Conquer Club

I've watched as you suckers try to lend your own insights onto the political stuff. Often your vision is clouded by dogma and ideology, which is a poor filter when trying to make sense of things going on. I'm going to lay it out for you though, and in this separate thread so that in about six months we can revisit it and see how I did. I know there are many of you who are going to disagree, perhaps even vehemently, and that's fine. We'll come back to this thread in the future and we'll see if the dust settles how I think it will settle.

First off, it was obvious Kav was going to get confirmed pretty much from the getgo. The theater you all watched was just that, theater. Though there were some games afoot. Kav wasn't the best choice for the SCOTUS, but he was the best choice for a counter op against certain political factions. He's a rich, cis white male, a juicy target for the unhinged left and the democratic party has no choice now but to cater to this unhinged left who are slowly but surely purging the democrat party of old, rich, male white politicians. That's for another thread, but this is why the democrats fell for the ruse put in front of them.

They had to pull out the big guns, so to speak, of gutter politics. There was nothing else they could do. The republicans who normally cave and are generally spineless. were able to whether the storm this time so long as two things were true- 1. that Kav wasn't actually guilty of the accusations and 2. he could withstand the abuse, the smears, and see it through to the end. Those things happened. The democrats never had any real evidence. This was the last straw the broke the dem back and smashed the Difi operation which has failed utterly.

show

Most of you probably don't know about that letter in the spoiler, but it's the culmination of a lot of behind the scenes wrangling where essentially the republicans called the democrat's bluff. The democrats who had no evidence to the allegations knew at that point they were toast, the operation failed and failed spectacularly.

Trump did his part, he gave the dems and Difi all the rope they needed to hang themselves. Now I'm not really sure who planned this PolOp but it worked quite well. It's the October surprise and it's going to have some far reaching consequences.

So, here is the parts some of you are going to get riled up about and begin furiously tapping on your keyboards.

First off, Diane Feinstein is done, finished. In the next six months or so, assuming she can even get herself reelected this year, is facing censure and maybe even forced out of politics and into retirement. If she does manage to stave off the DNC pushing her out, she'll could well lose her seniority. She has a rough few months ahead of her at the very least. It should be sinking in within the DNC that they've fallen victim to a PolOp and walked right into it like a blind man walks into a bar and a table and a chair...

You can see this in DiFi's body language at the press conference she and Schumer gave. I watched a body language report on DiFi's tells during that presser and it isn't pretty. The woman is stressed beyond belief. She knows she fucked up.

I can also say with near certainty that the Republicans will hold the House and the Senate. Contrary to conventional belief and polling, for the good the polls are ever going to do in this era of Trump. This Kav PolOp has really been the final nail in the midterms. Not only did the PolOp expose the hypocrisy and despicable tactics of the democrats for the American voter to see but it also puts blood in the water and the shark that is the American voter is going to pounce. The voters pounced in 2016, they elected Trump not because they loved Trump, but they did it as a big middle finger and a f*ck you very much to Clinton, the DNC and the RNC. After this debacle by the Dems the American voter is going to say f*ck you very much to the DNC as well come midterms.

The main reason is that deep down, the average American believes in the idea of innocent until proven guilty. The American voter has little patience for accusations not backed up by any evidence what so ever. Now you can claim that Ford was telling the truth, you can claim that Sweatnick or what ever her name is was telling the truth, but if you were truly honest you'd have to admit that you have no idea what so ever if these people were telling the truth or not. Kav included, I certainly don't know if the allegations were true or not, which is why evidence is so important. It certainly didn't help that the porn lawyer waded hip deep into this debacle and there were Democrat strategists who were sounding the alarm bells the instant that moron got himself involved, and yet, no one listened. Like the British in Operation Market Garden went a Bridge Too Far so the DNC went a smear too far. And they'll be punished for it come midterms. What's most noteworthy is that the Dem leadership knows this by now.

Keep watching folks, you'll start to see, slowly but surely, the effects of this failed DNC operation. If you are of the opinion that you would rather see the DNC prevail in the midterms, then you should be sounding the alarm to your DNC folks to start clamping down on the impeachment talk, the vitriol, the seething hatred of Trump and all things Trumpian and start working out the best deals possible, keeping your mouths shut and bidding time. Because if the DNC unhinged keeps up this pace, it's going to get really ugly of the DNC for the foreseeable future.

