Conquer Club

Conquer Club successfully predicted Donald Trump would become President of North America.

Now, who will become President of South Belgium?

Hahaha! "South Belgium".

Hilarious.

If you would, saxi, I am unfamiliar with the candidates. My first reaction is that anyone would be better than that really short guy that's in there now, what's his name, Holler or something like that?

The few bits I get Pen is that she's the devil.
I think I've heard of the Fillet guy, but I ain't never heard of the rest of them.

Who should I vote for saxi?

Or perhaps give a short summary of each candidate in good ole saxi fashion to assist my opinion.

Benoît Hamon is the Bernie Sanders of France, currently polling around 15%.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is Bernie Sanders on Steroids, currently polling around 10%.

François Fillon is the mainstream conservative candidate who seemed like a lock for the second round but has recently become embroiled in a scandal over allegations he used government money to pay his wife (or maybe it was his mistress, I think all French politicians have one of each) for a non-existent job. He's running like 25% in the polls.

Emmanuel Macron is a popular centrist candidate, but is running as an independent so lacks party support. He's hitting around 25% in the polls.

Marine Le Pen is the reincarnation of Philipe Pétain. Conventional wisdom is she'll make it to the second round but then lose big time as all of France coalesces against her. She's just above 25% - like 27% or so - in the polls.

===
Conventional Wisdom Scenario 1, pre-Fillon scandal

- Fillon and Le Pen win the first round.
- All of France rallies to Fillon who beats Le Pen.

===
Conventional Wisdom Scenario 2, post-Fillon scandal

- Some moderate Socialist voters who find Hamon too radical defect to Macron. Republican voters upset with Fillon's scandal also bolt to Macron.
- Macron and Le Pen win the first round.
- All of France rallies to Macron who beats Le Pen.

===
Saxi's prediction

- Some moderate Socialist voters who find Hamon too radical defect to Macron, but fewer than anticipated. Republican voters upset with Fillon's scandal also bolt to Macros.
- Hamon promises big concessions to Mélenchon and forms an alliances that is able to capture second place.
- In the general election it's Hamon vs. Le Pen. Unlike Chirac vs Le Pen in 2002 people aren't left with a choice of a right-wing or a far-right candidate, but a left or far-right, which changes the dynamics and forces some Republican voters to the National Front. Plus, by the time the second round arrives, France will be overdue for their semi-annual mass-casualty terrorist attack. Le Pen ekes out a win.

I'll have to defer to your expertise on this. I think if Le Pen gets elected it would make for interesting times, though. I guess I'll cheer for interesting times over boring days.

Now, if Le Pen is the reincarnation of Petain, does that mean she'll just surrender to Merkel? Collaborate with Germany, i.e. be their sock puppet?

That's a sight, Merkel's hand stuffed up Le Pen's ass wagging her mouth like a wooden dummy.

patches70 wrote:I'll have to defer to your expertise on this. I think if Le Pen gets elected it would make for interesting times, though. I guess I'll cheer for interesting times over boring days.

Now, if Le Pen is the reincarnation of Petain, does that mean she'll just surrender to Merkel? Collaborate with Germany, i.e. be their sock puppet?

That's a sight, Merkel's hand stuffed up Le Pen's ass wagging her mouth like a wooden dummy.

Le Pen is pretty anti-EU. She wouldn't be interested in Germany and Merkel. She's closer to Trump and Farage. Stongly nationalist.

Symmetry wrote:

patches70 wrote:I'll have to defer to your expertise on this. I think if Le Pen gets elected it would make for interesting times, though. I guess I'll cheer for interesting times over boring days.

Now, if Le Pen is the reincarnation of Petain, does that mean she'll just surrender to Merkel? Collaborate with Germany, i.e. be their sock puppet?

That's a sight, Merkel's hand stuffed up Le Pen's ass wagging her mouth like a wooden dummy.

Le Pen is pretty anti-EU. She wouldn't be interested in Germany and Merkel. She's closer to Trump and Farage. Stongly nationalist.

I know dude, I was just making a joke.

Le Pen wins and Germany will be stuck in a vise between France and Russia and will have no choice but to begin rearming.

patches70 wrote:

Symmetry wrote:

patches70 wrote:I'll have to defer to your expertise on this. I think if Le Pen gets elected it would make for interesting times, though. I guess I'll cheer for interesting times over boring days.

Now, if Le Pen is the reincarnation of Petain, does that mean she'll just surrender to Merkel? Collaborate with Germany, i.e. be their sock puppet?

That's a sight, Merkel's hand stuffed up Le Pen's ass wagging her mouth like a wooden dummy.

Le Pen is pretty anti-EU. She wouldn't be interested in Germany and Merkel. She's closer to Trump and Farage. Stongly nationalist.

I know dude, I was just making a joke.

It was certainly an interesting attempt.

saxitoxin wrote:Le Pen wins and Germany will be stuck in a vise between France and Russia and will have no choice but to begin rearming.

My how the times have changed. We all got that chain email many a year ago.
Reasons the world is Fucked
The best golfer is black
The best rapper is white
The French are calling the Americans arrogant
AND
The germans don't want to go to war.

