spending
i= investment
g = govt spending
x = exports
m = imports

No, I was trying to say that although 'officially' our gdp has grown 2 or3%, it isn't because Americans are buying. They are saving their money instead. It is actually because the fed is loaning money hand over fist to keep the large banks afloat. The feds emergancy loans are at the highest point that they ever have been, to the tune of something like $16 billion a week. Because they are emergancy loans, the fed doesn't have to say why the loans were given, or to whom. This is to prevent bank runs.
And (my specialty) if the housing market ends this month following the same pattern it is on, it too should loose a few billion dollars more. And again, in the housing sector, you have banks loaning to each other to help skew their own financial losses. No one is seriously investing in this market.
I am saying that our gdp is skewed, by the fed is desperatly trying to hold the scaffolding in place. And they are printing more money to do it. The money isn't coming from any private sector, it originates from the government. Just like during the depression.

But I do like the conversation better when we ain't insulting each other.

Well, your close on a couple of things here, but the fed isn't printing money. In a classic move of monetary policy, the fed would buy up its bonds injecting cash into the economy, increasing M1. What they've been doing recently is instead loaning out treasury securities (i.e., government debt) so that financial institutions can hold these highly rated "cash equivalent" goverment securities to meet their capital requirements, but at the same time, it looks on paper like a cash neutral transaction (i.e., government debt, not cash, going out the door), which is - I guess - supposed to mitigate some of the inflationary results while injecting liquidity.

Now think about what I just said a little. You loan shark tells you that you've got to post up collateral - that nice gold watch or your laptop - worth at least 20% of your loan, so he at least can sell that if you deadbeat. But you tell him, sorry, actually , my business plan requires me to keep my gold watch and laptop, so, um, instead can I pledge some debt I own to you for another guy I know who is definitely good for it. "Sure" says good o'l sharky. Then you say, hey Sharky, your an investor in my plan, right, and you want it to succeed, so, um, would you sign a promissory note and let me hold it for a while. Ummm... sharky, not having finished that MBA, agrees. You put the note in your pocket. You walk out. You walk back in. You take the note out of your pocket and offer it to meet your capital call. I can't take this protests sharky. "But sharky," you say, "are you trying to tell me that you'll take a note from that dummy down the street, but your own note is not good here as collateral."

What should sharky do?

What should sharky do if he's in the business of pandering to a bunch of "give it to me now" voters??

[silvanricky]

In the long run, the only thing that is going to save this economy is a balanced federal budget.

[Dancing Mustard]

I voted that he smells like 4000 vaginas.

[suggs]

Whether or not a balanced budget will "cure" the US economy is a matter of economic controversy, -Keynes and Friedman had different views on this.
But I wasn't talking about economic policy. Just the factual question of whether the US economy is in recesssion. And it isn't.
Yes, wealth has been severely dented.
Hence, economic growth has slowed VIRTUALLY to a standstill. But not quite.
I think yo guys are getting the wrong idea. I'm not some sort of "Head In THe Sand Hooverite", claiming all is well with the US economy. You are almost in a recession, and probably will be in arecession. Which means things must be quite bad.

But you are not in a recession yet. This isn't up for debate - its simply based on government statistics, which contrary to Benjamin Disraeli's tedious dictum, are not comparable to Lies or Damned Lies -they are accurate.

[suggs]

I voted that he smells like 4000 vaginas.

Again, govt. stats show this to be the case

[DaGip]

McCain seems like a guy who will run the economy into the toilet faster than DaGip squeezing out a helix shaped turd when the park ranger's not looking.?

I so agree with you, it's uncanny!