But, unfortunately, Trump derangement syndrome is going to continue to lead to more Republican victories, and more importantly, Trump victories. It'll be a self sustaining reaction that is just going to keep feeding Trump's influence.
At this point there is only one thing that can truly hurt Trump, and that is if Trump leads the US into yet another pointless war. If he does that, then he's finished. So if you want Trump gone then advocate for war with Iran, Russia, China or anyone else you can think of and hope and pray Trump is dumb enough to do such a thing. The number one reason Trump got elected above all else, including the illegal immigration problem and even the economy is his promise not to put the US into anymore foreign wars against nations who have not attacked us or can't attack us. So long as he keeps this one campaign promise, and thus far he's done that decently, then he's smooth sailing for 2020.

Or, you can keep listening to pollsters who are for hire or pundits who have agendas or whatever else you consume your propaganda from and keep believing that Trump is just about to be impeached, or is failing badly, or any other such lines of thinking.

I'm happy with it.

I predict we go to war with China. They have too much sensitive technological information against the United States and its military capabilities. Almost all our s*** came from China and they have back doors to it all. That's a serious risk to our military

yeah, US had better go to war w/someone & fast - that's a surefire way for Trump to hold on to the presidency. China might be a bit of a stretch, tho - maybe start off small, mongo - say, Iran or Venezuela maybe???

riskllama wrote:yeah, US had better go to war w/someone & fast - that's a surefire way for Trump to hold on to the presidency. China might be a bit of a stretch, tho - maybe start off small, mongo - say, Iran or Venezuela maybe???

I'm just thinking this economic Warfare can heat up. Iran would be because of Israel. But Iran would have been my second pick. Venezuela is too small. We've never had no interest in South American wars. We can do that through some type of contra. Venezuela would be more of an economic deal then shooting bullets.

riskllama wrote:yeah, US had better go to war w/someone & fast - that's a surefire way for Trump to hold on to the presidency. China might be a bit of a stretch, tho - maybe start off small, mongo - say, Iran or Venezuela maybe???

See that's the ticket if ya want Trump to not get reelected!

Of course, I'd have to question the sanity of anyone who would be willing to see possibly tens of thousands of lives lost just because they don't like Trump being President.

But, you all can mock me, but mark my words, when 2020 comes around and if Trump hasn't gotten us into any new wars, he'll get reelected easily. I know some of you think it's more complicated than that but it isn't.
Personally, I'd like to see everyone vote for anyone who doesn't have a (D) or an (R) after their name. If we really wanted to shake it up, we'd all just vote Libertarian. Or hell, vote Green party or Commie party or whatever, just so long as it isn't a Dem or a Rep. These two parties have had too much time in power as it is. IMO. And they've done a real bad number on the country and especially the Constitution.

warmonger1981 wrote:

riskllama wrote:yeah, US had better go to war w/someone & fast - that's a surefire way for Trump to hold on to the presidency. China might be a bit of a stretch, tho - maybe start off small, mongo - say, Iran or Venezuela maybe???

I'm just thinking this economic Warfare can heat up. Iran would be because of Israel. But Iran would have been my second pick. Venezuela is too small. We've never had no interest in South American wars. We can do that through some type of contra. Venezuela would be more of an economic deal then shooting bullets.

It's hard to wage economic warfare on the US so long as the US controls the petrodollar. We, being the only place that can legally print US dollars, is all the economic power we'll need.

However, there are nations that are trying to end that US dollar dominance. There are dollar exclusion zones, bilateral trade deals between nations that use other currencies than dollars, so on and so on. But for the most part these countries are doing this not to wage economic warfare on the US, but rather they've been forced to do so through sanctions, denial of SWIFT access and such things. Those trade agreements and dollar exclusion zones would quickly sputter out if the US simply stopped using it's economic might as a stick to batter other nations that we disagree with.

But yeah, pretty much the root of all wars are economics and resource attainment. Religion and culture are usually used as scapegoats for waging war. It's easier to get people to fight, kill and die because they are told God wants them to do it or that the enemy wants to destroy our way of life than it is to get people to fight, kill and die just to make one nation a little bit richer. Or more specifically, to make a few individuals a lot richer.