BoganGod wrote:

saxitoxin wrote:Le Pen wins and Germany will be stuck in a vise between France and Russia and will have no choice but to begin rearming.

My how the times have changed. We all got that chain email many a year ago.
Reasons the world is Fucked
The best golfer is black
The best rapper is white
The French are calling the Americans arrogant
AND
The germans don't want to go to war.

Did people have e-mails a century ago?

Someone doesn't know how to read the poll options and only voted for one option. I bet a nickel to a doughnut it was sym who only voted for one.
Any takers?

The directions clearly state "You MAY select....", not "Fooking pick two or none, moron"

France is making a fool of itself. Bet the French military rifles are gonna be on sale cheap again....the ones that say "Never fired! Only dropped once!!"

KoolBak wrote:The directions clearly state "You MAY select....", not "Fooking pick two or none, moron"

Also, I haven't voted at all in the poll.

saxitoxin wrote:Le Pen wins and Germany will be stuck in a vise between France and Russia and will have no choice but to begin rearming.

Maybe they should consider annexing the Sudetenland. Or invade Poland and use it as a buffer, give them some liebensraum.

saxitoxin wrote:Benoît Hamon is the Bernie Sanders of France, currently polling around 15%.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is Bernie Sanders on Steroids, currently polling around 10%.

François Fillon is the mainstream conservative candidate who seemed like a lock for the second round but has recently become embroiled in a scandal over allegations he used government money to pay his wife (or maybe it was his mistress, I think all French politicians have one of each) for a non-existent job. He's running like 25% in the polls.

Emmanuel Macron is a popular centrist candidate, but is running as an independent so lacks party support. He's hitting around 25% in the polls.

Marine Le Pen is the reincarnation of Philipe Pétain. Conventional wisdom is she'll make it to the second round but then lose big time as all of France coalesces against her. She's just above 25% - like 27% or so - in the polls.

===
Conventional Wisdom Scenario 1, pre-Fillon scandal

- Fillon and Le Pen win the first round.
- All of France rallies to Fillon who beats Le Pen.

===
Conventional Wisdom Scenario 2, post-Fillon scandal

- Some moderate Socialist voters who find Hamon too radical defect to Macron. Republican voters upset with Fillon's scandal also bolt to Macron.
- Macron and Le Pen win the first round.
- All of France rallies to Macron who beats Le Pen.

===
Saxi's prediction

- Some moderate Socialist voters who find Hamon too radical defect to Macron, but fewer than anticipated. Republican voters upset with Fillon's scandal also bolt to Macros.
- Hamon promises big concessions to Mélenchon and forms an alliances that is able to capture second place.
- In the general election it's Hamon vs. Le Pen. Unlike Chirac vs Le Pen in 2002 people aren't left with a choice of a right-wing or a far-right candidate, but a left or far-right, which changes the dynamics and forces some Republican voters to the National Front. Plus, by the time the second round arrives, France will be overdue for their semi-annual mass-casualty terrorist attack. Le Pen ekes out a win.

My prediction is pretty much your scenario 2 saxi... as per today. A month ago Fillon would ve won by a landslide. Who knows what deus ex machina is bond to happen.
I would ve voted for fillon and i m probably moving to macron. Although "les republicains" will probably fight back removing fillon (replacing him with Juppé who finished second in the primaries?).
Melanchon will have more votes than Hamon. In the socialist primaries, it was pretty much valls=macron and hamon=melanchon.
Anyways, they definitely should ally but i don t see this happening given how unsubmissive melanchon is.
Anyways, you might have Le Pen finishing first in the first round, but there is no way she could get even close to 50%, unless she faces melanchon maybe.
Melanchon and Hamon forming an alliance is definitely the right and only move cause they will never finish fisrt or second on the first round.
I give you a good grade for your scenarios and prediction saxi. A very good analysis of what could actually happen. But you know, in french elections you never know what is the next scandal the press will dig out.
In 2011 everbody was sure DSK would become president then he used his willie the wrong way in a NY hotel.
Anyways, pretty sure that filthy Putin has some other strings to pull to make le pen win.

KoolBak wrote:The directions clearly state "You MAY select....", not "Fooking pick two or none, moron"

France is making a fool of itself. Bet the French military rifles are gonna be on sale cheap again....the ones that say "Never fired! Only dropped once!!"

Pretty much the only dumbass making a fool of himself here is you... 2 candidates win the first round and then go on a face to face. I think you got lost while you were searching for your favorite "get drunk with my pickup and go shoot stuff" thread. You can take patches with you!

betiko wrote:

KoolBak wrote:The directions clearly state "You MAY select....", not "Fooking pick two or none, moron"

France is making a fool of itself. Bet the French military rifles are gonna be on sale cheap again....the ones that say "Never fired! Only dropped once!!"

Pretty much the only dumbass making a fool of himself here is you... 2 candidates win the first round and then go on a face to face. I think you got lost while you were searching for your favorite "get drunk with my pickup and go shoot stuff" thread. You can take patches with you!

