13 Keys (2024 Election)
Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 11:55 pmThirteen Keys to the White House has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections ... if at least six statements are FALSE, the incumbent party loses the White House. So far, Biden has unlocked three of the six keys.
- Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
FALSE
No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. [the incumbent gets less than 2/3rds of his party's delegates by the convention]
UNKNOWN
Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
TRUE
No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. [a campaign where the third party candidate is expected to get 5%+ of the popular vote]
UNKNOWN
Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
UNKNOWN
Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
UNKNOWN
Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
TRUE
(???)
No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
UNKNOWN
No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
UNKNOWN
No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
FALSE
(Afghanistan withdrawal)
Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
UNKNOWN
Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
FALSE
Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
TRUE