So yeah, war in the near future is a real possibility. But war with Russia or China are both no win situations for the US and them as well. That war only ends one way, and I'm still of the belief that people are sane enough to realize this or that is, the people who will be making those decisions are sane enough to realize it. The Neocons are the worst of the lot, being as I think some of them actually believe the US could win a nuclear war, however it is that one defines "winning" such a war. That's why all neocons in the Republican and Democrat parties have to be gotten rid of politically speaking of course. Can't let any of those people anywhere near such decision making. Which is probably why I'd love to see Trump sack Bolton. Or why I'm glad Albright isn't in government anymore. Those types of people. They are truly deranged and quite possibly evil.

fun reading, thanks bro.

Your talkin deep state Patches.

Mr. Roosevelt said at Boston on October 30: "I have said this before, but I shall say it again and again and again: Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." (Japanese codes broken early 30s by Herbert O Yardly, an american working for american inteligence)

Ya, Trump mentioned peace, and then went directly to Israel and kissed ass.

Americans are notoriously easy to deceive.
38 billion, attacking Israeli targets, more bombing than Bush or Obama.....

armati on Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:22 pm
".....don’t be taken in by all of the political bickering surrounding Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh"

Nothing has changed, and nothing will change with Kav being appointed, it was all for show, and the mob loved it.

Thats what was shown to the public, anyone look to see what was NOT shown(promoted) to the public?

I said at the time, the important issue was Trumps speech to the UN, did those watching Kav, anybody notice.....

US Could Launch Preemptive Military Strike Against Russia - Trump's Ambassador to NATO
Wed, Oct 3, 2018

how about this?

Trump orders US to strip $200 million in aid from Palestinians ...
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/24/politics ... index.html

hmmm, didnt he just move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem? hmmm

No war Patches? The wars will be determined by Israel, the supreme court entertainment or Trumps blathering means nothing.

Ya gotta watch what a person does, not what they say.

I agree with most of your position here Patches, particularly the political predictions in regards to elections and Trumps future influence. I would disagree on the influence this SCOTUS show will have on the outcome, I tend to believe (despite the polls) that the reps were never in nearly the amount of danger being predicted in the house long before this show. I still think they might lose a small number of seats, but I've believed throughout the entirety of 2018 that it would be another 2 years of full rep control. I'm still only 80/20 on trump getting re-elected, only because I do expect this Russia/FBI business to drag on and on. And until that actual election cycle begins, there are still too many unknowns for me to say it's a lock. In spite of all the good spin about the trade war right now, over the next 2 years some Americans that voted for him are going to be hurt by this tarrif war, and i think there is still a significant chance a change in economic outlook could turn alot of people off. Also until it becomes clear who the dems run and on what sort of patform I'm sticking to 80/20

Trump ain't gonna stop the MIC Arm, no one can do that. The $38 billion, it's just status quo. It's pretty much the same as it's always been. Here is the list of every dollar given to Israel since since 1951, the first year we gave Israel aid.
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJ7Jw ... LiOv_KF7E-


The changes I'm talking about with Kav being confirmed is a change in the political landscape. The same rules still apply, those aren't changing. Some of the players are going to change is all. Maybe I should have been more clear on that. It's not like I think the Republicans are going to all of a sudden actually start taking action of making government smaller or obeying the Constitution.

But, Arm, you are underestimating the general American public. In the media you only hear the extremists, people with an agenda, a tiny minority of very vocal individuals. The vast majority of the US citizenry aren't card carrying Republicans or Democrats, or giving a crap what the talking heads say or think, they are too busy working, providing for their families to go devoting too much worry about what the scumbag politicians and their spawn are doing. It doesn't matter who is in power, Congress' approval rating are always in the low teens. That's because the vast majority of people in the US know the politicians, both parties, are full of shit.

And yes, the hearing was a whole bunch of theater. But the US isn't going to launch a preemptive strike on Russia. That's another kind of theater except the geopolitical stage rather than the national stage.
Trump pulling funding for the Palestinians, well yeah, it's called the stick. It's part of the carrot and stick strategy and it's SOP in tough negotiations. The Palestinians are no more negotiating in good faith than the Israeli's are. In fact the Palestinians are probably a worse offending of not acting in good faith than the Israeli's, but it just seems the two sides just hate each other. It's a sticky mess

Israel can't compel the US into war. The US has in the past and will in the future slap Israel down if they go too far. Bush Sr did it. Eisonhower did it, Obama did in his typical limp wristed way, which was just Obama's way. Israel isn't getting her way in Syria, Obama almost pulled the trigger on that but who was it that stopped him? It wasn't Putin, it wasn't Russia, it was the American public. The American voter made it immensely clear that there would be hell to pay if Obama went and dragged the US formally into the Syrian' war to the point where even Obama had to accept reality that he could not trick or goad the US public into a quagmire. Maybe if he hadn't spent his political capital ruining Libya previously maybe he could have gotten away with it, but we can't know. All we do know is when Obama tried to tell the US public that Syria had "crossed the red line" the American people overwhelmingly rose up and said "we don't care, stay out of it". And Obama had no choice but to take egg on his face.

