I'm frequently "going for it" early...help please

[hideaway]

I've noticed that I'm frequently going for it too early - trying to knock a relatively strong player out, grab his cards, and lock the game up.

here's an example of an ongoing game.

http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=1852237

In this San Franciscan now-disaster, I am pink who had a total of 30 standing armies fortifying the countries around Marin, with 7 to deploy for my turn. 9 of my armies were in inner sunset, 10 in castro and 11 in bernal heights, all entirely surrounded by yellow. Yellow has a total of 28 standing armies at the beginning of my turn, 11 of which were in Pacific Heights. I deploy all to castro, intending to test the waters on the 11 in Pacific Heights, thinking if I have a good run I against that country I will go for it. I do, and I do, and I come up just short. As I do WAYYYY too often.

what sort of ratio of armies do I need to "go for it"? Should I be valuing several individual territories with 1 armies at a different risk factor than a single territory with say 11 armies?

[BaldAdonis]

You're less likely to win against five territories with 1 each than one with 5, because you have to leave some behind (unless you bombard). Use the Gambit battle odds calculator to figure out how likely you are to win any string of attacks.

[hideaway]

Gambit battle odds calculator? wubba?

[BENJIKAT IS DEAD]

Gambit battle odds calculator? wubba?

http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds?

[hideaway]

Gambit battle odds calculator? wubba?

http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds?

thanks, this is useful

[detlef]

Certainly the odds calculator is a must, but it's not the only thing you need to consider.

One thing I caught myself doing early on that I have fortunately realized is folly, is taking a guy out for his cards when the pay-off simply isn't there.

In escalating, it's one thing. Because cards are everything. However, in flat rate, the most they can be worth (excluding the 2 bonus armies you get if you're sitting on the country which is not always totally useful) is 3.33 armies per card.

So, if the motivation is simply to get his cards, he'd better have 3 or less total armies per held card or it may quite possibly cost you as many (or more) armies to take him out as you will ultimately get from the cards. How many times have I wasted myself taking somebody out, only to find the bugger is sitting on 4 reds and a green.

I've even taken a guy out while I was holding 2 reds and 2 greens and he had 4 cards as well. I figured, he's got to have 2 blues, so I'm getting to cash 20 and go mess somebody else up. No such luck, dude was also holding 2 reds and 2 greens.

Now, cards aren't the only good reason to take somebody out, but one of the next big reasons (there being one less person besides yourself that can now win the game) doesn't benefit you any more than everyone else. Only they haven't wasted a bunch of armies in what could have been a bloody battle.

I will say this, taking a player out somewhat early in the game (unless he's almost dead already and sitting on a bunch of cards) is almost never worth it. Well, unless it's a team game in which case, it can be pretty huge because more times than not, you've just turned a 3 team game into a 2 team game or in the case of 2v2, all but locked up victory for your team.

[hideaway]

thanks detlef, that's a great post.