Dice Unfair?

[TheScarecrow]

i just ran a quick test of random.org to test whether or not the dice are as bad as some in CC say they are (I am presuming in this test that they mean, "Attackers consistently get worse dice than defenders.")

So i put it to the test and quite frankly after running the test 26 times*..... i dont want to go any further because things dont look too good... for one of the sides!

First of all lets look at the TOTAL dice what the attackers and defenders got all together.

Ones=15 (11.5%)
Twos=20 (16.4%)
Threes=17 (11.5%)
Fours=25 (15.6%)
Fives=26 (16.0%)
Sixes=27 (16.0%)

This isnt too bad a distribution is it? Now lets take a closer look, how many times did the attackers win? how many times did the defenders win? how many times was the battle tied?

Attackers killed two Defending armies = 11x (42.3%)
Attackers killed one Defending army = 4x (15.4%)
Both sides tied the battle = 3x (11.5%)
Defenders killed one Attacking army = 5x (19.2%)
Defenders killed two Attacking armies = 3x (11.5%)

If you feel sorry for the defenders now... have a look at the total amount of armies that were theoretically lost by both sides.

Attackers Lost = 14 armies (32.6%)
Defenders Lost = 29 armies (67.4%)

Who do you think has the worst deal when it comes to dice



*i was going to do this 50 times but thought at this point it was a waste of time....... do i detect an oxymoron here???????

[krusher]

when you play with large amounts of troops the dice become very balanced, but when it come down to 4 vs 2 then yes most of the time the dice brakes and gives a spin to the game:?

[peanutsdad]

Very interesting, not your findings, but that you took that much time doing the test..... Naaa, seriously though, dice are dice, you could probably run the test again and it would favor the complete opposite direction....I for one have no problem with the dice on CC.....

[TheScarecrow]

i dont have a problem with the dice either. i was just wanting something else to give to those whiners out there who have only straw in their heads, cant play the game and then blame it on the dice... *pun not intended*

the test only took like 5 minutes... not really too much out of my life...


you know im reminded of an old adage, "A poor workman always blames his tools."

[wcaclimbing]

looking at those numbers, i am guessing you used about 100 "dice" per roll...

you need much bigger numbers for it to be worth anything.



Thats a recent image from my Dice Analyzer (Firefox greasemonkey script, counts your dice, you should try it) with a few notes drawn in. Anyway, the analyzer (which uses many more dice than you used) is looking very even and fair.

Basically, to answer the question:

THE DICE ARE COMPLETELY FAIR!!!

EDIT: dang... double fastposted....

[TheScarecrow]

damn... why didnt i think of that

[wcaclimbing]

damn... why didnt i think of that

didn't think of looking at the analyzer?

[AAFitz]

The Dice are not fair!

They are random like life, and will occasionaly make you lose, and occasionally make you win.. no one ever said they would be fair.... but over time, they average out.. so they are as fair and random as possible.

[wcaclimbing]

to me, random=fair, because you have an equal chance of getting everything.

[demon7896]

random=unfair, but that's all psychology

[browng-08]

random=igloo cheese because it has always been.

[duday53]

unfare dice= http://www.kongregate.com/games/Akirasan/sensou-1-5

[InkL0sed]

random=unfair, but that's all physiology

Physiology??

[flexmaster33]

Yes, the dice are completely fair...I hate hearing complaints about it.

People want guarantees, which go completely against randomness. If you're in a bad luck cycle attack more conservately and you can survive a bad streak of the dice. Other times, it's true you can't do much.

People just remember when the dice "cost" them a game more often than they remember winning games due to a lucky streak. Too many see bad dice as a flaw in the game, while good dice are dismissed as their superior skill.

[TheScarecrow]

Yes, the dice are completely fair...I hate hearing complaints about it.

People want guarantees, which go completely against randomness. If you're in a bad luck cycle attack more conservately and you can survive a bad streak of the dice. Other times, it's true you can't do much.

People just remember when the dice "cost" them a game more often than they remember winning games due to a lucky streak. Too many see bad dice as a flaw in the game, while good dice are dismissed as their superior skill.