And the embassy thing, every President including Obama have said they'd move the embassy. Trump is the one who finally did what the US has been promising for decades which boils down to nothing more than the US finally acknowledging reality as Jerusalem was already the defacto capital of Israel anyway. There are certain religious factions who are basically extremist cults dedicated to manipulating events in an effort to facilitate the coming of whatever version of the Messiah they believe that may tie into this moving, but I'll pay more attention to them when the day comes they start rebuilding the temple. Till then they aren't really worth it to spend much time or effort into exposing them. I do believe in freedom of religion after all, no matter how crazy one's religious beliefs are so long as they don't try to compel me or mine into drinking their Koolaid.

I do watch what these politicians do, Arm. Closely. I've never claimed or believed that Trump could solve our problems. I don't believe problems, at least on the societal level, can actually be "solved". There can only be trade offs, never solutions. The supposed "solutions" always lead to other problems, hence the trade off. What I do see Trump doing is slowly but surely bending the political parties to his way of thinking. When he was elected there were many Republicans who were determined to oppose him, but they got the message real quick that their political lives relied on backing Trump. Now it's time for the Democrats to accept reality and start playing ball or they are going to find themselves kicked out of the playground. They are begrudgingly coming to understand this and the Kav hearings and consequences are going to hammer that reality home.

As Obama once famously said, "Elections have consequences". The Republicans have accepted this finally and the democrats are going to come around eventually as well. Israel is going to come around also, as is Europe. Will this make any difference? I have no idea. I do believe that the normal way before Trump certainly wasn't working, so I'm willing to let Trump do his thing until he gets to the point of actually violating the Constitution.
Trump is a strange animal, one should read his book, "The Art of the Deal" to get some insight. His way of doing things isn't like our career politicians like to do things.


Now, Arm, I'm being very serious now, I want you to think about something. Let us say just for shit's and giggles, that everything you say is true and that a huge majority of Americans accept your idea of reality. And let us say that the politicians, upon seeing the winds of the Public awareness growing into a storm of demands for action, and that action being forced on politicians to take, how is that going to work out?

what I mean is, wake up tomorrow the Fed is abolished, Israel is thrown out of the UN, all defensive treaties and alliances with Israel revoked, all foreign aid to Israel, nay, to everyone is cut off completely. All US military bases are outside the US are closed and all US troops abroad anywhere in the world return home, and all the other things "fixed" that you say are problems in the world, I ask.
What will the world look like then?

I see chaos. I see war, poverty, misery, death. As much as some of my countrymen annoy me, as much as some countries around the world irk me, I don't want to see my countrymen suffer. I don't want to see peoples around the world suffering. I would like you to give serious thought to how you think it'd play out in the world if everyone suddenly "woke up" to what you believe is true. I want you to seriously consider if the world would be better off if that happened or would it be worse off?
Even if everything you believe is actual reality, it doesn't matter because reality rarely ever matters in mankind's ability to survive. We'll make up any story in our heads if it helps us sleep at night or feel better or think we'll be safer. Reality, largely, is irrelevant.
The debt based monetary system for instance, I know it's bad, I know it's got flaws, serious flaws and it's unstable. But I don't know exactly what the best course of action is to take regarding that, should it be completely scrapped and a debt free monetary system, which also has flaws all of it's own, be enacted? Would that really solve anything? I have no idea. What I do know is that however badly flawed our current system is, I've found a way to flourish within it. I've found a way to survive, profit and improve my life despite the flaws in the monetary system. How much is that worth? Will I be able to say the same with a new system? I have no idea. The reality of the flawed system is irrelevant to my ability to prosper, thus I am not inclined to advocate drastic changes because I can only adapt but so fast.