No, kid, you've gotten muddled up. The poll is a separate issue from that of French foreign policy.

notyou2 wrote:

saxitoxin wrote:Le Pen wins and Germany will be stuck in a vise between France and Russia and will have no choice but to begin rearming.

Maybe they should consider annexing the Sudetenland. Or invade Poland and use it as a buffer, give them some liebensraum.

Loooool! Did you purposely misspell Lebensraum? Because Liebensraum would translate to "love space".

On-topic: I hope Macron wins. Pro-EU, pragmatist(basically what France needs right now), and someone who believes in a Pan-european nationalism that can thrive alongside the local french nationalism.

waauw wrote:

notyou2 wrote:

saxitoxin wrote:Le Pen wins and Germany will be stuck in a vise between France and Russia and will have no choice but to begin rearming.

Maybe they should consider annexing the Sudetenland. Or invade Poland and use it as a buffer, give them some liebensraum.

Loooool! Did you purposely misspell Lebensraum? Because Liebensraum would translate to "love space".

waauw wrote:

notyou2 wrote:

saxitoxin wrote:Le Pen wins and Germany will be stuck in a vise between France and Russia and will have no choice but to begin rearming.

Maybe they should consider annexing the Sudetenland. Or invade Poland and use it as a buffer, give them some liebensraum.

Loooool! Did you purposely misspell Lebensraum? Because Liebensraum would translate to "love space".

On-topic: I hope Macron wins. Pro-EU, pragmatist(basically what France needs right now), and someone who believes in a Pan-european nationalism that can thrive alongside the local french nationalism.

Macron or Fillon... even after the scandal I d rather see him in power. (there is a research done on his wife's supposed work and it's still unclear if she really was making a parliament assistant job for him, she was paid 5000€ per month for it)
The other 3 are all tragic. Really. Facepalm options trump style.
If at least Valls was leading the socialist party.. but now with Hamon it's lalaland where money grows on trees and ideas of working little, tax the rich only and guaranteed 800€ a month for ball scratching for everyone.
Fucking idiots voting for this type of candidates seriously..
anyways... as I said, i would ve voted for Fillon but I'm switching to Macron with what happpened. Macron reminds me of Rivera from Ciudadanos here in Spain. Both in their late 30's, not willing to be defined as left or right and with new ideas of how to run a country. Too bad Rivera didn t win in Spain. Macron has a real chance given the actual landscape.

betiko wrote:

waauw wrote:

notyou2 wrote:

saxitoxin wrote:Le Pen wins and Germany will be stuck in a vise between France and Russia and will have no choice but to begin rearming.

Maybe they should consider annexing the Sudetenland. Or invade Poland and use it as a buffer, give them some liebensraum.

Loooool! Did you purposely misspell Lebensraum? Because Liebensraum would translate to "love space".

On-topic: I hope Macron wins. Pro-EU, pragmatist(basically what France needs right now), and someone who believes in a Pan-european nationalism that can thrive alongside the local french nationalism.

Macron or Fillon... even after the scandal I d rather see him in power. (there is a research done on his wife's supposed work and it's still unclear if she really was making a parliament assistant job for him, she was paid 5000€ per month for it)
The other 3 are all tragic. Really. Facepalm options trump style.
If at least Valls was leading the socialist party.. but now with Hamon it's lalaland where money grows on trees and ideas of working little, tax the rich only and guaranteed 800€ a month for ball scratching for everyone.
Fucking idiots voting for this type of candidates seriously..
anyways... as I said, i would ve voted for Fillon but I'm switching to Macron with what happpened. Macron reminds me of Rivera from Ciudadanos here in Spain. Both in their late 30's, not willing to be defined as left or right and with new ideas of how to run a country. Too bad Rivera didn t win in Spain. Macron has a real chance given the actual landscape.

Completely agree with you. It does make me wonder however, if he wins the elections, will it inspire him to actually start a centrist party? There doesn't seem to be a more opportune moment.

Bayrou has already created a centrist party since about 10 years. He knows he stands no chance this year, and he basically joined Juppé from the republicans during the primaries of that party. Since Fillon, more conservative than Juppé, won, Bayrou and the centrists are not joining the republicans. (even less with the actual Fillon scandal)
Bayrou is now most likely going to join Macron.

When there are french elections I always check the belgian newspaper le soir because they are allowed to give the results before the french media haha

LATEST POLLING ...

1. LEPEN - 26%
2. MACRON - 21%
3. FILLON - 19%
4. HAMON - 16%
5. MELENCHON - 10%
6. BAYROU - 4%
7. ALL OTHERS - 2%

http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/v ... 2-2017.pdf

Mélenchon is using a hologram to campaign -

saxitoxin wrote:LATEST POLLING ...

1. LEPEN - 26%
2. MACRON - 21%
3. FILLON - 19%
4. HAMON - 16%
5. MELENCHON - 10%
6. BAYROU - 4%
7. ALL OTHERS - 2%

http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/v ... 2-2017.pdf

MELENCHON and HAMON still discussing an alliance.

http://www.lci.fr/elections/melenchon-h ... 24828.html

If they allied and kept 82% of each others voters they would beat Macron and advance to the final round to face LePen, setting up a potential LePen victory.