Snorri1234 wrote:Napoleon Ier wrote:The 'benefit' for 'lazy fucks' is, indeed, jobseekers' allowance. Apparently, you've had to live on it for a few months many years ago. Wasit is soooo horrible? Diddums...I suppose you had to give up your evening spliff, and could only sleep with thai-ladyboys once a week. Enough to keep body and soul together, but certainly not enough to fund the old Guardian-addiction or to get best-brand tofu...cry me a fucking river. On a serious note, do you have hard statistics and empirical evidence to back your views, or just unverifiable, subjective personal anecdote?
So your response to hc's claim (based on his experience) that living on jobseeker's allowance is fucked up is saying that it isn't, stopping for a few secs to add a few personal attacks to spice it up a little, and he's lying?
I don't get it. How can you claim his story is a lie when you have not the slightest experience in ever having to live on little money? You're 15 years old Naps, how can you judge things like that? Have you ever had to live on 50 or 60 quid a week? That's no fun, especially as it guarantees you'll have no luxury to speak off. It's food and drink and basic neccesities, nothing more. I don't think anyone wants to live on it for any extended period of time.
Also, how can anyone bring up hard statistics and empirical evidence for that? Sheets of numbers and tests? Of what is actually a subjective view (i.e. the experience that it's not fun)?
No, I can question him and his story, regardless of my age, using statistical evidence. "I am/was on welfare therefore I am justified in pontificating on the subject in whichever way I please" is not a valid line of reasoning. It's an ad hominem fallacy, in a slightly disguised form.
However, "I can and have found data on the matter and analysed it to make valid conclusions" is a sensible line of argument.
So let's do that, eh? Use hard statistics: the leftist's most feared foe...
First however, some a priori: if welfare benefits are raised, it follows that work (usually amongst lower paid people) becomes less attractive. There will be a lag, since most people don't quit jobs at once to go on welfare, but unemployment will rise accordingly as people find that the old equation dictating that consumption "c" = output "y" = function /---> number of hours worked "f(n)" no longer holds true, since you can still get a value for c, : y = 0. Does the empirical data support this?
Well, here are the stats for welfare benefits per week in the UK in 1938 inflation adjusted money and the unemployment level: Post-War, Beveridge actually lowered the benefit, when you adjust for inflation, and insisted that after 6 months, acceptance of state-provided work or training would be "required". Unemployment in 1946 was low at 3%, and by 1951 was 1.6%. Interestingly, inflation also caused a 23.5% drop in real benefits.
Then, in '55, welafre was raised 23.1%, whilst inflation had only risen 6.5% since '51. Similarily, 1958, it was raised by 25%, and again between 1961 and 1963. The Conservatives, surprinsingly, not Attlee and Beveridge as is so often popularily assumed, raised welfare first. Not to be outdone, Labour under Wilson raised unemplyment by a further 18.5% in 1965.
In the decade beginning in April 1955, Welfare rose by 72% above inflation. Since 1967, unemployment has never returned below 2% again, and reached a peak of 4% in 1970.
In 1974, Wilson won the election again. He raised the benefit further, boosting it far above inflation. Benefits stayed high throughout the 70s in real terms. Unemployment had risen to 6% within two years of the '74 hike,and by 1981, stood at a distastros 11.4% (the lag was over and the economy felt the full effect of this disincentivization). Since 1985, however, unemplyment benfits have stayed constant at roughly £54 in 2001 money, declining slowly with inflation (£54.95 in 1985, £53.01 in 2001). But, as wages rose in disproportion to this constant rate, unemployment fell to the reasonbly low levels we know today. As a percentage of avergae real wages, the benefit fell from 32.3% to 19.8%. To compound this, income tax fell, further widening the gap between unemployment benefit and real wages. Accordingly, unemployment has falled by about 60% since the 80s, to a constant rate of roughly 4% since the new millenium.
The theory that unemployment benefits deincentivize work and raise unemployment is comprehensible in theory and backed by the data, here collated by James Bartholomew and Charles Clarke,in
Social Insurance in Britain from 1938 and
The Welfare State We're In.
Whether or not living on welfare is "fun" is certainly subjective, but emprirically, it makes no economic sense to pay heed to claims it's so horrible, since it obviously is more appealing to many than putting in a day's work.