It is enough for me for now that my own country stop involving ourselves in conflicts where the issues can't be solved by US bombs. Without US involvement in Syria for instance, that conflict would have been over many years ago. There wouldn't have been a flood of desperate people fleeing into Europe. I love my country, America and I don't want to see that blood on her hands. The most humane thing one can do when it comes to war is to at the very least get it over with quickly. All we have done in Syria is prolong the suffering.
If Trump can at the tiniest least not expand such things into yet more countries, I will count that as a small victory. Unfortunately, as we've dug ourselves into one hell of a hole, it seems difficult to extricate ourselves from the morasses that our past Presidents have dragged us into and the American voter is sick of it.
If Trump can change that one thing, then that is a good thing.

Believe me, if Trump goes launching wars of aggression like Obama, Bush Jr, Clinton, and Bush sr did, then yeah, I'll right right there condemning Trump like everyone else. But until I see Trump reach even close to the same level as the past couple of Presidents have then I'll be content to sit back and keep watching and remember what the Guide Book says. Don't Panic.

mookiemcgee wrote:I agree with most of your position here Patches, particularly the political predictions in regards to elections and Trumps future influence. I would disagree on the influence this SCOTUS show will have on the outcome, I tend to believe (despite the polls) that the reps were never in nearly the amount of danger being predicted in the house long before this show. I still think they might lose a small number of seats, but I've believed throughout the entirety of 2018 that it would be another 2 years of full rep control. I'm still only 80/20 on trump getting re-elected, only because I do expect this Russia/FBI business to drag on and on. And until that actual election cycle begins, there are still too many unknowns for me to say it's a lock. In spite of all the good spin about the trade war right now, over the next 2 years some Americans that voted for him are going to be hurt by this tarrif war, and i think there is still a significant chance a change in economic outlook could turn alot of people off. Also until it becomes clear who the dems run and on what sort of patform I'm sticking to 80/20

I think you are probably right about the reps never being in that bad of a position before this SCOTUS debacle. The supposed Blue Wave that was going to sweep the House was always based on polls where the question was about generalities taken a year ago. Those polls are worthless.

I do, however, think that the average voter who paid any attention to the SCOTUS hearings, are disgusted by allegations on anyone where evidence is virtually non existent. In General Americans believe in the concept of innocent until proven guilty.

If Trump drags the US into another war then he won't get reelected, period. You probably don't believe me when I say that was the most important thing he talked about during his campaign, more important than the immigration issues. Americans are not a blood thirsty people. We don't want to fight wars, we don't want to fight other people's wars. We don't want to shed or blood to replace one tyrant with a new set of tyrants. Americans in general don't want to get involved in other nation's internal struggles. We don't want to be the policemen of the world. Americans don't like bullies and we won't stand for our country being a bully if we can stop it. Americans in general want to find ways to cooperate with others, including Russia and even China. We don't want to antagonize others.

The economic outlook isn't that important. It all depends on how the Administration handles optics. For instance, FDR kept getting reelected term after term even though the country was suffering through a depression that we of today can't imagine. FDR couldn't stop the depression, he couldn't fix it, but he was trying, or at least the public perceived him as trying, and thus he wasn't punished for it politically.
Obama got reelected even though he didn't do much to really help the economy. Part of that was that American's understood it wasn't his fault the crash. Another part was there was no real viable alternative to Obama (like Romney ever had a chance, sheesh).

The American voter almost always makes the right choice. They made the right choice between McCain and Obama, it would have been a nightmare if McCain had been elected, that crazy asshole. We also made the right choice with Trump considering it was between him and Clinton. That's a no brainer. Americans aren't too fond of monarchies either, or anything that appears like a monarchy.


But you are right, there are a lot of unknowns, though at the moment the Democrats have no viable alternative to Trump. Could you imagine them trying to nominate Clinton again in 2020? You think she'd be able to beat Trump a second go around? Har, I don't see it. So the Dems better start working on elevating someone who at the moment is unknown. Someone who isn't going to cater to the extreme left, who are, let's face, a small minority of people in the US. The Dems should start getting away from the Alinsky tactics and start being a bit more honest IMO. I know, I know, hones and politics don't go together, maybe I should say "sincere"?

And the Trade War, Har! Don't even get me started on that, I'll be typing forever. suffice it to say, the talking heads say a lot of things trying to influence people's thinking. I remember, back before the Brexit vote where the talking heads said that if England voted for Brexit their entire economy would collapse overnight. Well, that didn't happen.....

Mother fuckers always got an angle, and the truth is rarely ever part of that angle.