APPLAUSE STANDING OVATION APPLAUSE STANDING OVATION APPLAUSE STANDING OVATION

thats what ive been trying to say for AGES!!!!.

and no wca i never ever thought of looking at the dice analyzer.... and i have it installed



oh well what do you expect from a scarecrow with a head full of straw?

[oVo]

The dice are what they are, and recently the defenders are kicking my ass.

14 v 3 nope... 12 v 3 nope... 15 v 4 nope... then 4 v 6 and I win?

go figure?

[wcaclimbing]

and no wca i never ever thought of looking at the dice analyzer.... and i have it installed



oh well what do you expect from a scarecrow with a head full of straw?

if you only had a brain....

[Risktaker17]

Dice are weird, but then again over 1600000 games have been played

[TheScarecrow]

The dice are what they are, and recently the defenders are kicking my ass.

14 v 3 nope... 12 v 3 nope... 15 v 4 nope... then 4 v 6 and I win?

go figure?

dude if you cant stand the dice may i suggest a different game... i dunno... monopoly? oh damn that game has dice too...

if you lose that game im surrrre its all because of the dce right?

Yes wca... if only i had a brain... actually i do but you dont get any brain activity when the only thing there is a whole bunch of straw...

[Root Ranger]

Dice aren't fair, but after you've been plaing at least over 100 games your luck will even out. In the end it will be fair. I played this guy yesterday in 1 on 1 and he got lucky and took over africa and australia, with strong reinforcements. There were no risk cards. So when all my hopes were lost I got my good luck lol. Like one very old wise risk player once said,

2008-01-20 00:03:54 - bm123: luck is nothing its all strategy and dice

[volfan]

Even if the dice are unfair to the defense or offense. It is still fair because everyone goes through with it. Everyone has to play O and D.

[MeDeFe]

A penguin is a biscuit.

[reminisco]

i hope everyone playing remembers the RULES of the dice throws, too.

high number wins, tie goes with the defender. (this designation helps even out the attacker advantage of throwing 3 dice -- and forces the need to attack with 3 dice, especially when throwing against a defender with 2)

attacker must have 1 more army than number of dice being thrown. so many fools on this site forget that when they are attacking with 3 armies vs. 2, they're only throwing 2 dice.

if you look at the probabilities (based purely on the criteria i laid out above, without using a dice analyzer), here's what you get:

If attacking with 3 dice against 2, the attacker will annihilate 2 armies 37.17% of the time. the defender will annihilate 2 armies 29.26% of the time, and each side will lose an army 33.58% of the time.

those are relative even probabilities, and i tend to think the complaints come from the "both lose 1" army percentage -- it's why one must expect to lose a few armies when attacking, and ought to be ebulliently surprised when they attack and lose nothing.

except, of course, when throwing 3 dice vs. 1. in that case, the attacker has a 65.97% chance of winning the throw. those odds are strongly in the favor of the attacker.

of course, 1 vs. 1 die, is strongly in the defender's favor (of course, because of the tie going to the defender) -- and in that case, the defender has a 58.33% chance of winning the throw.

this is simple math. i mean, 5th grade stuff....

i'm pretty sure i'm preaching to the choir here -- and i absolutely agree with what someone else said, about the poor workman blaming the tools.

completely accurate.

[jimboston]

I have come up with the final and ultimate theory in regards to the fairness/randomness of dice. It goes like this...

*When the rolls go my way... and I win games... the dice are being extremely fair/random.

*When the rolls don't go my way... and/or I lose games... it's generally because the random-number generator and/or dice-calculate at CC sucks. This... or my opponent "knows" someone at CC... and they have some dice-fix "hack".

Another version of this theory is...

*When I win... the game is all about Strategy. However... if I somehow lose... it's got nothing to do with Strategy... it's all just bad Luck.

The final expression of this theory is...

GET OVER IT!

Geez... enough about the dice already.
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I would like to propose a new Conquer Club rule. Anytime someone starts a new thread questions the randomness of the dice... 100 points is automatically deducted from their point total.

Mods... what do you think? Good idea?

[oVo]

Of course I can handle it when the dice are feeling bitchilly temperamental Scarecrow
as I'm still here eh? Even though I'm totally screwed in that particular game...
there will be more maps with better outcomes.