God willing, we'll all live long enough to see how it all shakes out.

Agree with patches on DiFi. This is the woman who had a Chinese intelligence operative on her staff for 20 years while she had the highest levels of security clearance... and then has the audacity to crow about a Russia conspiracy theory. The only thing keeping her out of prison is the fact she's 90 and could plead senility in a trial making it difficult to convict.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/ ... francisco/

My company uses a lot of aluminum and wood so I got a double whammy from tariffs. Not concerned in the least. I see the big picture and it's NOT a trade war as a goal but a tool to remove barriers. The new USMCA will be in place soon enough and I expect the wood tariffs to end. Aluminum will likely stay. So be it.

saxitoxin wrote:Agree with patches on DiFi. This is the woman who had a Chinese intelligence operative on her staff for 20 years while she had the highest levels of security clearance... and then has the audacity to crow about a Russia conspiracy theory. The only thing keeping her out of prison is the fact she's 90 and could plead senility in a trial making it difficult to convict.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/ ... francisco/

Oh man, the body language expert who evaluated Feinstein at her and Schumer's FBI investigation statement, identified a massive amount of stress in her body language that had nothing to do with what she and Schumer were talking about. She is under a massive amount of pressure. I'd almost feel bad for except she brought it all on herself.

Whatever it is, the source of the stress, it bodes ill for her future in politics...

patches70 wrote:

saxitoxin wrote:Agree with patches on DiFi. This is the woman who had a Chinese intelligence operative on her staff for 20 years while she had the highest levels of security clearance... and then has the audacity to crow about a Russia conspiracy theory. The only thing keeping her out of prison is the fact she's 90 and could plead senility in a trial making it difficult to convict.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/ ... francisco/

Oh man, the body language expert who evaluated Feinstein at her and Schumer's FBI investigation statement, identified a massive amount of stress in her body language that had nothing to do with what she and Schumer were talking about. She is under a massive amount of pressure. I'd almost feel bad for except she brought it all on herself.

Whatever it is, the source of the stress, it bodes ill for her future in politics...

At her age the only office she'll be running for in the future is Cryptkeeper. Then the Democrats will need to find a new 1000 year old to galvanize the Gen Z vote for them.

What is it with right wingers writing long essays about Trump (formerly Bush) derangement syndrome? Is it a form of self-diagnosis? Projection, perhaps?

patches70 wrote:

mookiemcgee wrote:I agree with most of your position here Patches, particularly the political predictions in regards to elections and Trumps future influence. I would disagree on the influence this SCOTUS show will have on the outcome, I tend to believe (despite the polls) that the reps were never in nearly the amount of danger being predicted in the house long before this show. I still think they might lose a small number of seats, but I've believed throughout the entirety of 2018 that it would be another 2 years of full rep control. I'm still only 80/20 on trump getting re-elected, only because I do expect this Russia/FBI business to drag on and on. And until that actual election cycle begins, there are still too many unknowns for me to say it's a lock. In spite of all the good spin about the trade war right now, over the next 2 years some Americans that voted for him are going to be hurt by this tarrif war, and i think there is still a significant chance a change in economic outlook could turn alot of people off. Also until it becomes clear who the dems run and on what sort of patform I'm sticking to 80/20

I think you are probably right about the reps never being in that bad of a position before this SCOTUS debacle. The supposed Blue Wave that was going to sweep the House was always based on polls where the question was about generalities taken a year ago. Those polls are worthless.

I do, however, think that the average voter who paid any attention to the SCOTUS hearings, are disgusted by allegations on anyone where evidence is virtually non existent. In General Americans believe in the concept of innocent until proven guilty.

If Trump drags the US into another war then he won't get reelected, period. You probably don't believe me when I say that was the most important thing he talked about during his campaign, more important than the immigration issues. Americans are not a blood thirsty people. We don't want to fight wars, we don't want to fight other people's wars. We don't want to shed or blood to replace one tyrant with a new set of tyrants. Americans in general don't want to get involved in other nation's internal struggles. We don't want to be the policemen of the world. Americans don't like bullies and we won't stand for our country being a bully if we can stop it. Americans in general want to find ways to cooperate with others, including Russia and even China. We don't want to antagonize others.

The economic outlook isn't that important. It all depends on how the Administration handles optics. For instance, FDR kept getting reelected term after term even though the country was suffering through a depression that we of today can't imagine. FDR couldn't stop the depression, he couldn't fix it, but he was trying, or at least the public perceived him as trying, and thus he wasn't punished for it politically.
Obama got reelected even though he didn't do much to really help the economy. Part of that was that American's understood it wasn't his fault the crash. Another part was there was no real viable alternative to Obama (like Romney ever had a chance, sheesh).

The American voter almost always makes the right choice. They made the right choice between McCain and Obama, it would have been a nightmare if McCain had been elected, that crazy asshole. We also made the right choice with Trump considering it was between him and Clinton. That's a no brainer. Americans aren't too fond of monarchies either, or anything that appears like a monarchy.


But you are right, there are a lot of unknowns, though at the moment the Democrats have no viable alternative to Trump. Could you imagine them trying to nominate Clinton again in 2020? You think she'd be able to beat Trump a second go around? Har, I don't see it. So the Dems better start working on elevating someone who at the moment is unknown. Someone who isn't going to cater to the extreme left, who are, let's face, a small minority of people in the US. The Dems should start getting away from the Alinsky tactics and start being a bit more honest IMO. I know, I know, hones and politics don't go together, maybe I should say "sincere"?

And the Trade War, Har! Don't even get me started on that, I'll be typing forever. suffice it to say, the talking heads say a lot of things trying to influence people's thinking. I remember, back before the Brexit vote where the talking heads said that if England voted for Brexit their entire economy would collapse overnight. Well, that didn't happen.....

Mother fuckers always got an angle, and the truth is rarely ever part of that angle.

God willing, we'll all live long enough to see how it all shakes out.

I tend to believe that if trump enters a war it would have the opposite effect, and that it would virtually guarantee his re-election. I think back to how ineffectual Bush 2 was, and how right out of the gate a blue wave was predicted. Then 9-11 happened and he was guaranteed re-election. People don't like to change the plan right after wars start up. they like to change things after one guys has a fair chance to end the way (because they all say they will do this)

So basically if 9 months before the election trumps starts a war, and their is at least a resonable spin he can put on it I think even if many Americans didn't want the war and don't agree with it, they would still re-elect just to keep the same general in power. Now I could be wrong, and a whole lot of people want trump running their economy, but dont want him near a nuke button. But Trump will never run for anything ever again, so he just needs re-election and then he's done, and I think if he feels a war would cement that victory he will do it.

As far as dem nominations, I would say there is less than 1% chance hillary runs. No one want her to run right now except the Trump white house lol. I would say there is a 50% Biden is the nom, 20% chance it's bernie, and my other 30% goes to "the field of unknowns". I can't see any of them winning, but I would give Biden by far the best chance of anyone who's name we've actually heard before. I have mixed feelings about even putting this out there, but Michael Bloomberg has the best chance of any Dem to win the presidency at this juncture IMO

mookiemcgee wrote:[
I tend to believe that if trump enters a war it would have the opposite effect, and that it would virtually guarantee his re-election.

That is the conventional wisdom, yes, but Trump isn't conventional. What was, for lack of a better word, "normal" no longer can be counted on, times they are a changing. IMO. We'll see though in the fullness of time.

Good comments and discussion, mook!

As spurgistan says, "a fun read", but I cant agree with everything Patches.

I agree with mookiemcgee,
Americans seem to love presidents that go to war, even when those like FDR that repeatedly promise otherwise.
(a lying pres is nutin new)

As for creating chaos if the american troops went home, totally disagree, why would there be chaos?

I think thats exactly what needs to happen, and it will, either by choice or force.

They will run out of money, 21 trillion in debt now, or the world will drop the dollar, in the process now.

Returning the troops in an orderly fashion would be far more preferable than any alternative.

can somebody give me a tl;dr version? preferably in gif form

Neoteny wrote:

DoomYoshi wrote:can somebody give me a tl;dr version? preferably in gif form

Only way that story could've been better is if it was a professor of journalism.

With the unemployment rate at 3.7% Trump is squarely looking to return the African-American vote to the party of Lincoln. It's in the cards. Historic if it happens.

HitRed wrote:Normally loosing The White House, Senate, House of Rep., The Supreem Court and most Govern-ships should cause change in the loosing party. With the unemployment rate at 3.7% Trump is squarely looking to return the African-American vote to the party of Lincoln. Its in the cards. Historic if it happens.

That was a deeply dishonest post.